Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Dont they realize its all just snake oil??

Yes but my point is, these symptoms don't seem so severe. If I have a runny nose I'm not going to immediately think "I have Covid!", in the same way that if I had a sudden cough that won't stop. Perhaps the way they are messaging it is confusing, but we are certainly seeing less / zero stories in the media about people not being able to breathe, or being knocked for six for a week.

How many of the 700+ are actually sick?

You would expect all these numbers to increase , then eventually plateau and then start to drop . However , i don't think we have the appetite to do that.

Their hospital numbers are not running away. They also have 1200+ hospitals

For comparison (again) - UK v Ireland - we're making great progress. I can see us passing the UK by end of month or early Aug.

UK | Ireland

Vaccinated (fully + partially): 67% | 57%

Fully Vaccinated: : 51% | 43%

Partially Vaccinated: 16% | 14%

No, we don't. Because it's a big gamble. On the watching threads, I've always been a big pusher of the fact that infections have to plateau one way or another. Infections are a pyramid scheme, and eventually you run out of suckers. But the number of suckers is determined by the restrictions that are in place. The UK is in a bad place, and is adding more suckers to the pyramid on Monday.

So we have no actual idea where the plateau will be. Will it be half the last peak? Twice the last peak? Nobody knows.

At current rates, the UK will have about 18,000 people in hospital by mid-August. That's about half the last peak. As I say above, nobody knows where the peak is this time because they'll have exposed their entire population to it. So by mid-September, the UK hospital system could be on the verge of collapse, or hospital numbers could be solidly dropping.

It is that unknown and that big a gamble.

Only if you are in the high risk groups. Anyone else is likely to be optional, like a flu jab.

HSE linking up with dating apps to get the vaccination message across!

"The HSE said the aim is to encourage users of these dating apps to support and receive their Covid-19 vaccine when it is offered to them."

Also a new HSE pitch!

Theoretically they can. But vaccines are like birth control. There's the tested and quantified effectiveness, and then there's the real-world effectiveness. Let's do some rough, back-of-envelope calculations:

Let's assume two-dose effectiveness is 90%, and one-dose effectiveness is 80%. When I say "effectiveness" I mean the percentage of vaccinated people who, when infected, will annihilate it in a few hours, be completely asymptomatic, and therefore for all intents and purposes cannot pass on the infection.

In the UK, you have 35,155,767 people fully vaxxed and another ~11m with one dose. That gives us about 5.7m vaccinated people who may become infected/infectious. You also have 22m other people who are not vaccinated at all. So ~27m people who may become infected. Which is a very big well of "suckers" for the virus to burn through.

The only way for the UK to offset what they're about to do would be to accelerate their vaccination programme. They have in fact done the opposite, it has slowed down to the point that we are vaccination nearly ten times faster than they are.

This is slightly separate from what we're talking about though. Yes, our hospital system is fairly poor and capacity is atrocious. And thus we have less ability to accommodate a surge. At peak, we were bursting at the seams with 2,000 covid patients in hospital, while proportionately the UK had 50% more in hospital. They were also bursting at the seams, but at that level, we'd have completely collapsed; makeshift field hospitals in car parks, etc.

On the topic of what we were discussing though, the UK is sitting on a potential surge that would have more covid cases than they've seen in the entire rest of the pandemic. And they're not doing anything about it. The same goes for a lot of US states.

Cases yes . They are manageable for the US. And the UK experts feel like they will be manageable aswel. However, our threshold is way lower due to the HSE. The truth is it was barely able to manage pre Covid . We will probably need close to all our adults vaccinated before we have our 'Freedom Day'. The only issue with that is it will be in Autumn/Winter. There will be no risk taken then . So probably thinking April 2022. Then the boosters will be needed. Thats the reality we are facing.

Its not Boris who is ploughing ahead though . Its their public health experts who are saying they are in a position to do so . I will have to take their expertise on it until proven otherwise .

Update on hospital numbers

Would be interesting to know of all those 80 in hospital ended up in hospital because of their covid symptoms or if they attended hospital and happened to test positive while there. As far as I know everybody who is admitted to hospital is tested so say 1000 people a day are admitted to hospital here surely some would happen to have covid especially now as cases are increasing. Maybe these people aren't included in the figures at all but would be interesting to know either way.

This guy can’t be for real? Needs a pint I’d say