Lions Tour

De Jager tests positive for Covid. That's a problem.

It's a problem in that they have stood down training for the second time in two weeks. Hopefully it's an isolated incident (if that's even possible given it's the second one) but clearly it wouldn't take too much to go wrong from here to ruin the whole tour.

You can postpone a few football or rugby games and make it up over the course of a season or even have a few games awarded to teams if it comes to it as we have seen. That won't work with the test matches though, they either happen when they're scheduled to or they don't, in which case the whole thing falls apart.

Former Former Former wrote: »

He's right. 3 people out of 30 who are fully vaccinated would be very, very high.

Maybe they're only in the middle of the vaccination and don't have full immunity yet.

Would it be though? 90% efficacy means 10% inefficacy. 30 players x 10% = 3 players. Or am I missing something? Is vaccine supposed to be higher than 90%??

swiwi_ wrote: »

Would it be though? 90% efficacy means 10% inefficacy. 30 players x 10% = 3 players. Or am I missing something? Is vaccine supposed to be higher than 90%??

Yes, efficacy is calculated compared to unvaccinated (or control) arm.

Three out of thirty is 90% efficacy only if all 30 in an identical unvaccinated group would get it, but we know Covid isn't THAT infectious.

If they are all two weeks past their second dose of an mRNA vaccine, then something has gone wrong.

sydthebeat wrote: »

The vaccines do not provide wide spread sterilising immunity, even less so for delta. They are excellent at reducing the effects to near zero, but people will still test positive if they catch it.

The 3 people in a group of 30 are in a isolating bubble yes, but the delta variant is rampant in the country. Perhaps the bubble isn't as secure as they think.

That's not the case. The initial studies only focused on symptomatic disease so they couldn't claim efficacy against transmission but follow up studies showed that the mRNA vaccines are almost equally effective against actually catching the virus.

Most likely is the Boks just didn't vaccinate early enough so they don't have full immunity.

Edit : here's the study. It predates the Delta variant but the theory is the same.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm?s_cid=mm7013e3_w

Former Former Former wrote: »

There's something not right here.

Those numbers don't make sense.

Plus, if they're going into isolation as close contacts, despite all being vaccinated, then they're out of step with the entire world.

They're not vaccinated, is my guess.

What do you mean by this? Close contacts here in the UK have to isolate regardless of whether they're fully vaccinated or not.

Also, you're more likely to catch the delta variant despite vaccination, though you're still protected from serious illness. Anecdotally I know 3 people who have recently had it despite being double vaccinated.

Bazzo wrote: »

What do you mean by this? Close contacts here in the UK have to isolate regardless of whether they're fully vaccinated or not.

This is a fair point, I've no idea what the local regs are in South Africa.

However, in most countries, if you are fully vaccinated, ie 14 days past your second dose, you do not need to isolate if you are a close contact. All the signs point to the Boks not being at this point yet, but maybe the SA requirements just oblige them to isolate regardless.

The UK are a complete outlier in everything Covid related. And not in a good way.

https://twitter.com/RuaidhriOC/status/1412355889261072390?s=19

sullivlo wrote: »

Cases in the bulls, who the Lions are meant to play on Saturday…

I wonder if SA struggles to name a squad for the Georgia game and The Bulls game is in doubt could a hot swap be done and bring Georgia to play the Lions instead on Saturday.

The tour should really be moved to the UK asap. Full crowds by the time the tests roll around..

I’ve mentioned in here a few times I’m a huge Lions fan.. but that game at the weekend did very little for me. They need to bring it to the UK for a bit of atmosphere.

If games start getting cancelled I'm going to lose interest in this tour.

Lions tours without the non-test games lose something pretty big IMO.

I know the test series is the main event, but I absolutely love the provincial games and the selection debates and the build up.

TRC10 wrote: »

If games start getting cancelled I'm going to lose interest in this tour.

Lions tours without the non-test games lose something pretty big IMO.

I know the test series is the main event, but I absolutely love the provincial games and the selection debates and the build up.

I don’t know whether it was the empty stadium but the warm up match did very little for me. Maybe it’s because I didn’t recognise pretty much any of the names playing for the Sigma Lions, they were also really poor I thought. Usually in the provincial games you have a few established names (more in NZ case) on the edge of the national teams, I don’t think this will be the case in any of these games. I expect the Lions to ease to victory in all their warm up games.

Boscoirl wrote: »

For me it was the fact that there was no Irish in the starting 15. At the end of the day my interest in the lions is to see the Irish do well.

That and the Kilkenny v Wexford game was a bit of a cracker

The downside of the game tomorrow night is that it clashes with the Football. Would imagine my local will be showing it over the rugby.

Doesnt it kick off 2 hours before the football? It makes for a perfect evening in the pub.