Off Topic Thread 5.0

irishbucsfan · 29-06-2021 08:47PM

Polling doesn’t support the idea there’s high vaccine hesitancy anyway.

And we’re at 60+% with a vaccine and still only registering 35+ year olds, so there’s clearly strong interest.

If it takes some sort of hospitality pass coupled with the travel certificate system to convince these people to protect themselves and those around them then maybe that’s for the best

Shaka Hislop · 29-06-2021 09:09PM

stephen_n wrote: »

Well that’s not factual, that’s anecdotal. I barely know anyone who is not taking it. The only data I have seen so far suggests we have one of the highest uptakes in Europe. With up to 90% of the eligible cohorts down to 50 years old taking the vaccine. I kept hearing stories that the over 60’s weren’t taking it, yet 90% of them did. So with this, I’ll believe it when I see the data to back it up.

Would you like me to name names or something?!

swiwi_ · 29-06-2021 09:12PM

Richie_Rich89 wrote: »

I don't think I'll bother with the vaccine.

Sure you will

9. Gibson Park
10. Sexton
11. Lowe
12. Henshaw
13. Pfizer vaccine
14. Larmour
15. Keenan

Neil3030 · 29-06-2021 09:14PM

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Polling doesn’t support the idea there’s high vaccine hesitancy anyway.

And we’re at 60+% with a vaccine and still only registering 35+ year olds, so there’s clearly strong interest.

If it takes some sort of hospitality pass coupled with the travel certificate system to convince these people to protect themselves and those around them then maybe that’s for the best

Ooooh. I like it IBF.

"Hospitality pass, or a Hospital pass, which do you want"?

Sell that to the HSE's PR department and send me my 10%.

mfceiling · 29-06-2021 09:18PM

I was in a hotel on Saturday night past and it was lovely to be back to a kind of normality. Restaurant was packed, tables nicely distanced and people using their masks to leave the table or go to the bathroom.
I just hope to god that in 2 weeks time we don't get another fresh restriction. The hospitality industry must be on their knees at this stage.

I've also booked a holiday for the 3rd week in August. Flights and accommodation are refundable or transferable so no real risk. Need something to look forward to after nearly 2 years of this.

pickarooney · 29-06-2021 09:22PM

mfceiling wrote: »

I was in a hotel on Saturday night past and it was lovely to be back to a kind of normality. Restaurant was packed, tables nicely distanced and people using their masks to leave the table or go to the bathroom.
I just hope to god that in 2 weeks time we don't get another fresh restriction. The hospitality industry must be on their knees at this stage.

I've also booked a holiday for the 3rd week in August. Flights and accommodation are refundable or transferable so no real risk. Need something to look forward to after nearly 2 years of this.

Where are you off to?

Neil3030 · 29-06-2021 09:22PM

Dave_The_Sheep wrote: »

I don't know a single person who doesn't intend to.

Well they surely have greatest incentive! :pac:

molloyjh · 29-06-2021 09:30PM

Shaka Hislop wrote: »

Would you like me to name names or something?!

Unless you can list enough names to be statistically significant I really don't think there's any point, is there? Stephen is basically saying you don't have national data that can back up what you are saying. A few names wouldn't change that.

Shaka Hislop · 29-06-2021 09:37PM

molloyjh wrote: »

Unless you can list enough names to be statistically significant I really don't think there's any point, is there? Stephen is basically saying you don't have national data that can back up what you are saying. A few names wouldn't change that.

You can't prove a negative though.
There have been studies by NUIG showing 10% hesitancy, up to 20% in younger women.
Orla Muldoon in The Times had an article saying that vaccine hesitancy was looking to be an issue with only 50% of people believing what the HSE & the government were telling us about vaccines.
We can't know the full non -vaccinated numbers until the vaccination program is finished, but I wouldn't be as unwaveringly positive as some of you

mfceiling · 29-06-2021 10:08PM

pickarooney wrote: »

Where are you off to?

Santorini.

pickarooney · 29-06-2021 10:26PM

mfceiling wrote: »

Santorini.

Noice

stephen_n · 29-06-2021 10:28PM

Shaka Hislop wrote: »

You can't prove a negative though.
There have been studies by NUIG showing 10% hesitancy, up to 20% in younger women.
Orla Muldoon in The Times had an article saying that vaccine hesitancy was looking to be an issue with only 50% of people believing what the HSE & the government were telling us about vaccines.
We can't know the full non -vaccinated numbers until the vaccination program is finished, but I wouldn't be as unwaveringly positive as some of you

Over 80 years of age, 98 per cent of eligible people have taken it; 70-79 year olds took it in their droves, 95 per cent; 60-69 year olds – we were worried because it was the AstraZeneca vaccine – almost 90 per cent uptake,” he said. “And so it is with 50-59 years olds, and so on right down.”

That’s from the Times, the official data for uptake. So whatever Orla Muldoon is basing her opinion on. It is not supported by evidence.

Though that would suggest there may well be a 10% hesitancy. Anything from 80% up should guarantee herd immunity. So 10% of people excluding themselves won’t be a huge issue. Except of course for their socializing I would imagine.

29-06-2021 11:48PM

A Quiet Place 2 is very enjoyable. Two excellent films.

molloyjh · 29-06-2021 11:58PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A Quiet Place 2 is very enjoyable. Two excellent films.

Looking forward to seeing that one all right.

molloyjh · 30-06-2021 12:03AM

Shaka Hislop wrote: »

You can't prove a negative though.
There have been studies by NUIG showing 10% hesitancy, up to 20% in younger women.
Orla Muldoon in The Times had an article saying that vaccine hesitancy was looking to be an issue with only 50% of people believing what the HSE & the government were telling us about vaccines.
We can't know the full non -vaccinated numbers until the vaccination program is finished, but I wouldn't be as unwaveringly positive as some of you

10% hesitancy is tiny. Mainly because hesitancy doesn't mean a hard and fast no. Some of those will take the vaccine.

The young women thing is a known. The impacts on pregnancies and reproductive health are unknown, which will clearly have a big impact on uptake, at least until more data has been compiled and the i.pacts of the vaccine become known for that cohort.

There isn't much in those 2 figures to make anyone raise an eyebrow. I've no idea where Orla Muldoons got her figures, but it doesn't tally with the uptake we've seen to date or those NUIG figures. We're over 40% now on their first jab and have ony just started on people in their 30s. We're doing fine by all available metrics.

sydthebeat · 30-06-2021 12:11AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A Quiet Place 2 is very enjoyable. Two excellent films.

Slightly less tentative than the first, but a great middle to the story.

30-06-2021 12:39AM

sydthebeat wrote: »

Slightly less tentative than the first, but a great middle to the story.

Opening 10 minutes were phenomenal.

sydthebeat · 30-06-2021 01:19AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Opening 10 minutes were phenomenal.

Something I think they can expand on in the third chapter

30-06-2021 08:59AM

Found this a useful read in relation to the delta variant and why there is still a high level of concern.

https://twitter.com/CillianDeGascun/status/1410007665258946566

awec · 30-06-2021 09:19AM

What's interesting about this delay is that we have an excellent control case in NI that will show us whether or not NPHETs modelling is in any way accurate.

If NPHET are correct, things in NI are going to get very grim over the next few months. I will watch with interest.

irishbucsfan · 30-06-2021 09:27AM

awec wrote: »

What's interesting about this delay is that we have an excellent control case in NI that will show us whether or not NPHETs modelling is in any way accurate.

If NPHET are correct, things in NI are going to get very grim over the next few months. I will watch with interest.

The case rate in the UK has gone from ~50 to ~240 over the course of June already and it’s still accelerating

stephen_n · 30-06-2021 09:29AM

awec wrote: »

What's interesting about this delay is that we have an excellent control case in NI that will show us whether or not NPHETs modelling is in any way accurate.

If NPHET are correct, things in NI are going to get very grim over the next few months. I will watch with interest.

There was a report in one of the papers predicting 1000 cases a day by August. So if that comes to pass, it will be similar to the height of infections last December. What will be more interesting to see is wether the link with hospitalization and severe infection are broken by the vaccine. As a huge proportion of the North’s population is already vaccinated twice.

30-06-2021 09:41AM

stephen_n wrote: »

There was a report in one of the papers predicting 1000 cases a day by August. So if that comes to pass, it will be similar to the height of infections last December. What will be more interesting to see is wether the link with hospitalization and severe infection are broken by the vaccine. As a huge proportion of the North’s population is already vaccinated twice.

The infection > hospitalisation > death ratio will not be the same as previous waves / peaks.

The problem is, you only need a small % of the population getting sick at the same time to overwhelm the health service.

And having both vaccines doesn't stop you getting covid or spreading it, a BBC broadcaster just last week was in the news for having had covid despite having both jabs.

It will take a higher % of 20 - 40's catching covid at once to overwhelm the health service, but it's still entirely possible and if that happens - we go back into full lockdown despite everything.

Social media has been a reactionary, misinformed mess the last week and it's genuinely concerning to see at this stage into a pandemic how dismissive people have become.

Podge_irl · 30-06-2021 09:43AM

Deleted User wrote: »

And having both vaccines doesn't stop you getting covid or spreading it, a BBC broadcaster just last week was in the news for having had covid despite having both jabs.

Yes, a highly at risk individual who ended up in bed for a couple days and compared it to a summer flu. Ultimately, its a great story, not a worry.

mfceiling · 30-06-2021 09:43AM

According to the BBC news on the radio yesterday, 80% of the adult population have 1 dose and 60% have 2.
Surely herd immunity must be close to kicking in?
There's a lower risk of hospitalisation amongst the younger generation so I don't think the hospitals are going to be overwhelmed.

30-06-2021 09:48AM

Podge_irl wrote: »

Yes, a highly at risk individual who ended up in bed for a couple days and compared it to a summer flu. Ultimately, its a great story, not a worry.

Loads of people who had covid felt it was just a flu - but infect enough people and enough of the reactions will become statistically significant from a health care perspective to require restrictions, even if it's a younger demographic.

"a great story" - not sure what you meant by this, do you think it's scaremongering?

awec · 30-06-2021 09:49AM

irishbucsfan wrote: »

The case rate in the UK has gone from ~50 to ~240 over the course of June already and it’s still accelerating

Case rate is of no consequence any more.

Hospitalisations and deaths are the only relevant statistics at this stage.

If hospitalisations and subsequently deaths surge in NI in the next few months then NPHET will have got it spot on.

prawnsambo · 30-06-2021 09:51AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Loads of people who had covid felt it was just a flu - but infect enough people and enough of the reactions will become statistically significant from a health care perspective to require restrictions, even if it's a younger demographic.

"a great story" - not sure what you meant by this, do you think it's scaremongering?

I'd be more concerned of a vaccine resistant strain emerging tbh.

Squidgy Black · 30-06-2021 09:52AM

mfceiling wrote: »

According to the BBC news on the radio yesterday, 80% of the adult population have 1 dose and 60% have 2.
Surely herd immunity must be close to kicking in?
There's a lower risk of hospitalisation amongst the younger generation so I don't think the hospitals are going to be overwhelmed.

Problem with herd immunity is it's almost impossible to say when it comes in to play, but I think about 20% of the UKs population is under 18, so at the moment they're at roughly 60% herd immunity, and I think the last figure I seen for herd immunity was 75% of total population.

aloooof · 30-06-2021 09:55AM

The worry seems to be coming from the fact that the Delta variant is ~55% more transmissable than the Alpha (which was the dominant strain for the Winter spike), which itself was ~50% more transmissable than the original Wuhan variant, the obvious difference this time being the vaccine effect.

Off Topic Thread 5.0

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