Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings

walus · 25-06-2021 08:58AM

Lumen wrote: »

In a sane world what would have happened:

- Government flags months in advance that indoor restrictions will lift fully and irrevocably at the start of July.
- NPHET warns about growth of delta variant in the country with which we share an open land border.
- Paying heed to the risks arising from variants + planned re-opening of society, the HSE switches their dosing strategy to complete AZ vaccine rollout with dosing intervals closer to the original trials, and gives other vaccines as all new first doses.
- Paying heed to the risks arising from variants + planned re-opening of society, NIAC re-runs their risk calculator and amends their advice to allow allow Janssen for anyone who wants it.
- By the start of July all vulnerable people are fully vaccinated, all delivered Janssen is used, schools are out and everyone who isn't vaccinated can take whatever precautions they deem necessary.

Competence fantasy ends.

Instead we have 90k doses of unused Janssen, loads of oldies and HCWs waiting for their second doses, and continued flapping and dithering coming from health authorities and government.

But why would anybody bother will all this? That is just too much thinking, planning and executing to be doing. It is just easier to delay the opening. This is Ireland.

growleaves · 25-06-2021 09:14AM

The criteria keeps rotating from metric to metric, from one assumption to another.

There are too many tripwires.

Remember I said at the start of the summer that you should treat the sunshine as a reprieve from lockdown rather than focus on restrictions?

That way you get a mental break from lockdown. One or two of our 'pro-restriction' posters objected to that because according to them I was casting doubt.

Be smart. Have your affairs wrapped up and your hibernation plan ready to go for October at the latest. If you're single, look for a partner right now while the days are long.

People should be focused on their personal survival rather than the stream of incoherent lies pouring forth from officials, bureaucrats, politicians, journalists, and shill posters (not saying they are paid to post, but they have aligned themselves with power and will relay what they think the official line is).

Don't spend too long on this thread either. Bickering is not good for the mind.

The HorsesMouth · 25-06-2021 09:16AM

Why is no one in the media questioning them and asking why every other country in the EU has indoor dining open? Why are we the only ones?

OwenM · 25-06-2021 09:19AM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

She's a member of NPHET

Laying the ground work for next week's NPHET recommendations

Delay by 2 to 3 weeks = more vaccinations and Martin and Co will agree to that

"“Another three weeks would give us another million doses, which would take us from 3.5m to 4.5m doses, which would make a really substantial difference. At this point, it is all about getting vaccines in arms and an additional two or three weeks would make a very substantial difference,” Dr Favier said on RTɒs Morning Ireland.

“The feeling on the ground, and this would be the feeling of many General Practitioners, is that vaccination saves lives. If it’s two to three more weeks so that we can prevent ever having our health service in the same circumstances it was back in January, or ever having that many deaths again or ever going into another lockdown, I think the sentiment out there would be that we would delay.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/many-gps-want-indoor-reopening-delayed-by-several-weeks-over-delta-variant-concerns-nphet-member-40575233.html

Always love the argument to prevent lockdown just don't open up for another 2 to 3 weeks

Then it will be don't open up as we need the schools back similar to last year

She's also wrong about the capacity to vaccinate, supply in July is supposed to be limited to around 200k per week. So their logic would dictate we have to delay for 6 weeks because we need another million vaccinations, it never ends, it all been about 'the next two weeks' since this whole thing started.

daydorunrun · 25-06-2021 09:24AM

The big problem coming down the track now is that hospitals are really busy with non-covid care and getting busier. As society gets opened and cases tick up a fair percentage of those high numbers going into hospital for other reasons will also be testing positive.......hey presto hospital numbers of 'covid cases' grows and around we go.

25-06-2021 09:27AM

Where are the opposition parties in all of this?

LuckyLloyd · 25-06-2021 09:29AM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

It’s generally accepted that it will be the dominant strain. How exactly did we do a better job of keeping it out other than we have fewer arrivals from it’s supposed origin?

Travel restrictions are useless in keeping variants out. We have Kappa, Iota, Eta and Zeta, and more here. If there’s a dominant mutation out there, it will come to our shores.

How exactly? Time. We bought ourselves time. The weeks of time we bought will equate to 1.5 - 1.8m more jabs in arms before it became the dominant strain and started ripping through the unvaccinated populace. It could well be the difference between us keeping roughly in line with our reopening plan or being mired in a disastrous third wave requiring restrictions to be reimposed, etc.

facehugger99 · 25-06-2021 09:31AM

The HorsesMouth wrote: »

Why is no one in the media questioning them and asking why every other country in the EU has indoor dining open? Why are we the only ones?

Because the media are being financially incentivized to ramp up Covid fear and hysteria.

Media outlets stopped reporting on facts some time ago and started chasing clicks and advertising revenue.

growleaves · 25-06-2021 09:32AM

The HorsesMouth wrote: »

Why is no one in the media questioning them and asking why every other country in the EU has indoor dining open? Why are we the only ones?

Because the media are aligned with power. So if the government wants to keep indoor dining closed then journalists, who they know personally in most cases, will support them.

That's how it is.

Russman · 25-06-2021 09:32AM

AdamD wrote: »

Where are the opposition parties in all of this?

Rightly or wrongly they largely agree with the government. Only way they'll start to disagree is when things improve to the point where there's no going back and its safer for them to snipe from the sidelines and tell the world how they would have done it much better.

robbiezero · 25-06-2021 09:35AM

Russman wrote: »

Rightly or wrongly they largely agree with the government. Only way they'll start to disagree is when things improve to the point where there's no going back and its safer for them to snipe from the sidelines and tell the world how they would have done it much better.

There is no gain for the opposition in opposing restrictions. This Government is a busted flush anyway and the longer restrictions stay in place, the worse its going to be for them.

No one cared or remembered the opposition in 2007 when FF were basing out current spending on selling 100K houses to each other and all the opposition wanted was more spending.

Graham · 25-06-2021 09:36AM

OwenM wrote: »

She's also wrong about the capacity to vaccinate, supply in July is supposed to be limited to around 200k per week. So their logic would dictate we have to delay for 6 weeks because we need another million vaccinations, it never ends, it all been about 'the next two weeks' since this whole thing started.

We have about half a million doses in the supply chain now.

robbiezero · 25-06-2021 09:36AM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

How exactly? Time. We bought ourselves time. The weeks of time we bought will equate to 1.5 - 1.8m more jabs in arms before it became the dominant strain and started ripping through the unvaccinated populace. It could well be the difference between us keeping roughly in line with our reopening plan or being mired in a disastrous third wave requiring restrictions to be reimposed, etc.

What do you think would happen in a third wave?
January again?

Neamhshuntasach · 25-06-2021 09:37AM

I wonder how many places will just say f<ck it and open up on July 5th. Can't close all of them.

hynesie08 · 25-06-2021 09:44AM

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

I wonder how many places will just say f<ck it and open up on July 5th. Can't close all of them.

Are you aware of a little thing called insurance?

Russman · 25-06-2021 09:47AM

robbiezero wrote: »

There is no gain for the opposition in opposing restrictions. This Government is a busted flush anyway and the longer restrictions stay in place, the worse its going to be for them.

No one cared or remembered the opposition in 2007 when FF were basing out current spending on selling 100K houses to each other and all the opposition wanted was more spending.

True enough. It'll be interesting come election time whenever that rolls round. Nobody sane is going to campaign on the COVID & restrictions issue as generally speaking the govt are seen as having steered a reasonable course through unprecedented times. Not in this thread obviously, but all the polls have shown consistent support, broadly speaking. Of course they made a balls of some things, but in general.
The likely biggest party are all in on restrictions anyway so you'll probably have a few headbanger independents elected on local issues, but its Ireland, we generally revert to type when voting. The trick will be calling the election before the full bill comes in.

Loafing Oaf · 25-06-2021 09:53AM

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

I wonder how many places will just say f<ck it and open up on July 5th. Can't close all of them.

Not how our SME owners roll...

Graham · 25-06-2021 10:03AM

hynesie08 wrote: »

Are you aware of a little thing called insurance?

In fairness I don't think there are that many in the hospitality industry with pandemic cover.

I don't doubt the impact of a delayed reopening would be very painful for the industry and should it prove necessary, an appropriate level of financial assistance should be provided.

25-06-2021 10:06AM

Graham wrote: »

In fairness I don't think there are that many in the hospitality industry with pandemic cover.

I don't doubt the impact of a delayed reopening would be very painful for the industry and should it prove necessary, an appropriate level of financial assistance should be provided.

I assume he means that if a restaurant/bar opened on July 5th, despite government restrictions, their general insurance would be void?

And they'd likely have issues renewing licenses etc.

hynesie08 · 25-06-2021 10:10AM

Graham wrote: »

In fairness I don't think there are that many in the hospitality industry with pandemic cover.

I don't doubt the impact of a delayed reopening would be very painful for the industry and should it prove necessary, an appropriate level of financial assistance should be provided.

If a business opened on July 5th without the go ahead, and someone tripped or cut themselves on a broken glass, that business will be bankrupt, because their insurance will laugh them out the door.

Gael23 · 25-06-2021 10:10AM

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0625/1231268-covid-hospitals/

Loafing Oaf · 25-06-2021 10:17AM

robbiezero wrote: »

There is no gain for the opposition in opposing restrictions.

Or taking any strong independent line on the handling of the pandemic really. If we look to the opposite extreme, where PBP have consistently called for a zero covid strategy and tougher restrictions generally, opinion polls suggest a large swathe of the population has been in broad agreement with them. Does this mean significant numbers who have not traditionally voted 'hard left' will give them a 'gratitude vote' next time out? I highly doubt it...

suicide_circus · 25-06-2021 10:17AM

Gael23 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0625/1231268-covid-hospitals/

Jeayzus better extend those restrictions

Graham · 25-06-2021 10:17AM

hynesie08 wrote: »

If a business opened on July 5th without the go ahead, and someone tripped or cut themselves on a broken glass, that business will be bankrupt, because their insurance will laugh them out the door.

Not having read any of their public liability policies I wouldn't claim to know either way.

Having recently read a PL policy for a retail operation I see nothing in there that would give grounds for an insurer to disavow a claim under similar circumstances/

I'm going to call red-herring on this one unless someone wants to link to a policy document that shows otherwise.

Spanish Eyes · 25-06-2021 10:22AM

Indoor dining is a euphemism for opening pubs. That is a problem for the MUP supporting NGOs and they have power, even though it appears to me that MUP is designed to get us into pubs and not to drink in fields, parks, at home etc. A bit of snobbery going on methinks. OK to eat inside, but not OK to drink inside without food, or at least that is the impression I am getting rightly or wrongly.

I don't know what to think now, except people's expectations are built up only to be crushed within a few days of every positive hint at reopening. I think they want as many as possible vaccinated before reopening, and a two week wait from 7/7 is likely, but hopefully not. We shall see.

Gael23 · 25-06-2021 10:28AM

Graham wrote: »

Not having read any of their public liability policies I wouldn't claim to know either way.

Having recently read a PL policy for a retail operation I see nothing in there that would give grounds for an insurer to disavow a claim under similar circumstances/

I'm going to call red-herring on this one unless someone wants to link to a policy document that shows otherwise.

I believe this is the case. The Gardai won’t have the resources to quash a mass reopening but public liability insurance would be void

zackory · 25-06-2021 10:37AM

hynesie08 wrote: »

If a business opened on July 5th without the go ahead, and someone tripped or cut themselves on a broken glass, that business will be bankrupt, because their insurance will laugh them out the door.

Source?

I know a business that got the option of greatly reduced premiums if NOBODY was allowed in, or to just leave public liability in place.

You are making this one up.

agoodpunt · 25-06-2021 10:38AM

dont expect any opening here we are in the new normal just go north or anywhere in europe where most are open I will be away august and sept so make no difference to me

Graham · 25-06-2021 10:39AM

Gael23 wrote: »

I believe this is the case. The Gardai won’t have the resources to quash a mass reopening but public liability insurance would be void

I've heard this a few times but nobody has managed to come up with a source yet.

It's probably not particularly relevant anyway as the majority will act in accordance with the public health measures in place at the time.

zackory · 25-06-2021 10:40AM

Gael23 wrote: »

I believe this is the case. The Gardai won’t have the resources to quash a mass reopening but public liability insurance would be void

Have you a source on public liability being viud?

Covid has been written out of most policies but nothing about opening during restrictions.

It's the same with storm Red alerts, some businesses stay open, nothing in their policy says otherwise.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings