False rape accusation...who would you believe?

jimwallace197 · 22-06-2021 7:35pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

This is needlessly aggressive.

The maths here are fairly simple really, we only need two statistics to work it out. I'll give sources below for where I got mine but if you want to provide your own sourced figures I'll update the figures.

We need the % of rapes that are reported, and the % of those that are false allegations made. I'm using 8% as the reported figure and 6% for the false allegations.

The Savi Report found that

So, 92% of rapes go unreported.

And, the number of false allegations is somewhere between 2%-6%

Now, I'll take the higher figure of 6% as the total number of false allegations, that's 6% of 8%.

What that means is that for every 200 rapes, 16 are reported and 184 are unreported. Of the 16 reported 1 is a false allegation (6%).

So for every 1 person who has been false accused of rape there are 184 people who haven't reported their rape.

Source: The Savi Report

Source: The Irish Examiner and also here

My original statement was

And as you can see now I am correct, and it's almost a 200 to 1 ratio.

Ok, so this is what we know about your so called evidence.

1) Accumulated over 20 years ago
2) Report was written by 4 women and 1 man
3) Evidence was acquired by calling random people at home through anonymous telephone calls
4) Conducted by the Health Services Research Centre, Department of Psychology, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland in association with the Dublin Rape Crisis Centre.. Yes, im sure it was impartial without motivations

Go away with your absolute nonsense you charlatan

...Ghost... · 22-06-2021 7:40pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

This is needlessly aggressive.

The maths here are fairly simple really, we only need two statistics to work it out. I'll give sources below for where I got mine but if you want to provide your own sourced figures I'll update the figures.

We need the % of rapes that are reported, and the % of those that are false allegations made. I'm using 8% as the reported figure and 6% for the false allegations.

The Savi Report found that

So, 92% of rapes go unreported.

And, the number of false allegations is somewhere between 2%-6%

Now, I'll take the higher figure of 6% as the total number of false allegations, that's 6% of 8%.

What that means is that for every 200 rapes, 16 are reported and 184 are unreported. Of the 16 reported 1 is a false allegation (6%).

So for every 1 person who has been false accused of rape there are 184 people who haven't reported their rape.

Source: The Savi Report

Source: The Irish Examiner and also here

My original statement was

And as you can see now I am correct, and it's almost a 200 to 1 ratio.

Thanks for the link and for trying. You didn't notice the very first line referencing the SAVI report?

It says:

The prevalence of sexual violence in Ireland is unknown.

It goes on to say:

The main aim of the SAVI study was to estimate the prevalence of various forms of sexual violence among Irish women and men across the lifespan from childhood through adulthood.

Ignoring the 29% who declined to participate in a relatively small sample size, the biggest problem with your source is who commissioned it; The Dublin Rape Crisis Centre. Not at all biased are they? :rolleyes:

3 of 9 persons on the monitoring group were directly connected with the DRCC, one of whom was a former director of the DRCC.

Sorry, but i'd quicker believe figures pulled out of your backside than those.

Smee_Again · 22-06-2021 7:43pm

Post up your own figures lads, you’ll struggle to create a situation where the number of false allegations are greater than the number of unreported rapes.

Until you do I’m happy with my statement and my supporting evidence.

...Ghost... · 22-06-2021 7:59pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

Post up your own figures lads, you’ll struggle to create a situation where the number of false allegations are greater than the number of unreported rapes.

Until you do I’m happy with my statement and my supporting evidence.

I wasn't the one making the bold claims. I was calling someone's anecdotal claims as b0llix. I followed up with a solution on how to increase the conviction percentages and provided basic sums on how that would work.

There are plenty of resources for this and here's one which includes how to do percentages => https://www.dummies.com/education/math/basic-math/

We have a huge problem here in Ireland and elsewhere. Basic steps are not taken when false allegations are made. Allegations are assumed to be true and the accused is treated like a criminal even when accompanied with CCTV to prove the allegation is false.

Until the people making false claims and the authorities who are negligent in their duties are held to account, there will be no change and innocent people will continue to have their lives ruined while genuine victims of rape are less likely to report it because the conviction rates are so low....which brings us back to why they are so low.

Smee_Again · 22-06-2021 8:06pm

Every post where you don’t post actual figures is an admission that you can’t find any to refute my claim.

jimwallace197 · 22-06-2021 8:10pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

Post up your own figures lads, you’ll struggle to create a situation where the number of false allegations are greater than the number of unreported rapes.

Until you do I’m happy with my statement and my supporting evidence.

You see, because people like you don't understand there is a stigma around men who are falsely accused of rape (no smoke without fire), alot of them refuse to do anything about it after the fact. But often silently they try to carry on after their lives have been ruined in more ways than one.

You only have to look at the ridiculously biased attitude posters such as bubblypops have in relation to these crimes to know men are not treated fairly at all with regard to these crimes. This is someone who has claimed frequently to be a member of our AGS protection services unit but can you imagine someone like her investigating a crime such as this that you have been falsely accused of. God knows what would happen.

Men who have been falsely accused of or charged with sexual assault or rape often want it to go away so it doesnt destroy their reputation further. Its not the type of thing they are going to openly discuss to anonymous telephone callers ffs. Pull your head out of your ass.

22-06-2021 8:10pm

There's no talking to some posters, the belief that every not guilty verdict equals a vexatious complaint, is just ridiculous.

jimwallace197 · 22-06-2021 8:13pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

Every post where you don’t post actual figures is an admission that you can’t find any to refute my claim.

What are you claims? A 20 year old study conducted in conjunction with the Dublin rape crisis centre who rely on government for their funding.

22-06-2021 8:13pm

jimwallace197 wrote: »

You only have to look at the ridiculously biased attitude posters such as bubblypops have in relation to these crimes to know men are not treated fairly at all with regard to these crimes. This is someone who has claimed frequently to be a member of our AGS protection services unit.

I have never ever claimed any such thing.
Never.
Post reported.

jimwallace197 · 22-06-2021 8:16pm

bubblypop wrote: »

There's no talking to some posters, the belief that every not guilty verdict equals a vexatious complaint, is just ridiculous.

There's no talking to you more like it. You are not even willing to contemplate false accusations might occur. Always willing to believe the so called victim even if he or she is talking absolute nonsense.

And then even when realizing a false accusation might have occurred, refusing to accept any accountability. I'm sure you fit in very well with AGS.

jimwallace197 · 22-06-2021 8:17pm

bubblypop wrote: »

I have never ever claimed any such thing.
Never.
Post reported.

Go ahead with your reporting, its all your good for. You have claimed many times to be a member of AGS and then you come onto threads like this deliberately antagonizing posters

...Ghost... · 22-06-2021 8:17pm

bubblypop wrote: »

There's no talking to some posters, the belief that every not guilty verdict equals a vexatious complaint, is just ridiculous.

I very much agree with you here. Some guilty people walk free because of a lack of evidence, or the jury couldn't be convinced beyond reasonable doubt and it's a tragedy for the person wronged.

But then there are the innocent men who rightfully receive a "not-guilty" verdict, but are still tarred for life.

The false accusers don't have to face that problem and are supported by their cheer leaders even when their version of events turns to BS.

...Ghost... · 22-06-2021 8:22pm

bubblypop wrote: »

I have never ever claimed any such thing.
Never.
Post reported.

Never claimed to be a member of the Gardaí. Or the AGS protection services unit? I've never heard of the latter tbh.

jimwallace197 · 22-06-2021 8:42pm

bubblypop wrote: »

I have never ever claimed any such thing.
Never.
Post reported.

So you say you're not claiming to be one but you're not denying it either.

Which is it? Either you are or are not a member of AGS.

I could've sworn you have posted many times on the garda recruitment thread amongst many others claiming to be one.

iptba · 22-06-2021 8:42pm

With regard to any statistics, just to point out that as well as false reports, there are also other types of cases which are in a more grey area. For example, the NI case involving rugby players I doubt would be counted as a false report.

Smee_Again · 22-06-2021 9:09pm

iptba wrote: »

With regard to any statistics, just to point out that as well as false reports, there are also other types of cases which are in a more grey area. For example, the NI case involving rugby players I doubt would be counted as a false report.

You’re probably right, but they’d barely make a dent in the figures I posted above.

Only a faction of rapes actually get reported and only a fraction of those are false reports.

As long as unreported rapes are > reported rapes then false allegations will be < unreported rapes.

Wibbs · 22-06-2021 9:11pm

jimwallace197, you were warned a couple of pages ago about musing on another poster's job and you didn't heed it. Take a week off from the forum. No more on this score and let's keep this tidy and civil or more bans will be handed out. One warning is all that will be posted. Thanks.

Lisha · 22-06-2021 9:30pm

"Caquas wrote: »

The Judge's comment you quote is extraordinary:

If there was a sexual element in this case, why was he not so charged? Is the Judge saying his is a sex offender who will not be on the sex offenders register?

Let me reiterate my basic points: the facts of this case as reported in the media do not amount to the crime of coercion and, even assuming there are facts which validate the charge, this man was subjected to a sentence which was in line with those for vicious assaults although there was no violence involved.

I’ve been stunned reading some of the comments in this case. To put it bluntly, I have an 11yr old daughter, if any person, be it an adult or an older teenager approached her and asked her to go for a walk, I would see it as a threat to my child’s safety. And I would want the judicial system to act appropriately so no other child would be in danger from someone who thinks it’s ok to see children as ‘dates’.

And if I didn’t have a daughter I’d still feel the same.

...Ghost... · 22-06-2021 9:33pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

You’re probably right, but they’d barely make a dent in the figures I posted above.

Only a faction of rapes actually get reported and only a fraction of those are false reports.

As long as unreported rapes are > reported rapes then false allegations will be < unreported rapes.

Genuine question. How much weight would you give to a report showing a near reversal of those figures commissioned by a mens rights group?

Smee_Again · 22-06-2021 9:35pm

...Ghost... wrote: »

Genuine question. How much weight would you give to a report showing a near reversal of those figures commissioned by a mens rights group?

Does one exist?

...Ghost... · 22-06-2021 9:55pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

Does one exist?

I'll get to that later. How much weight would you put into a similar report commissioned by a mens rights group?

Smee_Again · 22-06-2021 9:58pm

...Ghost... wrote: »

I'll get to that later. How much weight would you put into a similar report commissioned by a mens rights group?

How long is a piece of string, impossible to say without seeing the report.

If you have such a report post it and I’ll look at it and give you an honest answer.

It might take me a while to read it and understand the methodology so you’ll have to bear with me.

...Ghost... · 22-06-2021 11:52pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

How long is a piece of string, impossible to say without seeing the report.

If you have such a report post it and I’ll look at it and give you an honest answer.

It might take me a while to read it and understand the methodology so you’ll have to bear with me.

Take it as a hypothetical. A mens rights group commission a report using the same approach, only it shows 92% of rape allegations are false and only 6% are credible. Ask yourself honestly how much credit you would give to such a report. And if it's a different weighting to report you referenced, why?

I am of the view that a report which favours the agenda, beliefs or financial interests of those who commissioned it is not worth wiping your @rse with. This is especially true when the data collected cannot be independently verified.

Smee_Again · 23-06-2021 7:37am

...Ghost... wrote: »

Take it as a hypothetical. A mens rights group commission a report using the same approach, only it shows 92% of rape allegations are false and only 6% are credible. Ask yourself honestly how much credit you would give to such a report. And if it's a different weighting to report you referenced, why?

I am of the view that a report which favours the agenda, beliefs or financial interests of those who commissioned it is not worth wiping your @rse with. This is especially true when the data collected cannot be independently verified.

I’d take issue with the methodology because they’ve only accounted for 98% of the allegations.

But even if 92% are false that means the ratio of false allegations to unreported rapes is still 12.5 unreported rapes for every 1 false allegation.

So even with your hypothetical made up figures you can’t refute my claim that there are far more unreported rapes than false allegations of rape.

Again I’m happy to read such a report if one exists, otherwise I’ll continue to treat your posts as the nonsense that they are.

Smee_Again · 23-06-2021 8:33am

...Ghost... wrote: »

Genuine question. How much weight would you give to a report showing a near reversal of those figures commissioned by a mens rights group?

Smee_Again wrote: »

Does one exist?

...Ghost... wrote: »

I'll get to that later. How much weight would you put into a similar report commissioned by a mens rights group?

...Ghost... wrote: »

Take it as a hypothetical.

By "get to that later" did you mean just making one up?

...Ghost... · 23-06-2021 10:08am

Smee_Again wrote: »

I’d take issue with the methodology because they’ve only accounted for 98% of the allegations.

But even if 92% are false that means the ratio of false allegations to unreported rapes is still 12.5 unreported rapes for every 1 false allegation.

So even with your hypothetical made up figures you can’t refute my claim that there are far more unreported rapes than false allegations of rape.

Again I’m happy to read such a report if one exists, otherwise I’ll continue to treat your posts as the nonsense that they are.

Interesting that you would treat someones posts as nonsense simply for having a different critical view, rather than treating each post based on it's own content. That attitude shows that you wouldn't consider a similar study on its merits were it to be commissioned by a mens rights group, because you're so caught up in trying to prove the unprovable.

I don't treat your posts as nonsense. I see most of them as incorrect and at odds with my own take, but nonsense, no. While I might often disagree with certain posters in various forums, I'm not so blind as to mark them as some sort of enemy. I simply contribute and debate and ask questions such as is the point of boards.ie . I've even been known to thank a couple of bubblys posts even though we are usually at opposite ends of the spectrum.

The only nonsense is the report you have relied upon to prove a point. Despite the opening line of the executive summary outlining that the figures are unknown and are an estimate (based on an unverifiable data group) you decided to knuckle down anyway. Sorry to be the one to burst your bubble, but that's no reason to write off my posts as nonsense. Perhaps when someone you know falls foul of a clear false accusation, your cough might soften.

I personally would not trust any report commissioned by an organisation with bias agenda. Had the report been independently commissioned, I wouldn't trust it anyway because the sample size is too small and the data cannot be verified. I haven't gone through the full report, because I know it's nonsense and the people making the phone calls were no doubt trained by DRCC and had a set of questions designed by the DRCC. Low figures would not have been to their favour, so it was in their interest to have such a report done in that way.

I didn't see any control measure for those who claimed to have been raped, but which were actually false. What do people have to gain by lying in an anonymised interview you might ask. Well, people do strange sh1t all the time and a lie told once is easily told twice.

Smee_Again · 23-06-2021 10:45am

That's a very long winded way of saying the report you alluded to previously doesn't exist.

So in the absence of any contradicting evidence, real or hypothetical imaginary, I'll stick to my original statement, backed by evidence, that there are far more unreported rapes than false allegations of rape.

...Ghost... · 23-06-2021 11:04am

Smee_Again wrote: »

That's a very long winded way of saying the report you alluded to previously doesn't exist.

So in the absence of any contradicting evidence, real or hypothetical imaginary, I'll stick to my original statement, backed by evidence, that there are far more unreported rapes than false allegations of rape.

Of course it is your choice to stick to whatever "evidence" you wish. But if that is all you have to rely on, i'll stick to my belief that the "evidence" put forward is at best, biased and manipulated. At least they have enough integrity to point out themselves that the report is essentially fairytale figures and can't be relied upon. In fairness, had they not included that, the report would have been attacked and rubbished at every level. They are basically saying it's a fiction piece.

...Ghost... · 23-06-2021 11:56am

Here is a more recent report I gleamed https://web.archive.org/web/20180101025446/https://icdv.idaho.gov/conference/handouts/False-Allegations.pdf . It's more recent and shows that 2-10% of false allegations that are investigated were PROVEN to be false. We don't have a more recent Irish equivalent, but given the incompetence often seen with our Gardaí and the DPP, I wouldn't hold much value in their willingness to tackle false allegations.

It's fair to assume that many were unproven, but were still false.....same as it is fair to assume that some rapists go free because it could not be proven. Oh and these are only figures reported to authorities, so there weren't any anonymous phone calls made by activists employees of rape crisis organisations.

Although not based in Ireland, I see no reason why the figures would not be comparable.

Smee_Again · 23-06-2021 12:24pm

...Ghost... wrote: »

Here is a more recent report I gleamed https://web.archive.org/web/20180101025446/https://icdv.idaho.gov/conference/handouts/False-Allegations.pdf . It's more recent and shows that 2-10% of false allegations that are investigated were PROVEN to be false. We don't have a more recent Irish equivalent, but given the incompetence often seen with our Gardaí and the DPP, I wouldn't hold much value in their willingness to tackle false allegations.

It's fair to assume that many were unproven, but were still false.....same as it is fair to assume that some rapists go free because it could not be proven. Oh and these are only figures reported to authorities, so there weren't any anonymous phone calls made by activists employees of rape crisis organisations.

Although not based in Ireland, I see no reason why the figures would not be comparable.

I read this before and it is referenced in the second report I linked earlier, footnote 31 if you're interested.

So, lets go with 10% are false. That puts the ratio of unreported rapes to false allegations at 110:1.

...Ghost... · 23-06-2021 12:50pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

I read this before and it is referenced in the second report I linked earlier, footnote 31 if you're interested.

So, lets go with 10% are false. That puts the ratio of unreported rapes to false allegations at 110:1.

Well, no, let's not. If we are to work off the 10% proven, then it's only fair to work off the percentage of proven rapes and that wouldn't work very well for you at all. The proven false allegation figure compared to the proven rape figure would have heads spinning.

I'll stick to my assertion that the DRCC commissioned survey is b0llix, because that's essentially what they say themselves in the executive summary, first line.

Smee_Again · 23-06-2021 1:50pm

...Ghost... wrote: »

Well, no, let's not. If we are to work off the 10% proven, then it's only fair to work off the percentage of proven rapes and that wouldn't work very well for you at all. The proven false allegation figure compared to the proven rape figure would have heads spinning.

I'll stick to my assertion that the DRCC commissioned survey is b0llix, because that's essentially what they say themselves in the executive summary, first line.

Post a sourced figure of the % of rapes that are reported.

I already have but you seem reluctant to, it doesn’t have to be from Ireland.

You alluded to a report yesterday but then posted imaginary figures that didn’t actually refute or contradict my points

...Ghost... · 23-06-2021 2:41pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

Post a sourced figure of the % of rapes that are reported.

Any such source would not be credible, because there is no way to know how many go unreported and there is no way to know how many are false. We can guess and put forward studies and biased commissioned surveys, but the fact is, nobody knows and I don't pretend to.

I already have but you seem reluctant to, it doesn’t have to be from Ireland.

Once again. Your report has about the same integrity as a chocolate kettle and this is stated in the report itself. You seem to have difficulty accepting that. If you are holding the report up as your proof, then at least have the rectitude to accept that the report admits it's at best, an estimate and they actually don't know the percentages.

You alluded to a report yesterday but then posted imaginary figures that didn’t actually refute or contradict my points

I never claimed there was a report. I asked you how much weight you would put in such a report. I suspect the dancing around the answer was to prevent yourself from being rabbit holed just incase I produced one.

I don't know if there is such a report and if there were, I wouldn't believe it, or hold it up as proof of anything, because I know it would be biased and that it is simply not possible to gather the data and present it credibly.

How do you think a human rights report in China might look if it were commissioned by the CCP? I'm sure they would hold their hands up and admit to all their wrongs, aren't you?

I have no need to contradict the report you linked, because it clearly says the figures are estimates and none of the data can be verified. It's as credible as the work of fiction it is. But, sure.... you keep holding that up as proof. It's just not proving what you hoped it would.

Smee_Again · 23-06-2021 3:10pm

We'll leave it there so, I've given you ample opportunity to present some figures and the best you could do was to make some up. Everyone can take from that what they want.

...Ghost... · 23-06-2021 3:46pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

We'll leave it there so, I've given you ample opportunity to present some figures and the best you could do was to make some up. Everyone can take from that what they want.

Like the DRCC did?

Yeah, best leave it there.

Smee_Again · 23-06-2021 4:17pm

...Ghost... wrote: »

Like the DRCC did?

Yeah, best leave it there.

If you don't like the DRCC report I'll use the estimates from the report you helpfully linked above.

It said that estimates put the number of reported rapes and sexual abuse at between 36% and 4%.

Using these figures, and 10% as the number of false allegations (again provided by you) that puts the range of unreported rapes to false allegations at between 18:1 and 240:1.

That higher range is much worse than I previously thought, so thanks for highlighting that.

...Ghost... · 23-06-2021 6:07pm

So much for leaving it there eh?

Smee_Again wrote: »

If you don't like the DRCC report I'll use the estimates from the report you helpfully linked above.

I don't trust the report from the DRCC and wouldn't put much weight in the report I linked to either. The point was to show the figures are all over the place. But when investigated, the PROVEN false allegations is far higher than you thought.

It said that estimates put the number of reported rapes and sexual abuse at between 36% and 4%.

Using these figures, and 10% as the number of false allegations (again provided by you) that puts the range of unreported rapes to false allegations at between 18:1 and 240:1.

That higher range is much worse than I previously thought, so thanks for highlighting that.

:pac: Try again.

I'll say again that these reports are fantasy and the wildly fluctuating figures show this to any person with comprehension skills. I could direct you to the report and point out that a cited report within it showed a false allegation rate of just below 64%.

The thing is, I personally believe (unreported) false allegations are above 60% and I don't care to guess how many reported allegations are false. The fact is, I don't know, the DRCC doesn't know and neither do you. By all means, keep working the ratios, but in the end, the result is a complete guess.

ittakestwo · 24-06-2021 4:29pm

...Ghost... wrote: »

So much for leaving it there eh?

I don't trust the report from the DRCC and wouldn't put much weight in the report I linked to either. The point was to show the figures are all over the place. But when investigated, the PROVEN false allegations is far higher than you thought.

:pac: Try again.

I'll say again that these reports are fantasy and the wildly fluctuating figures show this to any person with comprehension skills. I could direct you to the report and point out that a cited report within it showed a false allegation rate of just below 64%.

The thing is, I personally believe (unreported) false allegations are above 60% and I don't care to guess how many reported allegations are false. The fact is, I don't know, the DRCC doesn't know and neither do you. By all means, keep working the ratios, but in the end, the result is a complete guess.

What is an unreported false allegation. Surly a false allegation needs to be reported to make it a false allegation?

And how can you come up with a figure of 60% when you say statistics are not reliable..... is this from your own observations in life?

Smee_Again · 24-06-2021 4:54pm

ittakestwo wrote: »

What is an unreported false allegation. Surly a false allegation needs to be reported to make it a false allegation?

And how can you come up with a figure of 60% when you say statistics are not reliable..... is this from your own observations in life?

Don't waste your time. I've shown, using facts and figures provided by that poster, how rare false allegations are but when faced with that he relies on personal beliefs.

It's impossible to actually have a discussion when facts are dismissed for beliefs.

...Ghost... · 24-06-2021 6:46pm

ittakestwo wrote: »

What is an unreported false allegation. Surly a false allegation needs to be reported to make it a false allegation?

And how can you come up with a figure of 60% when you say statistics are not reliable..... is this from your own observations in life?

An unreported false allegation is one not reported to the Gardaí, but instead is spread among the accusers friends/family/community to smear the innocent person accused.

I was pretty clear when I said the figure of 60% was my own belief. There is no way to back up ANY figures and if I were to by my own observations, I would have to say 100% are false, because I know of a couple of false accusations which were made and I know of zero rapes that happened within my own extended circle over the years.

Whether a false allegation is reported or not, damage is done and I believe it's far more common than the like of the DRCC and its cheer leaders on here would like to believe.

Smee_Again wrote: »

Don't waste your time. I've shown, using facts and figures provided by that poster, how rare false allegations are but when faced with that he relies on personal beliefs.

It's impossible to actually have a discussion when facts are dismissed for beliefs.

And now you're talking nonsense. I've put forward my views and said several times why I would not trust figures you linked, but you are willfully ignoring the fact that the report self cancels by its own admission to the fact that their figures are an estimate.

It's impossible to have a logical discussion with someone who claims biased, unverifiable data is the same as fact. At least I have the decorum to clearly state that the figures I may put forward are my own guess and i'm not trying to back them up with data I wouldn't wipe my @rse with.

If you seriously hold the DRCC funded report up as some beacon of truth/fact, I don't think anyone can or should take you seriously.

Your only hope is to open that report you hold so dear and write the first line of the executive summary 100 times. It's not too late.

Smee_Again · 24-06-2021 11:43pm

...Ghost... wrote: »

If you seriously hold the DRCC funded report up as some beacon of truth/fact, I don't think anyone can or should take you seriously.

Your only hope is to open that report you hold so dear and write the first line of the executive summary 100 times. It's not too late.

DRCC didn’t fund the report you linked on which I based my calculations.

Your link shows that unreported rapes outnumber false allegations between 18 and 240 to 1.

If you provided the link why are you now trying to row back on it now? Is it because it shows the opposite of what you thought it did?

ittakestwo · 24-06-2021 11:59pm

...Ghost... wrote: »

An unreported false allegation is one not reported to the Gardaí, but instead is spread among the accusers friends/family/community to smear the innocent person accused.

I was pretty clear when I said the figure of 60% was my own belief. There is no way to back up ANY figures and if I were to by my own observations, I would have to say 100% are false, because I know of a couple of false accusations which were made and I know of zero rapes that happened within my own extended circle over the years.

Whether a false allegation is reported or not, damage is done and I believe it's far more common than the like of the DRCC

Yes but that does not mean you dont know people who have been raped. I would imagine most people we know who have been raped we don't know that they have.

And really you know people who go around saying they have been raped yet they have not reported it to the gardai. I would think it is extremely strange for a person to say they have been raped and not report it. Would people either claim to be raped and report it or dont report it and don't say they have been raped to others.

Also how is an unreported false allegation proven to be false. If it is never reported it never goes to trial. The only way I see an unreported false allegation can be proven to be false is if the accuser admits they had made up the allegation.

...Ghost... · 25-06-2021 1:04pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

DRCC didn’t fund the report you linked on which I based my calculations.

Your link shows that unreported rapes outnumber false allegations between 18 and 240 to 1.

If you provided the link why are you now trying to row back on it now? Is it because it shows the opposite of what you thought it did?

Are you even reading what I have been writing? I think not, as it seems you are cherry picking the parts you think you have a leg to stand on....plus you did admit that you are treating my posts as nonsense and yet you continue to engage after signing off on the debate a few posts back :pac:

By your own admission, the link I posted was cited in the DRCC report. Why was it cited? Because parts of it suited their agenda. Why did I post it? Have a look back, because I already answered that question and won't repeat myself when you aren't bothering to read what I have said. There is no rowing back.

ittakestwo wrote: »

Yes but that does not mean you dont know people who have been raped. I would imagine most people we know who have been raped we don't know that they have.

That's partly the point I've been making which another poster doesn't seem to comprehend. We simply do not know. We don't know if true unreported figure are 10% or 90%. I'm sure I have met people who were raped and was never aware of it.

And really you know people who go around saying they have been raped yet they have not reported it to the gardai. I would think it is extremely strange for a person to say they have been raped and not report it. Would people either claim to be raped and report it or dont report it and don't say they have been raped to others.

Three occasions that come to mind:
1) An ex-girlfriend claimed to me that she had been raped before I met her by a friend of her friends boyfriend. She spent hours going through the ordeal she had experienced with floods of tears streaming down her face. It was horrible and I felt so angry at the scumbag who did this to her and my heart was broken for my ex. I insisted she needed to report it, but she said she was afraid. She then told her friend and through the grapevine I heard the guy she named got a pretty serious beating because of it. She then told me that she reported it to the Gardaí and the guy had been reported by another girl she was told. I was a teenager and even then I found it odd that there was no further contact by the Gardaí. We grew apart and years later when I asked her if the Gardaí had ever got in touch about the rape report, I had to remind her about it before she burst out laughing and admitted that it was just her being a silly attention seeking teenager. She shrugged her shoulders when I asked if the guy getting a beating was true or not. Suffice to say, I had no more contact with her after that. I was relieved she never became an AGS member which was one of her potential career paths. We have enough dishonest members roaming around.

2) A woman I know made a false report the Gardaí. The accused was arrested and questioned and lost his job when news spread. He nearly committed suicide with the pressure. It was proven through communications that the allegation was false and malicious and nothing happened to the accuser who continued to claim she was raped. My understanding is the accuser wanted to have sex with the accused and he wasn't interested, so she decided to teach him a lesson.

3) A distant relative claimed she was drugged and raped by some guy she went out with. My mother heard the story and relayed it to me. I'm not even going to get into the farcical story I was told, but suffice to say....Hollywood couldn't have made it up as well as this. Proper Gone Girl stuff it was. She said she reported it to the Gardaí but I know she didn't because I know her son and even he called it BS.

Also how is an unreported false allegation proven to be false. If it is never reported it never goes to trial. The only way I see an unreported false allegation can be proven to be false is if the accuser admits they had made up the allegation.

You might have been mixing up some of what I was saying earlier on this point when I was giving my view on the figures. But proven false allegations that have not been reported can be proven if the person admits it, or is caught in a bold faced lie....for example; She claims she was raped by Mr. X last Sunday at noon at his house while she dropped off groceries from the local Centra. Except the Centra was closed on the Sunday and Mr. X spent the Sunday in hospital recovering from a surgery he had undergone the previous day and hadn't returned until the Tuesday. The person she tells about the fake rape knows about the Centra and that Mr. X was in hospital.

iptba · 25-06-2021 4:33pm

...Ghost... wrote: »

Three occasions that come to mind:
1) An ex-girlfriend claimed to me that she had been raped before I met her by a friend of her friends boyfriend. She spent hours going through the ordeal she had experienced with floods of tears streaming down her face. It was horrible and I felt so angry at the scumbag who did this to her and my heart was broken for my ex. I insisted she needed to report it, but she said she was afraid. She then told her friend and through the grapevine I heard the guy she named got a pretty serious beating because of it. She then told me that she reported it to the Gardaí and the guy had been reported by another girl she was told. I was a teenager and even then I found it odd that there was no further contact by the Gardaí. We grew apart and years later when I asked her if the Gardaí had ever got in touch about the rape report, I had to remind her about it before she burst out laughing and admitted that it was just her being a silly attention seeking teenager. She shrugged her shoulders when I asked if the guy getting a beating was true or not. Suffice to say, I had no more contact with her after that. I was relieved she never became an AGS member which was one of her potential career paths. We have enough dishonest members roaming around.

2) A woman I know made a false report the Gardaí. The accused was arrested and questioned and lost his job when news spread. He nearly committed suicide with the pressure. It was proven through communications that the allegation was false and malicious and nothing happened to the accuser who continued to claim she was raped. My understanding is the accuser wanted to have sex with the accused and he wasn't interested, so she decided to teach him a lesson.

3) A distant relative claimed she was drugged and raped by some guy she went out with. My mother heard the story and relayed it to me. I'm not even going to get into the farcical story I was told, but suffice to say....Hollywood couldn't have made it up as well as this. Proper Gone Girl stuff it was. She said she reported it to the Gardaí but I know she didn't because I know her son and even he called it BS.

Probably not new to many but I was thinking how false accusations will generally involve premeditation. Usually with offences, the punishment is more severe on crimes involving premeditation.

Smee_Again · 25-06-2021 5:13pm

...Ghost... wrote: »

Are you even reading what I have been writing?

I don’t really need to read your posts, the 2 reports you linked provided all the information I needed.

Information that allowed me demonstrate how rare false allegations are.

...Ghost... · 25-06-2021 5:20pm

iptba wrote: »

Probably not new to many but I was thinking how false accusations will generally involve premeditation. Usually with offences, the punishment is more severe on crimes involving premeditation.

I'd imagine so in most cases. Unfortunately the iron-clad DRCC report didn't really cover that aspect. They were too busy churning anonymous figures so they could say "studies have found" yada yada, men bad, "and the data suggests" yada yada, women never lie. :rolleyes:

...Ghost... · 25-06-2021 5:21pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

I don’t really need to read your posts, the 2 reports you linked provided all the information I needed.

Information that allowed me demonstrate how rare false allegations are.

And that says it all. Thanks

Ever thought of joining the force?

Smee_Again · 25-06-2021 5:24pm

...Ghost... wrote: »

And that says it all. Thanks

Ever thought of joining the force?

Oh, I read your posts. But I don’t really need to

25-06-2021 5:26pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

I don’t really need to read your posts, the 2 reports you linked provided all the information I needed.

Information that allowed me demonstrate how rare false allegations are.

But that poster knows three women that made up stories about being raped!
Clearly there are more false reports then rapes..........

Smee_Again · 25-06-2021 5:29pm

bubblypop wrote: »

But that poster knows three women that made up stories about being raped!
Clearly there are more false reports then rapes..........

He knows 3 women who made up stories and I know one poster who made up 3 stories.

False rape accusation...who would you believe?

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