False rape accusation...who would you believe?

Smee_Again · 22-06-2021 2:43pm

...Ghost... wrote: »

He was responding directly to another poster who made an irrelevant statement. Have you looked at it? It was so casual as to suggest these people he claims he knows were raped "haven't bothered" to report it because of low convictions. Sometimes we all need call out b0llix when we see it.

The conviction rate would be higher if less false accusations were made. If we really want to see higher conviction rates, we either tackle the problem of false accusations, or we lock away innocent people/men. Any preference?

There was nothing irrelevant about that statement nor was it bollox that needed calling out. In fact Jim was the one posting bollox that needed calling out.

[Deleted User] · 22-06-2021 2:48pm

...Ghost... wrote: »

The conviction rate would be higher if less false accusations were made. If we really want to see higher conviction rates, we either tackle the problem of false accusations, or we lock away innocent people/men. Any preference?

you do, of course, have some kind of evidence to back up this wild theory?

jimwallace197 · 22-06-2021 2:59pm

bubblypop wrote: »

you do, of course, have some kind of evidence to back up this wild theory?

The very essence of a theory is a lack of supporting evidence, you should know that in your game. What he is saying is logic, something you and smee again seem to be incapable of. And I wouldnt call his theory wild.

Less false accusations, higher conviction rate, more false accusations, lower conviction rate. Just because there is less convictions doesnt mean less rapists are being convicted, it could also mean more false accusations are happening. Sounds reasonable to me.

Smee_Again · 22-06-2021 3:03pm

jimwallace197 wrote: »

The very essence of a theory is a lack of supporting evidence, you should know that in your game. What he is saying is logic, something you and smee again seem to be incapable of. And I wouldnt call his theory wild.

Less false accusations, higher conviction rate, more false accusations, lower conviction rate. Just because there is less convictions doesnt mean less rapists are being convicted, it could also mean more false accusations are happening. Sounds reasonable to me.

You're confusing hypothesis with theory.

jimwallace197 · 22-06-2021 3:30pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

You're confusing hypothesis with theory.

No, I think you are just confused in general to be honest and dont have the first clue of what you are talking about

Smee_Again · 22-06-2021 3:39pm

jimwallace197 wrote: »

No, I think you are just confused in general to be honest and dont have the first clue of what you are talking about

Nah, you're out of your depth here Jim and you're lashing out as a result.

A hypothesis is a prediction of what will happen and a theory is a tested and substantiated explanation of why something happened.

Its a moot point though because hypothesis or theory, whoever is making the statement is expected to back it up.

...Ghost... · 22-06-2021 3:56pm

bubblypop wrote: »

you do, of course, have some kind of evidence to back up this wild theory?

It's called mathematics and there's nothing wild about it. Such logic is often lost within culture bias, agendas and lies. Here's a little exercise to paint the point clear.

(a) If sexual assault charges were brought against 100 women with 20 of them having solid evidence against them, would the conviction rate be higher, or lower than if
(b) 50 women had sexual assault charges brought against them with the same 20 women having solid evidence against them?

For the sake of simplicity, lets say 50% of the 20 women with solid evidence were convicted of sexual assault. What would the conviction rate be for:

(a)

10%

(b)

20%

Here's the kicker. In both scenarios, the same number of convictions happen.

jimwallace197 · 22-06-2021 4:03pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

Nah, you're out of your depth here Jim and you're lashing out as a result.

A hypothesis is a prediction of what will happen and a theory is a tested and substantiated explanation of why something happened.

Its a moot point though because hypothesis or theory, whoever is making the statement is expected to back it up.

Who is expected to back it up? You havent backed up anything you have said whatsoever in this chat so far, just calling various posts bollix and the like. Asking me have I been raped? Complete & utter spoofer. The poster in question was being asked to back up with hard evidence a wild theory he put forward. How is he supposed to have evidence if there is none out there except his own experiences which he is under no obligation to give out. This is a discussion board, he is entitled to his opinion just like you are unfortunately.

The only evidence out there is that people like you who dont know the first thing you are talking about are becoming more and more prevalent in society unfortunately. To give you and the likes of you any attention is a waste of energy.

iptba · 22-06-2021 4:04pm

Judges should address the issue of rape myths by giving guidance to juries at the outset of cases, a report on the trial process has concluded.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/courts/judges-urged-to-address-rape-myths-for-jurorsto-avoid-bias-40565366.html

She concluded guidance for juries should be introduced as a matter of priority to address ingrained or pre-existing biases, stereotypes and assumptions they may have.

This very much depends on what information jurors are given. I imagine it would be likely of the "politically correct" type that might disadvantage defendants.

---

The research was conducted in partnership with Dublin Rape Crisis Centre, whose CEO Noeline Blackwell described it as “an important piece of work”. She said it provided a “different perspective” and new insights.

This doesn't give me confidence in its impartiality.

[Deleted User] · 22-06-2021 4:11pm

jimwallace197 wrote: »

Less false accusations, higher conviction rate, more false accusations, lower conviction rate. Just because there is less convictions doesnt mean less rapists are being convicted, it could also mean more false accusations are happening. Sounds reasonable to me.

So, by your reckoning, there must be a lot of people falsely reporting all sorts of crimes, given that people are found not guilty in courts everyday!

[Deleted User] · 22-06-2021 4:14pm

...Ghost... wrote: »

It's called mathematics and there's nothing wild about it. Such logic is often lost within culture bias, agendas and lies. Here's a little exercise to paint the point clear.

(a) If sexual assault charges were brought against 100 women with 20 of them having solid evidence against them, would the conviction rate be higher, or lower than if
(b) 50 women had sexual assault charges brought against them with the same 20 women having solid evidence against them?

For the sake of simplicity, lets say 50% of the 20 women with solid evidence were convicted of sexual assault. What would the conviction rate be for:

(a)
10%
(b)
20%

Here's the kicker. In both scenarios, the same number of convictions happen.

I have no idea what you're trying to prove here...........

jimwallace197 · 22-06-2021 4:18pm

bubblypop wrote: »

So, by your reckoning, there must be a lot of people falsely reporting all sorts of crimes, given that people are found not guilty in courts everyday!

Again with the disingenuous statements. We both know, at least you should know anyways, that rape crimes end up usually being one word against the other and are a particularly difficult situation to determine what exactly has happened as the argument is often over whether consent has taken place rather than sexual intercourse has happened.

You cannot compare it to other crimes but the likes of you tend to do so to muddy the waters.

...Ghost... · 22-06-2021 4:20pm

iptba wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/courts/judges-urged-to-address-rape-myths-for-jurorsto-avoid-bias-40565366.html

This doesn't give me confidence in its impartiality.

That's because there is no impartiality. Not even a mention of then defendants. Oddly there is mention of the impact on a complainants finances, ignoring that the defendant likely lost his job at the mere whiff of an accusation. Where's the fairness there?

Smee_Again · 22-06-2021 4:20pm

jimwallace197 wrote: »

Who is expected to back it up? You havent backed up anything you have said whatsoever in this chat so far, just calling various posts bollix and the like. Asking me have I been raped? Complete & utter spoofer. The poster in question was being asked to back up with hard evidence a wild theory he put forward. How is he supposed to have evidence if there is none out there except his own experiences which he is under no obligation to give out. This is a discussion board, he is entitled to his opinion just like you are unfortunately.

The only evidence out there is that people like you who dont know the first thing you are talking about are becoming more and more prevalent in society unfortunately. To give you and the likes of you any attention is a waste of energy.

Are you referencing up for anything's post? That was an anecdote not a theory, and to be honest it was one I didn't think was all that controversial.

Far more rapes/sexual assaults go unreported than false accusations are made, so its hardly surprising that that poster knows more people who didn't report their assault than have made false accusations.

Its called mathematics.

...Ghost... · 22-06-2021 4:21pm

bubblypop wrote: »

I have no idea what you're trying to prove here...........

A wild theory apparently. It only took a few numbers and logic.

...Ghost... · 22-06-2021 4:23pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

Are you referencing up for anything's post? That was an anecdote not a theory, and to be honest it was one I didn't think was all that controversial.

Far more rapes/sexual assaults go unreported than false accusations are made, so its hardly surprising that that poster knows more people who didn't report their assault than have made false accusations.

Its called mathematics.

Any links to back that up?

I can provide links to how the math works if need be and by request.

jimwallace197 · 22-06-2021 4:23pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

Are you referencing up for anything's post? That was an anecdote not a theory, and to be honest it was one I didn't think was all that controversial.

Far more rapes/sexual assaults go unreported than false accusations are made, so its hardly surprising that that poster knows more people who didn't report their assault than have made false accusations.

Its called mathematics.

Do you have evidence to back up that wild statement?

Smee_Again · 22-06-2021 4:28pm

I do, but I’m out now so will get back to you later.

...Ghost... · 22-06-2021 4:35pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

I do, but I’m out now so will get back to you later.

I genuinely look forward to this proof, which I presently see in its best light as a hypothesis you are espoused.

Smee_Again · 22-06-2021 6:33pm

jimwallace197 wrote: »

You do in your hole, stick to what you know which is f**k all and save your personal creepy questions for someone you know.

This is needlessly aggressive.

...Ghost... wrote: »

I genuinely look forward to this proof, which I presently see in its best light as a hypothesis you are espoused.

The maths here are fairly simple really, we only need two statistics to work it out. I'll give sources below for where I got mine but if you want to provide your own sourced figures I'll update the figures.

We need the % of rapes that are reported, and the % of those that are false allegations made. I'm using 8% as the reported figure and 6% for the false allegations.

The Savi Report found that

Approximately 8 per cent of those who experienced penetrative abuse (or assaults meeting the legal definition of rape or rape under Section 4) as adults reported to the Gardai.

So, 92% of rapes go unreported.

And, the number of false allegations is somewhere between 2%-6%

they are invariably and consistently low. Research for the Home Office suggests that only 4% of cases of sexual violence reported to the UK police are found or suspected to be false. Studies carried out in Europe and in the US indicate rates of between 2% and 6%

Now, I'll take the higher figure of 6% as the total number of false allegations, that's 6% of 8%.

What that means is that for every 200 rapes, 16 are reported and 184 are unreported. Of the 16 reported 1 is a false allegation (6%).

So for every 1 person who has been false accused of rape there are 184 people who haven't reported their rape.

Source: The Savi Report

Source: The Irish Examiner and also here

My original statement was

Smee_Again wrote: »

Far more rapes/sexual assaults go unreported than false accusations are made

And as you can see now I am correct, and it's almost a 200 to 1 ratio.

jimwallace197 · 22-06-2021 7:35pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

This is needlessly aggressive.

The maths here are fairly simple really, we only need two statistics to work it out. I'll give sources below for where I got mine but if you want to provide your own sourced figures I'll update the figures.

We need the % of rapes that are reported, and the % of those that are false allegations made. I'm using 8% as the reported figure and 6% for the false allegations.

The Savi Report found that

So, 92% of rapes go unreported.

And, the number of false allegations is somewhere between 2%-6%

Now, I'll take the higher figure of 6% as the total number of false allegations, that's 6% of 8%.

What that means is that for every 200 rapes, 16 are reported and 184 are unreported. Of the 16 reported 1 is a false allegation (6%).

So for every 1 person who has been false accused of rape there are 184 people who haven't reported their rape.

Source: The Savi Report

Source: The Irish Examiner and also here

My original statement was

And as you can see now I am correct, and it's almost a 200 to 1 ratio.

Ok, so this is what we know about your so called evidence.

1) Accumulated over 20 years ago
2) Report was written by 4 women and 1 man
3) Evidence was acquired by calling random people at home through anonymous telephone calls
4) Conducted by the Health Services Research Centre, Department of Psychology, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland in association with the Dublin Rape Crisis Centre.. Yes, im sure it was impartial without motivations

Go away with your absolute nonsense you charlatan

...Ghost... · 22-06-2021 7:40pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

This is needlessly aggressive.

The maths here are fairly simple really, we only need two statistics to work it out. I'll give sources below for where I got mine but if you want to provide your own sourced figures I'll update the figures.

We need the % of rapes that are reported, and the % of those that are false allegations made. I'm using 8% as the reported figure and 6% for the false allegations.

The Savi Report found that

So, 92% of rapes go unreported.

And, the number of false allegations is somewhere between 2%-6%

Now, I'll take the higher figure of 6% as the total number of false allegations, that's 6% of 8%.

What that means is that for every 200 rapes, 16 are reported and 184 are unreported. Of the 16 reported 1 is a false allegation (6%).

So for every 1 person who has been false accused of rape there are 184 people who haven't reported their rape.

Source: The Savi Report

Source: The Irish Examiner and also here

My original statement was

And as you can see now I am correct, and it's almost a 200 to 1 ratio.

Thanks for the link and for trying. You didn't notice the very first line referencing the SAVI report?

It says:

The prevalence of sexual violence in Ireland is unknown.

It goes on to say:

The main aim of the SAVI study was to estimate the prevalence of various forms of sexual violence among Irish women and men across the lifespan from childhood through adulthood.

Ignoring the 29% who declined to participate in a relatively small sample size, the biggest problem with your source is who commissioned it; The Dublin Rape Crisis Centre. Not at all biased are they? :rolleyes:

3 of 9 persons on the monitoring group were directly connected with the DRCC, one of whom was a former director of the DRCC.

Sorry, but i'd quicker believe figures pulled out of your backside than those.

Smee_Again · 22-06-2021 7:43pm

Post up your own figures lads, you’ll struggle to create a situation where the number of false allegations are greater than the number of unreported rapes.

Until you do I’m happy with my statement and my supporting evidence.

...Ghost... · 22-06-2021 7:59pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

Post up your own figures lads, you’ll struggle to create a situation where the number of false allegations are greater than the number of unreported rapes.

Until you do I’m happy with my statement and my supporting evidence.

I wasn't the one making the bold claims. I was calling someone's anecdotal claims as b0llix. I followed up with a solution on how to increase the conviction percentages and provided basic sums on how that would work.

There are plenty of resources for this and here's one which includes how to do percentages => https://www.dummies.com/education/math/basic-math/

We have a huge problem here in Ireland and elsewhere. Basic steps are not taken when false allegations are made. Allegations are assumed to be true and the accused is treated like a criminal even when accompanied with CCTV to prove the allegation is false.

Until the people making false claims and the authorities who are negligent in their duties are held to account, there will be no change and innocent people will continue to have their lives ruined while genuine victims of rape are less likely to report it because the conviction rates are so low....which brings us back to why they are so low.

Smee_Again · 22-06-2021 8:06pm

Every post where you don’t post actual figures is an admission that you can’t find any to refute my claim.

jimwallace197 · 22-06-2021 8:10pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

Post up your own figures lads, you’ll struggle to create a situation where the number of false allegations are greater than the number of unreported rapes.

Until you do I’m happy with my statement and my supporting evidence.

You see, because people like you don't understand there is a stigma around men who are falsely accused of rape (no smoke without fire), alot of them refuse to do anything about it after the fact. But often silently they try to carry on after their lives have been ruined in more ways than one.

You only have to look at the ridiculously biased attitude posters such as bubblypops have in relation to these crimes to know men are not treated fairly at all with regard to these crimes. This is someone who has claimed frequently to be a member of our AGS protection services unit but can you imagine someone like her investigating a crime such as this that you have been falsely accused of. God knows what would happen.

Men who have been falsely accused of or charged with sexual assault or rape often want it to go away so it doesnt destroy their reputation further. Its not the type of thing they are going to openly discuss to anonymous telephone callers ffs. Pull your head out of your ass.

[Deleted User] · 22-06-2021 8:10pm

There's no talking to some posters, the belief that every not guilty verdict equals a vexatious complaint, is just ridiculous.

jimwallace197 · 22-06-2021 8:13pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

Every post where you don’t post actual figures is an admission that you can’t find any to refute my claim.

What are you claims? A 20 year old study conducted in conjunction with the Dublin rape crisis centre who rely on government for their funding.

[Deleted User] · 22-06-2021 8:13pm

jimwallace197 wrote: »

You only have to look at the ridiculously biased attitude posters such as bubblypops have in relation to these crimes to know men are not treated fairly at all with regard to these crimes. This is someone who has claimed frequently to be a member of our AGS protection services unit.

I have never ever claimed any such thing.
Never.
Post reported.

jimwallace197 · 22-06-2021 8:16pm

bubblypop wrote: »

There's no talking to some posters, the belief that every not guilty verdict equals a vexatious complaint, is just ridiculous.

There's no talking to you more like it. You are not even willing to contemplate false accusations might occur. Always willing to believe the so called victim even if he or she is talking absolute nonsense.

And then even when realizing a false accusation might have occurred, refusing to accept any accountability. I'm sure you fit in very well with AGS.

False rape accusation...who would you believe?

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