Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

fergus1001 · 20-06-2021 09:24PM

Amadan Dubh wrote:

One thing I read in the last week was related to the institutionals being reluctant to drop rents, which we understand is linked to book values of the assets, how drops in asset values could trigger breaches of covenants in finance arrangements related to those assets, which of course could lead to forced asset sales by the lenders. The Central Bank also mentioned this in its risk report; the risk of asset fire sales and its impact on the property market. Liquidity and easy money is there until isn't.

this could be like why I suspect the reits are lobbying hard against a vacant home tax, at the moment they will leave them empty instead of renting them below their book value

if you look at grand canal dock and other places with apartments beside the tech giants there are only a few lights on in the evening because all the workers are going remote working

Darc19 · 20-06-2021 09:28PM

Yurt! wrote: »

You haven't been looking very hard in that case. Local authorities are on a leasing rampage and it's been widely covered in the press.

Don't believe the utter sh1te written in the press.

The Indo (herald and Sunday world) are the worst.

Pure and utter bullsh1t is written in those rags.

Yurt2 · 20-06-2021 09:33PM

Marius34 wrote: »

It would be nice if you would share those developments. So we all can get some knowledge.
I can easily find for you to share examples with less than 40% of social housing.

Knock yourself out. This would be fairly typical.

https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/home/600130/forty-six-limerick-homes-sell-for-11m.html

The latest phase of private housing dev. (46 units) fully purchased by Limerick council. Puts the estate pushing 40% when taken with the other social units in the estate. This is not an unusual development across the country.

You're welcome btw. Knowledge is always at hand if you ask politely.

Edit: Should point out in case anyone gets pedantic, the purchase by CHI is financed by Limerick council and tenants are sourced from the housing list. Tenancies are managed by CHI.

hometruths · 20-06-2021 09:51PM

Yurt! wrote: »

Knock yourself out. This would be fairly typical.

https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/home/600130/forty-six-limerick-homes-sell-for-11m.html

The latest phase of private housing dev. (46 units) fully purchased by Limerick council. Puts the estate pushingstates 40% when taken with the other social units in the estate. This is not an unusual development across the country.

You're welcome btw. Knowledge is always at hand if you ask politely.

Don’t forget the developments which are 100% leased for social housing eg KCC To Rent 125 Homes In Naas For A 25 Year Period

This is becoming increasingly common, which always makes me wonder...

If The justification for govt buying 750k apartments in D4 for social housing is so we can better integrate the tenants and avoid the ghettos of the past, how does leasing entire estates tick the integration and ghetto avoidance box?

Yurt2 · 20-06-2021 10:00PM

schmittel wrote: »

Don’t forget the developments which are 100% leased for social housing eg KCC To Rent 125 Homes In Naas For A 25 Year Period

This is becoming increasingly common, which always makes me wonder...

If The justification for govt buying 750k apartments in D4 for social housing is so we can better integrate the tenants and avoid the ghettos of the past, how does leasing entire estates tick the integration and ghetto avoidance box?

It's poor policy for sure for a number of reasons. The 750k apartments were Dun Laoghaire if I recall correctly.

Housing lists need to be tackled, there's no two ways about it. The case I'm making, and others besides, is that they shouldn't be tackled like above.

Affordable and social housing delivered at scale on public lands. Mixed tenure, and mixed-income. We're slowly reaching a consensus in Ireland about this. There are many implacably opposed for their own various reasons, but people will need to get with the programme eventually. The model of delivery at present is beyond broken and just about p*sses everybody off.

Marius34 · 20-06-2021 10:01PM

Yurt! wrote: »

Knock yourself out. This would be fairly typical.

https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/home/600130/forty-six-limerick-homes-sell-for-11m.html

The latest phase of private housing dev. (46 units) fully purchased by Limerick council. Puts the estate pushing 40% when taken with the other social units in the estate. This is not an unusual development across the country.

You're welcome btw. Knowledge is always at hand if you ask politely.

Edit: Should point out in case anyone gets pedantic, the purchase by CHI is financed by Limerick council and tenants are sourced from the housing list. Tenancies are managed by CHI.

From what I understand houses in these development were never for sale for private residents. which is basically a whole different development from the ones in discussion for middle class. Thus it's not pushing to 40%, or whatever. Which shows that it's very hard to find such development for middle class, that has been bought ~40% by social housing entities.

P.s. please don't get personal, I'm trying to keep specifically on the topic.

Yurt2 · 20-06-2021 10:05PM

Marius34 wrote: »

From what I understand houses in these development were never for sale for private residents. which is basically a whole different development from the ones in discussion for middle class. Thus it's not pushing to 40%, or whatever. Which shows that it's very hard to find such development for middle class, that has been bought ~40% by social housing entities.

P.s. please don't get personal, I'm trying to keep specifically on the topic.

Ah here. The goalposts have left the stadium at this stage. You pretty snarkily asked for an example and I did your homework for you and put it under your nose and you still don't like it.

Marius34 · 20-06-2021 10:13PM

Yurt! wrote: »

Ah here. The goalposts have left the stadium at this stage. You pretty snarkily asked for an example and I did your homework for you and put it under your nose and you still don't like it.

I simply was referring to your response on new developments. As it's appear a very rare case

Yurt! wrote: »

'Low' is the keyword here and a movable feast. There will be a minimum of 10% already, and from friends that have purchased recently, new developments in most urban areas appear to be pushing 40% between part IV houses and leases to council anyway.

Yurt2 · 20-06-2021 10:14PM

Marius34 wrote: »

I simply was referring to your previous post. As it's appear a very rare case

This is not a good faith conversation. I'm out.

am_zarathustra · 20-06-2021 10:14PM

Yurt! wrote: »

It's poor policy for sure for a number of reasons. The 750k apartments were Dun Laoghaire if I recall correctly.

Housing lists need to be tackled, there's no two ways about it. The case I'm making, and others besides, is that they shouldn't be tackled like above.

Affordable and social housing delivered at scale on public lands. Mixed tenure, and mixed-income. We're slowly reaching a consensus in Ireland about this. There are many implacably opposed for their own various reasons, but people will need to get with the programme eventually. The model of delivery at present is beyond broken and just about p*sses everybody off.

100% is a disaster but people have a fear of estates with large numbers of county council houses as the councils are toothless. In fairness to the housing bodies they will actually tackle disruptive tentants whereas the council won't. I know estates completely destroyed by one family and the council then housed the oldest child when they hit age in the same estate. They are violent and intimidate older residents. When you spend 400000 grand on a house you want to do your best to avoid this

It's awful for the 95% of social housing recipients who are very decent people, often working jobs society just doesn't value enough but it's difficult to convince people to gamble their only shot at home ownership.

20-06-2021 10:16PM

Marius34 wrote: »

From what I understand houses in these development were never for sale for private residents. which is basically a whole different development from the ones in discussion for middle class. Thus it's not pushing to 40%, or whatever. Which shows that it's very hard to find such development for middle class, that has been bought ~40% by social housing entities.

P.s. please don't get personal, I'm trying to keep specifically on the topic.

My brother bought in an estate in North Dublin last summer.
According to him over 40% were social and bought by housing authorities. This is typical of all new estates from what I can see.

hometruths · 20-06-2021 10:20PM

bubblypop wrote: »

My brother bought in an estate in North Dublin last summer.
According to him over 40% were social and bought by housing authorities. This is typical of all new estates from what I can see.

It seems to be very common. How valuable is HTB and shared equity etc if you’re virtually guaranteed to be buying a house in a development of possibly majority social housing as new build estates seem to be going.

Marius34 · 20-06-2021 10:26PM

bubblypop wrote: »

My brother bought in an estate in North Dublin last summer.
According to him over 40% were social and bought by housing authorities. This is typical of all new estates from what I can see.

Which development?
Normally its 10%

20-06-2021 10:45PM

Marius34 wrote: »

Which development?
Normally its 10%

10 is the amount set aside for the local authorities

Housing authorities buy houses and take people off the housing lists, this particular housing authority bought one full road.
They buy they same as private buyers or international reits.

Marius34 · 20-06-2021 10:53PM

bubblypop wrote: »

10 is the amount set aside for the local authorities

Housing authorities buy houses and take people off the housing lists, this particular housing authority bought one full road.
They buy they same as private buyers or international reits.

Yes, but all the new estates that I know for private resident sales, are only around 10% for social housing. You can read as well on boards people discussing about new developments of interest, they all see around 10%. I'm not sure where this notion come in this thread that its around 40%. Which development you speaking about? Nobody seams to be able to figure out, which are those estates, thus it maybe just anecdotical gossips.

Yurt2 · 20-06-2021 11:00PM

Marius34 wrote: »

Yes, but all the new estates that I know for private resident sales, are only around 10% for social housing. You can read as well on boards people discussing about new developments of interest, they all see around 10%. I'm not sure where this notion come in this thread that its around 40%. Which development you speaking about? Nobody seams to be able to figure out, which are those estates, thus it maybe just anecdotical gossips.

From reality Marius.

20-06-2021 11:09PM

Marius34 wrote: »

Yes, but all the new estates that I know for private resident sales, are only around 10% for social housing. You can read as well on boards people discussing about new developments of interest, they all see around 10%. I'm not sure where this notion come in this thread that its around 40%. Which development you speaking about? Nobody seams to be able to figure out, which are those estates, thus it maybe just anecdotical gossips.

Are you not listening?
10% social housing is what they have to set aside for local authorities.
There is nothing stopping housing authorities buying up as many properties as they want and then renting them to social tenants.
Same as there is nothing stopping private reits buying as many as they want and renting to whoever they want, mostly hap tenants from local authority housing lists.
Do you even live in Ireland? How have you missed this?

Marius34 · 20-06-2021 11:12PM

bubblypop wrote: »

Are you not listening?
10% social housing is what they have to set aside for local authorities.
There is nothing stopping housing authorities buying up as many properties as they want and then renting them to social tenants.
Same as there is nothing stopping private reits buying as many as they want and renting to whoever they want, mostly hap tenants from local authority housing lists.
Do you even live in Ireland? How have you missed this?

So which development was that?
Talk is cheap.

20-06-2021 11:15PM

Marius34 wrote: »

So which development was that?
Talk is cheap.

That particular one was Knightsgate in Rush, I believe other estates out there are similar but I didn't really care

Do you not believe it or something? How have you missed this? This is normal.

Cal4567 · 20-06-2021 11:18PM

Yurt! wrote: »

From reality Marius.

I know a few developers through extended friends and families. Some new estates have just 10
% social as per the regulations whilst others have more. Sometimes the developer is asked by the council or housing body if he will sell more to them. I hear the council has the final say on that.

Could be then 20% going to social, maybe more. Different examples. Sometimes, it's a developer who cannot shift the last few properties, other times he is keen to sell the council as much as they will take. Even pre covid the market had become sluggish mainly due to the CB lending rules.

This is now fairly common across the industry. Please if anyone else in the industry is reading this, do confirm as well. Don't just take it from me.

Marius34 · 20-06-2021 11:25PM

Cal4567 wrote: »

I know a few developers through extended friends and families. Some new estates have just 10
% social as per the regulations whilst others have more. Sometimes the developer is asked by the council or housing body if he will sell more to them. I hear the council has the final say on that.

Could be then 20% going to social, maybe more. Different examples. Sometimes, it's a developer who cannot shift the last few properties, other times he is keen to sell the council as much as they will take. Even pre covid the market had become sluggish mainly due to the CB lending rules.

This is now fairly common across the industry. Please if anyone else in the industry is reading this, do confirm as well. Don't just take it from me.

I agree with this, makes sense, which is very different from saying that it's around 40% are purchased for social housing in new developments.

Amadan Dubh · 20-06-2021 11:29PM

Darc19 wrote: »

I literally would sit the next 6 months out.

There's substantial building activity in Dublin and the commuter towns and circa 15,000 new units will come on stream in the next 6-8 months

Then you also have the natural new availability due to death of elderly people. Close to 90% of over 70's own their home, so add circa 10,000 - 15,000 homes from this area.

Then you have people finding they can work from home, it won't happen overnight, but a decent number in starter homes will look at moving into more rural locations especially if they have a connection.

Market is overheated. The estate agents are jumping for joy and saying it will continue (they NEVER get it right) and the sensationalist media esp the Indo are putting house price inflation scaremongering headlines every second day - just as they did in 2006.

Wait it out

When my anecdotal experience shows me that entry level workers, just graduated from college are talking about saving for deposits to buy their home and a Dublin courier the other week was telling me about the home he is trying to buy in Wexford as prices are too mad in Wicklow and Dublin, I see that there is no point in playing the game anytime soon. Personally, we would consider buying but at this point I think we'll be waiting at least 2 and up to 6 years, possibly even after the next election, before parting with this hard fought deposit we've been saving.

What worries me about buying is that only new builds with Help the Brickie are worth looking at in terms of houses that are affordable, the back gardens are non-existent and I'd hate to take on a mortgage, losing my deposit cash to get it, only for the estate to have social issues. Also, our rent is extortionate but that is clearly a bubble that will deflate, I am extremely confident about that. But what I would be fearful of is taking on a mortgage in the current environment, more than what we had hoped to take on due to the swollen demand, which is a bit below the rent currently but then in a few years interest rates shoot up and the mortgage is closer to the extortionate rent we were paying! I want to see a few years of stability or declines before taking the plunge, it's too volatile to jump into a mortgage anytime soon

MacronvFrugals · 20-06-2021 11:31PM

Marius34 wrote: »

I agree with this, makes sense, which is very different from saying that it's around 40% are purchased for social housing in new developments.

Take the Taoiseach's "The state is the biggest player in the market" comment

Now lets think the state is building feck all, aside from HAP we know this money is being ploughed into lease deals all over the country

20-06-2021 11:38PM

Cal4567 wrote: »

Could be then 20% going to social, maybe more. Different examples. Sometimes, it's a developer who cannot shift the last few properties, other times he is keen to sell the council as much as they will take. Even pre covid the market had become sluggish mainly due to the CB lending rules.

This is now fairly common across the industry. Please if anyone else in the industry is reading this, do confirm as well. Don't just take it from me.

I see a small development (55 units) in the local paper here being bought by the local council.

https://www.kfmradio.com/news/localnews/warm-welcome-for-the-acquisition-of-social-homes-in-celbridge/

It seems to be the whole thing. Soc Dems fairly worried about investors buying the whole estate in Maynooth a fortnight ago, lots of concern about the futures of first time buyers, no worries today when the council bought the whole lot of this place. :pac:

I love the language the media uses. Councils "purchase" or "acquire" houses. "Vulture" funds "snap them up"

Amadan Dubh · 20-06-2021 11:41PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Take the Taoiseach's "The state is the biggest player in the market" comment

Now lets think the state is building feck all, aside from HAP we know this money is being ploughed into lease deals all over the country

You honestly cannot make this up;

Look up Fiona McCabe at Tuath and Claire Solon at Clúid. I have screenshotted their LinkedIn work experiences for ease of reference. These individuals hold high up positions in these "approved housing bodies" while at the same time act for foreign investors!

These housing bodies go cap in hand to the State for funding, looking for our tax money, they advise on social housing as if they are some sort of legitimate authority on the state of the housing crisis. Meanwhile, they have the investors infiltrating their operations in order to essentially funnel our tax money into the pockets of those investors whose interests they represent outside of their approved housing body roles.

It is a total hoodwink, bordering on a criminal scam in my view. The property market in Ireland is being artificially inflated and the individuals are suffering as we are being forced to pay high costs for housing as a result.

Browney7 · 20-06-2021 11:42PM

Marius34 wrote: »

So which development was that?
Talk is cheap.

The underbidder on the now infamous estate in Maynooth that the big bad REIT bought was an AHB (think it was cluid). They were looking at taking the whole thing if I recall from the reports

javaboy · 20-06-2021 11:44PM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

When my anecdotal experience shows me that entry level workers, just graduated from college are talking about saving for deposits to buy their home and a Dublin courier the other week was telling me about the home he is trying to buy in Wexford as prices are too mad in Wicklow and Dublin, I see that there is no point in playing the game anytime soon. Personally, we would consider buying but at this point I think we'll be waiting at least 2 and up to 6 years, possibly even after the next election, before parting with this hard fought deposit we've been saving.

Out of curiosity, assuming for the sake of simplicity no major change in rents or interest rates, have you worked out what kind of drop in price you'd need to happen for it to be worth your while holding off for 2 years? ...or 6?

But what I would be fearful of is taking on a mortgage in the current environment, more than what we had hoped to take on due to the swollen demand, which is a bit below the rent currently but then in a few years interest rates shoot up and the mortgage is closer to the extortionate rent we were paying! I want to see a few years of stability or declines before taking the plunge, it's too volatile to jump into a mortgage anytime soon

You could fix for a longer term to protect against this. In the meantime, your mortgage payments are buying you equity.

Marius34 · 20-06-2021 11:45PM

Browney7 wrote: »

The underbidder on the now infamous estate in Maynooth that the big bad REIT bought was an AHB (think it was cluid). They were looking at taking the whole thing if I recall from the reports

I think buying whole development is way more common than buying half or so.

Amadan Dubh · 20-06-2021 11:47PM

javaboy wrote: »

Out of curiosity, assuming for the sake of simplicity no major change in rents or interest rates, have you worked out what kind of drop in price you'd need to happen for it to be worth your while holding off for 2 years? ...or 6?

You could fix for a longer term to protect against this. In the meantime, your mortgage payments are buying you equity.

Yes, actually I read about the new long term fixed rates now being offered. Smart move to take those on I think.

On the first point, no cost analysis has been done other than to calculate how much more of a deposit we hope to have at the end of each year. We are lucky, I'm not going to lie, with how much we can save while renting. The bigger the deposit the less the mortgage when we eventually dive in is how I see it. The main thing is to not have a mortgage lasting past the age of 60 but ideally not past 55. We'll see how that goes!

20-06-2021 11:47PM

Browney7 wrote: »

The underbidder on the now infamous estate in Maynooth that the big bad REIT bought was an AHB (think it was cluid). They were looking at taking the whole thing if I recall from the reports

The AHB getting burned seemed to kick it all off.

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting