Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

schmittel wrote: »

Whilst it is hardly a crash, a small decline is borne out by the data (from your own source):

I'd agree with Hubertj that prices were stabilising, which is desirable. The indicators suggest demand was levelling off.

Covid seems to have disrupted this mightily.

Depends on which bit you choose to snip, I suppose.

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

They were on the decline pre-covid in Dublin anyway, particularly south Dublin. Covid has been a dead cat bounce to the market.

They were not. There where some price decrease in Dublin in 2019, my guess it was due to uncertainty around the Brexit, but it was short lived, and got stabilized before Covid.

So now we are saying the fabled property crash was ABOUT to happen in 2019, buts it been stalled because of Covid?

Prices were relatively flat in Dublin in 2019, as someone who was actively bidding on properties at the time.

Me and our partner finally signed for our first house on the 1st of June 2020, whilst the house won't be built for a while, we decided to go and check the market again as we do every so often, the house we purchased are now being valued for €25,000 more than we signed ours for in over a month or so

Wanderer78 wrote: »

great point, but to be honest, i somewhat disagree, they truly do believe what theyve been doing will actually work, and the disturbing thing is, its not just the politicians themselves, but also their advisors, its disturbing to see such a large group of well educated and experienced people unable to accept this, theyre causing their own falling

Whether they truely believe it or not amounts to whether they are deluded or dishonest. Personally I've stopped trying to make the distinction.

Ozark707 wrote: »

Source?

The UK house price index for April 2021

Zenify wrote: »

Honestly, I don't see that as a bad price... If you put 500k into it it would be worth over 3m.

That property to me is far better value than a 4 bed semi detached houses selling for 1m in a house estate. Like many are in South Dublin.

I'm not sure it would be as easy as that it's not a big site and you won't be able to go up either, I don't think the site lends itself to a much bigger house and if it did 500k wouldn't touch the sides. Also as much as I love coliemore Road I'm not sure I'd want to be quite that close to the sea!

Anyway could well be wrong I'll keep an eye on it.

Timing belt wrote:

Loans are not included as they are not property transactions and even when a loan is in default it is unlikely that the financial institution will take possession of the property due to how difficult it is to repossess

Much appreciated, thanks

Would it be fair to say that Reits and/or investment/pension funds that are all subject to very favourable tax policies were the primary buyers of distressed loans from Nama and the banks at significant discount?

If repossession is next to impossible. Would a high proportion of these houses fall in to rental status as the occupant is unable to pay the mortgage. The rent would be heavily subsidised by HAP payments from the state. Mortgage to rent scheme. HAP payments have ballooned in the last few years

Given the trajectory of rents and interest rates over the last decade, rent payments would exceed the original mortgage repayments by some distance.

This scenario would make incredible profits on assets that were purchased usually at 50% of book value and thanks to taxpayer funded housing programs like HAP, mortgage to rent will be know performing well above the original loan when it was a performing loan.

Can the situation play out like this, that a distressed asset that normally dampens a market is magically turned into a super normal profit asset thus adding fuel to the market.

It would be consderably cheaper for the state to give the asset to the non paying mortgage holder for free

schmittel wrote: »

Absolutely, of course it depends.

You snipped the month on month price change I whereas I snipped the year on year price change. Others can decide which is more likely to be representative of a trend in prices.

It also obviously depends when the data you snip was posted. You were disputing the following post:



And as such it have been better to quote the latest data available pre Covid, i.e Dec 2019, which the IT reported as:



Reading that it sounds to me like Amadan Dubh was spot on, but yes, as you say, it depends on which bit you choose to snip, I suppose.

Exactly, now the argument against this is perhaps the lack of a "trend" in the declines but I remember that there was a lot of commentary about uncertainty in the market at that time, with Brexit somehow being blamed for the market slowing down. However, it appeared the market had peaked due to mortgage lending rules capping further price increases. Demand was still high for housing that people could actually afford. Covid threw this on its head however, with people realising, due to government measures, they could save a lot more money and could get to their deposit levels in order to afford these homes that would've been out of reach just a year earlier. For investors, the QE covid pump continued to push them into property to chase those yields and also pushed up demand while at the same time construction sites were shuttered.

The owners of assets, whether it be stocks or properties, must view covid restrictions as a blessing with unlimited QE flooding the markets just when it looked like questions would need to be asked about how sustainable continued growth would actually be. The big question is how things can continue to tick along without significant QE and government supports? Assets are uncoupled from the real economy so when we are looking to see how businesses can recover and employees get back to work/higher salaries again, for property and stocks in general there is no "recovery" needed as they have thrived the last 15 months.

schmittel wrote: »

Opinion piece in the IT on one of our biggest problems - Time for some common sense on mortgage arrears



Whilst hardly a tsunami of articles, there has been a definite uptick in the amount of media coverage on the subject over the past 6 months. It feels like five years ago no journalist would have dared to write the above.

Are we seeing the start of a shift public opinion? I certainly hope so, it's about time.

The societal cost of mortgage default which I agree needs airing, and the current flood of international hot money into our property market are independent of eachother.

If the hot money withdrew tomorrow and prices fell as a result we'd still need to have that debate about default and repossession.

I don't see one driving the other.

Looking at the new poll released today by Ireland Thinks/ Mail on Sunday


The overall numbers are fairly interesting but the 18-34 demographic is particularly striking, listening to Varadkar's "40,000" speech it seems reversing this trend needs to be given top priority!

Today we publish a poll with Ireland Thinks that shows an overwhelming 45% :eek: of 18-34-year-olds support Sinn Féin compared to 17% for Fine Gael and six per cent for Fianna Fáil.