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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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  • #2702
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,755 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    So I'm in the Dublin market at the moment and my experience is that people are seriously overbidding on properties. Like ~20% above asking in less than 48 hours.

    Anybody else seeing this?


  • #2703
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,156 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    PommieBast wrote: »
    It is not a failure. It is a roaring success of bailing out those who paid too much for their property in the 2000's. They government just won't admit the latter and affordable housing are incompatible, and they made their choice of who is the real priority.

    great point, but to be honest, i somewhat disagree, they truly do believe what theyve been doing will actually work, and the disturbing thing is, its not just the politicians themselves, but also their advisors, its disturbing to see such a large group of well educated and experienced people unable to accept this, theyre causing their own falling


  • #2704
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Hubertj wrote: »
    That’s exactly what I’m asking!! his view on it!!!

    Apologies, got the wrong end of the stick, my bad.

    I suspect he didn't expand on it because he's well aware of how financial markets work - i.e in an environment in which large capital balances are subject to negative interest rates, finding alternative sources of investment for capital projects currently earning in excess of 5% will not be a problem.


  • #2705
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,184 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Deleted User wrote: »
    So I'm in the Dublin market at the moment and my experience is that people are seriously overbidding on properties. Like ~20% above asking in less than 48 hours.

    Anybody else seeing this?

    This is a more appropriate thread with better answers: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058047890


  • #2706
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    great point, but to be honest, i somewhat disagree, they truly do believe what theyve been doing will actually work, and the disturbing thing is, its not just the politicians themselves, but also their advisors, its disturbing to see such a large group of well educated and experienced people unable to accept this, theyre causing their own falling

    It's because they benefitted from it, this was an intentional policy decision to get to this scenario where we find ourselves. It isn't that they can't see the problem they just don't agree it is as bad as is made out. They got people back working after the crash and helped reinflate the bubble to get 00s buyers out of neg equity, that was their plan and they achieved it. However, they succeeded by 2015/2016 but didn't seem to have a plan from then on as they were surprised the recovery was so quick and easy. Now they're fumbling around, scarred from the negative equity, high unemployment environment from when they took power and are struggling to adapt the necessary extreme and rapid changes to their policies in order to solve this new crisis. It looks like the iron price will be paid at the next election as a result.


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  • #2707
    Villa05
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Amadan Dubh wrote:
    Nothing to see here, Bank of Ireland dumping €350m non-performing loans off their books into the shadows. Central Bank says banks are robust and well-capitalised. The loans disappear off into the market where the Central Bank does not have a lot of oversight. I note it says PIMCO may have bought the bonds/notes which reference the performance of these loans and the Central Bank probably regulates the PIMCO fund(s) which have bought the bonds but won't have visibility on these funds' portfolios.

    Can anyone point me to this report that states the proportion of properties owned by investment funds/Reits, would be interested to know if bad loans sold by banks are included


  • #2708
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Can anyone point me to this report that states the proportion of properties owned by investment funds/Reits, would be interested to know if bad loans sold by banks are included

    With these loans, they are not actually owned directly by a fund. They are owned by an SPV. The fund only invests in bonds which reference the performance of the loans. You won't find any report which can outline the extent to which funds (incl. Reits) directly and indirectly own the properties as I don't think it's possible to collate this data.


  • #2709
    Villa05
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    PommieBast wrote:
    It is not a failure. It is a roaring success of bailing out those who paid too much for their property in the 2000's. They government just won't admit the latter and affordable housing are incompatible, and they made their choice of who is the real priority.

    Bailing out the banks/industry required new entrants to the housing market to be sacrificed.
    Calculated decision on the basis that younger transient voters are less likely to vote over home owning voters
    There may be a realisation now following marriage and abortion referendums that younger voters are much more likely to vote on issues that affect them plus the growing frustration of home owning parents of future entrants to the market
    The shared ownership scheme is there answer (2 birds with the one stone). They believe if these young voters have skin in the game they'll migrate to supporting an inflationary policy on housing so it's a race against time to get these voters to walk into the trap.
    You can smell the air of desperation in bringing in the policy. They claim that they have put in controls to prevent inflation yet implementing the policy when supply is close to record lows

    I don't think it's going to work as they'll be mostly outbid by reits in high demand areas

    Will be very interesting to see how it plays out. Personally I think it will lead to more overpriced housing in the wrong areas, just like the last bubble


  • #2710
    Villa05
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,909 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Hubertj wrote:
    What I meant was - if tax breaks are stopped would the institutional investors leave as some claim? If they did leave what are alternative sources of finance for construction.


    I know it was a point made on the late debate linked earlier, but what you need for housing is seed capital, the esri suggested doubling from 2 to 4 billion
    Suppose that extra money was made available to builders with planning at very low interest rates to kick start supply.
    I believe there are 9k construction workers still on pup


  • #2711
    Jmc25
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 299 ✭✭Jmc25


    Villa05 wrote: »
    The shared ownership scheme is there answer (2 birds with the one stone). They believe if these young voters have skin in the game they'll migrate to supporting an inflationary policy on housing so it's a race against time to get these voters to walk into the trap.

    Very true. That line of thinking starts from the point of protecting current prices and working from there.

    Essentially the idea is that if we push prices to the level where developers are "incentivised" to build (ie can build at close to zero risk and always make a profit no matter what), then more houses will be built. The affordability problem can then be solved by offering grants of some kind - shared equity, HTB, whatever - to first time buyers

    In the ideal scenario within this line of thinking, this leads to loads of houses being built as developers seek out easy profits, young people now with skin in the game, having massively overpaid for an asset which they don't want to depreciate, and current homeowners unaffected as the value of their property is maintained or increased.

    If this had have worked out as described above, I think most people, while probably not being delighted about the whole thing, would buy an overpriced house, subsidized by the state, and just move on with their lives.

    But it hasn't worked, and a significant amount of people would now like to try some different policies and Sinn Fein are articulating different policies and that's why they're surging in the polls. Whether those policies will work, nobody knows until they're tried, but I think a lot of people feel it can't be much worse than what's happening now.


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  • #2712
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 776 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Mgit wrote: »
    I bought a 3bed semi in dundalk in 2004 for 185k which crashed to 105k at bottom, at the peak a 3bed in estate sold for 317k slowly over 10 years prices recovered bit by bit, for last 3 years prices for 3bed houses in same estate were selling for max 175k. There seems to be a big change in last months though, houses going up for sale are going sale agreed in a few days and 2 bed went on 175k and sold in a couple of days so there seems to be heat in the market now. All of a sudden 3 beds are selling for about 200k.

    Will be interesting to see if prices flat line again at that, I agree that it's a two tier market in dundalk between New and second hand 2 or 3 bed estate houses
    I think we have "bottleneck" effect at the moment when many people could not buy houses due Covid and now they came on market.More likely we will have property prices down again as this happened just before Covid.
    If we look at the statistic the property prices were falling just before Covid
    So how the prices rising up if many people been unemployed and some incomes went down by half ?
    I dont know how prices for new property are calculated in Ireland but we have price per square mtr in Lithuania
    The builders saying that new built property prices are rising but in reality the apartments getting smaller when price stay the same.What is the less square mtrs and the same price equal bigger price per square mtr


  • #2713
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    Revolution 1917 wrote: »
    I think we have "bottleneck" effect at the moment when many people could not buy houses due Covid and now they came on market.More likely we will have property prices down again as this happened just before Covid.
    If we look at the statistic the property prices were falling just before Covid
    So how the prices rising up if many people been unemployed and some incomes went down by half ?
    I dont know how prices for new property are calculated in Ireland but we have price per square mtr in Lithuania
    The builders saying that new built property prices are rising but in reality the apartments getting smaller when price stay the same.What is the less square mtrs and the same price equal bigger price per square mtr

    Were they?


  • #2714
    Timing belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Can anyone point me to this report that states the proportion of properties owned by investment funds/Reits, would be interested to know if bad loans sold by banks are included

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2021/non-householdsector/

    Loans are not included as they are not property transactions and even when a loan is in default it is unlikely that the financial institution will take possession of the property due to how difficult it is to repossess


  • #2715
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 776 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    Were they?

    I keep eye on property prices in Ireland every day since 2004 and have Perfect Memory.
    Before Covid property prices in 2019 in Dublin was falling.
    Economy of Ireland had more other problems in 2018/2019 but we speak about property prices here.
    Hope google search will refresh your memory


  • #2716
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    Revolution 1917 wrote: »
    I keep eye on property prices in Ireland every day since 2004 and have Perfect Memory.
    Before Covid property prices in 2019 in Dublin was falling.
    Economy of Ireland had more other problems in 2018/2019 but we speak about property prices here.
    Hope google search will refresh your memory

    I'd trust the data rather than your memory to be honest.

    Prices were pretty flat, but definitely not "falling"--> link here


  • #2717
    Marius34
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Jmc25 wrote: »
    Very true. That line of thinking starts from the point of protecting current prices and working from there.

    Essentially the idea is that if we push prices to the level where developers are "incentivised" to build (ie can build at close to zero risk and always make a profit no matter what), then more houses will be built. The affordability problem can then be solved by offering grants of some kind - shared equity, HTB, whatever - to first time buyers

    In the ideal scenario within this line of thinking, this leads to loads of houses being built as developers seek out easy profits, young people now with skin in the game, having massively overpaid for an asset which they don't want to depreciate, and current homeowners unaffected as the value of their property is maintained or increased.

    If this had have worked out as described above, I think most people, while probably not being delighted about the whole thing, would buy an overpriced house, subsidized by the state, and just move on with their lives.

    But it hasn't worked, and a significant amount of people would now like to try some different policies and Sinn Fein are articulating different policies and that's why they're surging in the polls. Whether those policies will work, nobody knows until they're tried, but I think a lot of people feel it can't be much worse than what's happening now.

    and this is a big mistake, that we take things for granted, there is always a way to make it worst.


  • #2718
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 776 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    I'd trust the data rather than your memory to be honest.

    Prices were pretty flat, but definitely not "falling"--> link here

    Property prices fell almost 1% in Dublin in 2019

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/property-prices-fell-almost-1-in-dublin-in-2019-1.4172611

    The first signs of recession
    And now we have property prices rising ?
    After economy were dead for 2 years ?


  • #2719
    am_zarathustra
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭am_zarathustra


    Revolution 1917 wrote: »
    Property prices fell almost 1% in Dublin in 2019

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/property-prices-fell-almost-1-in-dublin-in-2019-1.4172611

    The first signs of recession
    And now we have property prices rising ?
    After economy were dead for 2 years ?

    People in the middle classes, especially upper middle classes have more cash because there was nothing else to spend it on. Their parents had more cash for the same reason. Most people I know are renovating or buying or putting patios down etc. More money (cash savings) higher prices, more people with a deposit.


  • #2720
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    More from David McWilliams on housing in today's IT:

    He sums up the problem with our housing market pretty well:
    The net result of this wealth effect is that Irish people are conflicted about house prices based on whether we are owners or not. Before you own, you want prices to fall. As soon as you buy, you want prices to rise.

    Hence governments pursue policies that push prices higher because homeowners represent higher numbers, who are more likely to vote:
    Successive governments have aided and abetted this. In fact, there has not been an intervention in the Irish housing market designed to lower the price of housing. Every intervention has had the effect of driving up house prices.

    But this cannot last for ever, no matter how much you might like to talk of supply and demand:
    The latest polling data reveal the split between renters and mortgage holders in terms of voting intention. In the past five months, every month support for the Government among renters has fallen, from 38 per cent in January to 21 per cent in May. This is staggering. At the same time, support for the Coalition among mortgage holders has firmed, from 43 per cent in January to 46 per cent in May.

    The writing is on the wall. Sooner or later the government will change tack and favour lower prices. It's inevitable.


  • #2721
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 776 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    am_zarathustra wrote: »
    People in the middle classes, especially upper middle classes have more cash because there was nothing else to spend it on. Their parents had more cash for the same reason. Most people I know are renovating or buying or putting patios down etc. More money (cash savings) higher prices, more people with a deposit.

    The only middle class which had incomes and was taking mortgages was nurses from Asia and India.
    The other middle class was getting 350 PUP against them 1000 home weekly
    Some IT as they call middle class from multinationals was enjoy work in Dublin from parents home in Mayo
    The situation now tell me that government and builders are trying push consuming any price forward
    The government no need unemployment on building sites and problems in a banks again
    Government need people out of PUP and VAT collected
    For that reason the only things we see in media is communist propaganda Country Moving Economy on Sky High Buy property Now !
    I am very well kno what is lobby and how builders buy media trying sell as much is possible.Please Forget about Independent Media because wages there are paid by builders and lobby !
    That is all about "property prices " rising from my side .


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  • #2722
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Property prices fell almost 1% in Dublin in 2019

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/property-prices-fell-almost-1-in-dublin-in-2019-1.4172611

    The first signs of recession
    And now we have property prices rising ?
    After economy were dead for 2 years ?

    1% reduction over 12 months covering multiple transactions sounds fairly stable in my opinion. You can argue prices are stable at too high a level but the objective should be stability, not ridiculous fluctuations.


  • #2723
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    Were they?

    They were on the decline pre-covid in Dublin anyway, particularly south Dublin. Covid has been a dead cat bounce to the market.


  • #2724
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,156 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    schmittel wrote: »
    More from David McWilliams on housing in today's IT:

    He sums up the problem with our housing market pretty well:



    Hence governments pursue policies that push prices higher because homeowners represent higher numbers, who are more likely to vote:



    But this cannot last for ever, no matter how much you might like to talk of supply and demand:



    The writing is on the wall. Sooner or later the government will change tack and favour lower prices. It's inevitable.

    wont happen with a ffg lead government, theyre committed to their falling now


  • #2725
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 776 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Hubertj wrote: »
    1% reduction over 12 months covering multiple transactions sounds fairly stable in my opinion. You can argue prices are stable at too high a level but the objective should be stability, not ridiculous fluctuations.
    My point is the recession started in 2019
    People could not afford buy property in Dublin that why prices started falling
    Because people could not afford buy property in Dublin they started buy property around (same as in 2007 ) that why prices started rising countrywide
    The situation on property market stabilized just because we have bottleneck effect after Covid and we will back to 2019 situation soon
    The prices are rising because suppliers and builders has loans which they did not pay during Covid and they have pay now
    For example I bought shop and couple lorries but because I did not sell anything I loosing money and have bring prices up to rich my profit plan
    More,more,more
    But sadly this has nothing to do with reality which we had in 2019 already !
    The problem is that you can not sell 100 houses 1 million each
    To 80 buyers with 1 million in pocket
    And 20 buyers with 500K in pocket
    And Central bank does not let banks to give 500K more mortgage to those who has only 500K
    So the only thing we have step Back to 2019 and bring price to same level until more people will afford pay price
    We are in Buble Right Now
    But government no need this buble and those who sell houses try make government borrow and make you and me pay the debt
    This not gona work this time because your and my incomes are too low to pay for it and if we will we will never buy house and government will have pay social welfares to the builders .


  • #2726
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Revolution 1917 wrote: »
    My point is the recession started in 2019
    People could not afford buy property in Dublin that why prices started falling
    Because people could not afford buy property in Dublin they started buy property around (same as in 2007 ) that why prices started rising countrywide
    The situation on property market stabilized just because we have bottleneck effect after Covid and we will back to 2019 situation soon
    The prices are rising because suppliers and builders has loans which they did not pay during Covid and they have pay now
    For example I bought shop and couple lorries but because I did not sell anything I loosing money and have bring prices up to rich my profit plan
    More,more,more
    But sadly this has nothing to do with reality which we had in 2019 already !
    The problem is that you can not sell 100 houses 1 million each
    To 80 buyers with 1 million in pocket
    And 20 buyers with 500K in pocket
    And Central bank does not let banks to give 500K more mortgage to those who has only 500K
    So the only thing we have step Back to 2019 and bring price to same level until more people will afford pay price
    We are in Buble Right Now
    But government no need this buble and those who sell houses try make government borrow and make you and me pay the debt
    This not gona work this time because your and my incomes are too low to pay for it and if we will we will never buy house and government will have pay social welfares to the builders .

    Sorry but I have no idea what point you are attempting to make. Was there a recession in 2019? I am saying that a functioning market should not see significant fluctuations in price. Significant increases or decreases are not a good thing, we can argue about the causes. Variables such as Demand, supply, availability of credit, regulation (too much or too little) should be better balanced.


  • #2727
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 776 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Sorry but I have no idea what point you are attempting to make. Was there a recession in 2019? I am saying that a functioning market should not see significant fluctuations in price. Significant increases or decreases are not a good thing, we can argue about the causes. Variables such as Demand, supply, availability of credit, regulation (too much or too little) should be better balanced.
    The balance will never be reached because people looking for profit
    The smart try get money of stupid
    That is the main rule and engine of the market
    You have only 2 choices or take side of smart or take side of stupid
    Choice is yours


  • #2728
    Bubbaclaus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭Bubbaclaus


    Neutral guy?


  • #2729
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,184 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Amadan Dubh wrote: »
    They were on the decline pre-covid in Dublin anyway, particularly south Dublin. Covid has been a dead cat bounce to the market.

    That is not really borne out by data: https://assets.gov.ie/38239/e91b58540d8546c1bf069b8ef73e0b4e.pdf


  • #2730
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 776 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/chawke-family-considers-next-steps-as-186m-scheme-rejected-1.4597024


    Charlie Chawke and his family have not yet decided whether to proceed with efforts to build a contentious €186 million apartment scheme in south Dublin after An Bord Pleanála turned down permission for the development.

    Cant understand what the point of it ? The first they cry that builders has to build more apartments now they cry that is not great


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  • #2731
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    cnocbui wrote: »
    That is not really borne out by data: https://assets.gov.ie/38239/e91b58540d8546c1bf069b8ef73e0b4e.pdf

    Whilst it is hardly a crash, a small decline is borne out by the data (from your own source):

    Screenshot-2021-06-19-at-21-21-24.png

    I'd agree with Hubertj that prices were stabilising, which is desirable. The indicators suggest demand was levelling off.

    Covid seems to have disrupted this mightily.


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