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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • #4382
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    AdamD wrote: »
    Unless I'm misreading something, the UK don't have anything coming close to the worst numbers in Europe currently.
    I suppose that's true if you count Georgia as a European country.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

    Of all those countries, only the UK and Portugal are seeing case numbers rise.


  • #4383
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,665 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    seamus wrote: »
    I suppose that's true if you count Georgia as a European country.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

    Of all those countries, only the UK and Portugal are seeing case numbers rise.

    I dont know how much trust I'd put in those figures - apparently Ireland has a 7day rate of 43 per 100k?

    But our 14day rate is 105 per 100k.. suspect figures to say the least


  • #4384
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,570 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    timmyntc wrote: »
    I dont know how much trust I'd put in those figures - apparently Ireland has a 7day rate of 43 per 100k?

    But our 14day rate is 105 per 100k.. suspect figures to say the least

    Not sure what's suspect about it.
    It means the last 7 day average of cases has reduced compared to the 7 days preceding it.
    So cases are going down.


  • #4385
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,042 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    timmyntc wrote: »
    I dont know how much trust I'd put in those figures - apparently Ireland has a 7day rate of 43 per 100k?

    But our 14day rate is 105 per 100k.. suspect figures to say the least
    It's not a site I use, but why do you feel those figures are suspect?


  • #4386
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    timmyntc wrote: »
    I dont know how much trust I'd put in those figures - apparently Ireland has a 7day rate of 43 per 100k?

    But our 14day rate is 105 per 100k.. suspect figures to say the least


    The numbers are probably a bit off, but nevertheless the UK remains up there with the highest numbers, and growing.

    our world in data


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  • #4387
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,665 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Not sure what's suspect about it.
    It means the last 7 day average of cases has reduced compared to the 7 days preceding it.
    So cases are going down.
    Ficheall wrote: »
    It's not a site I use, but why do you feel those figures are suspect?

    It implies cases have more than halved in the last 7 days.
    They havent dropped that much


  • #4388
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,042 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    timmyntc wrote: »
    It implies cases have more than halved in the last 7 days.
    They havent dropped that much
    Or that one figure is for 7 days and the other for 14...?


  • #4389
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,570 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    timmyntc wrote: »
    It implies cases have more than halved in the last 7 days.
    They havent dropped that much

    It doesn't imply that at all.
    The 14 day rate includes the most recent 7 day rate.
    105 for 14 days, 43 for the last 7.
    Means the preceding 7 day rate was 62. So a week on week reduction of ~30%


  • #4390
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,042 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Aside: do you guys prefer
    "The data is wrong" or "The data are wrong"?


  • #4391
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,665 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Or that one figure is for 7 days and the other for 14...?
    Wolf359f wrote: »
    It doesn't imply that at all.
    The 14 day rate includes the most recent 7 day rate.
    105 for 14 days, 43 for the last 7.
    Means the preceding 7 day rate was 62. So a week on week reduction of ~30%

    oops my bad

    Thought it was a 7 day average per 100k, it was just 7 days total per 100k.


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  • #4392
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    timmyntc wrote: »
    I dont know how much trust I'd put in those figures - apparently Ireland has a 7day rate of 43 per 100k?

    But our 14day rate is 105 per 100k.. suspect figures to say the least

    Why is that suspect? Our rate is falling. Last 7 days - 43, previous 7 days 62, 14 day 105


  • #4393
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,892 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    14 day figure is misleading as to how successful the measures are at combatting spread.
    Germany has been consistently quoting 7 day results. Someone testing positive a fortnight ago and then going in to quarantine is just a distraction from the measures that need to be implemented today.


  • #4394
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,042 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Deleted User wrote: »
    14 day figure is misleading as to how successful the measures are at combatting spread.
    Germany has been consistently quoting 7 day results. Someone testing positive a fortnight ago and then going in to quarantine is just a distraction from the measures that need to be implemented today.
    So is 7 the magic number? If 14 is misleading.. what about 3, 5, 10, for example?


  • #4395
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Aside: do you guys prefer
    "The data is wrong" or "The data are wrong"?
    Both are used interchangeably, I'm a singular man myself!


  • #4396
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Ficheall wrote: »
    So is 7 the magic number? If 14 is misleading.. what about 3, 5, 10, for example?
    The 14 day is the standard one used to record prevalence, NPHET are using the 5 day which gives insights into immediate trends, the 7 day is just a slightly longer view of that data.


  • #4397
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,892 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    That is what 7 day reporting looks like right down to a few square KM and the news reports whether there is a drop or increase on the same day last week so you can see if people were partying too hard at teh weekend.
    https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4


  • #4398
    goingnowhere
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,403 ✭✭✭goingnowhere


    Current Irish numbers based on the daily reports

    105/100k/14
    312/5 day
    317/7 day (which would give ~46/100k/7)

    Puts us mid tier

    Central Europe is well below us in numbers and really heading down quickly.


  • #4399
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Deleted User wrote: »
    That is what 7 day reporting looks like right down to a few square KM and the news reports whether there is a drop or increase on the same day last week so you can see if people were partying too hard at teh weekend.
    https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4

    Ireland had something not too far away, down to LEA level, which is maybe 25k people
    https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/8c8ba825c8774bca8cc57cbf3ec7774b

    But you may have heard of the massive cyber attack talking out the entire HSE IT infrastructure and possible understand that a reporting dashboard may not be top priority in terms of system recovery


  • #4400
    celt262
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,779 ✭✭✭celt262


    goingnowhere wrote: »
    Current Irish numbers based on the daily reports

    105/100k/14
    312/5 day
    317/7 day (which would give ~46/100k/7)

    Puts us mid tier

    Central Europe is well below us in numbers and really heading down quickly.

    Is the Delta Variant as contagious as is been made out or have England maybe opened up a bit quicker and that is the issue there?


  • #4401
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,413 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Ireland had something not too far away, down to LEA level, which is maybe 25k people
    https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/8c8ba825c8774bca8cc57cbf3ec7774b

    But you may have heard of the massive cyber attack talking out the entire HSE IT infrastructure and possible understand that a reporting dashboard may not be top priority in terms of system recovery

    Yes, last I saw it was updated only as far as mid May, which is such a shame as it was a great source of information .


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  • #4402
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    celt262 wrote: »
    Is the Delta Variant as contagious as is been made out or have England maybe opened up a bit quicker and that is the issue there?
    It seems to be more contagious but they had too many outbreaks through religious festival superspreading events. Low vaccine takeup and hesitancy in some groups is also an issue.


  • #4403
    jhegarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,131 ✭✭✭jhegarty


    celt262 wrote: »
    Is the Delta Variant as contagious as is been made out or have England maybe opened up a bit quicker and that is the issue there?

    The UK rollout was based around single dose astrazeneca with a long gap.

    Worked great until Delta came along.

    However their deaths are still in single digits instead of the 1,000+ from January.


  • #4404
    Sobit1964
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Sobit1964


    celt262 wrote: »
    Is the Delta Variant as contagious as is been made out or have England maybe opened up a bit quicker and that is the issue there?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-delta-variant-symptoms-headache-b1865531.html#/comments

    Delta has very 'coldlike' symptoms, like a runny nose, headache, and sore throat. The worry is that people aren't getting tested with these sort of symptoms and they may still be very contagious.


  • #4405
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    jhegarty wrote: »
    However their deaths are still in single digits instead of the 1,000+ from January.
    We just don't know where this is going to go yet. There's typically a 2-4 week lag between case rises and deaths. The UK is starting to see an increase in hospitalisations, and our past experience is that deaths will surely follow.

    But with the vaccine (even one dose) theoretically providing that extra protection against serious illness and death, it's really a waiting game now to see what happens next.


  • #4406
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Tony has today said that antigen tests should not be used as a 'green light' for "risky activities" per the Irish Times.

    I'm still waiting to hear the impact of the previous risky activities, which were so risky he was 'absolutely shocked', as opposed to having only previously been 'shocked' or 'worried'.

    He should be asked to explain why there appears to be no spike as a result of what happened that weekend, otherwise he is not going to sound like an authority on what is a risky activity.


  • #4407
    LineOfBeauty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,211 ✭✭✭LineOfBeauty


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    Tony has today said that antigen tests should not be used as a 'green light' for "risky activities" per the Irish Times.

    I'm still waiting to hear the impact of the previous risky activities, which were so risky he was 'absolutely shocked', as opposed to having only previously been 'shocked' or 'worried'.

    He should be asked to explain why there appears to be no spike as a result of what happened that weekend, otherwise he is not going to sound like an authority on what is a risky activity.

    I do think this is something worth asking more by the media. How can the main person the government are taking medical advice from basically throw a hissy fit on social media about disgraceful and unsafe behavior when there is not a scrap of evidence to prove that there was any spike, or have been any spikes at all from outdoor mixing. It doesn't add up.


  • #4408
    ZX7R
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    LineOfBeauty wrote: »
    I do think this is something worth asking more by the media. How can the main person the government are taking medical advice from basically throw a hissy fit on social media about disgraceful and unsafe behavior when there is not a scrap of evidence to prove that there was any spike, or have been any spikes at all from outdoor mixing. It doesn't add up.

    Its believed he will tell the oireachtas committee that there is lack of evidence for the use of rapid antigen testing in certain activity,but will be ok for meat factory's and the like.
    Rte news


  • #4409
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    ZX7R wrote: »
    Its believed he will tell the oireachtas committee that there is lack of evidence for the use of rapid antigen testing in certain activity,but will be ok for meat factory's and the like.
    Rte news

    This would be strange. UHL hospitals group published research that suggested serial antigen testing in the meat industry setting wasn't very effective at detecting infection.


  • #4410
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Turtwig wrote: »
    This would be strange. UHL hospitals group published research that suggested serial antigen testing in the meat industry setting wasn't very effective at detecting infection.
    Useful where one might expect a higher prevalence, in conjunction with PCR testing seems to be the NPHET position.


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  • #4411
    ZX7R
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Useful where one might expect a higher prevalence, in conjunction with PCR testing seems to be the NPHET position.

    Could be wrong but other members of nphet seem very quiet about it, in fact did professor Nolan not want the use of them in college's.


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