Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings

Boggles · 09-06-2021 09:25AM

Masala wrote: »

Can someone help me on this query.

How many can attend an indoor meeting now? We want to hold an AGM for our sports club and can’t find out how many can be allowed in?.. also is there a time limit and other restrictions still apply (2 meters per searpt) etc

If we move to July or August.... would that allow more...??

Many thanks

July 5th, 50 indoors, 6 in a pod. 2 meters, Separate exit and entry.

More in August, number not specified.

Or take a punt and have it outside or online.

TomSweeney · 09-06-2021 10:05AM

Lumen wrote: »

What's your analysis?

I'm not any kind of mathematician but that analysis seems fine to me.

Even Israel, which removed many restrictions at the start of March, has operated a kind of vaccine apartheid for the last three months, whilst also operating strict border biosecurity, testing and tracing and mask compulsion in indoor public spaces.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/01/world/middleeast/israel-covid-restrictions.html

Compare to the UK which is still under more significant restrictions and is fighting outbreaks, due to some combination of variants brought in by poor border security, different vaccines and lower vaccination levels.

Can you point to a country which has crushed Covid like Israel has (i.e. from a high level of infection over this last winter) without the same measured steps?

Texas is an outlier but I don't think anyone is claiming that they are near herd immunity yet, and they are probably benefiting from restrictions in surrounding states and international travel restrictions.

Strange the way Israel with 80+% of population are vaccinated don't allow vaccinated visitors yet ...

09-06-2021 10:19AM

TomSweeney wrote: »

Strange the way Israel with 80+% of population are vaccinated don't allow vaccinated visitors yet ...

Except they do

https://www.gov.il/en/Departments/Guides/flying-to-israel-guidlines?chapterIndex=5

Lumen · 09-06-2021 10:24AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Except they do

https://www.gov.il/en/Departments/Guides/flying-to-israel-guidlines?chapterIndex=5

Well sort of. You can apply for exemption from isolation but only with a serological (antibody) test.

TomSweeney · 09-06-2021 10:25AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Except they do

https://www.gov.il/en/Departments/Guides/flying-to-israel-guidlines?chapterIndex=5

You know what I mean, they still need to go into quarantine.

The world has gone insane over this.
Completely unnecessary for a fully vaccinated person to go into quarantine in a destination country with 81% vaccinated population.

Utter madness.

Lumen · 09-06-2021 10:32AM

TomSweeney wrote: »

You know what I mean, they still need to go into quarantine.

The world has gone insane over this.
Completely unnecessary for a fully vaccinated person to go into quarantine in a destination country with 81% vaccinated population.

Utter madness.

I think you've misunderstood. They require proof of immunity rather than just a piece of paper which could be trivially faked.

In any case, I can hardly blame them for wanting to safely enjoy their freedom for a few months whilst watching to see what happens in the outside world.

CalamariFritti · 09-06-2021 10:40AM

Graham wrote: »

Let me see if I have this right. Anyone that disagrees with you and broadly agrees with the current approach is only doing so because they've been manipulated by the media.

Definitely not because they've actually thought this out and formed a considered opinion that happens to disagree with yours.

I think the last bit we can definitely rule out at this point. It certainly wasn't considered and based on real science or anything.

As to me claiming to have the only knowledge of this? No, I dont think so. But its a tentative attempt in getting to an explanation how we ended up in this mess. Even the most ardent advocates of the corona response cant deny the obvious manipulation that has been going on.

seamus · 09-06-2021 10:48AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I fail to see the problem with suggesting 90% of the population need to be vaccinated. If you are going to be offended by reasonable, if a little conservative, estimates of the level of population immunity and projections on the required immunity to stop spread completely I suggest not watching

The prime time piece is pessimistic. Says that herd immunity "could" be as high as 90%. This is a worst-case scenario and seems unlikely. Lumen quite rightly points out that Israel still has controls in place, so it's 60-something percent is a false plateau, but we can see that it's not far off herd immunity.

The maths in the PT piece is also a little wrong. If there's 90% uptake by September of everyone who will be offered a vaccine, then we'll be around 70% vaccinated (3.5m/4.9m)

If we assume 90% coverage of everyone over 10, then that brings us up to 77% coverage.

The reality is that for the spread of disease, it is reasonable to consider adults and children as two separate populations. This is because there is a natural divide between the two, and there is a large section of the adult population who do not come into close contact with children under 12.

Coupled with what we also know about lower incidence and spread between and from children, then it's jumping the gun to assume that we need the entire population to be vaccinated to achieve effective herd immunity.
Once we have 90% coverage (or even 75%) of the population over 12, then the adult population is effectively protected. And since symptomatic infection in children is statistically rare, it seems very unlikely that the infection will be able to get a foothold in children alone without adults to spread it.

We will need to continue vaccinating children as they reach 12, or maybe even bring it down to 8 or 9.

But the idea that we cannot achieve herd immunity without vaccinating kids, and therefore that we cannot open up without herd immunity, is catastrophising.

TomSweeney · 09-06-2021 10:52AM

Lumen wrote: »

I think you've misunderstood. They require proof of immunity rather than just a piece of paper which could be trivially faked.

In any case, I can hardly blame them for wanting to safely enjoy their freedom for a few months whilst watching to see what happens in the outside world.

A QR code for a vaccine linked to your passport number can't be trivially faked, this is the whole point of the green pass system.

TomSweeney · 09-06-2021 10:54AM

Shifting the goalposts, first it was vulnerable and elderly, then 60% , then 70% ... now 90% and when we approach that it will be 100% .... and then when we approach 100% , a new scariant will emerge that will be vaccine resistant.

It's a phucking FARCE

09-06-2021 10:56AM

seamus wrote: »

The prime time piece is pessimistic. Says that herd immunity "could" be as high as 90%. This is a worst-case scenario and seems unlikely. Lumen quite rightly points out that Israel still has controls in place, so it's 60-something percent is a false plateau, but we can see that it's not far off herd immunity.

The maths in the PT piece is also a little wrong. If there's 90% uptake by September of everyone who will be offered a vaccine, then we'll be around 70% vaccinated (3.5m/4.9m)

If we assume 90% coverage of everyone over 10, then that brings us up to 77% coverage.

The reality is that for the spread of disease, it is reasonable to consider adults and children as two separate populations. This is because there is a natural divide between the two, and there is a large section of the adult population who do not come into close contact with children under 12.

Coupled with what we also know about lower incidence and spread between and from children, then it's jumping the gun to assume that we need the entire population to be vaccinated to achieve effective herd immunity.
Once we have 90% coverage (or even 75%) of the population over 12, then the adult population is effectively protected. And since symptomatic infection in children is statistically rare, it seems very unlikely that the infection will be able to get a foothold in children alone without adults to spread it.

We will need to continue vaccinating children as they reach 12, or maybe even bring it down to 8 or 9.

But the idea that we cannot achieve herd immunity without vaccinating kids, and therefore that we cannot open up without herd immunity, is catastrophising.

The scenario presented assumed 75% immunity was required for herd immunity, and the assumptions were an average efficacy of 91% and uptake of 90%. Which are not pessimistic at all.

Was the message presented by RTE that we could not continue with the reopening without herd immunity?

09-06-2021 10:59AM

TomSweeney wrote: »

A QR code for a vaccine linked to your passport number can't be trivially faked, this is the whole point of the green pass system.

You do know Israel is not in the EU?

seamus · 09-06-2021 11:03AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Was the message presented by RTE that we could not continue with the reopening without herd immunity?

Yes. A question at the opening question of the piece is, "If we want to remove restrictions, what level of take-up do we need".

The implication which followed was that the lifting of restrictions is only barely within reach and only if we vaccine every nook and cranny available to us.

gozunda · 09-06-2021 11:05AM

TomSweeney wrote: »

Shifting the goalposts, first it was vulnerable and elderly, then 60% , then 70% ... now 90% and when we approach that it will be 100% .... and then when we approach 100% , a new scariant will emerge that will be vaccine resistant.

It's a phucking FARCE

Except it wasn't and it isn't. No matter how many times you come out with that line.

09-06-2021 11:09AM

seamus wrote: »

Yes. A question at the opening question of the piece is, "If we want to remove restrictions, what level of take-up do we need".

The implication which followed was that the lifting of restrictions is only barely within reach and only if we vaccine every nook and cranny available to us.

No, It concluded 90% of over 10's. And for complete removal of restrictions, not as a prerequisite of further relaxations

gazzer · 09-06-2021 11:29AM

I'm 50 in September and was hoping to have some type of indoor party in a pub or function room. Is there any news on how many people can be allowed indoors for that month?

seamus · 09-06-2021 11:33AM

Deleted User wrote: »

No, It concluded 90% of over 10's. And for complete removal of restrictions, not as a prerequisite of further relaxations

Right, so we're agreed. The piece implied that the lifting of restrictions would not be possible without achieving a very pessimistic herd immunity target and not without vaccinating age cohorts that aren't on the schedule yet. Thus, effectively saying, "Yeah, we're not going to reach herd immunity, get used to restrictions".

It even said that the vaccination programme will "end" in September. It's easy to say, "yeah, but you know what they mean when they say that", but the reality is that none of these words are carelessly selected.

The entire piece has been structured with a negative slant. It's all in the language, "But, however, unfortunately, could be".
Even goes as far as suggesting that local outbreaks in towns and traveller communities could give rise to dangerous new variants. The statistical likelihood of such a thing so insignificant that it's not even worth saying...unless you're trying to be sensationalist.

This has been RTE throughout the pandemic.

BlaktainPicard · 09-06-2021 12:00PM

gazzer wrote: »

I'm 50 in September and was hoping to have some type of indoor party in a pub or function room. Is there any news on how many people can be allowed indoors for that month?

15 before 10 PM.

Then Covid get's a little weak so between 10pm and 1am only 6 people.

After 1am everyone needs to go home, and if they don't you are all granny killers and worse than drink drivers ....

Just have your party and invite as many people as you want, everyone more or less will be jabbed by then.

09-06-2021 12:05PM

seamus wrote: »

Right, so we're agreed. The piece implied that the lifting of restrictions would not be possible without achieving a very pessimistic herd immunity target and not without vaccinating age cohorts that aren't on the schedule yet. Thus, effectively saying, "Yeah, we're not going to reach herd immunity, get used to restrictions".

It even said that the vaccination programme will "end" in September. It's easy to say, "yeah, but you know what they mean when they say that", but the reality is that none of these words are carelessly selected.

The entire piece has been structured with a negative slant. It's all in the language, "But, however, unfortunately, could be".
Even goes as far as suggesting that local outbreaks in towns and traveller communities could give rise to dangerous new variants. The statistical likelihood of such a thing so insignificant that it's not even worth saying...unless you're trying to be sensationalist.

This has been RTE throughout the pandemic.

75% isn't pessimistic. Is quite realistic

gazzer · 09-06-2021 12:06PM

BlaktainPicard wrote: »

15 before 10 PM.

Then Covid get's a little weak so between 10pm and 1am only 6 people.

After 1am everyone needs to go home, and if they don't you are all granny killers and worse than drink drivers ....

Just have your party and invite as many people as you want, everyone more or less will be jabbed by then.

I was hoping to invite about 80. Suppose it depends on the venue and if they strictly adhere to whatever guidelines are in place for September. Anybody I'm inviting will be be fully vaccinated by then

MOH · 09-06-2021 12:43PM

Graham wrote: »

It might shock you to learn outdoor dining does not happen in isolation.

Tens of thousands of directly and indirectly connected employees working indoors are required to support the activity.

It might shock you to learn that the opening of indoor dining last summer had a negligible effect on Covid numbers.
There's no great amount of logical justification behind any of this.

charlie14 · 09-06-2021 12:48PM

JRant wrote: »

I'll take "things I never said" for 500, please Bob.

It's incredible how it keeps happening in this thread. I didn't say it was solely taken for economic reasons but that they were at the heart of the decision.

In which case Bob would tell you that you just lost your 500.

You stated "It`s OK to admit this decision was made with economic interest at heart"
I simply pointed out if it had then indoor dining and pubs would have been included. Indoor dining and pubs were not, something which in all likelihood was due to risk assessment of the potential numbers at that level of vaccination, and little or nothing to do with economics

09-06-2021 12:51PM

MOH wrote: »

It might shock you to learn that the opening of indoor dining last summer had a negligible effect on Covid numbers.
There's no great amount of logical justification behind any of this.

It might shock you to learn that from the reopening indoor dining last summer the previous downward tend ended and a 20 day doubling rate started and continued right through to level 5 restrictions being introduced in October.

Now the level to which the reintroduction contributed to the increase versus other measures is not clear, however, 20 day doubling is not negligible

charlie14 · 09-06-2021 01:39PM

TomSweeney wrote: »

Strange the way Israel with 80+% of population are vaccinated don't allow vaccinated visitors yet ...

Israel have around 81% of it`s adult population fully vaccinated, not 81% 0f its total population.
Israel has a population of 8.78M of which 2.6M are under 16. Their adult population is 6.18M. 81% of 6.18M is 5M.
Israel may have 81% of their adult population fully vaccinated, but for their total population it is 57% fully vaccinated.

TomSweeney · 09-06-2021 02:09PM

charlie14 wrote: »

Israel have around 81% of it`s adult population fully vaccinated, not 81% 0f its total population.
Israel has a population of 8.78M of which 2.6M are under 16. Their adult population is 6.18M. 81% of 6.18M is 5M.
Israel may have 81% of their adult population fully vaccinated, but for their total population it is 57% fully vaccinated.

Clutching clutching clutching ....

PhoneMain · 09-06-2021 02:18PM

I see TakeOffYourMask is trending on twitter. Maybe we can also do away with the tyranny that is seatbelts as well. They offer no benefits and are a social experiment run by Big Carma in order to test our resolve. The side effects of seat belts are well known, they decrease inspiratory effort, therefore decreasing tidal volume meaning you can breath in less oxygen and more importantly, they cause you to retain your own carbon dioxide which everyone knows can lead to irreversible brain damage! So lets try get TakeOffYourSeatbelt trending as well!

charlie14 · 09-06-2021 02:19PM

TomSweeney wrote: »

Clutching clutching clutching ....

Facts, facts, facts......

gozunda · 09-06-2021 02:23PM

MOH wrote: »

It might shock you to learn that the opening of indoor dining last summer had a negligible effect on Covid numbers. There's no great amount of logical justification behind any of this.

Unfortunately being able to prove or disprove that claim in isolation with regard to casual dining in that period isnt possible and that primarily due to the known delay between infection and people being diagnosed with Covid.

What we do know is that a slow rise in cases persisted from early June to late August, in 2020 as cases increased from 25,062 to 28,758.

Many cases were Identified as community spread and a proportion those were believed to be driven by transmissions from people catching the virus where local incidence rates were high via increasing socialising in a range of social settings, including bars and restaurants

That restaurant contribute to community spread was supported by findings published by the US Centres for Disease Control detailed that people who tested positive for the virus were about twice as likely to have reported eating recently at a restaurant.

Looking at how some other EU countries are handling the reopening of outdoor dining with similar rates of vaccination-

At present in Germany (where outdoor dining reopened on the 18th May) - there are strict conditions with regard to dining with rules set by individual states.

In Berlin for example - diners at restaurants, cafes and bars have to provide a negative test result from the last 24 hours, or must show that they have been fully vaccinated or recovered from the virus.

Restaurants can also be closed where community incidence levels of infection rise.

Whats likley is that whilst we still have a constant background of new cases restrictions here on dining are likely to continue.

TomSweeney · 09-06-2021 02:30PM

charlie14 wrote: »

Facts, facts, facts......

If you think an unvaccinated population of children (and remember flu is more deadly to kids than covid) will cause any sort of spike in hospitalizations or serious illness you're deluded - and thats some facts for you.

TomSweeney · 09-06-2021 02:31PM

PhoneMain wrote: »

I see TakeOffYourMask is trending on twitter. Maybe we can also do away with the tyranny that is seatbelts as well. They offer no benefits and are a social experiment run by Big Carma in order to test our resolve. The side effects of seat belts are well known, they decrease inspiratory effort, therefore decreasing tidal volume meaning you can breath in less oxygen and more importantly, they cause you to retain your own carbon dioxide which everyone knows can lead to irreversible brain damage! So lets try get TakeOffYourSeatbelt trending as well!

Disingenous tripe !!

Pathetic dishonest comparison, shame on you...

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings