Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings

gozunda · 06-06-2021 01:46AM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Sorry, I edited my post. You're too quick!

I mean, the US is 40 something percent fully vaccinated. But going by where i am right now its 100. No one is wearing masks, life is normal. Where is the fear of the variants here? It's non existent.

No worries

though I dont think the US is the best example for vaccination rates tbf. 80% iof all eligible adults is the set objective here. In the meantime loads of restrictions are being rolled back as our hospitalizations and ICU have declined.

People here wear masks as required - but unlike countries such as Spain there is no outdoor mask requirement. And tbf its not 'fear' of variants. Its keeping an eye on them for those listed to be of concern atm.

Rayne Wooney · 06-06-2021 02:36AM

There’s been more guards in hospital over the last 48 hours than covid admissions.

We are venturing into murky waters here, surely the government needs to admit they’ve fcuked up this reopening and need to look at an earlier reopening schedule.

200 person outdoor events officially allowed on the 5th of July when far more than this have been mixing in town over the past 3/4 weeks is just nonsensical, thousands attending events in other countries already. House parties rampant all over the country - 6 people at a table in a pub/restaurant with no silly time limit has to make more sense than what’s happening right now.

We were told hospitals were the issue, hospitals now clearly aren’t an issue. There’s been 0 admissions in the last 48 hours with 945 new cases, that’s 0% if my maths doesn’t fail me. We need to roll the 5th of July date back two weeks to the 21st at minimum, a month behind the UK is reasonable. That gives us at least another 600,000 doses, anyone who genuinely needs to be vaccinated will be doubled up by then surely, every other adult can decide for themselves what risk level they’re taking with covid from there.

ceadaoin. · 06-06-2021 02:37AM

gozunda wrote: »

No worries though I dont think the US is the best example for vaccination rates tbf. 80% iof all eligible adults is the set objective here for here. In the meantime loads of restrictions are being rolled back as our hospitalizations and ICU have declined.

People here wear masks as required - but unlike countries such as Spain there is no outdoor mask requirement. And tbf its not 'fear' of variants. Its keeping an eye on them for those listed to be of concern atm.

I'm sure the cdc etc are keeping an eye on variants, as they should. But it's not constant news reports about how terrible and scary they are. They are barely mentioned. Why do you think that is?

So the US isn't isn't best example for vaccines, yet the cases, hospitalisations and deaths are the lowest they've been for a year. If it's not vaccines then what?

Graham · 06-06-2021 02:40AM

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

We were told hospitals were the issue, hospitals now clearly aren’t an issue. There’s been 0 admissions in the last 48 hours with 945 new cases

Covid is the issue, it's still the issue although I'd absolutely agree hospitalisation figures are vastly improved.

We've all had over a year of this, the risks decrease with every week as more people get vaccinated.

Probably sensible not to put it all at risk because a few muppets can't wait another couple of weeks to drink in a beer garden/pub.

Stormyteacup · 06-06-2021 06:49AM

‘Elevated cases’ is completely subjective, and has no context other than some were hoping to have cases down to the 100s maybe?

Last week we tested 132,000 and found circa 3,000 positives.

For comparison, in the last week in June 2020 we tested 24,000 and found 116 positives.

Circulating in the population at similar levels to last Summer. Except now the danger of overwhelming hospitals has collapsed, as has deaths.

The theoretical target of 80% fully vaccinated to give herd protection is being conflated with target of 80% offered a first dose, and both are being bias-linked to reopening schedule.

If you can find any quote from government that links 80% of adults with one dose to an ‘open it all up’ I’d be surprised. Because even when 80% have had one jab we will still not be opening it all up.

80% has become a talisman for those who fear a fourth wave is a real possibility in a matter of weeks. Something to cling to to make it ‘safe’ to open up. It was never the intention to keep restrictions in place until that target was reached (target being either 80% fully vaccinated or 80% with one dose, depending on personal risk aversion level).

Based on current policy, if a new virus or an evasive variant pops up this Autumn/Winter up we will be right back to restrictions and waiting on tweaking/development of a vaccine, and then mass rollout - having spent the hay days of now crawling out of restrictions at a snails pace - there has to be some grown-up decisions made soon.

Del Griffith · 06-06-2021 07:25AM

gozunda wrote: »

Case numbers have remained elevated. .

An oxymoron if ever there was one.

NIAC Fanboy · 06-06-2021 08:05AM

Graham wrote: »

Probably sensible not to put it all at risk because a few muppets can't wait another couple of weeks to drink in a beer garden/pub.

You mention put it all at risk.

Are you saying there is a chance of another full lockdown if a few people start gathering outdoors.

Wow, that is concerning, I didn't realise things were so precarious.

NIAC Fanboy · 06-06-2021 08:12AM

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

There’s been more guards in hospital over the last 48 hours than covid admissions.

We are venturing into murky waters here, surely the government needs to admit they’ve fcuked up this reopening and need to look at an earlier reopening schedule.

200 person outdoor events officially allowed on the 5th of July when far more than this have been mixing in town over the past 3/4 weeks is just nonsensical, thousands attending events in other countries already. House parties rampant all over the country - 6 people at a table in a pub/restaurant with no silly time limit has to make more sense than what’s happening right now.

We were told hospitals were the issue, hospitals now clearly aren’t an issue. There’s been 0 admissions in the last 48 hours with 945 new cases, that’s 0% if my maths doesn’t fail me. We need to roll the 5th of July date back two weeks to the 21st at minimum, a month behind the UK is reasonable. That gives us at least another 600,000 doses, anyone who genuinely needs to be vaccinated will be doubled up by then surely, every other adult can decide for themselves what risk level they’re taking with covid from there.

Yet Tony thinks the plan is "ambitious"

Lumen · 06-06-2021 08:12AM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Last week we tested 132,000 and found circa 3,000 positives.

For comparison, in the last week in June 2020 we tested 24,000 and found 116 positives.

Circulating in the population at similar levels to last Summer.

0.5% and 2.3% positivity rates are not "similar". Neither are 17 cases/day and 429.

If we did actually have "similar" levels of cases to last June we'd be green on the proposed EU system and be looking forward to completely unrestricted travel.

If you're looking for a date when we had similar levels of cases it's end of April 2020, when our cases were dropping rapidly due to lockdown. A similar lockdown this year didn't have the same effect. Why? Some combination of different behaviour and more transmissible variants.

Your sloppy selection of data undermines the other points.

paddyisreal · 06-06-2021 09:06AM

One more day till our little risk adverse island decides to join the rest of the world with outdoor dining.

Laughable

Written from a coffee shop in Enniskillen after a rake of indoor pints and a meal last night..

Graham · 06-06-2021 09:39AM

NIAC Fanboy wrote: »

You mention put it all at risk.

Are you saying there is a chance of another full lockdown if a few people start gathering outdoors.

Wow, that is concerning, I didn't realise things were so precarious.

Wow, you really make up what you want to hear when reading posts don't you?

Is there a reason? Not enough outrage in what I actually posted?

JRant · 06-06-2021 09:41AM

Graham wrote: »

Good plan, exactly what's happening as restrictions are relaxed.

The emergency legislation was rolled over again though

gozunda · 06-06-2021 09:47AM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

I'm sure the cdc etc are keeping an eye on variants, as they should. But it's not constant news reports about how terrible and scary they are. They are barely mentioned. Why do you think that is?

So the US isn't isn't best example for vaccines, yet the cases, hospitalisations and deaths are the lowest they've been for a year. If it's not vaccines then what?

The US media are no less click friendly with scarey media stories.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/05/17/coronavirus-variant-b-1-167-first-seen-india-now-us-what-know/5099593001/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-02/biden-to-begin-vaccine-donations-abroad-as-variant-threat-looms

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/02/delta-variant-first-found-in-india-spreads-to-62-countries-hot-spots-form-in-asia-and-africa-who-says-.html

That some read these media stories and seem to want to think its all a big conspiracy is perhaps a concern in its own right .

But yes the US do seem to have made progress however the rate of vaccination hesitatincy seems to a problem for the longer term. The Biden Administration has set a goal of 70% of all U.S. adults receiving at least one vaccine shot by July 4. But the overall goal of reaching that goal or indeed herd immunity could now be out of reach

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/06/04/31-of-americans-still-hesitant-about-covid-19-vaccine-poll-finds---heres-how-that-measures-up-against-other-countries/

gozunda · 06-06-2021 10:16AM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

‘Elevated cases’ is completely subjective, and has no context other than some were hoping to have cases down to the 100s maybe?

Last week we tested 132,000 and found circa 3,000 positives.

For comparison, in the last week in June 2020 we tested 24,000 and found 116 positives.

Circulating in the population at similar levels to last Summer. Except now the danger of overwhelming hospitals has collapsed, as has deaths.

The theoretical target of 80% fully vaccinated to give herd protection is being conflated with target of 80% offered a first dose, and both are being bias-linked to reopening schedule.

If you can find any quote from government that links 80% of adults with one dose to an ‘open it all up’ I’d be surprised. Because even when 80% have had one jab we will still not be opening it all up.

80% has become a talisman for those who fear a fourth wave is a real possibility in a matter of weeks. Something to cling to to make it ‘safe’ to open up. It was never the intention to keep restrictions in place until that target was reached (target being either 80% fully vaccinated or 80% with one dose, depending on personal risk aversion level).

Based on current policy, if a new virus or an evasive variant pops up this Autumn/Winter up we will be right back to restrictions and waiting on tweaking/development of a vaccine, and then mass rollout - having spent the hay days of now crawling out of restrictions at a snails pace - there has to be some grown-up decisions made soon.

Completely subjective to who? The ERSI and other sources have already highlighted that cases remain elevated. Some seem to bizarrely want to pretend that's not the situation.

But no its not about "danger of overwhelming hospitals " and never has been - its about managing levels of infection and presently simply making sure that infection levels do not start to rise again especially considering the majority of people have only received one dose of vaccine and includes those at risk in groups 4 & 7 who have yet to be fully vaccinated.

There is no 'bias' with regards to the aim of achieving herd immunity. The goal of achieving 80% of all adults vaccinated is step towards the threshold for immunity against Covid and with that decreasing levels of the virus circulating both here and in other countries where significant progress has already been made such as Israel.

Its odd that there seems to an idea being pushed - thats there's been no "opening up" and no restrictions rolled back or that its all "snail pace". The UK are considerably ahead of us with regards vaccination and yet only about a month or do ahead of us as regards a general rollbacknof restrictions and no that's not to get into a tit for that comparison of they have this etc.

The "grown up" decisions have already been made. That we have a small number screaming otherwise because they want to go party as seen by the appalling scenes in Dublin in recent days is neither here nor there.

Graham · 06-06-2021 10:20AM

JRant wrote: »

The emergency legislation was rolled over again though

it was

and?

Restrictions are being eased.

gozunda · 06-06-2021 10:28AM

Del Griffith wrote: »

An oxymoron if ever there was one.

Well jeez Del. Thanks for the genuinely pointless comment and the grammar Godwin :rolleyes:

It remains "Covid case numbers reported daily remain at elevated levels"

Is that better?

Or if you disagree that - maybe it up with Peter Lunn of the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)

Penfailed · 06-06-2021 10:30AM

gozunda wrote: »

But no its not about "danger of overwhelming hospitals " and never has been

Really? I'm pretty sure that's what the whole, 'flatten the curve' thing was all about.

is_that_so · 06-06-2021 10:32AM

JRant wrote: »

The emergency legislation was rolled over again though

There's a level of political expediency to doing so till November and they'll look good if it's dropped well before that.

Rayne Wooney · 06-06-2021 10:35AM

Graham wrote: »

Covid is the issue, it's still the issue although I'd absolutely agree hospitalisation figures are vastly improved.

We've all had over a year of this, the risks decrease with every week as more people get vaccinated.

Probably sensible not to put it all at risk because a few muppets can't wait another couple of weeks to drink in a beer garden/pub.

What do you mean risking it all though? The vaccine has broken the link between infection and severe illness.

The hospitalisation rate has fallen from 5-6% to 1% or under.

The death rate for people under 45 is 1 in 100,000, that is from beginning of pandemic to May 2021 and a lot of the vulnerable people in this group have received a vaccine by now.

For arguments sake, we could get 100,000 new cases between June - July. Over 1,800 new cases per day will be needed to get to this point, 1,000 of these people will need hospital care and there’s a minuscule chance that 1 person will die.

The figures are baffling, we have closed the economy down, we are haemorrhage 120 million a week in PUP, we are pushing people out of the country to do things they aren’t allowed to do here. It seems the only reason for this is so that the people in power can safely shelter themselves from blame for anything down the line. It’s outrageous.

gozunda · 06-06-2021 10:39AM

Penfailed wrote: »

Really? I'm pretty sure that's what the whole, 'flatten the curve' thing was all about.

Yeah that's the odd thing - it seems to be a line regularly trotted out by some sceptics - but it really doesn't stand up to scrutiny

And if I remember correctly "the flatten the curve' was to keep infection rates down overall. And the logic for that is simple - less people infected- less sick people in the first place. But more importantly it allowed for health care services to be ramped up so those that did get sick had adequate resources needed to provide proper treatment rather than the overtly simplified 'hospitals being overwhelmed" mantra we keep seeing being trotted out.

As we know that's both death and case numbers here were amongst the lowest compared to our closest European neighbours. So I guess managing infection levels and keeping more people from getting sick in the first place did work. Thankfully.

Penfailed · 06-06-2021 11:02AM

gozunda wrote: »

And if I remember correctly "the flatten the curve' was to keep infection rates down overall.

If I remember correctly, it was to spread out the number of people requiring hospitalisation over a longer period of time, so that the health service could cope.

Beechwoodspark · 06-06-2021 11:14AM

Horrific scenes in dublin over the last few days caused by absolute scumbags completely disregarding the restrictions

There was a famous guard years ago - some may have heard tell of him - “lugs brannagan”

If only we had “lugs” commanding the guards these days

Penfailed · 06-06-2021 11:19AM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Horrific scenes in dublin over the last few days caused by absolute scumbags completely disregarding the restrictions

There was a famous guard years ago - some may have heard tell of him - “lugs brannagan”

If only we had “lugs” commanding the guards these days

Horrific? Really?

NIAC Fanboy · 06-06-2021 11:22AM

Graham wrote: »

Wow, you really make up what you want to hear when reading posts don't you?

Is there a reason? Not enough outrage in what I actually posted?

So what do you mean by "put it all at risk" then?

gozunda · 06-06-2021 11:22AM

Penfailed wrote: »

If I remember correctly, it was to spread out the number of people requiring hospitalisation over a longer period of time, so that the health service could cope.

No that's the thing. Keep infection rates down as we did and we had fewer people requiring hospitalisation in the first place. That can be seen in our overall low case numbers to date

But even when the **** hit the fan and we had over 100 000 cases in January 2021 - and the numbers needing hospital care rose dramatically - the hospitals were able to provide proper levels of care exactly because we had kept numbers low and built up the necessary resource base treat those who needed care.

Prevention as a treatment makes sense tbh .

NIAC Fanboy · 06-06-2021 11:27AM

gozunda wrote: »

Well jeez Del. Thanks for the genuinely pointless comment and the grammar Godwin :rolleyes:

It remains "Covid case numbers reported daily remain at elevated levels"

Is that better?

Or if you disagree that - maybe it up with Peter Lunn of the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)

Who the fcuk is Peter Lunn?

Just because some civil servant says something doesn't make it true.

Cases are not elevated. Elevated from what, where they were 2 months ago?

Are hospital numbers elevated. Fackin no.

Whatsisname · 06-06-2021 11:28AM

So over the last few months we’ve now had one poster say we were never told to stay at home, one poster said this was never about protecting the vulnerable and now another says this was never about protecting hospitals from being overwhelmed. We’re also constantly told by another that you don’t measure pandemics in deaths.

So what the hell is it all about then?

NIAC Fanboy · 06-06-2021 11:32AM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Horrific scenes in dublin over the last few days caused by absolute scumbags completely disregarding the restrictions

There was a famous guard years ago - some may have heard tell of him - “lugs brannagan”

If only we had “lugs” commanding the guards these days

Rioting wouldn't be top of the list in terms of risky settings for covid spread.

NIAC Fanboy · 06-06-2021 11:34AM

gozunda wrote: »

No that's the thing. Keep infection rates down as we did and we had fewer people requiring hospitalisation in the first place. That can be seen in our overall low case numbers to date

But even when the **** hit the fan and we had over 100 000 cases in January 2021 - and the numbers needing hospital care rose dramatically - the hospitals were able to provide proper levels of care exactly because we had kept numbers low and built up the necessary resource base treat those who needed care.

Prevention as a treatment makes sense tbh .

We built up fack all resource.

The HSE plan consisted of:

Frightening us all into staying away from the hospitals in January.

Cancelling every procedure possible to free up beds.

Pay through the nose for private beds.

gozunda · 06-06-2021 11:42AM

NIAC Fanboy wrote: »

Who the fcuk is Peter Lunn? Just because some civil servant says something doesn't make it true. Cases are not elevated. Elevated from what, where they were 2 months ago?
Are hospital numbers elevated. Fackin no.

Lol. No Peter Lunn is not some just 'civil servant against your own expertise and superior knowledge

That would be Professor Peter Lunn of the Economic and Social Research Institute btw

But if you disagree that "Covid case numbers reported daily remain at elevated levels" take it up with him.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Comments

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings