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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Comments

  • #4802
    Red Silurian
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,788 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Boggles wrote: »
    More transmissible = more dangerous.

    Not necessarily, they believe the Spanish flu ended largely because of a more transmissable less deadly variant, not many records were kept at the time of course so take with a pinch of salt


  • #4803
    Ballynally
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 214 ✭✭Ballynally


    From BBC northern Ireland:
    "Holidaymakers travelling to Portugal will have to self-isolate for 10 days on their return to Northern Ireland, ministers have agreed.

    The executive has decided to remove the country from its so-called green list of destinations after the UK goverment also opted to do so.

    It has now been placed on the amber list.

    The key difference is the self-isolation requirement. The move comes into force after 04:00 BST on Tuesday.

    The Northern Ireland Executive announced its green list of 12 countries, including Portugal, just two weeks ago.

    Travel to countries on the green list means you do not have to isolate on return.

    If travelling to Northern Ireland from an amber country, either directly or via another country, you must provide proof of a negative Covid test result taken up to three days before departure, book post arrival testing and also self-isolate for 10 days.".

    So much for the fully vaccinated being deemed safe to travel and not having to test and isolate. There were/are a lot of UK fully vaccinated visitors on a break or booked one in June, looking forward to safe passage. And european travellers as well.
    You can clearly see the fear of variants leading to sudden restrictions for the summer months no matter your vaccination status.
    So it seems the 'you need to be fully vaccinated to enjoy the benefits' only goes so far.

    The only thing i am not entirely sure of, reading the statement, is if it means both testing AND self isolation for everyone.
    Some media outlets talk of hotel quarantine, some don't even mention tests.
    I take it each country will make up the rules as they see fit despite the EU wide Covid Cert. You can be certain of that uncertainty..


  • #4804
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,425 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Red Silurian wrote: »
    Not necessarily, they believe the Spanish flu ended largely because of a more transmissable less deadly variant, not many records were kept at the time of course so take with a pinch of salt

    There is nothing to suggest any of the new variants are less deadly.

    So on that basis the "equation" is correct.

    It also depends on how deadly the pathogen is and many other factors.

    Extremely deadly could mean less transmissible, not because the virus doesn't make the host shed, but how the host acts.

    Ebola for instance is far too deadly and causes the host to act in a way that wide scale spread is not possible. Basically the host is normally bed ridden, i.e. not walking around shedding virus or at a massive street party in Dublin.

    Also 'less deadly' doesn't always equate in 'less deadly'. If the likes of Ebola was to evolve into being 90% less deadly for the host, then potentially we could be fúcked.

    It's why the term you constantly hear repeated "Covid is hardly Ebola" is so funny.

    It's far worse than Ebola at a global level.


  • #4805
    NIAC Fanboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭NIAC Fanboy


    Boggles wrote: »
    More transmissible = more dangerous.

    Are you concerned?


  • #4806
    NIAC Fanboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭NIAC Fanboy


    Graham wrote: »
    I'd recommend you learn how the virus is transmitted and how it mutates into 'variants'.

    Hint: it needs people

    Those mutants and variants Tony does be so concerned about?

    The ones that have about ~80 in hospital in the entire country.


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  • #4807
    _Kaiser_
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,252 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    Boggles wrote: »
    Where did I say I was concerned? I don't think I could have been clearer TBH.

    Every post from you and a few others here shows that you're concerned.

    Even in the face of the actually vulnerable now being almost entirely vaccinated and many healthy people in their 40s now getting theirs too (I got my first one on Wednesday), you continue to cling to the notion of a deadly virus despite the fact that those now unvaccinated are those who the virus statistically poses little to no risk to anyway - INCLUDING "de variants"

    You continue to attack, dismiss, and belittle anyone who points out this reality, and continue to complain about people living their lives again.

    Despite the recent efforts by some here to flip that narrative around when they got caught out by the unexpected acceleration of the reopening plan, you certainly come across as someone whose still very much concerned.


  • #4808
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,425 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    NIAC Fanboy wrote: »
    Are you concerned?

    My feelings are moot. Like I keep saying you can't tackle a global pandemic with feelings.

    What will happen will happen.


  • #4809
    Fils
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 293 ✭✭Fils


    Steven and Tony on route to Limerick as we speak. Limerick people need to get it together.


  • #4810
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,425 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    Despite the recent efforts by some here to flip that narrative around when they got caught out by the unexpected acceleration of the reopening plan

    You are surely talking about yourself here?

    When the bould Tony came back didn't you state multiple times he was going to keep us in Lockdown?

    Flip the narrative indeed.

    :rolleyes:


  • #4811
    FlubberJones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 911 ✭✭✭FlubberJones


    Boggles wrote: »
    There is nothing to suggest any of the new variants are less deadly.

    So on that basis the "equation" is correct.

    It also depends on how deadly the pathogen is and many other factors.

    Extremely deadly could mean less transmissible, not because the virus doesn't make the host shed, but how the host acts.

    Ebola for instance is far too deadly and causes the host to act in a way that wide scale spread is not possible. Basically the host is normally bed ridden, i.e. not walking around shedding virus or at a massive street party in Dublin.

    Also 'less deadly' doesn't always equate in 'less deadly'. If the likes of Ebola was to evolve into being 90% less deadly for the host, then potentially we could be fúcked.

    It's why the term you constantly hear repeated "Covid is hardly Ebola" is so funny.

    It's far worse than Ebola at a global level.

    Get Covid and then get Ebola and let us know how funny the situation is....


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  • #4812
    NIAC Fanboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭NIAC Fanboy


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    Every post from you and a few others here shows that you're concerned.

    Even in the face of the actually vulnerable now being almost entirely vaccinated and many healthy people in their 40s now getting theirs too (I got my first one on Wednesday), you continue to cling to the notion of a deadly virus despite the fact that those now unvaccinated are those who the virus statistically poses little to no risk to anyway - INCLUDING "de variants"

    You continue to attack, dismiss, and belittle anyone who points out this reality, and continue to complain about people living their lives again.

    Despite the recent efforts by some here to flip that narrative around when they got caught out by the unexpected acceleration of the reopening plan, you certainly come across as someone whose still very much concerned.

    Just remind them of the number in hospital.


  • #4813
    Fils
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 293 ✭✭Fils


    NIAC Fanboy wrote: »
    Just remind them of the number in hospital.

    The empty beds will need dusting.


  • #4814
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,425 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    FlubberJones wrote: »
    Get Covid and then get Ebola and let us know how funny the situation is....

    Quadruple Woosh?


  • #4815
    _Kaiser_
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,252 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    Boggles wrote: »
    You are surely talking about yourself here?

    When the bould Tony came back didn't you state multiple times he was going to keep us in Lockdown?

    Flip the narrative indeed.

    :rolleyes:

    I freely admit that the acceleration was unexpected and said that at the time it was because 1) people had had enough and 2) the money was running out (2 things which have been proven correct).

    It was people like your good self who then tried to claim that it was always part of the plan.

    I remember also saying that this thing would top out at about 5k deaths and I was correct there too - but here's another prediction for you... when the HSE get their IT back in order I expect a "surge" in deaths, of which much will be made by NPHET and the media. Likely it'll be announced at a time when Tony is again trying to force the Government's hand at the next decision point.


  • #4816
    Ballynally
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 214 ✭✭Ballynally


    Red Silurian wrote: »
    Not necessarily, they believe the Spanish flu ended largely because of a more transmissable less deadly variant, not many records were kept at the time of course so take with a pinch of salt

    It is common knowledge amongst immunologists that variants tend to be of a lesser danger but more transmissable, like you said. The flu is a good example, killing an x amount of people each year. Yet we dont test for the flu before boarding an airplane (but maybe we should).
    The new variant like India/Delta spread like wildfire through countries through super spreader events, mainly indoors, just like in a flu epidemic.
    Its mainly though not exclusively an issue of badly recourced healthcare facilities in poor countries.
    In the west with relatively good healthcare systems the new variants will become dominant through natural selection and higher transmissability but, and here is the key point, will be less HARMFUL, even for unvaccinated younger persons who have a better natural immune system anyway.They will shake it off, like the flu. Some will end up in hospital, linked to comorbidities, obesity etc, but in much diminished numbers.
    Vaccinated older people will be as safe as can be expected.

    So, the way i see it, the whole panic about new variants has been blown out of proportion. The vaccines do seem to work against them, infection rates seem to go up but hospital numbers will flatten or possibly raise somewhat, death rates continue to go down but sustained panic creating havoc.
    The link infection>hospitalization>deaths has been broken and replaced by a new one: variant>panic>restrictions>uncertainty>fear. Science has been put in the back seat.


  • #4817
    NIAC Fanboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭NIAC Fanboy


    Boggles wrote: »
    My feelings are moot. Like I keep saying you can't tackle a global pandemic with feelings.

    What will happen will happen.
    Boggles wrote: »
    Where did I say I was concerned? I don't think I could have been clearer TBH.

    So are you concerned or not, it's a simple question.


  • #4818
    NIAC Fanboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭NIAC Fanboy


    Fils wrote: »
    The empty beds will need dusting.

    Remember all those beds in citywest, or the nightingale hospitals in the UK.

    Barely saw action, the virus, at its peak never got close to what was predicted, and here were are with a handful in hospital and still hearing about Tony's shock and concern

    He is the boy that cried wolf


  • #4819
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,425 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    I freely admit that the acceleration was unexpected and said that at the time it was because 1) people had had enough and 2) the money was running out (2 things which have been proven correct).

    Or vaccines.
    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    It was people like your good self who then tried to claim that it was always part of the plan.

    Really, citation please?

    I do remember you claiming Tony was going to keep us in lockdown for the summer.
    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    I remember also saying that this thing would top out at about 5k deaths and I was correct there too - but here's another prediction for you...

    Mitigation largely worked. Great really.
    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    when the HSE get their IT back in order I expect a "surge" in deaths, of which much will be made by NPHET and the media. Likely it'll be announced at a time when Tony is again trying to force the Government's hand at the next decision point.

    Oh Dear, we are back to Tony locking us down for summer.


  • #4820
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,425 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    NIAC Fanboy wrote: »
    Remember all those beds in citywest, or the nightingale hospitals in the UK.

    Because they weren't fit for purpose nor had they adequate staff to man them.


  • #4821
    Banana Republic 1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    https://www.channel4.com/news/holidays-cancelled-portugal-added-to-travel-amber-list-by-uk


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  • #4822
    NIAC Fanboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭NIAC Fanboy


    Boggles wrote: »
    Because they weren't fit for purpose nor had they adequate staff to man them.

    I didnt know that, have you a link?


  • #4823
    Ballynally
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 214 ✭✭Ballynally


    Boggles wrote: »
    More transmissible = more dangerous.

    No. LESS dangerous. Lots of evidence throughout the decades.
    Go and do some study.
    Red Silurian wrote: »
    Not necessarily, they believe the Spanish flu ended largely because of a more transmissable less deadly variant, not many records were kept at the time of course so take with a pinch of salt

    Not only the spanish flu but every other Corona virus. Flu, the common cold with the 200+ variants etc.
    We will end up with a less harmful virus with variants in an endemic situation.
    We might need a combined flu/Covid19 shot every year for some time to come.


  • #4824
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,425 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Ballynally wrote: »
    No. LESS dangerous. Lots of evidence throughout the decades.
    Go and do some study.

    Nope.

    Pertinent to this disease we just got a very glaring recent example in India, shortly before that Brazil.

    These Islands got our own stark example at Christmas, the rest of Europe followed after.

    Good piece on it from January.

    https://theconversation.com/why-the-covid-19-variants-are-so-dangerous-and-how-to-stop-them-spreading-153535

    It's just basic maths.
    A variant like B.1.1.7 with a higher transmission rate is actually more dangerous than one with a higher fatality rate.

    Sure, a 50% increase in the fatality rate would cause 50% more deaths. But because of exponential growth, shown in the graph, a 50% increase in transmissibility causes 25 times more cases in just a couple of months if left unchecked.

    That would lead to 25 times more deaths at the original mortality rate.

    Maybe pay attention to this actual pandemic.


  • #4825
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,869 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    NIAC Fanboy wrote: »
    Remember all those beds in citywest, or the nightingale hospitals in the UK.

    Barely saw action, the virus, at its peak never got close to what was predicted, and here were are with a handful in hospital and still hearing about Tony's shock and concern

    He is the boy that cried wolf

    Stop and think for a second. You're giving out that the number of people who were predicted to be sick never happened and that the people responsible for advising on measures to limit those numbers were crying wolf.

    Would it ever occur to you that the measures that were recommended and implemented might have been successful, thereby limiting the number of people who had to be hospitalised?

    You're essentially having your cake and eating it here. Like a client giving out to his IT contractors.......when things go well "what are we paying you for". and when the sh1t hits the fan? "what are we paying you for?"

    If there were zero restrictions in place and the hospitals were all overrun, I guarantee you we'd have the same knuckleheads calling for his head then as we do calling for his head now because it was too severe. Damned if you do.....


  • #4826
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    NIAC Fanboy wrote: »
    Those mutants and variants Tony does be so concerned about?

    The ones that have about ~80 in hospital in the entire country.

    Most people would think it's a good thing that we've managed to keep them out so effectively.


  • #4827
    NIAC Fanboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭NIAC Fanboy


    Graham wrote: »
    Most people would think it's a good thing that we've managed to keep them out so effectively.

    Like we kept the UK variant out


  • #4828
    Ballynally
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 214 ✭✭Ballynally


    Boggles wrote: »
    Nope.

    Pertinent to this disease we just got a very glaring recent example in India, shortly before that Brazil.

    These Islands got our own stark example at Christmas, the rest of Europe followed after.

    Good piece on it from January.

    https://theconversation.com/why-the-covid-19-variants-are-so-dangerous-and-how-to-stop-them-spreading-153535

    It's just basic maths.

    Maybe pay attention to this actual pandemic.

    Ok, pay attention to the trajectory of every known pandemic in history.
    Then factor in vaccinations (learned immunity), health care facilities and poverty.
    Then look at where and how they spread.
    Like you said: its just basic math.
    Over and out.Ramble on.Like you have been for some time.
    I guess the ignore button has some function..


  • #4829
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,610 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Graham wrote: »
    Most people would think it's a good thing that we've managed to keep them out so effectively.

    If a variant is more transmissible- then it will get into the country and eventually become dominant because its more transmissible than current covid variants in the country. So it will take over.

    The only possible way to get around this is to go zero covid - which as we know is unworkable in the extreme.


  • #4830
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,425 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Ballynally wrote: »
    Ok, pay attention to the trajectory of every known pandemic in history.
    Then factor in vaccinations, health care facilities and poverty.
    Then look at where and how they spread.
    Like you said: its just basic math.
    Over and out.Ramble on.Like you have been for some time.
    I guess the ignore button has some function..

    Nope. We are talking this pandemic and the current variants.

    There is only one person rambling.


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  • #4831
    NIAC Fanboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭NIAC Fanboy


    Boggles wrote: »
    Nope. We are talking this pandemic and the current variants.

    There is only one person rambling.

    Are you concerned.


This discussion has been closed.
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