Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings

gozunda · 31-05-2021 02:44PM

NIAC Fanboy wrote: »

Nothing has been debunked. The only major outbreak we have had since the start was Christmas when it was full on indoors.

Outdoor gatherings have been happening for months now and no surge.

The study as detailed is of little use as it measured infection rates when there was feq all outdoor group activities going on.

What we have had since Christmas is a near constant and relatively high number of new cases. That these cases have not being translated into more hospitalisations appears to be due to the ongoing programme of vaccinations and ongoing restrictions preventing further spread.

Thankfully outdoor activities like that seen in Dublin City centre have been far and few between.

timmyntc · 31-05-2021 02:46PM

gozunda wrote: »

The study as detailed is of little use as it measured infection rates when there was feq all outdoor group activities going on.

What we have had since Christmas is a near constant and relatively high number of new cases. That these cases have not being translated into more hospitalisations appears to be due to the ongoing programme of vaccinations and ongoing restrictions preventing further spread.

Thankfully outdoor activities like that seen in Dublin City centre have been far and few between.

???

Theyve been happening for months. Every bit of decent weather has people lining the canals, or portobello, stephens green and more to meet up and drink cans.

And there has been no resulting surge.

OwenM · 31-05-2021 02:47PM

Graham wrote: »

I know, look at the UK. No threat of another wave at all.

Oh wait.

Ok so what is a 'threat' of another wave, how is that manifesting apart from ISAG style fearmongering?

Cases are at tiny numbers but have bumped up by a tiny amount realtive to the population, hospitalisation still declining @ 870 down 39 on last week.

gozunda · 31-05-2021 02:48PM

timmyntc wrote: »

If you had read the article I supplied, its actually a reference to international studies so the lack of outdoor activities in Ireland has no bearing on this. So not in the bin.

So you have no proof only suppositions that people would lie to contact tracers about attending protests. Right. I think your claim about contact tracing, which has no evidence to support it, should be put in the bin.

Hmm, so like concert conditions perhaps? If only there were international test events recently to back up the impact of covid spread in these scenarios...

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/covid-test-pilot-events-15-cases-west-end-revival-june-21-oliver-dowden-b937048.html

Well that's the thing I did.

You referenced an IT link - where the headline referred to a study which claimed that " Outdoor transmission accounts for 0.1% of State’s Covid-19 cases" Now the bizarre thing about that study is that it was done here at a period when there was feq all outdoor mass events or gatherings. So really not relevant. So yeah bin.

But what you're saying is that we should use absolutely any study elsewhere to try and prove that what went on in Dublin City Centre the other day was absolutely grand. Well I think that can be put in the bin as well.

And "International" ie individual case studies done at different times have an automatic relevance to Ireland because?

To your new link. - organised events and concerts are nothing like what went on in DCC no matter which way you spin it.

And no not my "suppositions" btw . People reluctant to talk to contact tracers / admitting to taking the proverbial is something which has been well noted. Surprising you didn't find that in your Google search tbf.

I think I'll leave you at with all that in the bin. Oops my bad there were no bins apparently

Vaccinated30 · 31-05-2021 02:49PM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

If there is no spike in cases following this weekend (I guess you would expect to see by the end of next week, which would be too early to assign to outdoor dining recommencing), then what would the reason be for not seeing a spike?

It might be a line of thought that if you’re that reckless with health of others you may not get tested, but surely there would be onwards spread to friends and family.

Maybe there will be a spike but if not - will that be evidence enough that mass outdoor gatherings do not cause a surge in cases?

There was no spike last week or the week before when this was happening. The only reason this weekend has come to light is because of TH and his tweet.

OwenM · 31-05-2021 02:51PM

charlie14 wrote: »

Read an article recently from an ICU doctor in Sweden.
Sweden are at the same level of vaccinations as we are, but up to a short time ago were registering 7-8K new daily cases with close to 2K hospitalised and over 400 in ICU. This particular doctor said the hospitalised were those in the younger age groups not vaccinated and for the first time many cases had to be admitted directly to ICU.

I read recently that if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle, seriously, away out of here with your shroud waving.

benny79 · 31-05-2021 02:51PM

timmyntc wrote: »

???

Theyve been happening for months. Every bit of decent weather has people lining the canals, or portobello, stephens green and more to meet up and drink cans.

And there has been no resulting surge.

Whats the bets there be a surge now because Dr Holohan mentioned it :rolleyes: yet its been happen since April!

mohawk · 31-05-2021 02:52PM

rusty cole wrote: »

the gardai closed down the barge area few weeks ago and guess what?? youngsters moved from the canal to the city, and so what? they pay tax, they pay the CMO's fat wage on what's the latest quango...

the young people who vote, should vote with their feet, this is indeed very sinister when you have the Gardaí walking round gathering spots forcing folks to move on...all actioned by one tweet on a a social media platform by a non government official.. this is brown shirt stuff..I did not hear martin (the country leader) tell anyone, thou shalt not congregate in public..WTF..this is unreal.. the canal is closed and now so is part of town..

and you cannot challenge the integrity of this TWITTER (hollahan) with regards to past performance, or you get a weeks ban??? gas stuff.

I think personally the biggest problem I saw was the rubbish left everywhere, however I do know drunk people aren’t known for tidying up after themselves.
The more places that are closed down the less options that you are leaving people with. It’s sunny. Your not allowed to meet indoors. Many people have no access to a garden to relax and enjoy a couple drinks with friends. People will meet up, there must be options for them so they don’t all go to one place.

It’s made me think back to a few European cities I have visited over there years. Where there is high levels of apartment living. Not only is there parks etc but benches etc on residential streets and on hot summer evenings you would see people of every demographic outside on the benches socialising. Can Irish cities do better in terms of outdoor space for its residents.

timmyntc · 31-05-2021 02:56PM

gozunda wrote: »

Well that's the thing I did.

You referenced an IT link - where the headline referred to a study which claimed that " Outdoor transmission accounts for 0.1% of State’s Covid-19 cases" Now the bizarre thing about that study is that it was done here at a period when there was feq all outdoor mass events or gatherings. So really not relevant. So yeah bin.

But what you're saying is that we should use absolutely any study elsewhere to try and prove that what went on in Dublin City Centre the other day was absolutely grand. Well I think that can be put in the bin as well.

And "International" ie individual case studies done at different times have an automatic relevance to Ireland because?

And no not my "suppositions" btw . People reluctant to talk to contact tracers / admitting to taking the proverbial is something which has been well noted. Surprising you didn't find that in your Google search tbf.

I think I'll leave you at with all that in the bin. Oops my bad there were no bins apparently

So you only read the headline? Very good.

In my post I even quoted the article:

According to a review by the University of California of five global studies of transmission, the chances of getting Covid-19 in an indoor setting is 19 times greater than outdoors.
...
At the University of Canterbury, Prof Mike Weed studied 27,000 Covid-19 cases based on 6,000 different pieces of data. One study was of 7,500 cases in China and Japan before lockdown in both of those countries. The number of cases associated with outdoor transmission was “so small to be insignificant”, he discovered.

But you ignored this. Funny that.

So on the one side, we have international studies & test events that show outdoor presents minimal risk for covid spread.

And on the other?? Nothing. You have offered no proof that what happened in Dublin over the weekend is of any risk to public health.

charlie14 · 31-05-2021 02:59PM

OwenM wrote: »

I read recently that if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle, seriously, away out of here with your shroud waving.

Nothing to do with shroud waving. It`s just what the ICU doctor said and I have not seen any in Sweden contesting that.
Maybe you could point out if he was wrong rather than making little childish remarks

31-05-2021 03:00PM

Jesus, this is some insight into Dublin City Council today.

Utterly lazy idiots.

castletownman · 31-05-2021 03:01PM

Sure we can't have public toilets in the city centre because junkies MAY use them to shoot up.

Sure we can't have many bins dotted around the place either because some terrorist MAY plant a bomb in it during a crowded time of the year.

It's a farce. Just because a minuscule amount of people may use drugs in a public toilet shouldn't mean that everyone else is denied what is a basic human right. It's the same way they treat the pubs reopening-just because some lads get a bit loud and obnoxious with alcohol in them, doesn't mean every single patron does. Can't have loud music at all at all.

I was at the beach during the week and the girlfriend needed to go toilet. Public toilet beside the beach was locked (those pesky junkies), and you can't pop into a hotel or wherever at the moment either to strain the spuds. The proportion of bins relative to foot-fall in many towns is low as well, which is particularly noticeable now that you have to take home any food or drink item you purchase.

Ballynally · 31-05-2021 03:01PM

Graham wrote: »

I'd be interested in seeing a link to that research.

Or are you suggesting we should hold off on indoor dining/drinking/hospitality?

I will have a look at the links. I got it from both the NHS and ZOE w various investigators looking at the numbers about 10 days ago.
I have followed it ever since the UK did not stop travellers from India for 3 weeks even though it became apparent that that variant was one of concern. After travellers infected others in the UK they gave warning they were going to stop flights so more people got out before that. Thank you, Boris.
About the same time the WHO finally labeled the India variant a VOC.duh..
Now it is in Europe..

No, i am not suggesting not opening up indoors, just make sure ventilation is sorted first and foremost. It is still not debated enough imo..

gozunda · 31-05-2021 03:02PM

timmyntc wrote: »

None of that matters - the poster just mentioned a surge in cases.Test & trace dont have to figure out where it came from, just if theres a surge.

If there isnt a surge in the next week or two, its safe to say the gathering had a negligible impact on cases.

It doesn't matter 'cos you says it doesn't eh?

Again how in the name of all the holy could any relevant body be able to identify specific activities such as what went on in DCC as a surge seperate from new case numbers arising from say the ongoing relaxation of restrictions. Do you reckon they're clairvoyant or something?

Graham · 31-05-2021 03:03PM

Vaccinated30 wrote: »

There was no spike last week or the week before when this was happening. The only reason this weekend has come to light is because of TH and his tweet.

because you reckon nobody else would have noticed several thousand people partying on the streets?

stephenjmcd · 31-05-2021 03:07PM

Graham wrote: »

because you reckon nobody else would have noticed several thousand people partying on the streets?

Except it has been going on in Dublin for weeks with little said about it....

The Gardai usually clear out William Street area & temple bar area around 9.30/10pm, last few weekends it's been drive 2 or 3 public order vans down the street, a blast of the sirens and people start leaving

The weekend just gone wasn't the first time

timmyntc · 31-05-2021 03:07PM

gozunda wrote: »

It doesn't matter 'cos you says it doesn't eh?

Again how in the name of all the holy could any relevant body be able to identify specific activities such as what went on in DCC as a surge seperate from new case numbers arising from say the ongoing relaxation of restrictions. Do you reckon they're clairvoyant or something?

Its pretty simple - let me dumb it down for you.

If there is no surge in cases at all - how could there be a surge from the outdoor gatherings in DCC?

Cases have been fairly stagnant, a slight downward trend over the last week or so maybe. If this continues and there is no surge or unexpected rise, then you cant possibly say that the outdoor gatherings caused a surge.

VinLieger · 31-05-2021 03:12PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Except it has been going on in Dublin for weeks with little said about it....

The Gardai usually clear out William Street area & temple bar area around 9.30/10pm, last few weekends it's been drive 2 or 3 public order vans down the street, a blast of the sirens and people start leaving

The weekend just gone wasn't the first time

Indeed the sun may have encouraged more but theres been crowds around the country doing exactly this for weeks now.

charlie14 · 31-05-2021 03:14PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Community transmission is what contact tracers label a case when they dont know the source of transmission. They couldnt figure out what close contact gave it to them, so they'll just say it came from the community. Thats how it works.

"Community transmission" could mean you got it from someone asymptomatic. They never tested positive because they never needed a test, and by the time you name them as a close contact and they get a test on referral, they have already cleared the virus from their system.

In addition, contact tracers here only ask for close contacts in the last 48hrs from when you test positive - so you could get the virus from someone a week ago, and by the time you test positive they are no longer a "close contact".

It's very unlikely people are picking it up on a walk outdoors or something.

I know how community transmission is defined, and I would see it as being a lot more likely listed as being picked up where people are piled on top of each other rather than just walking outdoors.

gozunda · 31-05-2021 03:14PM

timmyntc wrote: »

???Theyve been happening for months. Every bit of decent weather has people lining the canals, or portobello, stephens green and more to meet up and drink cans.

And there has been no resulting surge.

As much as I know there is a element of trying to make the whole thing out as just some people "drinking cans" - what was going on in DCC certainly cannot be described as that imho

And whilst there are no detected 'surges' from other types of prior activities - we have had a constant background of relatively high case numbers and that despite the ongoing programme of vaccinations -

Captain_Crash · 31-05-2021 03:15PM

Maybe it’s been mentioned already, but does anyone actually believe TH drive down S William St on Saturday evening? Or is it just the cynic in me?

Id bet that he saw it on Twitter or facebox etc and let his outrage be known and framed it as if he was there! With that many people about there is no way he’d have made it down that street without being recognised!!

stephenjmcd · 31-05-2021 03:15PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Indeed the sun may have encouraged more but theres been crowds around the country doing exactly this for weeks now.

Yup, not just a Dublin thing

Can only speak for Dublin myself as it's what I've seen in the last few weeks but friends in Galway saying same thing over there.

Ballynally · 31-05-2021 03:16PM

charlie14 wrote: »

How many people who attended illegal outdoor gatherings would you reckon who did not need to be hospitalised due to having subsequently contracted the virus would have listed the possibility of an illegal gathering even if they had gone for a test ? Very few I would imagine.
The other thing that has mystified me for some time is if all transmissions are from indoor setting, why have so many confirmed cases been listed as community transmission, especially during lockdown.

I agree that the chances of becoming infected outdoors is much less than indoors, but that is in well ventilated situations without close contact where people coughing, sneezing or shouting in somebodies face can cause transmission. I would not look at those scenes on Saturday night as being that.
Same as I would not look on Trump`s White House Rose Garden event that became a super spreader from all the confirmed cases of those attending as being sheer coincidence.

Safe to say I imagine that the vast majority of those gathered on Saturday night have not received even a first dose vaccination. My assumption would be if they acted in a responsible manner until they do then there would be little or none chances of hospital transmissions going up.

Community transmissions happen indoors in cross age group settings, ie, families and household visiting.
Some would be combined with workplace infections brought home.

That White house gathering was a puzzling one.
I have no evidence but i assume they got it in the waiting area, like in the boarding area in airports w bad ventilation, not on a plane or on a lawn as suggested.

About the saturday night i agree. Still, people get overly scared and upset by it.
The irish people are all in all very compliant, anomalies aside.
Does anyone actually believe in a 4th wave like the one in January?
Fear runs deep and is easily ignited

mohawk · 31-05-2021 03:16PM

castletownman wrote: »

Sure we can't have public toilets in the city centre because junkies MAY use them to shoot up.

Sure we can't have many bins dotted around the place either because some terrorist MAY plant a bomb in it during a crowded time of the year.

It's a farce. Just because a minuscule amount of people may use drugs in a public toilet shouldn't mean that everyone else is denied what is a basic human right. It's the same way they treat the pubs reopening-just because some lads get a bit loud and obnoxious with alcohol in them, doesn't mean every single patron does. Can't have loud music at all at all.

I was at the beach during the week and the girlfriend needed to go toilet. Public toilet beside the beach was locked (those pesky junkies), and you can't pop into a hotel or wherever at the moment either to strain the spuds. The proportion of bins relative to foot-fall in many towns is low as well, which is particularly noticeable now that you have to take home any food or drink item you purchase.

Many councils seem to think it’s easier for them if businesses provide toilets and bins to the wider public. The reason for no bins seems to be because some people are too tight to have household bins and use public bins. Pre covid we didn’t notice as much because there was always somewhere to pop in and use a loo. Now everything is takeaway the bins provided by businesses get full up too quickly for them to manage.

When I go to the beach I don’t mind no bins as every bit of rubbish goes back into the picnic bag and brought home. At other times if I get food and the wrapper gets messy or sticky I definitely want a public bin to dispose of it as I have no where to put it.
The first couple weeks after they lifted the 5km my other half was desperate for a walk by the sea but I am pregnant and the public toilets in the beach were closed. Beach is 60km from home and I can’t survive a day trip with no loo. Luckily our county council gave into public pressure and we went to the beach yesterday and the toilets had toilet paper, warm water and even soap (very high standards for a public toilet). Without enough public toilets it means people with certain medical conditions can’t really go anywhere in case they are caught short.

gozunda · 31-05-2021 03:23PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Its pretty simple - let me dumb it down for you.If there is no surge in cases at all - how could there be a surge from the outdoor gatherings in DCC? Cases have been fairly stagnant, a slight downward trend over the last week or so maybe. If this continues and there is no surge or unexpected rise, then you cant possibly say that the outdoor gatherings caused a surge.

Well let me explain this fairly slowly then.

You're the one who brought up the notion of "surges"

And there you're trying to use a double negative to prove something that might happen or not as the case may be.

The point remains if a surge does happen - then most likley it would be indistinguishable from other causes without a dedicated track and trace of the people who were there and of others who are infected subsequently

But more importantly this along with other restrictions not being adhered to - will most likley be reflected in the ongoing number of infections which are being recorded and which are not declining pro rata with other metrics.

^^ The highlighted bit - thems your words not mine btw.

timmyntc · 31-05-2021 03:27PM

charlie14 wrote: »

I know how community transmission is defined, and I would see it as being a lot more likely listed as being picked up where people are piled on top of each other rather than just walking outdoors.

If that were the case, you would expect community transmission as a % of cases to go up in the summer with the good weather and more people gathering, right?

Well the data published by HPSC actually finds the opposite - % of cases labelled community transmission is dropping slowly towards the summer.
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/

timmyntc · 31-05-2021 03:30PM

gozunda wrote: »

Well let me explain this fairly slowly then.

You're the one who brought up the notion of "surges"

And there you're trying to use a double negative to prove something that might happen or not as the case may be.

The point remains if a surge does happen - then most likley it would be indistinguishable from other causes without a dedicated track and trace of the people who were there and of others who are infected subsequently

But more importantly this along with other restrictions not being adhered to - will most likley be reflected in the ongoing number of infections which are being recorded and which are not declining pro rata with other metrics.

If a surge happens, we cant know for sure what caused it without track & trace, but if a surge doesnt happen in the first place - then track & trace is irrelevant. The surge didnt materialise, ergo the outdoor gatherings caused no surge because there was none.

Stormyteacup · 31-05-2021 03:31PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Indeed the sun may have encouraged more but theres been crowds around the country doing exactly this for weeks now.

And other large gatherings, like St. Patrick’s weekend, Easter, bank holidays and basically any nice weekend day have not shown spikes - why do people believe this is the one that will cause a spike? Is it just blind faith in repeated warnings, or normal expected outrage at carry-on that’s frowned upon by pontificating prudes in general, but who are now armed with a Covid stick.

Maybe this weekend just gone being extra highlighted by that tweet may have finally have people noticing/questioning why no spike materialised (assuming one doesn’t).

Will it finally be put to rest, at least in respect of it being a public health danger - anyone can carry on being outraged at ‘scenes’ if they so choose.

Richard Hillman · 31-05-2021 03:36PM

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Maybe it’s been mentioned already, but does anyone actually believe TH drive down S William St on Saturday evening? Or is it just the cynic in me?

Id bet that he saw it on Twitter or facebox etc and let his outrage be known and framed it as if he was there! With that many people about there is no way he’d have made it down that street without being recognised!!

I have seen him drop somebody off at Clarenden Street before. I assume it was his daughter. The route and roads he took would suggest he went down that direction.

I posted after the tweet that he had been sitting on that tweet for a while. I know he drives that way, he has definitely seen it before but his tweet was a message to the garda and media to shut it down.

gozunda · 31-05-2021 03:37PM

timmyntc wrote: »

If a surge happens, we cant know for sure what caused it without track & trace, but if a surge doesnt happen in the first place - then track & trace is irrelevant. The surge didnt materialise, ergo the outdoor gatherings caused no surge because there was none.

Oh fs. Not even more double negatives?
You're the only one going on about "surges" btw.

As detailed any likley infections will be reflected in the ongoing number of new cases which are not declining in line with other metrics.

I'll leave you at it....

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings