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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • #2432
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,441 ✭✭✭pauldry


    100 people in hospital 39 in ICU

    Thats fairly low.

    Just open everything. Then set numbers of hospitalizations and ICUs and if it goes to that number close again.


  • #2433
    Klonker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,669 ✭✭✭Klonker


    gozunda wrote: »
    Your link is behind a firewall so I've no idea what it says or otherwise

    The main rollbacks going forward are on a monthly basis with some additional as detailed eg 10 & 17 May. eg See:

    https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/covid19/living_with_covid19_plan.html

    Side note: No fan of politicians in general- but I do feel sorry for this lot. They get slammed for not opening up fast enough - and when they do - they get lambasted for that as well. They really can't win ...

    Well you don't need the link, you know yourself that restriction easing in April was gradual week by week so to say our strategy is easing with large gaps in between is not true. Maybe they've changed strategies but flip flopping strategies is not clear management imo.

    Agree somewhat about the politicians. They are getting consecutive criticism for opening too slow and too fast. The too fast criticism is very strange considering we are easing the slowest in all of Europe even though we've the youngest population and low rates of covid.


  • #2434
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    iamwhoiam wrote: »
    Can anyone help me with a question . I have tried googling but get bogged down
    So they are saying that after one dose of AZ the efficacy against Indian variant if 33%
    Is that in week one post vaccine and does the efficacy rise over time ? So say week 5/6 post vaccine has it risen beyond 33% ?
    Also is that number simply for risk of infection or has it a higher protection for severe illness
    Thank you in advance for any help

    It covers symptomatic infection. The study includes cases 3 weeks after the first dose. It only covers a 4 week observation period so would not have taken into account a potential in efficacy over time.

    The PHE report yesterday showed the number of hospitalizations in those who had their first dose >3 weeks prior was 1/3 compared to the number of unvaccinated. That covers both vaccines but even assuming they were all AZ it suggests protection against severe infection is much higher.


  • #2435
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    pauldry wrote: »
    100 people in hospital 39 in ICU

    Thats fairly low.

    Just open everything. Then set numbers of hospitalizations and ICUs and if it goes to that number close again.
    We are supposedly about 4 weeks from up to 80% being offered a vaccine plus there are a number of areas reopening over the next week or so. We can wait!


  • #2436
    brickster69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    There has been 100,000s of variants since covid began.

    The Indian variant doubles in 7 days. In 3 weeks it will be 56,000 cases / week. 97% of current hospitalizations are people who have not had 2 doses. Why Spain has let in UK people without a test or being vaccinated is crazy. It will all kick off again.It is not fear mongering it is inevitable.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



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  • #2437
    ednwireland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,719 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    yorkshire variant - gods own variant

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/cases-yorkshire-coronavirus-variant-double-24192116

    My weather

    https://www.ecowitt.net/home/share?authorize=96CT1F



  • #2438
    Atlantic Dawn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,177 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    GDY151


    brickster69 wrote: »
    The Indian variant doubles in 7 days. In 3 weeks it will be 56,000 cases / week. 97% of current hospitalizations are people who have not had 2 doses. Why Spain has let in UK people without a test or being vaccinated is crazy. It will all kick off again.It is not fear mongering it is inevitable.

    People will not be dying or overloading hospitals because the vulnerable have been vaccinated, no reason not to open up.


  • #2439
    Atlantic Dawn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,177 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    GDY151


    ednwireland wrote: »
    yorkshire variant - gods own variant

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/cases-yorkshire-coronavirus-variant-double-24192116

    We must have Limerick or Donegal versions by now.


  • #2440
    ArthurDayne
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,931 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    gozunda wrote: »
    As I said incorrect. There was no comparison actual or implied of anything but the mention of the interval model as detailed.



    As for "cautious". Whether anyone agrees with a more cautious approach or otherwise - it remains Ireland has achieved one of the lowest case and death rates per capita of any of our near European neighbours and the UK. Though I reckon no one would claim that any ocountry has not faced massive social and economic damage as a result of the Pandemic. As to a final measure of that - that's a whole other can of worms.

    Caveat

    I'll leave you there.

    Well.... we do have some fairly significant geographic and demographic advantages for pandemic management over our very densely populated neighbours to the East and the European continental shelf of several hundred million people.

    In any case — the more severe elements of lockdown were never sold as being justified on the basis of a cautious attempt to simply have better numbers than other countries, but I am sure the constant revisionism of lockdown justifications will suggest otherwise from time to time depending on which justification is handy on a given day.


  • #2441
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    Klonker wrote: »
    Well you don't need the link, you know yourself that restriction easing in April was gradual week by week is to say out strategy is easing with large gaps in between is not true. Maybe they've changed strategies but flip flopping strategies is not clear management imo.

    Agree somewhat about the politicians. They are getting consecutive criticism for opening too slow and too fast. The too fast criticism is very strange considering we are easing the slowest in all of Europe even though we've the youngest population and low rates of covid.

    Well your link was to prove your point and as I can't view it - so it doesn't ;) But we'll leave that as it is.

    As detailed the major rollbacks are on a monthly basis - see the link provided. But yeah things will change and as vaccination rates rise will likley speed up to some degree or at least I hope they will.

    Not sure the youngest population thing is as relevant as often indicated though. It remains that approx 14% of the population here are over 65 - equal to some 637,567 individuals. Pre vaccination thats a very large cohort of people who were at risk from serious illness and death and was the cohort in which the largest number of deaths were recorded

    Even with that - up to recently approx 50% of all those in hospital with covid were under 65 and 50% over 65. Post vaccination the numbers of older individuals infected and admitted hospital has dropped significantly and the highest rate of infection is now amongst younger cohorts.

    But yes its true we now have low rates of infection - this has been achieved through a combination of restrictions and vaccinations. And both those balls are still being played for the moment.


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  • #2442
    brickster69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,271 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Atlantic Dawn wrote: »
    People will not be dying or overloading hospitals because the vulnerable have been vaccinated, no reason not to open up.

    I think it may be a good reason to halt international travel though. For the sake of other countries

    https://twitter.com/gdog2010_john/status/1397963255851671555

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • #2443
    Klonker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,669 ✭✭✭Klonker


    gozunda wrote: »
    Well your link was to prove your point and as I can't view it - so it doesn't ;) But we'll leave that as it is.

    As detailed the major rollbacks are on a monthly basis - see the link provided. But yeah things will change and as vaccination rates rise will likley speed up to some degree or at least I hope they will.

    Not sure the youngest population thing is as relevant as often indicated though. It remains that approx 14% of the population here are over 65 - equal to some 637,567 individuals. Pre vaccination thats a very large cohort of people who were at risk from serious illness and death and was the cohort in which the largest number of deaths were recorded

    Even with that - up to recently approx 50% of all those in hospital with covid were under 65 and 50% over 65. Post vaccination the numbers of older individuals infected and admitted hospital has dropped significantly and the highest rate of infection is now amongst younger cohorts.

    But yes its true we now have low rates of infection - this has been achieved through a combination of restrictions and vaccinations. And both those balls are still being played for the moment.

    Nope it still proves my point, restrictions eased week in April and you know that already so you trying to say our strategy is month to months easing is untrue ;)

    With an average age of death of 80+ the aging of a population is very much relevant. In fact it is the number one indicator of how likely you are to have serious outcome of covid. Experts the world over have stated this by now numerous times. A lot of these older people never ended up in hospital unfortunately as it wouldn't have helped.


  • #2444
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    JDD wrote: »
    That's a question I have. I've heard that covid mutates very slightly all the time, that's why we can trace back a particular outbreak to a similar outbreak in Spain, or whatever.

    What makes the Kent, Indian, SA variants different from your common or garden everyday variants? If it turned out that the Indian variant was no more contagious, did not cause more serious illness, and was not resistant to vaccines, surely it's just like the millions of other variants we've had over the past year? Is it something to do with outer shell variations vs inner part of virus variations?

    It all depends on where the mutation is, the virus is made up of sequenced chains of amino acids which form proteins. When there is an addition or a deletion most of the time this makes very little difference and doesn't change the virus in any consequential way.

    As the virus infects using the spike protein to bind to cells any changes to this can be more worrying, for a number of reasons.

    They can make the virus more infectious if the change to the spike protein makes it easier to bind. It might make it more difficult for vaccine antibodies to neutralise the virus. As you might get more virus binding easier, it may also increase severity of disease.

    These are all maybes and we have definitely already seen strains which have made it more infectious. Nothing conclusive on severity of disease. Of the strains that may evade vaccine induced antibodies the South Africa one looks the most worrying.

    That all said, vaccines should still reduce the risk of severe disease massively against all known strains, memory cells will still kill infected cells, antibodies will still have some effect on preventing the virus binding, the key is to keep things steady until we have enough vaccinations done.


  • #2445
    FishOnABike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Its been proven to be more transmissible, the same jump with the older variant would have not been possible as seen in the first wave.

    Outdoor sports events should be 100% attendance once the Ro is below 1 and vaccination is dose 50% one dose or so.

    That would be following the science.

    That's quite specific. Do you have the modelling details behind it which would predict what the preconditions (e.g. R value in the particular context, cohort mix, percentages vaccinated in each cohort, whether 1st or 2nd dose received, etc...) would need to be to ensure the R value, in that context, remains low enough. Or is it as as the "or so" might suggest, an opinion rather than science?


  • #2446
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    ArthurDayne wrote: »
    Well.... we do have some fairly significant geographic and demographic advantages for pandemic management over our very densely populated neighbours to the East and the European continental shelf of several hundred million people.

    In any case — the more severe elements of lockdown were never sold as being justified on the basis of a cautious attempt to simply have better numbers than other countries, but I am sure the constant revisionism of lockdown justifications will suggest otherwise from time to time depending on which justification is handy on a given day.

    Well didn't say they had. It remains the restrictions we had were there to keep the infection rate low and we seem to have achieved that. And whilst we cant accurately compare countries due to the wide range of significant differences - one measure commonly used - the per capita death and case rates compare very well to other neighbouring countries. Take that how you will.

    That we've managed all that despite being up **** creek less than 6 months ago is also good. Hopefully we're out of this in a couple of months.


  • #2447
    irishguy1983
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,389 ✭✭✭irishguy1983


    brickster69 wrote: »
    I think it may be a good reason to halt international travel though. For the sake of other countries

    https://twitter.com/gdog2010_john/status/1397963255851671555

    When places are that crowded does a mask much of a difference??


  • #2448
    Stormyteacup
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 999 ✭✭✭Stormyteacup


    gozunda wrote: »
    As I said incorrect. There was no comparison actual or implied of anything but the mention of the interval model as detailed.

    Afaik the idea is to provide a lag time to gsuge what effects reduced social distancing, travel etc have on the rate of infection before moving to the next phase. It's the same model the UK are using for the easing of restrictions there.

    The above in bold was what I disputed. Reads very much like a comparison to UK, perhaps I misinterpreted. Either way, pointing out a similar time lag for far fewer easing of restrictions is a bit pointless.

    As you say, leave it there.


  • #2449
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    brickster69 wrote: »
    I think it may be a good reason to halt international travel though. For the sake of other countries

    https://twitter.com/gdog2010_john/status/1397963255851671555

    I would prefer to go sit in the bog with a flask of tea and some hang sandwiches for two weeks than go through that ^^


  • #2450
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    brickster69 wrote: »
    The Indian variant doubles in 7 days. In 3 weeks it will be 56,000 cases / week. 97% of current hospitalizations are people who have not had 2 doses. Why Spain has let in UK people without a test or being vaccinated is crazy. It will all kick off again.It is not fear mongering it is inevitable.

    The indian variant is already past peak in some areas of the UK. Particular areas in particular regions had low vaccination rates. It also coincided with relaxation of restrictions


  • #2451
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,398 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    The indian variant is already past peak in some areas of the UK. Particular areas in particular regions had low vaccination rates. It also coincided with relaxation of restrictions

    Sequencing for variants takes time and causes a lag, so I'm assuming cases (regardless of variant) in those various regions have peaked already? Tables I seen was just based on the variant and not cases per se.
    I guess if a week ago 75% in a certain region was the Indian variant, they can just extrapolate that to daily cases?


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  • #2452
    funnydoggy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    If a Cork variant were ever to appear, locals would use it as an argument for independence. :pac:

    We're well overdue independence tbh :pac:


  • #2453
    kleiner feigling
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 154 ✭✭kleiner feigling


    Atlantic Dawn wrote: »
    People will not be dying or overloading hospitals because the vulnerable have been vaccinated, no reason not to open up.

    AND.... it's summer. Seasonality plays a significant role in this.


  • #2454
    pawdee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 558 ✭✭✭pawdee


    brickster69 wrote: »
    New variant in the UK. It's like a takeaway Chinese, Indian & Thai. Will be a Kentucky variant next.

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1397974324431278082

    Athy variant? Feck!


  • #2455
    prunudo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,093 ✭✭✭prunudo


    So maybe I'm being over simplistic so bear with me. If the chains of infection for one variant get broken up and surpressed surely its inevitable that the next variant will become more common place. It doesn't necessarily mean its worse or more infectious than the last, just that its now the one that is currently spreading in the community.


  • #2456
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I don't know how anyone can claim that any variant is more transmissible without a huge amount of guesswork involved as there are simply too many variables at play.

    Levels of restrictions / people's adherence
    Levels of testing
    Seasonality
    Vaccines
    Geographical


  • #2457
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,554 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I don't know how anyone can claim that any variant is more transmissible without a huge amount of guesswork involved as there are simply too many variables at play.

    Levels of restrictions / people's adherence
    Levels of testing
    Seasonality
    Vaccines
    Geographical

    They can infer the additional transmissibility by the relative growth rate versus other variants. All the things you listed are common and affect the transmission of both variants. So if all those things are the same, and 1 variant is infecting much more people in an area, then it's likely because it's more transmissible.


  • #2458
    cheezums
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 713 ✭✭✭cheezums


    prunudo wrote: »
    So maybe I'm being over simplistic so bear with me. If the chains of infection for one variant get broken up and surpressed surely its inevitable that the next variant will become more common place. It doesn't necessarily mean its worse or more infectious than the last, just that its now the one that is currently spreading in the community.

    Bingo.


  • #2459
    ElTel
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,672 ✭✭✭ElTel


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I don't know how anyone can claim that any variant is more transmissible without a huge amount of guesswork involved as there are simply too many variables at play.

    Levels of restrictions / people's adherence
    Levels of testing
    Seasonality
    Vaccines
    Geographical

    Attack rate of close contacts would be the main indicator I think.


  • #2460
    Atlantic Dawn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,177 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    GDY151


    All international travel opening up on July 19th according to RTE, game, set and match. The Ryanair website will buckle under the strain.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0528/1224365-covid-19/


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  • #2461
    GeorgeBailey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭GeorgeBailey


    Atlantic Dawn wrote: »
    We must have Limerick or Donegal versions by now.

    It's when we get the New Zealand variant that we'll know we're well and truly fuct


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