Guineas Weekend

It would be great to see another big winner for Kevin Prendergast and he has a chance in both the 1000 and 2000. Don't think anyone would begrudge him winning

Edit just saw his one in the 1000 wasn't declared.

FWIW

IRISH GUINEAS BETTING TRENDS AND STATS
17/19 – Had run within the last 3 weeks
15/19 – Had won over either 7f or 1m before
15/19 – Favourites that finished in the top two
15/19 – Had won between 1-4 times before
14/19 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
14/19 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/19 – Irish bred
13/19 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
12/19 – Had run at the Curragh before
11/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
10/19 – Had won a Group 1 race before
9/19 – Winning favourites
8/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (11 wins in total)
8/19 – Unplaced last time out
8/19 – Trained by a UK-based stable
8/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Won the 2,000 Guineas (Newmarket) that season
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 11/2
Rock of Gibraltar (2002), Cockney Rebel (2007), Henrythenavigator (2008), Gleneagles (2015) & Churchill (2017) all did the English/Irish 2,000 Guineas double



TQ VERDICT: A more open renewal of the Irish 2000 Guineas this season, in a race the powerful Aidan O’Brien camp will be going for their twelfth win! However, the Ballydoyle outfit are now three years without success in the race, with the last coming in 2017 with Churchill. Like most years, they are mob-handed again with three runners – Wembley, Van Gogh and Battleground – and the trio all look to have a chance. They also all ran in the English 2000 Guineas last time out and it was Van Gogh who came out best in 8th, with Wembley in 11th and Battleground in 13th. You feel that all three are much better than those showings and the much quicker ground that day was probably a big reason why they all underperformed. Back on ground with more give we can expect improved runs from the three, but the fact jockey Ryan Moore sticks with WEMBLEY could be significant. This 3 year-old wasn’t given a hard time once his chance was lost on the quick ground at Newmarket last time, but prior to that had run in the top three in all six starts, including a close second in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes last season. The softer ground here is a huge plus and even though his breeding suggests he’ll want further in time that stamina in his pedigree will be an asset in testing conditions – he’s taken to ‘hit the back of the net’ for trainer Aidan O’Brien. We also get a chance to see the winner of the English 2000 Guineas again – Poetic Flare – but he ran only last week too in the French Guineas and was only 6th. Therefore, he’s got a bit to prove for me and this race coming just six days later might not be ideal for this young horse. Course winner – Lucky Vega – is another big player having been a close third in the English 2000 Guineas last time but I just feel the heavy ground will test his stamina to the max and breeding suggests this 1m trip is probably around his max – we’ll see. The English challenge is thin on the ground, but is headed by the Charlie Appleby-trained La Barrosa, who was last seen running a close second in the Craven Stakes at HQ. But his only try on heavy ground saw him get tired quickly, so conditions would certainly be a worry for him too. The Hugo Palmer runner – The Rosstafarian is the only other UK-trained runner. The forgotten horse could be the other Jim Bolger runner – MAC SWINEY (e/w) – who probably need the run last time out in the G1 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown. Back in trip will suit and he’s a winner on heavy ground, when landing the G1 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster last season. Add in that he’s also a prove course winner here at the Curragh, then he could be the each-way value in the race.



and


TQ VIEW 'Best Bet': 6.55 Lingfield: EVE LODGE - Should be a straight- forward task for Charlie's horse here. Caught the eye on debut at Ascot (3rd) and this looks easier. With that experience under her belt can take this before heading to the Royal Meeting at Ascot next month.


TQ VIEW 'Each-Way': 5.55 Lingfield: RAFIOT (e/w) - The Gary Moore horses have been in good order this week. This 5 year-old has lost his way a bit in recent runs after dotting up at Southwell in January. But both runs were over longer trips so the drop back to 1m4f today is a plus and he's also a CD winner here on the AW at Lingfield. Could go well at a nice e/w price.


Scott Dixon
Ebury
Sat 22nd May 2021
14:05, York
DEC Odds: 23 (Betfair Exc)
Well beaten behind Tomfre when last seen at Doncaster back in November so a fair bit to prove. Returns on a 2lb lower mark, but also a 6 month break so might just need the run here today.

Charlie Fellowes
London Arch
Sat 22nd May 2021
15:15, York
DEC Odds: 22 (Betfair Exc)
Has taken his time to come in his coat but is finally getting there. Soft Ground should be fine and I am hoping he can continue on from where he finished last year.

Harmonious
Sat 22nd May 2021
15:15, York
Glimmers of form with 4 seconds from his 9 runs, but very disappointing here at York last time out. Only 3lbs lower here and is certainly better than that running so we are putting the cheekpieces on today to see if they help. Hard to fancy until we see more on the track.

Zargun
Sat 22nd May 2021
15:50, York
DEC Odds: 15 (Betfair Exc)
Ran a blinder last time out here, when a close third in a similar race. Up just a pound for that but has come out of the race well and after just getting bumped and collared late on the result might have been a bit better. The drop back to 5f is fine as shows plenty of pace and has good Group form in Germany on softer ground. Competitive, but each-way chance and looking forward to seeing him in action again. Looks one of our better chances on the day.

Simon Dow
Petesorse
Sat 22nd May 2021
17:20, Lingfield
Half brother to a prolific sprint winner but this one looks as if he needs much further. Step up in trip will help but needs to show a bit more before we can predict the outcome.

Catesby
Sat 22nd May 2021
17:25, York
Slowly away last time and has been getting a bit outpaced over 6f so stepping up to 7f here should help. Into a harder grade of race here from last time though so a bit to find despite being 2lbs lower. Ross Birkett rides in this gentleman's race so that will help. But overall hard to get too excited about until we see more on the track.

Ed Dunlop
Global Art
Sat 22nd May 2021
17:55, Lingfield
He has been in good form at home and ran a good race last start at Chelmsford when drawn badly. This looks a nice option for him and we decided to step him up in trip to try and seek further improvement. The horse to beat in the Jamie Osborne trained runner. Global Art will be ridden by Mark Crehan who claims 5lb. He has each-way claims.

Gary Moore
Rafiot
Sat 22nd May 2021
17:55, Lingfield
DEC Odds: 19.5 (Betfair Exc)
Looks competitive but Rafiot has been working to a decent standard at home recently and hopeful of a better run. Easy winner at Southwell back in January, but has struggled to build on that off his higher mark - was hiked up 8lbs for that win. Down 2lbs here and back on the AW helps after running down the field on the turf last time. Rhys knows the horse well and can claim 5lbs so with more in his favour here today - most notably back to 1m4f - then no shock to see a decent e/w run here at a fair price.

Jamie Snowden
Some Day Soon
Sat 22nd May 2021
18:40, Stratford upon Avon
DEC Odds: 8 (Betfair Exc)
Some Day Soon ran very well on his comeback run to be 3rd over 2m4 three weeks ago. He's on a stiff enough mark to win a handicap hurdle at this time of year, but the top horse keeps the weights down nicely here, and he'd have a chance here providing the ground doesn't ride too soft. He's in good form, and should run his race.

Eve Lodge
Sat 22nd May 2021
18:55, Lingfield
DEC Odds: 1.92 (Betfair Exc)
Is very nice and we were delighted with her debut at Ascot. Hopefully she can win at Lingfield tonight and book a place at Royal Ascot

Moosmee
Sat 22nd May 2021
19:25, Lingfield
DEC Odds: 42 (Betfair Exc)
Never shown any form for us on the track but has had a break and goes well at home. Previous best form was on soft ground and likely to stay 7f but hard to recommend until he looks as if he is on the way back.

maximo31 wrote: »

Have MacSwiney in the Guineas during the week , 9/1 4 places.
Colfer Kay in the last is another who should like the going. 15/2 EW.
Pretty Boy Floyd for small EW in the 5.00. Course winner on ground that suits. 25/1.

Macswiney as well for me in the big one.

Rory Clearly you little dazzler, class ride.

Not bad for an Epsom prep race and McSwiney won in a good time too ( Slow by 4.42 ). Given the reasonable time most of the flops can't be blamed on bad ground.

leffesem wrote: »

If Broome runs to form, he should win this easy. Red hot lately, including 2 C & D wins. Evens aint exactly generous though.

Well Helvic Dreams turned the tables, an improving 4yo and loved the ground. Sunchart taking on Broome early possibly cost him the race, he had to cede the rail to Sunchart and move out to get comfortable. He lost his chance to control the race.

Heard a whisper for a horse in the states. In the next, the 6.31 @ Belmont, the fav - Bella Principessa is around 6/4 and is expected to win. I'm currently backing the horse.