Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

Bass Reeves · 20-05-2021 01:39PM

handlemaster wrote: »

Government was bailed out. the same logic can go for buyers there was lots of time to pick up property at lower prices to today.

I think this is a fact regarding a lot of people in there 30's is how they left the opportunity to buy from 2011-2017/18 slip by them. A lot of them went off and paid as much for a car as a apartment back then. Even in areas of rural Ireland up until last year's there was value in places. There are people renting in places now that they turned there noses up to 3-10 years ago.

The Government were broke and were unable to access borrowings. They were limited by both the EU and the IMF in how they raised it and how they spend it. Maybe they would have had 4-500 million more to play around if the same people who are now on about property prices were willing to pay water taxes.

awec · 20-05-2021 01:45PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I think this is a fact regarding a lot of people in there 30's is how they left the opportunity to buy from 2011-2017/18 slip by them. A lot of them went off and paid as much for a car as a apartment back then. Even in areas of rural Ireland up until last year's there was value in places. There are people renting in places now that they turned there noses up to 3-10 years ago.

The Government were broke and were unable to access borrowings. They were limited by both the EU and the IMF in how they raised it and how they spend it. Maybe they would have had 4-500 million more to play around if the same people who are now on about property prices were willing to pay water taxes.

I think that's a bit out of touch.

Not many people in their 30s today would have been in a position to buy in the early 10s.

timmyntc · 20-05-2021 01:48PM

awec wrote: »

I think that's a bit out of touch.

Not many people in their 30s today would have been in a position to buy in the early 10s.

Most people in their 20s around 2010 would be lucky to have a job

Eclectic Econometrics · 20-05-2021 01:48PM

awec wrote: »

The biggest thing going against that house is the location. It's the wrong side of the N11, there is nothing over there.

I have something for you, Awec!

When I first looked at this house I didn't like the kitchen but I came across an interior designer who lives in the estate, in one of 3 or 4 or the same type house, who redesigned her kitchen.

If you Google "My home is a guinea pig for my business ideas" (it's a Times link) that kitchen is in the exact same type house, but is several levels nicer IMHO.

L1011 · 20-05-2021 01:48PM

Gradius was thread-banned from this thread and appears to have forgotten that - or I'm going soft in my old age and not infracting for a breach. But the ban stands.

Gradius - do not post in this thread again. Do not reply to this post.

Cyrus · 20-05-2021 01:51PM

Eclectic Econometrics wrote: »

I have read a lot about price increases at the bottom (200-300k) and middle (450-600k) of the market due to bidding wars but from what I have seen at the upper (1m+) and top end (8 fig net worth individuals type houses) my anecdotal impression, from looking at listed prices and final sales prices, is that there is downward negotiation taking place. Not much, but when you knock 5-7% off 1.5 it is still a decent chunk of change.

This house however... I still can't post links, Google "5 Rocky Valley Crescent, Kilmacanogue, Co. Wicklow"..... was first listed for €900,000 and, 2 months later, is now being touted for 1.2. Is anyone buying, or just watching prices, around the €1m mark and have you also seen increases?

With regards to the house itself, I personally think you are better off paying a couple of hundred grand more and living in a more private house in Rathmichael and not have your neighbour directly opposite. I think where there is a discrepancy in house prices in Ireland, as compared to London, is what you get for your money in terms of convenience. Someone touched on something similar (geographical discrepancy) earlier but talked about England/UK as a whole. One day I will formulate exactly what I am talking about, with proper examples, when I have more time.

you are assuming someone spending 1.2m could goto 1.5m easily, its not normally the case to be honest.

regardless that place looks like awful value, i wouldnt pay 1.2m to live in kilmacanogue under any circumstances but certainly for that house.

what i have seen in the market for 1m+ houses, if they are walk in in a desirable location they are selling quickly and generally over asking, if they arent they are hanging around.

the 3m+ properties are generally still a slow sell barring something exceptional (for example cnoc aluinn on coliemore road sold quickly at 3.5m)

cnocbui · 20-05-2021 01:52PM

L1011 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1395342746123124737

One of the three parties of Government does not appear to be aware that the requirement for every apartment to have a parking space was removed some years ago in areas with acceptable public transport. The one with the transport portfolio, at that!

Such is the quality of the people running and administering the running of the country.

awec · 20-05-2021 01:53PM

Eclectic Econometrics wrote: »

I have something for you, Awec!

When I first looked at this house I didn't like the kitchen but I came across an interior designer who lives in the estate, in one of 3 or 4 or the same type house, who redesigned her kitchen.

If you Google "My home is a guinea pig for my business ideas" (it's a Times link) that kitchen is in the exact same type house, but is several levels nicer IMHO.

I can't read the Times article as it's behind a paywall. The one you linked the kitchen is fairly meh, I would expect better in a house that size.

For some bizarre reason it has a sink on the island and a sink on the counter by the window, waste of space. I'm guessing the island was added later. I think cooking in that kitchen would be fairly awkward due to the layout of the hob relative to counter space.

It has a wine fridge though!

timmyntc · 20-05-2021 01:53PM

L1011 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1395342746123124737

One of the three parties of Government does not appear to be aware that the requirement for every apartment to have a parking space was removed some years ago in areas with acceptable public transport. The one with the transport portfolio, at that!

Can they build apartments with zero car parking spots? (or close to zero)

Its definitely not or everyone but plenty of people would be happy to forgo the parking space or the car entirely

Villa05 · 20-05-2021 01:55PM

MacronvFrugals wrote:

On Brendan O' Connors's show last August Skehan proclaimed "Dublin will be a city for the wealthy in the future"

I'm sure they'll be happy to rent at 2.5k per month in a social housing block

Mad_maxx wrote:

since Martin became leader , they have shifted sharply to the left and are doing worse than ever

As they continue to lead the housing market with demand led policies, I think your wrong

Lmkrnr wrote:

What was the housing situation like 10 year's ago. Houses were going for small change during the crash, if the government at the time could of foreseen the housing shortage it could of got access to all the stock NAMA snapped up. Hindsight I know.

Housing and rental shortage was flagged as early as 2013 by many including Ronan Lyons one of the most respected voices on housing

Cyrus wrote:

no we aren't.
There are some social units that are at that but the overall average will be way below this.

I'm not talking about the average, I'm referring to the direction. Social was always a significant discount to the market and very seldom in premium areas. Who signed off on this policy

awec wrote:

Leo Varadkar : "the government needs to do far more to improve housing supply".

PropQueries: "Leo Varadkar says there's no housing problem".

What any politician says and what they do can be very different and very often the complete opposite. Leo was the government leader when Connor Skehan was appointed Head advisor on housing policy. Connor believes there is no housing crisis and housing units are investment products

I don't believe you are naive to to be unaware of that

DataDude · 20-05-2021 01:58PM

Eclectic Econometrics wrote: »

I have read a lot about price increases at the bottom (200-300k) and middle (450-600k) of the market due to bidding wars but from what I have seen at the upper (1m+) and top end (8 fig net worth individuals type houses) my anecdotal impression, from looking at listed prices and final sales prices, is that there is downward negotiation taking place. Not much, but when you knock 5-7% off 1.5 it is still a decent chunk of change.

This house however... I still can't post links, Google "5 Rocky Valley Crescent, Kilmacanogue, Co. Wicklow"..... was first listed for €900,000 and, 2 months later, is now being touted for 1.2. Is anyone buying, or just watching prices, around the €1m mark and have you also seen increases?

With regards to the house itself, I personally think you are better off paying a couple of hundred grand more and living in a more private house in Rathmichael and not have your neighbour directly opposite. I think where there is a discrepancy in house prices in Ireland, as compared to London, is what you get for your money in terms of convenience. Someone touched on something similar (geographical discrepancy) earlier but talked about England/UK as a whole. One day I will formulate exactly what I am talking about, with proper examples, when I have more time.

Not 8 figure net worth individuals...but we've been looking in the €1.0 - €1.3m range for last 18 months. 2019 and 2020 it was fairly standard that you'd knock 10% of any asking price in your head as a given- nothing was making asking. 2021 there's still a number being negotiated down but not to the same extent. A lot go above also (but usually ones that were underpriced to begin with). Definitely a stronger market than 2019-2020, but not the same mania that you hear about in lower prices.

We half considered that one in Rocky Valley for a bit when it was at €900 (up for ages). The increase to €1.2m is absolutely bizarre and will only make anywhere near that if they find two absolute fools to bid against each other. The far bigger house next door, with a south facing garden (vs north) went for €995k early last year. It's worth at least €150k more than number 5, so if someone is paying €1.2m for 5 they're basically putting annual inflation at about 30-40%.
https://photos-a.propertyimages.ie/media/9/0/7/4327709/40fa8731-c926-4188-b1d6-eaefd0fd67bc.pdf

Mad to think they were going for €1.5m - €1.8m back in the day.
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/receiver-cuts-price-of-wicklow-homes-by-over-half-1.739893

awec · 20-05-2021 02:03PM

DataDude wrote: »

Not 8 figure net worth individuals...but we've been looking in the €1.0 - €1.3m range for last 18 months. 2019 and 2020 it was fairly standard that you'd knock 10% of any asking price in your head as a given- nothing was making asking. 2021 there's still a number being negotiated down but not to the same extent. A lot go above also (but usually ones that were underpriced to begin with). Definitely a stronger market than 2019-2020, but not the same mania that you hear about in lower prices.

We half considered that one in Rocky Valley for a bit when it was at €900 (up for ages). The increase to €1.2m is absolutely bizarre and will only make anywhere near that if they find two absolute fools to bid against each other. The far bigger house next door, with a south facing garden (vs north) went for €995k early last year. It's worth at least €150k more than number 5, so if someone is paying €1.2m for 5 they're basically putting annual inflation at about 30-40%.
https://photos-a.propertyimages.ie/media/9/0/7/4327709/40fa8731-c926-4188-b1d6-eaefd0fd67bc.pdf

Mad to think they were going for €1.5m - €1.8m back in the day.
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/receiver-cuts-price-of-wicklow-homes-by-over-half-1.739893

That #6 is way better.

Kitchen layout is good.

Cyrus · 20-05-2021 02:05PM

awec wrote: »

That #6 is way better.

Kitchen layout is good.

thats the one the other poster linked that the interior designer owned, it shows to be fair.

cnocbui · 20-05-2021 02:09PM

Marius34 wrote: »

I don't think that's precise. The only apartment building, completed in 2019, I'm aware of is Capital Dock. I think landlord Kennedy Wilson was part of the development, before completion.
Where there any other big apartment blocks completion in 2019?

190 units is not 95% of 3,644, in fact, I'd say it's probably not even close.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/just-8-000-houses-built-last-year-offered-for-sale-on-open-market-says-cif-1.4177876

L1011 · 20-05-2021 02:10PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Can they build apartments with zero car parking spots? (or close to zero)

Its definitely not or everyone but plenty of people would be happy to forgo the parking space or the car entirely

Yes, in urban locations zero space is totally normal and in slightly further out locations, if there's decent public transit, zero can be allowed. One space per 4 apartments seems to be what is expected in those cases (which is a lot less than the 1.25 spaces per apartment of old)

https://www.opr.ie/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/2018-Design-Standards-for-New-Apartments-1.pdf

Some SDZs are stuck with antiquated requirements on parking (and height) until they expire though.

>80% of households in some areas of or near Dublin city centre didn't have a car at the last census. Near where I work, many apartment owners have leased spaces out to businesses and in some cases, the original spaces were not all bought at all; and entire blocks were leased out - my employer has 20 in the basement of a nearby apartment leased off the management company.

Bass Reeves · 20-05-2021 02:15PM

awec wrote: »

I think that's a bit out of touch.

Not many people in their 30s today would have been in a position to buy in the early 10s.

They would have been if they were willing to buy 30-80k apartments. A lot were basically the price of a car over 20 years as opposed to
3-4 years. Neighbour had a daughter just out of college in Dublin in 2014 I think. He was up visiting one day where she was renting. He saw a house for sale accross the road and asked how much was the asking. 150k he told her he would give here the deposit. She would not entertain it as she was going travelling. That never happened the house accross the road was making 250 k 12 months later.

Eclectic Econometrics · 20-05-2021 02:20PM

Cyrus wrote: »

you are assuming someone spending 1.2m could goto 1.5m easily, its not normally the case to be honest.

regardless that place looks like awful value, i wouldnt pay 1.2m to live in kilmacanogue under any circumstances but certainly for that house.

what i have seen in the market for 1m+ houses, if they are walk in in a desirable location they are selling quickly and generally over asking, if they arent they are hanging around.

the 3m+ properties are generally still a slow sell barring something exceptional (for example cnoc aluinn on coliemore road sold quickly at 3.5m)

I agree that an additional 300k could well be a stretch for some and an impossibility for a great deal more.

Go to Youtube and search for "Westwicke, Quarry Road, Rathmichael, Dublin 18" the house in the video sold for €1.5 this year. To me, and I realise that property taste is a personal thing, what you get for the additional €300k is ridiculous.

Marius34 · 20-05-2021 02:20PM

cnocbui wrote: »

190 units is not 95% of 3,644, in fact, I'd say it's probably not even close.

I'm not the one, who said it's 95%. Opposite, 95% of bought apartments without funding is very likely false information.

cnocbui · 20-05-2021 02:24PM

Marius34 wrote: »

I'm not the one, who said it's 95%. Opposite, 95% of bought apartments without funding is very likely false information.

False information from the Construction Industry Federation - so poorly regarded that newspapers are quoting them, along with ministers in the Dail? You are flogging a dead horse.

DataDude · 20-05-2021 02:25PM

Eclectic Econometrics wrote: »

I agree that an additional 300k could well be a stretch for some and an impossibility for a great deal more.

Go to Youtube and search for "Westwicke, Quarry Road, Rathmichael, Dublin 18" the house in the video sold for €1.5 this year. To me, and I realise that property taste is a personal thing, what you get for the additional €300k is ridiculous.

That's a fabulous house. There's definitely a massive jump in quality if you can stretch to €1.5m+, I guess you're really into small numbers of people able to compete at that threshold.

I've always noticed that Rathmichael gives incredible bang for your buck. Absolutely 0 desire to live there though. Basically Kilmac with a Dublin address and more expensive houses. Wrong side of N11, nothing there, awkward to get anywhere from...anyone disagree and think it's worth considering?

Edit - just realised you could replace Rathmichael with Foxrock above and it would still hold true...and that seems to remain fairly popular!

Cyrus · 20-05-2021 02:27PM

DataDude wrote: »

That's a fabulous house. There's definitely a massive jump in quality if you can stretch to €1.5m+, I guess you're really into small numbers of people able to compete at that threshold.

I've always noticed that Rathmichael gives incredible bang for your buck. Absolutely 0 desire to live there though. Basically Kilmac with a Dublin address and more expensive houses. Wrong side of N11, nothing there, awkward to get anywhere from...anyone disagree and think it's worth considering?

anyone i know that lives there seem to spend a lot of time in killiney / dalkey. Also i agree thats a proper house. Although im sure someone with 1.5m would say if only i had 2m id get exactly what it want

that said its not that far from lots of nice places, but i think thats all it really has going for it. We never considered it.

Marius34 · 20-05-2021 02:33PM

cnocbui wrote: »

False information from the Construction Industry Federation - so poorly regarded that newspapers are quoting them, along with ministers in the Dail? You are flogging a dead horse.

I don't have access to your link, it just not unusual that media gets something wrong. Who speaks about funding CIF, or media reporter? Can you share CIF quotation

genericgoon · 20-05-2021 02:34PM

cnocbui wrote: »

The Irish tax take from property taxes already exceeds the OECD average.

First the data does not agree with you regarding recurring property taxes (i.e. LPT). See here: https://doi.org/10.1787/888934079402. I assume you are referring to the OECD report on total property tax take which includes non-recurring sources such as stamp duty and inheritance taxes.

Secondly, most of what is said above would be true even if LPT were left at current levels but exemptions/credits applied by the same mechanism.

cnocbui · 20-05-2021 02:44PM

genericgoon wrote: »

First the data does not agree with you regarding recurring property taxes (i.e. LPT). See here: https://doi.org/10.1787/888934079402. I assume you are referring to the OECD report on total property tax take which includes non-recurring sources such as stamp duty and inheritance taxes.

Secondly, most of what is said above would be true even if LPT were left at current levels but exemptions/credits applied by the same mechanism.

I was referring to this: https://taxfoundation.org/country/ireland

cnocbui · 20-05-2021 02:48PM

Marius34 wrote: »

I don't have access to your link, it just not unusual that media gets something wrong. Who speaks about funding CIF, or media reporter? Can you share CIF quotation

Just 8,000 houses built last year offered for sale on open market, says CIF
Investment funds bought 95% of 3,644 apartments completed last year

Wed, Feb 19, 2020, 05:08
Barry O'Halloran
...
Only about 8,000 of the 21,000 new homes built in the Republic last year were offered for sale on the open market, according to the Construction Industry Federation.

The federation, which represents most builders, says that the State acquired at least 4,400 new homes for social housing, while investment funds bought 95 per cent of the 3,644 apartments completed here last year.

As a consequence, the federation says that many people seeking to buy their first home “continued to find themselves locked out of the market”.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/just-8-000-houses-built-last-year-offered-for-sale-on-open-market-says-cif-1.4177876

genericgoon · 20-05-2021 02:53PM

cnocbui wrote: »

I was referring to this: https://taxfoundation.org/country/ireland

Based on the table provided of what qualifies as a "property tax" then it would seem the comparison on that site is indeed based on a combination of recurring (e.g. LPT) and non-recurring (e.g. inheritance) taxes. My focus was on recurring taxation which is slightly below average as per the OECD 2020 report on Ireland.

awec · 20-05-2021 02:56PM

DataDude wrote: »

That's a fabulous house. There's definitely a massive jump in quality if you can stretch to €1.5m+, I guess you're really into small numbers of people able to compete at that threshold.

I've always noticed that Rathmichael gives incredible bang for your buck. Absolutely 0 desire to live there though. Basically Kilmac with a Dublin address and more expensive houses. Wrong side of N11, nothing there, awkward to get anywhere from...anyone disagree and think it's worth considering?

Edit - just realised you could replace Rathmichael with Foxrock above and it would still hold true...and that seems to remain fairly popular!

I never understood why Foxrock was so popular. There is nothing in it!

Cyrus · 20-05-2021 03:02PM

Ordinary house in an extraordinary location

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/uninterrupted-sea-views-in-dalkey-for-2-85m-1.4565420?localLinksEnabled=false&utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Gang+warns+it+will+publish+HSE+data+unless+ransom+paid+by+Monday+-+report&utm_campaign=lunchtime_latest_digest

Cyrus · 20-05-2021 03:03PM

awec wrote: »

I never understood why Foxrock was so popular. There is nothing in it!

totally agree, as someone else once said the main thing it has is proximity to other rich people

Marius34 · 20-05-2021 03:05PM

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/just-8-000-houses-built-last-year-offered-for-sale-on-open-market-says-cif-1.4177876

doesn't say anything about funding. Many of them may well be funded, and bought the whole project.

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting