Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

SJFly · 20-05-2021 07:51AM

I wonder how they decide which age cohort you are in for vaccine allocation. It could be a precise calculation based on actual date of birth, or a rough calculation based on year of birth. Or it could be based on the age cohort you declared yourself to be in when you register. We know it was possible for over 45s to register a couple of days ago if they selected the over 50 age group.
It will be interesting to watch the rest of the 49 year old appointments. Are they being routinely offered J&J or was the previous case an anomaly.

iguana · 20-05-2021 07:51AM

pc7 wrote: »

On news talk saying 89 didn’t turn up one day this week in drogheda. That makes me think people aren’t getting the texts. Why would you register and not respond/turn up.

My parents didn't get theirs, so it's definitely a thing. Their phone is set to block spam and robotexts, so we kind of suspect that may have been the issue.

Vaccinated30 · 20-05-2021 07:53AM

Lumen wrote: »

The risk of a blood clot isn't "small", it's so miniscule as to be barely statistically significant.

Our brains can't really process the concept of a one in hundreds of thousands risk, so we just focus on the one.

Anyone who is happy to fly or drive but scared of a vaccine is an idiot. I realise I should be using warmer, more inclusive language but that's the truth.

And how many people have a fear of flying, I most certainly do, I'm 31 and never been in an aeroplane or a boat in my life. Are you going to call me an idiot?
You are happy to get AZ, so get it. Nobody is calling you names for wanting it. So offer the same courtesy to others, who are actually doing nothing wrong except following NIAC advice which says they can choose an mrna vaccine if they want.

Perhaps you should call NIAC the idiots for giving this advice based on the Data they have.

Lumen · 20-05-2021 07:53AM

Do they not send emails too? That would be logical since they're essentially free, and you have to verify an email address during registration.

Lumen · 20-05-2021 07:56AM

Vaccinated30 wrote: »

You are happy to get AZ, so get it. Nobody is calling you names for wanting it.

Can you suggest a suitable term of abuse for someone who attempts to make decisions based on objective facts? Nerd?

mossie · 20-05-2021 07:56AM

Lumen wrote: »

Do they not send emails too? That would be logical since they're essentially free, and you have to verify an email address during registration.

I only got a text with the appointment, no email.

pc7 · 20-05-2021 07:58AM

Cloudio9 wrote: »

89 out of how many though?

Also they will have built in a no-show rate to their models so not necessarily a big deal.

Think 300 odd turned up, can’t remember exact figure. It is a big deal as was a large percentage of there is a notification issue it needs to be dealt with.

iguana · 20-05-2021 08:02AM

Lumen wrote: »

The risk of a blood clot isn't "small", it's so miniscule as to be barely statistically significant.

Our brains can't really process the concept of a one in hundreds of thousands risk, so we just focus on the one.

Anyone who is happy to fly or drive but scared of a vaccine is an idiot. I realise I should be using warmer, more inclusive language but that's the truth.

For people in their 40s the risk is currently 1 in less than 50k. (2.1 cases per 100k.) That's currently the highest risk bracket. And it's unknown currently but the risk may well be higher for women, lower for men. As someone who is high risk for CVST and has been hospitalised 3 times due to severe loss of blood pressure to my brain, I won't be choosing to take an ad-vector vaccine.

Vaccinated30 · 20-05-2021 08:08AM

Lumen wrote: »

Can you suggest a suitable term of abuse for someone who attempts to make decisions based on objective facts? Nerd?

You can call yourself whatever you like. It's your decision, your vaccine, your risk and your life. I do have a name for people who do their own research and say experts are wrong and they are right... It rhymes with Thonspiracy Ceorist

Lumen · 20-05-2021 08:08AM

iguana wrote: »

For people in their 40s the risk is currently 1 in less than 50k. (2.1 cases per 100k.)

Source?

20-05-2021 08:17AM

Lumen wrote: »

Source?

The MHRA and the Winton Centre at Cambridge.

It's all easily accessible. Maybe you should inform yourself before calling people idiots.

Marcusm · 20-05-2021 08:19AM

Sorry for posting something behind a paywall but many of you will have free articles.

Emergent Biosolutions seems to be behind the delay in J&J worldwide. 100m doses currently sequestered to establish whether certain issues at its Baltimore plant could impact on the vaccine. Issues seem to relate to mild, cleanliness etc. I assume that the vaccine components were produced in sterile areas. This is also the plant which had to junk 15m doses because of possible cross-contamination of AZ and J&J materials. While there is testifying before IS Congress etc, I wonder is there any real pressure on them to reverify the stockpile or will it just go to waste and impede rollout elsewhere in the world.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/19/us/politics/emergent-vaccines.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Probes · 20-05-2021 08:20AM

Lumen wrote: »

The risk of a blood clot isn't "small", it's so miniscule as to be barely statistically significant.

Our brains can't really process the concept of a one in hundreds of thousands risk, so we just focus on the one.

Anyone who is happy to fly or drive but scared of a vaccine is an idiot. I realise I should be using warmer, more inclusive language but that's the truth.

Honestly, if that were true then there wouldn't be restrictions on the vaccine. It's clearly statistically significant now. I'm not against vaccines but it's not as open and shut as you claim, that's why under 50s are being offered an alternative.

iguana · 20-05-2021 08:21AM

Lumen wrote: »

Source?

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-benefits-risks-context

Marcusm · 20-05-2021 08:21AM

Vaccinated30 wrote: »

And how many people have a fear of flying, I most certainly do, I'm 31 and never been in an aeroplane or a boat in my life. Are you going to call me an idiot?
You are happy to get AZ, so get it. Nobody is calling you names for wanting it. So offer the same courtesy to others, who are actually doing nothing wrong except following NIAC advice which says they can choose an mrna vaccine if they want.

Perhaps you should call NIAC the idiots for giving this advice based on the Data they have.

To be clear, you are free to reject a non-mRNA vaccine and you should only be offered an adenovirus vector vaccine if an mRNA vaccine is available.

revelman · 20-05-2021 08:21AM

Flying Fox wrote: »

The MHRA and the Winton Centre at Cambridge.

It's all easily accessible. Maybe you should inform yourself before calling people idiots.

I’m pretty sure this data says that the risk of CVST is 1 in 95,000 for people in their forties. Unfortunately, 1 in 5 people can die of this clot. So the risk of death is roughly 1 in 500,000 for someone in their forties. It is higher for someone in their thirties. Someone can correct if me I am wrong on this.

Lumen · 20-05-2021 09:17AM

Flying Fox wrote: »

Maybe you should inform yourself before calling people idiots.

What I wrote was:

Lumen wrote: »

Anyone who is happy to fly or drive but scared of a vaccine is an idiot.

There are approximately 900 serious injuries on Irish roads every year. So the risk of that is about 1 in 6,000.

Even taking the highest age-related risk of AZ at 1 in 45,000, that makes the risk of serious injury using the roads for one year 7.5 times higher than the risk of getting a clotting event from AZ.

Therefore, if people who turn down AZ are being consistent about their risk aversion, they should be seeking to use the roads as little as possible, and yet I have never seen anyone admit to doing so. I know people who don't drive for various reasons, but they still take unnecessary road journeys.

I stand by the statement.

seamus · 20-05-2021 09:31AM

Flying Fox wrote: »

A 49 year old just posted on the appointments thread that they registered this morning and received a text this evening. Appointment is for J&J.

Seems that if you want to exercise your choice for an mRNA, you have to turn up to the appointment and tell them. Surely there's a better way to manage this than wasting slots?

This is how it's being done for now. They've been pretty clear that they haven't yet implemented any process for letting people choose their vaccine.

So if someone wants a choice, they're better off not registering yet.

Personally I'd say someone who's 49 and has been given a slot for J&J has hit the jackpot. One and done.

eviltimeban · 20-05-2021 09:38AM

HSE site won't recognise my Eircode (tried entering it with and without the space and or caps), nor will manually entering my address work, as it keeps telling me to complete each line (which I have).

Anyone else have that issue?

20-05-2021 09:40AM

seamus wrote: »

This is how it's being done for now. They've been pretty clear that they haven't yet implemented any process for letting people choose their vaccine.

So if someone wants a choice, they're better off not registering yet.

Personally I'd say someone who's 49 and has been given a slot for J&J has hit the jackpot. One and done.

Absolutely, there are huge advantages to J&J. But they are offering a choice so I'm just wondering how that's going to be managed.

Probes · 20-05-2021 09:41AM

revelman wrote: »

I’m pretty sure this data says that the risk of CVST is 1 in 95,000 for people in their forties. Unfortunately, 1 in 5 people can die of this clot. So the risk of death is roughly 1 in 500,000 for someone in their forties. It is higher for someone in their thirties. Someone can correct if me I am wrong on this.

I looked at the data, its highest risk for those in their 40s on the shared article. Over 1 in 50,000. That's a 0.002% chance of getting the clot and a 0.0004% chance of dying from it. Conversely, if we consider case loads of around 500 per day then a 40 year old has around an approximate 3.65% chance of catching Covid over the course of the year and a 0.0036% chance of dying in the year. When you take the vaccine obviously you take that chance straight away.*

*complete back of the fag packet maths that is likely wrong but shows why there is thought given to this.

20-05-2021 09:48AM

Lumen wrote: »

What I wrote was:

There are approximately 900 serious injuries on Irish roads every year. So the risk of that is about 1 in 6,000.

Even taking the highest age-related risk of AZ at 1 in 45,000, that makes the risk of serious injury using the roads for one year 7.5 times higher than the risk of getting a clotting event from AZ.

Therefore, if people who turn down AZ are being consistent about their risk aversion, they should be seeking to use the roads as little as possible, and yet I have never seen anyone admit to doing so. I know people who don't drive for various reasons, but they still take unnecessary road journeys.

I stand by the statement.

It's really not a valid comparison.

For some age groups, the viral vector vaccines pose a higher risk of serious harm than covid itself. Of course the responsible thing to do is to offer those people a different vaccine.

Cars are important to people's quality of life. The risks are accepted because the benefits are significant. There is no other choice of transport for many people, however we take action to mitigate risks by wearing seatbelts, checking tyres, driving carefully, etc.

1huge1 · 20-05-2021 09:49AM

eviltimeban wrote: »

HSE site won't recognise my Eircode (tried entering it with and without the space and or caps), nor will manually entering my address work, as it keeps telling me to complete each line (which I have).

Anyone else have that issue?

Just had a look on twitter, seems to be people having an issue across the board today with Eircodes, hopefully it'll be fixed shortly.

Scuid Mhór · 20-05-2021 09:49AM

Vaccinated30 wrote: »

And how many people have a fear of flying, I most certainly do, I'm 31 and never been in an aeroplane or a boat in my life. Are you going to call me an idiot?

Statistically speaking, it’s pretty irrational to have that fear. Just like it’s statistically irrational to fear blood clots from the vaccine. It’s not idiotic but it is irrational.

astrofool · 20-05-2021 09:54AM

revelman wrote: »

I’m pretty sure this data says that the risk of CVST is 1 in 95,000 for people in their forties. Unfortunately, 1 in 5 people can die of this clot. So the risk of death is roughly 1 in 500,000 for someone in their forties. It is higher for someone in their thirties. Someone can correct if me I am wrong on this.

Just on this, the difference from a few weeks ago (and seems to be getting ignored now) is that there is a treatment that can be used if CVST occurs and ways of identifying that it has occurred, there's quite a good article here about it, during the initial cases the wrong treatment was used which makes the effects more severe:
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2021-04/aha-got042921.php

km79 · 20-05-2021 09:58AM

1huge1 wrote: »

Just had a look on twitter, seems to be people having an issue across the board today with Eircodes, hopefully it'll be fixed shortly.

The latest batch of Eircodes were issued
I wonder is that causing problems

astrofool · 20-05-2021 09:58AM

Flying Fox wrote: »

It's really not a valid comparison.

For some age groups, the viral vector vaccines pose a higher risk of serious harm than covid itself. Of course the responsible thing to do is to offer those people a different vaccine.

Cars are important to people's quality of life. The risks are accepted because the benefits are significant. There is no other choice of transport for many people, however we take action to mitigate risks by wearing seatbelts, checking tyres, driving carefully, etc.

Those people (and this is the < 30's, not 40's and 50's where the risk from COVID is much higher) also have a very low risk from COVID so it is highly unlikely to have any effect by putting them to the back of the queue.

Those people will obviously not enjoy the freedoms that being vaccinated brings, but that's their choice.

Lumen · 20-05-2021 09:58AM

One of the many challenges facing NIAC is that their assessment is based on balancing the risk of vaccine damage against the risk of COVID damage, but the risk of COVID damage depends on us maintaining a high level of restrictions (are we still officially in level 5?).

We are currently teetering on the brink of a fresh wave of infection amongst unvaccinated people who are still the majority in this country. The risk of that wave is difficult to calculate, and to date we haven't accumulated lots of unused AZ+JJ, but if we start getting en masse vaccine refusals through June then we could end up with more infection, hospitalisation, death, and ongoing restrictions that was completely avoidable by us reaching a threshold of herd immunity a few weeks earlier using all the available vaccines.

In exchange for what? 10 people with clotting events, probably, in a population of 5 million.

That's the same number of new COVID hospitalisations we are seeing every single day.

duffman13 · 20-05-2021 10:02AM

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0520/1222754-covid-19-ireland/

65,000 vaccines administered on Monday and Tuesday combined. Not too bad for a start of the week but thought it would be slightly higher

Edit: Actually that's just MVC and doesn't include GPs so pretty good

JPup · 20-05-2021 10:03AM

Vaccinated30 wrote: »

And how many people have a fear of flying, I most certainly do, I'm 31 and never been in an aeroplane or a boat in my life. Are you going to call me an idiot?
You are happy to get AZ, so get it. Nobody is calling you names for wanting it. So offer the same courtesy to others, who are actually doing nothing wrong except following NIAC advice which says they can choose an mrna vaccine if they want.

Perhaps you should call NIAC the idiots for giving this advice based on the Data they have.

You can get treatment for those kind of debilitating phobias FYI. It would be a great freedom to you in your later years if you could travel more easily. Something to consider.

Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

Comments