Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

Mic 1972 · 19-05-2021 06:54PM

PropQueries wrote: »

One of his arguments to prevent apartment hoarding makes perfect sense:

"All empty apartments should be deemed to be rented out at 50 per cent of the asking rent and tax should be chargeable based on that deemed income. This would provide a strong incentive to adjust rents to market clearing levels rather speculative hoarding."

One would really wonder why the Housing Minister doesn't implement just that single one quickly as a very quick win.

Maybe because not all empty apartments are the result of hoarding. Small LLs may have reasons for leaving an apartment empty for a while. The one i'm buying at the moment was occupied by the LLs daughter for 2 years at no rent

PropQueries · 19-05-2021 06:57PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Maybe because not all empty apartments are the result of hoarding. Small LLs may have reasons for leaving an apartment empty for a while. The one i'm buying at the moment was occupied by the LLs daughter for 2 years at no rent

Denmark found a simple way around that line. Property owners are required to tell the state if their property is vacant and why. Otherwise they’re fined. Simple IMO

yagan · 19-05-2021 07:00PM

PropQueries wrote: »

One would really wonder why the Housing Minister doesn't implement just that single one quickly as a very quick win.

One reason may be that they don't want to be seen as the ones that popped this bubble. The average FFG voter is a homeowner with no or small mortgage so they've enjoyed seeing their house value climb.

They don't give a fig about apartment dwellers as it's not a sizeable a voter wedge, and some apartment dwellers in Dublin aren't voters either.

In a market correction people will still favour houses over apartments, so apartments will never matter, as borne out by the fact that renter farmers only caused outraged when the two up/two down was involved.

As far as I can see we've probably simply created new tenements.

yagan · 19-05-2021 07:04PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Maybe because not all empty apartments are the result of hoarding. Small LLs may have reasons for leaving an apartment empty for a while. The one i'm buying at the moment was occupied by the LLs daughter for 2 years at no rent

As in propquieres post that apartment would still attract a tax based on the going rate, even if she never paid a cent to her parent for the two years.

The whole point is discovery. If housing occupancy can't be measured then it can't be managed.

PropQueries · 19-05-2021 07:54PM

yagan wrote: »

As in propquieres post that apartment would still attract a tax based on the going rate, even if she never paid a cent to her parent for the two years.

The whole point is discovery. If housing occupancy can't be measured then it can't be managed.

I really don’t believe they want discovery and I’ll let others make up their own minds as to why.

Unless someone here can point out how anything proposed today is going to resolve the issue, it would appear (to me anyway), that the potential number of probates that some here are predicting may be about to flood the market is one of the few things that may help resolve the crisis in the near future, assuming the state doesn’t come up with a new way of placing roadblocks in front of that potential stream of supply re-entering the market IMO

enricoh · 19-05-2021 08:09PM

Up to 25k houses kept idle due to high taxes paid while their owners are in nursing homes.
The government better keep the rip off tax going as we can't have the a#$e falling out of the market with supply increases!

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/up-to-25000-homes-may-be-locked-out-of-housing-market-by-fair-deal-says-td-40443304.html

PropQueries · 19-05-2021 08:15PM

Bernard Durkan (FG) just stated in the Dail that the Central Bank and financial regulator didn’t tell Fine Gael about the funds buying up homes and he’s raised it in a committee.

Browney7 · 19-05-2021 08:16PM

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/varadkar-saysgovernment-needs-to-look-at-introducing-a-new-vacant-homes-tax-40446519.html

Interesting development from Leo suggesting a vacant home tax. Will he see that it is done?

cnocbui · 19-05-2021 08:19PM

Browney7 wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/varadkar-saysgovernment-needs-to-look-at-introducing-a-new-vacant-homes-tax-40446519.html

Interesting development from Leo suggesting a vacant home tax. Will he see that it is done?

That's my holiday home, it's not vacant.

hmmm · 19-05-2021 08:39PM

Browney7 wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/varadkar-saysgovernment-needs-to-look-at-introducing-a-new-vacant-homes-tax-40446519.html

Interesting development from Leo suggesting a vacant home tax. Will he see that it is done?

Can't see it happening, too much opposition.

We need to build more, apartments in particular. Politicians need to stop objecting because they aren't getting the social welfare semi-Ds they all seem to love.

awec · 19-05-2021 08:41PM

Browney7 wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/varadkar-saysgovernment-needs-to-look-at-introducing-a-new-vacant-homes-tax-40446519.html

Interesting development from Leo suggesting a vacant home tax. Will he see that it is done?

Oh I'd say they'll look at it alright. Then they'll argue over the definition of "vacant". Then they'll try figure out how they are going to find the vacant properties to begin with. And then they'll need to figure out what the tax will be.

And this will drag on for months and months and in the end there'll either be nothing, or some thin tax that will affect few people.

Browney7 · 19-05-2021 08:43PM

awec wrote: »

Oh I'd say they'll look at it alright. Then they'll argue over the definition of "vacant". Then they'll try figure out how they are going to find the vacant properties to begin with. And then they'll need to figure out what the tax will be.

And this will drag on for months and months and in the end there'll either be nothing, or some thin tax that will affect few people.

Now now, don't be cynical, Leo will fix it with his kite!

Ozark707 · 19-05-2021 08:45PM

hmmm wrote: »

Can't see it happening, too much opposition.

We need to build more, apartments in particular. Politicians need to stop objecting because they aren't getting the social welfare semi-Ds they all seem to love.

Leo really is not at the races. He knows that his time will come to an end unless he can deliver something meaningful. If he is just talking about setting up a committee to look into it then that is unlikely to deliver any noticeable increase in supply before the next election. If he is serious he would come out proposing what sort of tax it would be.

awec · 19-05-2021 08:47PM

Browney7 wrote: »

Now now, don't be cynical, Leo will fix it with his kite!

REITs can't vote, so maybe they'll find a way to structure it so that it only affects institutions.

cnocbui · 19-05-2021 09:10PM

Well that was pretty prophetic of me:

I have chosen not to renovate my 'holiday' home because I did not think the revenue that might be achievable would justify the cost. I could have predicated my cost benefit on an income stream from AirBnb and the government could hove come along a week after I had hocked myself to the eyeballs and banned AirBnb due to some local nimby with an existing hotel making a stink.

He also said he was working on the regulation of online letting platforms, such as AirBnB, with Tourism Minister Catherine Martin and that he hoped this work will be concluded before the end of the summer. Under the new plan a property could not be advertised on the platform without the requisite planning permission having been obtained, Mr O'Brien said.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/varadkar-saysgovernment-needs-to-look-at-introducing-a-new-vacant-homes-tax-40446519.html

And we all know you'd have no chance of being granted planning - a system that is very broken. And people wonder why property owners don't borrow money to fix up old structures.

PropQueries · 19-05-2021 09:11PM

awec wrote: »

REITs can't vote, so maybe they'll find a way to structure it so that it only affects institutions.

It’s hardly rocket science and there’s plenty of off the shelf templates from other countries they could use if they truly wanted. As mentioned, Denmark requires property owners to inform the state when a property becomes vacant and if it remains vacant, to explain why or they fine the property owner.

Whatever their reasons for not resolving the housing issue, it’s not due to a lack of off the shelf solutions already used in many other countries IMO

Roisin Shortall said in the Dail tonight that Paris has a 60% vacant home tax. Can anyone here clarify if she’s right and if so, how it works?

Pussyhands · 19-05-2021 09:12PM

Browney7 wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/varadkar-saysgovernment-needs-to-look-at-introducing-a-new-vacant-homes-tax-40446519.html

Interesting development from Leo suggesting a vacant home tax. Will he see that it is done?

No.

Leo is master of saying good things.

"We should/could/would do [insert X]"

cnocbui · 19-05-2021 09:49PM

PropQueries wrote: »

It’s hardly rocket science and there’s plenty of off the shelf templates from other countries they could use if they truly wanted. As mentioned, Denmark requires property owners to inform the state when a property becomes vacant and if it remains vacant, to explain why or they fine the property owner.

Whatever their reasons for not resolving the housing issue, it’s not due to a lack of off the shelf solutions already used in many other countries IMO

Roisin Shortall said in the Dail tonight that Paris has a 60% vacant home tax. Can anyone here clarify if she’s right and if so, how it works?

I can tell you are very excited by the thought of a 60% tax on property owners.

I believe that tax does not relate to the market value of the property, but is a sort of surcharge on existing rates. There are a few caveats as well - the property has to have been vacant for two years, it doesn't apply if the cost to renovate to a habitable standard is greater than 25% of the market value, they have to be free of furniture, exempting secondary residences, also exempt if advertised for rent at market rates but no one has taken it up. Also exempt if the property is occupied for 3 month stretch in a year.

coolshannagh28 · 19-05-2021 10:03PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Bernard Durkan (FG) just stated in the Dail that the Central Bank and financial regulator didn’t tell Fine Gael about the funds buying up homes and he’s raised it in a committee.

He has started to put the meal behind the pot !

Bass Reeves · 19-05-2021 10:14PM

cnocbui wrote: »

I can tell you are very excited by the thought of a 60% tax on property owners.

I believe that tax does not relate to the market value of the property, but is a sort of surcharge on existing rates. There are a few caveats as well - the property has to have been vacant for two years, it doesn't apply if the cost to renovate to a habitable standard is greater than 25% of the market value, they have to be free of furniture, exempting secondary residences, also exempt if advertised for rent at market rates but no one has taken it up. Also exempt if the property is occupied for 3 month stretch in a year.

In other words another tax that is easy to get around. It's a great sound bite for leftist thinking but immaterial in the scale of things

PropQueries · 19-05-2021 11:20PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

In other words another tax that is easy to get around. It's a great sound bite for leftist thinking but immaterial in the scale of things

Leftest? Dermot Desmond said last year:

“All empty apartments should be deemed to be rented out at 50 per cent of the asking rent and tax should be chargeable based on that deemed income. This would provide a strong incentive to adjust rents to market clearing levels rather speculative hoarding."

Link to Dermot Desmond in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/dermot-desmond-everyone-has-a-right-to-a-home-here-is-how-it-can-be-done-1.4195439

PropQueries · 19-05-2021 11:23PM

cnocbui wrote: »

I can tell you are very excited by the thought of a 60% tax on property owners.

I believe that tax does not relate to the market value of the property, but is a sort of surcharge on existing rates. There are a few caveats as well - the property has to have been vacant for two years, it doesn't apply if the cost to renovate to a habitable standard is greater than 25% of the market value, they have to be free of furniture, exempting secondary residences, also exempt if advertised for rent at market rates but no one has taken it up. Also exempt if the property is occupied for 3 month stretch in a year.

Well if it stops any further taxes on my home, income or pension, then yes, I would be very excited about a proper and enforced tax on vacant or derelict property

Murph85 · 20-05-2021 07:58AM

They are going to have to find tax increases from somewhere shortly fo pay for covid and the tens of billions borrowed. Good luck trying to get that from workers etc again, so soon after the previous bust. It will be the old reliables in the budget and likely more money raised from vacant properties, incresed stamp duty, councils actually collecting the social housing rents due etc...

yagan · 20-05-2021 08:24AM

Murph85 wrote: »

They are going to have to find tax increases from somewhere shortly fo pay for covid and the tens of billions borrowed. Good luck trying to get that from workers etc again, so soon after the previous bust. It will be the old reliables in the budget and likely more money raised from vacant properties, incresed stamp duty, councils actually collecting the social housing rents due etc...

You're right. The voter dial is shifting against vacants and the investor model, so the current government are only chasing that narrative rather than shaping it.

Trying to apply more tax on workers while investor funds enjoy tax breaks is only going to be a festering sore.

genericgoon · 20-05-2021 08:43AM

Vacant house/site levies are far too easy to get around. Would make more sense to increase local property tax (LPT) substantially and then give an exemption/credit based on declaration to Revenue that the house is a principal private residence (PPR) and thus switch around the burden of proof and thus ability to punish those making false statements.

In addition, a benchmark of a fair rental contract should be introduced with controlled rents. "Fair" rent could be on the basis of equivalent cost rental or tied explicitly to median incomes (my preference), then give these the same LPT exemption/credit as PPRs. Would also give an opportunity to set a standardized contract that removes the biggest sources of tension between tenants (withheld deposits, maintenance) and landlords (anti-social behaviour, unpaid rent) with clauses relating to third party deposit holding, removing all non-payment related eviction criteria and other needed changes. Offer a fast track RTB scheme (since contract will be known a priori) which means better outcomes against bad landlords (maintenance) and bad tenants (faster eviction for non-payment).

Then introduce a site tax for all undeveloped (and classify it as undeveloped until the houses/apartments are eligible for LPT) zoned land and ramp this up way high and use that revenue to reduce development levies and/or VAT on building. Reform the SHD legislation to be more Japan-like i.e. if your development is consistent with local development plan then can be fast tracked. That should hopefully give a leg up to those who want to build rather than speculative chancers looking to increase site values with deliberately provocative plans.

A lot of people would likely lose money quickly on the above (banks, holiday home owners, developers etc. etc.) but at this point the long term costs of not doing so will be much bigger thanks to emigration, misplaced investment, poverty/homelessness etc.

MacronvFrugals · 20-05-2021 09:09AM

I see Jim O' Callaghan wants to put a muzzle on REIT's somewhat...

https://twitter.com/McConnellDaniel/status/1395113899985444872?s=20

timmyntc · 20-05-2021 09:12AM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I see Jim O' Callaghan wants to put a muzzle on REIT's somewhat...

https://twitter.com/McConnellDaniel/status/1395113899985444872?s=20

In fairness that is the right approach - we want REITs to add to supply, not buy existing supply.

Right now between REIT and council we have extra demand but no extra supply.

MacronvFrugals · 20-05-2021 09:32AM

timmyntc wrote: »

In fairness that is the right approach - we want REITs to add to supply, not buy existing supply.

Right now between REIT and council we have extra demand but no extra supply.

I sense FF know deep down its a shift to the left or annihilation

Ozark707 · 20-05-2021 09:41AM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I sense FF know deep down its a shift to the left or annihilation

Yep it looks like annihilation as these measures being proposed are unlikely to increase the supply enough in the short to medium term to reduce house prices or deliver a step decrease in rents.

Villa05 · 20-05-2021 10:09AM

Cyrus wrote:

its a typical clickbait twitter post, clearly apartments at 3.5k per month arent meant for the 75% of people who earn less than 40k a year, a monkey could tell you that.

Are we not at 2,5k per month for social housing. That's unaffordable for the majority of workers

Maybe we should get monkeys to run the country

L1011 wrote:

PropQueries misrepresented it as support for his claim that the housing crisis doesn't actually exist, which is a farcical conclusion to draw from it. Just read the post that was initially quoted

FG appointed Conor Skehan to chair of the housing agency and he continually declares that there is no housing crisis and that our housing market is normal

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting