Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

L1011 · 19-05-2021 04:26PM

bubblypop wrote: »

How long was the maynooth housing estate on the market?
Some homes had been bought buy individuals before this REIT bought yes?

Phase 1 of the estate was built before it was ever advertised - not unheard of but uncommon. This was sold Autumn 2020, albeit its not yet inhabited as there was no water/sewage connected.

As far as I know, all that happened for the further phases (2-4 I think) was that names were being taken by the EAs to contact back. During this time they were initially negotiating with an AHB to sell the lot; then a smaller amount (and presumably to sell the rest individually, if they were still having an EA take names)

JimmyVik · 19-05-2021 04:27PM

bubblypop wrote: »

How long was the maynooth housing estate on the market?
Some homes had been bought buy individuals before this REIT bought yes?

I know someone who had paid a deposit.
After the news was announced they asked for it back and got it back with no quibbles.

PropQueries · 19-05-2021 04:29PM

timmyntc wrote: »

The post is clearly opinion though:

And to be honest, you only have to look at the governments track record up to this point to think that they dont see it as a housing crisis. After all, until the story about the estate in Maynooth broke (& the ensuing public outrage) the govt had no plans to stop institutional buyers.

And theres the strange comments like the below

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1394912203858452480

Yes, it is interesting and it's being reported today in the Irish Independent.

It's even more interesting given that FG should be a lot more knowledgeable on the real current state of the issues surrounding the current housing supply/crisis given that they have been in Government for the past 10 years.

"However, a disagreement arose towards the end of the Cabinet meeting after Micheál Martin told ministers that housing was the “number one priority” for the Government and invited top civil servant Martin Fraser to explain how this would be co-ordinated across departments.

At this point, Leo Varadkar made what two sources described as a “bizarre” intervention to say this had not been agreed.

The Fine Gael leader is understood to have questioned what making housing a “number one priority” meant in practice and sought an assurance the Government would not downgrade other priority areas such as health, unemployment, climate action and education."

Link to article in Irish Independent today: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/crackdown-on-cuckoo-funds-buying-up-housing-estates-leads-to-split-in-coalition-40443325.html

awec · 19-05-2021 04:33PM

None of this gives any indication whatsoever that the govt thinks there is no housing crisis.

timmyntc · 19-05-2021 04:41PM

To those unconvinced that we are far from a normal market with normal prices:

https://twitter.com/Orla_Hegarty/status/1395033178981683209

You really have to question who these apartments are for at 3.5k a month.
Assuming 2 adults in the place, its an annual rent per person of 21k :eek:

PropQueries · 19-05-2021 04:48PM

timmyntc wrote: »

To those unconvinced that we are far from a normal market with normal prices:

https://twitter.com/Orla_Hegarty/status/1395033178981683209

You really have to question who these apartments are for at 3.5k a month.
Assuming 2 adults in the place, its an annual rent per person of 21k :eek:

Well, given that DLR county council was apparently proposing to pay up to c. €3,000 per month for apartments in Dundrum (as reported in the Irish Independent), those apartments should supposedly look like a steal to DCC for such a "prime" location, should they ever choose to engage with Greystar of course IMO

Link to Irish Independent article here: https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/council-pays-up-to-3000-a-month-to-rent-plush-flats-off-cuckoo-fund-38740107.html

Cyrus · 19-05-2021 04:54PM

timmyntc wrote: »

To those unconvinced that we are far from a normal market with normal prices:

https://twitter.com/Orla_Hegarty/status/1395033178981683209

You really have to question who these apartments are for at 3.5k a month.
Assuming 2 adults in the place, its an annual rent per person of 21k :eek:

it wouldnt be for me, but people have rented places in the past for 3.5k per month and will continue to rent them into the future,

its a typical clickbait twitter post, clearly apartments at 3.5k per month arent meant for the 75% of people who earn less than 40k a year, a monkey could tell you that.

javaboy · 19-05-2021 04:56PM

Cyrus wrote: »

it wouldnt be for me, but people have rented places in the past for 3.5k per month and will continue to rent them into the future,

its a typical clickbait twitter post, clearly apartments at 3.5k per month arent meant for the 75% of people who earn less than 40k a year, a monkey could tell you that.

Exactly. Plenty of people can and do pay that for a luxury, central apt. It's 3 bed with a heap of services included.

Breaking news: there are expensive cars too :eek:

jill_valentine · 19-05-2021 04:59PM

L1011 wrote: »

Except its citing an article to "prove" it, when it doesn't. If the false cite wasn't there the post wouldn't be a problem. Anyway, this is off-topic.

Posted an article, and his conclusions from it, which were clearly signposted with "It seems to me..."

A little unfair to snap at him for that, even if he did have form for mis-citing? It's not what happened there.

We're all entitled to express opinions on things, even if they're weird or annoying.

riclad wrote: »

This is a trend in all western countrys, house prices are rising in the last year.i think the trend will mean be impossible for most single people to buy a house ,they will buy a small 1 bed apartment or else buy outside citys and commute to work.

I actually wouldn't mind this so much if buying small 1 bed apartments was a realistic option here. I'd love one. Indeed, I think it's the model we should be shooting for because it's more efficient on land and resources. 1 off housing isn't super ecological or infrastructurally efficient.

The problem is, the government isn't doing anything to facilitate that. The fact they regularly differentiate between "homes" and "apartments" when speaking gives the game away - they don't live in them, or know anybody who does. Their relationship to apartments are as an asset class exclusively, and anybody who does live in one probably isn't one of their voters so they don't count. Hence they were fine with cuckoos sweeping up units all over the place until now, so long as those units weren't houses; even now the crappy lip service changes they're making specifically exempt apartments.

Apartments are now built almost exclusively to rent or hold, so we only build 2-3 bed apartments now to rent farm or sit in portfolios. 1 beds to buy are like gold dust, most of the ones I've seen date from at least the 90s if not the 80s. And on the other side of that, bank mortgage rules for at least one lender penalise you for buying a 1 bed vs a "family home". So we have created a market where okay, people can't afford to buy houses, but they have no alternative options in reach to to buy instead either.

Bearing in mind that the biggest demo block in our known homeless population are single men, this is clearly something that would be in demand if we had it. To me the biggest single gap in our national housing supply is clearly units for single buyers.

But they're also the exact type of property that don't make economic sense for a large scale commercial builder. The obvious route out of the housing crisis, to me, will involve work in that direction, not least because taking those singletons off the table takes a lot of value out of buying a 2 bed townhouse to chop into a 6 person rental tenement.

But the major commercial players in the market have no incentive to go that way with things as they are. It will absolutely require government intervention to generate those units, and until that happens, I think a great deal of our present problems will remain intractable.

Which is all fine until all the current tranche of 30-50 year old singletons burning rent their whole career have to start retiring somewhere on pensions they don't have to places that don't exist.

jill_valentine · 19-05-2021 05:04PM

Cyrus wrote: »

it wouldnt be for me, but people have rented places in the past for 3.5k per month and will continue to rent them into the future,

its a typical clickbait twitter post, clearly apartments at 3.5k per month arent meant for the 75% of people who earn less than 40k a year, a monkey could tell you that.

They also don't seem to be filling them that easy...

https://twitter.com/killianwoods/status/1363987246018420741

yagan · 19-05-2021 05:05PM

L1011 wrote: »

The user in question repeatedly tries to make "commentary" out of what are just their own opinions, not backed up by the article they are linking to.

The opinions expressed in that IT piece match the opinion that the government aren't really serious about tackling this crisis.

It ludicrous that apartments are exempt from the new stamp duty rate, it's as if they're openly admitting they not interested in votes from those who can only afford apartments.

What about any of those opinions doesn't match what Propquieries said?

Cyrus · 19-05-2021 05:09PM

DataDude wrote: »

I take your point on other professions earning more these days, but no matter which way you slice it €200k is a good income. And I know I've said it oodles of time on here but I just can't help but feel there is way way more houses that are nice as the one I linked than there are €200k+ incomes.

just on that, it certainly feels that way i would agree, but i suppose what counts is how quickly they come to the market, at the moment there arent enough of them (judging by the achieved prices at the 800k+ asking price end of the market). If a load come on stream then houses will exceed buyers and prices will fall but it will be interesting to see how it pans out.

what is for sure is that there is a lot more ways to make a large salary nowadays than there was 40 years ago, which may be galling for consultants (and i know it is for solicitor friends of mine) but the world moves on.

yagan · 19-05-2021 05:10PM

jill_valentine wrote: »

They also don't seem to be filling them that easy...

https://twitter.com/killianwoods/status/1363987246018420741

Reminds me this from 2007...

DEVELOPERS are offering house buyers an incentive of a ?20,000 car if they buy into an exclusive new development in Wexford.

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/wexfordpeople/news/house-buyers-offered-free-car-in-drive-to-boost-sales-27670597.html

Cyrus · 19-05-2021 05:11PM

jill_valentine wrote: »

They also don't seem to be filling them that easy...

perhaps not but what does that have to do with what i posted?

jill_valentine · 19-05-2021 05:13PM

Cyrus wrote: »

perhaps not but what does that have to do with what i posted?

It's in concert with your point, not disagreement.

Those headline rents are eye catchingly crazy high - but very few people are really paying them.

Quayside Quarter is another one that's been offering "free" month's rent for the last year, and their occupancy is still dire.

Browney7 · 19-05-2021 05:13PM

Cyrus wrote: »

it wouldnt be for me, but people have rented places in the past for 3.5k per month and will continue to rent them into the future,

its a typical clickbait twitter post, clearly apartments at 3.5k per month arent meant for the 75% of people who earn less than 40k a year, a monkey could tell you that.

To be fair, the expectation of commentators and opposition is that apartments of this nature is all that is going to be built in Dublin city based on recent developments. If we build nothing for people who earn less than the 40k, where do these people live?

If these developments suck up all available construction workers over the next number of years and get built, are the current crop of renters going to move out of shared accom at 1k a room into 2k to 3k a month apartments? Or are these going to be luxury serviced apartments to house tech employees that will be paid for by the GCD silicon docks companies?

Or is that being alarmist?

I'd love to know what projections are being done in departments of what levels of luxury/standard/budget/social accomm needs to be brought on stream for the current situation (or crisis depending on your view) to start to improve. I just don't see what the end game is here with current thinking

Cyrus · 19-05-2021 05:16PM

Browney7 wrote: »

To be fair, the expectation of commentators and opposition is that apartments of this nature is all that is going to be built in Dublin city based on recent developments. If we build nothing for people who earn less than the 40k, where do these people live?

If these developments suck up all available construction workers over the next number of years and get built, are the current crop of renters going to move out of shared accom at 1k a room into 2k to 3k a month apartments? Or are these going to be luxury serviced apartments to house tech employees that will be paid for by the GCD silicon docks companies?

Or is that being alarmist?

I'd love to know what projections are being done in departments of what levels of luxury/standard/budget/social accomm needs to be brought on stream for the current situation (or crisis depending on your view) to start to improve. I just don't see what the end game is here with current thinking

if all they build is luxury apartments with rents north of 3k a month then a large portion are going to be empty with no return on that investment. I presume whoever is building them has done their research, if they havent they could be in deep water.

Mad_maxx · 19-05-2021 05:24PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Yes, it is interesting and it's being reported today in the Irish Independent.

It's even more interesting given that FG should be a lot more knowledgeable on the real current state of the issues surrounding the current housing supply/crisis given that they have been in Government for the past 10 years.

"However, a disagreement arose towards the end of the Cabinet meeting after Micheál Martin told ministers that housing was the “number one priority” for the Government and invited top civil servant Martin Fraser to explain how this would be co-ordinated across departments.

At this point, Leo Varadkar made what two sources described as a “bizarre” intervention to say this had not been agreed.

The Fine Gael leader is understood to have questioned what making housing a “number one priority” meant in practice and sought an assurance the Government would not downgrade other priority areas such as health, unemployment, climate action and education."

Link to article in Irish Independent today: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/crackdown-on-cuckoo-funds-buying-up-housing-estates-leads-to-split-in-coalition-40443325.html

No surprise there , Michael Martin has always been led by media pressure so its no surprise he sees dancing to this tune as his biggest priority

a follower of the highest order , no leadership ability whatsoever

Browney7 · 19-05-2021 05:25PM

Cyrus wrote: »

if all they build is luxury apartments with rents north of 3k a month then a large portion are going to be empty with no return on that investment. I presume whoever is building them has done their research, if they havent they could be in deep water.

I agree they should be in deep water. However, the councils have form on agreeing to rent them for social housing, Dundrum, numerous in Stoneybatter (Aberdeen standard, Bartra etc) and the DLR development mentioned at the weekend.

If these are being built on the basis that the councils are schmucks and will lease them at a "discount" to the aspirational market value that would never be realised under the enhanced leasing deals and councils follow through, we're being laughed at.

I personally have no faith in councils to act with any degree of common sense and will buckle under a weight of "we've tried absolutely nothing and we're all out of ideas".

Maybe though the state will engage in this game of chicken and refuse to blink and not pay up - I won't be holding my breath.

L1011 · 19-05-2021 05:37PM

yagan wrote: »

The opinions expressed in that IT piece match the opinion that the government aren't really serious about tackling this crisis.

It ludicrous that apartments are exempt from the new stamp duty rate, it's as if they're openly admitting they not interested in votes from those who can only afford apartments.

What about any of those opinions doesn't match what Propquieries said?

PropQueries misrepresented it as support for his claim that the housing crisis doesn't actually exist, which is a farcical conclusion to draw from it. Just read the post that was initially quoted

There is a pattern of misrepresenting that articles support fanciful beliefs which has been warned about repeatedly.

John1648 · 19-05-2021 05:39PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Its clear when property is overvalued - whether that be from supply shortages or other reasons, - you can base the "good value" price on construction costs, land costs, and yes some relation of affordability to the average salary in the area. Identifying the absolute peak is difficult, but its easy to say we are well above normal, and well above "value for money".

Seeing the bottom is a different story though, properties were undervalued at that stage due to such a glut of supply and non-existent demand. Country was reeling, and prices were plummeting, but you couldnt calculate what price they would fall to - because it was purely supply vs demand taken to the other extreme.

A functioning market does not see houses go up for sale well below cost price, because it isnt profitable to build them in the first place. So when it does happen, it is very unusual and not easily predictable if at all.

I have done my share of analysis, and looked at a few other markets in EU, and the Irish property is the most undervalued, compared in yearly salaries vs sale price.

40 k yearly salary, 10 yearly salaries buys you a home in the capital.

Paris, 15 years, London-18 years, Budapest - 20 years, Moscow - 25 years.

So- prices are waaaaay to go up still. Plus, the best rental yields in EU.

That is why I am considering Dublin, Citywest namely.

I would not even consider prices going down naturally in Dublin, unless a majour crash happens like in 2008, but then everyone goes down elsewhere too.

Plus, the best demographic outlook in Europe, + 30% population growth by 2050. Even if a part of youth leaves, demand will stay very strong.

What do you think?

yagan · 19-05-2021 05:46PM

L1011 wrote: »

PropQueries misrepresented it as support for his claim that the housing crisis doesn't actually exist, which is a farcical conclusion to draw from it. Just read the post that was initially quoted

There is a pattern of misrepresenting that articles support fanciful beliefs which has been warned about repeatedly.

There's an affordability crisis, but that doesn't necessarily mean there's a housing shortage.

I know from working in the front end of property development that just because there's loads of outstanding permissions that doesn't mean they'll go ahead.

I see your responses to that one poster and I'm totally perplexed as to what's your argument.

yagan · 19-05-2021 05:49PM

John1648 wrote: »

So- prices are waaaaay to go up still. Plus, the best rental yields in EU.

Reported yields.

If rent breaks become permanent then you'll need to do fresh calculations.

jill_valentine · 19-05-2021 05:57PM

Browney7 wrote: »

I agree they should be in deep water. However, the councils have form on agreeing to rent them for social housing, Dundrum, numerous in Stoneybatter (Aberdeen standard, Bartra etc) and the DLR development mentioned at the weekend.

If these are being built on the basis that the councils are schmucks and will lease them at a "discount" to the aspirational market value that would never be realised under the enhanced leasing deals and councils follow through, we're being laughed at.

I personally have no faith in councils to act with any degree of common sense and will buckle under a weight of "we've tried absolutely nothing and we're all out of ideas".

Maybe though the state will engage in this game of chicken and refuse to blink and not pay up - I won't be holding my breath.

Fair point, not sure about these ones though. These particular fancypants blocks make a lot of the luxury angle, they're in the same realm as Capitol Docks, which stashed its social housing element off in Rialto. I'm not sure leasing these ones to the council would be The Done Thing.

Browney7 · 19-05-2021 06:12PM

jill_valentine wrote: »

Fair point, not sure about these ones though. These particular fancypants blocks make a lot of the luxury angle, they're in the same realm as Capitol Docks, which stashed its social housing element off in Rialto. I'm not sure leasing these ones to the council would be The Done Thing.

It may not be the done thing. But if they leave them half vacant in lieu of reducing rents, does the argument being made at present of "all supply is good supply" hold up?

Time will tell but global markets seem happy to use property to park their money at present. Dermot Desmond (the raving socialist that he is) wrote an interesting piece for the Irish times last year covering a range of facets of the housing market: https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/dermot-desmond-everyone-has-a-right-to-a-home-here-is-how-it-can-be-done-1.4195439

Marius34 · 19-05-2021 06:16PM

Browney7 wrote: »

I agree they should be in deep water. However, the councils have form on agreeing to rent them for social housing, Dundrum, numerous in Stoneybatter (Aberdeen standard, Bartra etc) and the DLR development mentioned at the weekend.

If these are being built on the basis that the councils are schmucks and will lease them at a "discount" to the aspirational market value that would never be realised under the enhanced leasing deals and councils follow through, we're being laughed at.

I personally have no faith in councils to act with any degree of common sense and will buckle under a weight of "we've tried absolutely nothing and we're all out of ideas".

Maybe though the state will engage in this game of chicken and refuse to blink and not pay up - I won't be holding my breath.

I don't think it's the same type of apartments discussed in initial question for 3,500-5,000, that comes with 4-6 week free rent. I would guess those luxury city center apartments in question are not aimed for social housing by REITs.

Browney7 · 19-05-2021 06:26PM

Marius34 wrote: »

I don't think it's the same type of apartments discussed in initial question for 3,500-5,000, that comes with 4-6 week free rent. I would guess those luxury city center apartments in question are not aimed for social housing by REITs.

I agree they're not aimed at social housing but what's to stop DCC, DLR and other councils or state funded AHBs from leasing them? If we apply the market logic that these funds need to generate a return, they won't look the gift horse that is the Irish state in the mouth for long.

I'm not saying it will happen but there is plenty evidence available to show it is happening at present.

Is there a long term market for all these existing 2.5 k per month rental apartments or €1300 a month co-living spaces and the ones scheduled to come on stream that we are told we need REITs and funds to build that isn't the Irish taxpayer? Maybe there is.

Marius34 · 19-05-2021 06:31PM

Browney7 wrote: »

I agree they're not aimed at social housing but what's to stop DCC, DLR and other councils or state funded AHBs from leasing them? If we apply the market logic that these funds need to generate a return, they won't look the gift horse that is the Irish state in the mouth for long.

I'm not saying it will happen but there is plenty evidence available to show it is happening at present.

Is there a long term market for all these existing 2.5 k per month rental apartments or €1300 a month co-living spaces and the ones scheduled to come on stream that we are told we need REITs and funds to build that isn't the Irish taxpayer? Maybe there is.

Yes, there is. It was really lacking those type of apartments prior Covid. So it should now get more balanced.

Browney7 · 19-05-2021 06:32PM

Marius34 wrote: »

Yes, there is. It was really lacking those type of apartments prior Covid. So it should now get more balanced.

I hope you're right!

PropQueries · 19-05-2021 06:49PM

Browney7 wrote: »

It may not be the done thing. But if they leave them half vacant in lieu of reducing rents, does the argument being made at present of "all supply is good supply" hold up?

Time will tell but global markets seem happy to use property to park their money at present. Dermot Desmond (the raving socialist that he is) wrote an interesting piece for the Irish times last year covering a range of facets of the housing market: https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/dermot-desmond-everyone-has-a-right-to-a-home-here-is-how-it-can-be-done-1.4195439

One of his arguments to prevent apartment hoarding makes perfect sense:

"All empty apartments should be deemed to be rented out at 50 per cent of the asking rent and tax should be chargeable based on that deemed income. This would provide a strong incentive to adjust rents to market clearing levels rather speculative hoarding."

One would really wonder why the Housing Minister doesn't implement just that single one quickly as a very quick win.

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting