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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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  • #452
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 55,029 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    PropQueries wrote: »
    So, on the one side he's saying that we need c. 33k new built units each year for the next decade and then on the other side he's telling DLR that they can't build more than c. 2,500 new units per annum (for whatever reason) for the next six years in a c.120sq.km area right next to Dublin City and that isn't contradictory?

    Where does he want everyone to live as his colleague in the Department of Finance is planning to increase carbon taxes every year for the foreseeable future to encourage us to be more environmentally friendly and I assume urban sprawl isn't environmentally friendly.

    Those two sides also appear very contradictory to me, especially as you've already pointed out that that you believe remote working won't be as popular as some of us here believe it will be.
    It's not contradictory.

    I know you also know it's not contradictory as this was explained to you in great detail by knowledgeable people on the previous occasions you tried to make this point.

    We need houses. We need houses built in areas that can sustain an injection of population. Not allowing specific areas to grow beyond what services and infrastructure can cope with is not contradictory to needing houses.

    But I am not going to rehash all this, it's a waste of everyone's time. It is clear you have your mind made up and nothing will convince you otherwise. I could spend hours and you'll make the exact same point in a week.

    Here is a link to the last time this topic was extensively covered in case you want to read it again.


  • #453
    Geuze
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,276 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Geuze wrote: »
    The CBI publish the data on the earnings of people who get mortgages.



    See page 8

    https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/household-credit-market-report/household-credit-market-report-2020.pdf?sfvrsn=5


  • #454
    Marius34
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    timmyntc wrote: »
    It tells us the fundamentals are off.
    The main buyers cannot afford these houses, so who is buying them instead (and why?)

    It's neither normal or sustainable for institutional investors or local authorities to be buying up houses on this scale, and it wont last. When it stops, prices will drop somewhat. After that its a question of will they offload the property they own.

    For me fundaments is around Demands/Supplies. If you exclude some participants from equation, I don't see it as fundamentals anymore.

    Regarding how long it may last, I think Investors and government may participate on demand side for many years.


  • #455
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,769 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    PropQueries wrote: »
    It doesn't help that the Housing Minister, Taoiseach et.c have been spouting over the past week the we need e.g. c. 33k new built homes each year for the next decade while on the flip side, the Minister for Housing tells DLR county council that they can't build more than c. 2,500 new units per annum over the next 6 years despite DLR identifying and wanting c. 3,500 per annum.

    None of their recent actions/proposals/words make any sense if they truly believed there is a housing supply issue IMO

    It was explained in great detail to you why this was the case. You acted all shocked about it, so it would be very hard to believe that you don't remember it now.

    The time requirement to explain things over and over is not an acceptable draw on other peoples resources. So drop this topic.


  • #456
    PropQueries
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    awec wrote: »
    It's not contradictory.

    I know you also know it's not contradictory as this was explained to you in great detail by knowledgeable people on the previous occasions you tried to make this point.

    We need houses. We need houses built in areas that can sustain an injection of population. Not allowing specific areas to grow beyond what services and infrastructure can cope with is not contradictory to needing houses.

    But I am not going to rehash all this, it's a waste of everyone's time. It is clear you have your mind made up and nothing will convince you otherwise. I could spend hours and you'll make the exact same point in a week.

    If there's one thing that DLR has above nearly every other council area in Ireland, it's an abundance of infrastructure.

    Basically, the actions of our ministers don't appear to align with their public statements that they truly believe there is a housing shortage IMO


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  • #457
    Geuze
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,276 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    timmyntc wrote: »
    Average house price in Dublin right now is ~396,000.
    Average income in Dublin right now is around 45k

    Assuming two people on average wage looking for a joint mortgage, their maximum price is around 90k * 3.5 = 315,000

    So we are in a situation where more than half of all couples in the capital, cannot afford the average house. it begs the question - who IS buying all these homes?


    The CBI publish FTB data, see page 8:

    https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/household-credit-market-report/household-credit-market-report-2020.pdf?sfvrsn=5

    In Dublin, the average income is 90k, that is for all borrowers on the mortgage, combined.

    Average LTV is 80%.

    Average mortgage is 300k.

    Average deposit is 70-80k.


  • #458
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 55,029 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    PropQueries wrote: »
    If there's one thing that DLR has above nearly every other council area in Ireland, it's an abundance of infrastructure.

    Basically, the actions of our ministers don't appear to align with their public statements that they truly believe there is a housing shortage IMO

    Spoken like someone who knows nothing about DLR. Again, this was covered last time.


  • #459
    yagan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,689 ✭✭✭yagan


    timmyntc wrote: »
    But with local authorities signing long term leases with these funds their yield is guaranteed.
    How many of those funds have that guaranteed stream though?

    And wasn't government talking last week about reducing down the term times for such leases?

    With so many distortions to unwind it may take time for price to match average income.


  • #460
    Pussyhands
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Geuze wrote: »
    The CBI publish FTB data, see page 8:

    https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/household-credit-market-report/household-credit-market-report-2020.pdf?sfvrsn=5

    In Dublin, the average income is 90k, that is for all borrowers on the mortgage, combined.

    Average LTV is 80%.

    Average mortgage is 300k.

    Average deposit is 70-80k.

    That means 45k average right if it's a couple?


  • #461
    Murph85
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,067 ✭✭✭Murph85


    we will be here writing for years on this thread, there isnt a chance, we will have anything good to say about what they have done on housing... these issues take years and years to manifest, I hate politicians, but I would get out of it, if I were in politics now, or certainly if I were FFG. There are so many issues, that would take so long to resolve, there are endless vested interests.

    Nobody should pay for anything, except the middle, who are now the ones, who will start flexing their muscles, at last. We dont do infrastructure in this country, and their brilliant plan is, keep on pushing people out to the edge of the city, with zero infrastructure , where nobody wants to live by choice, infrastructure is costly, very time consuming in this country , huge carbon emissions from it. But keep on building 6 floors blocks in the docklands and let the peasants commute in, they will probably start supplying donkeys with the houses in maynooth etc in a few years. A green alternative to the appalling transport system and the choked roads...


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  • #462
    Geuze
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,276 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Pussyhands wrote: »
    That means 45k average right if it's a couple?

    Yes.

    That may be where timmyntc got the 45k figure.


  • #463
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,611 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Geuze wrote: »
    The CBI publish FTB data, see page 8:

    https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/household-credit-market-report/household-credit-market-report-2020.pdf?sfvrsn=5

    In Dublin, the average income is 90k, that is for all borrowers on the mortgage, combined.

    Average LTV is 80%.

    Average mortgage is 300k.

    Average deposit is 70-80k.

    "only" 80k deposit.

    Also that data is the mortgage approval, so is likely skewed in favour of those who actually can afford the mortgage.

    If there is data on mortgage applicants I would think it would be more telling.
    I'll have a look.


  • #464
    PropQueries
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    The Irish Times is reporting on their readers reactions to the Goverment’s latest plan to tackle the housing crisis.

    The first reaction makes perfect sense:

    "The fact that apartments and sites who already have planning permission are exempt for the changes means that any potential benefit will most likely not be felt in the next 2-3 years."

    It really doesn't look like to me that the Government truly believes there is a housing crisis. And I would think their viewpoint is spot on IMO

    Link to Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/housing-plan-this-will-not-be-forgotten-by-my-generation-at-the-ballot-box-1.4569359


  • #465
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Pussyhands wrote: »
    That means 45k average right if it's a couple?


    Thats the average combined salary of applicants.
    Not twice the average salary.


  • #466
    jill_valentine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,090 ✭✭✭jill_valentine


    Geuze wrote: »
    See page 8

    https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/household-credit-market-report/household-credit-market-report-2020.pdf?sfvrsn=5

    This is self selecting, no? People on anything under that won't apply and won't show up.

    This article has the national median at 38k -

    https://www.newstalk.com/news/single-people-on-typical-salaries-can-afford-homes-in-only-seven-counties-1191155#:~:text=Across%20Ireland%2C%20the%20estimated%20median,house%20price%20of%20%E2%82%AC260%2C000.


  • #467
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,611 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Geuze wrote: »
    Yes.

    That may be where timmyntc got the 45k figure.

    I took figure for average income (not just full time) in Dublin.

    No reason to believe a couple applying for mortgage will necessarily both be full time workers and earning the average full time wage - CBI report seems to back that up.


  • #468
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,611 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    jill_valentine wrote: »
    This is self selecting, no? People on anything under that won't apply and won't show up.

    This article has the national median at 38k -

    https://www.newstalk.com/news/single-people-on-typical-salaries-can-afford-homes-in-only-seven-counties-1191155#:~:text=Across%20Ireland%2C%20the%20estimated%20median,house%20price%20of%20%E2%82%AC260%2C000.

    Yes - when looking at affordability we should be using national average or Dublin average incomes. Not exclusively full time income, not income of mortgage approved couples.

    At the end of the day we want to know what affordability is like for the average person, not the average FT worker or average person who already got a mortgage approval.


  • #469
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,769 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    PropQueries wrote: »
    The Irish Times is reporting on their readers reactions to the Goverment’s latest plan to tackle the housing crisis.

    The first reaction makes perfect sense:

    "The fact that apartments and sites who already have planning permission are exempt for the changes means that any potential benefit will most likely not be felt in the next 2-3 years."

    It really doesn't look like to me that the Government truly believes there is a housing crisis. And I would think their viewpoint is spot on IMO

    Link to Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/housing-plan-this-will-not-be-forgotten-by-my-generation-at-the-ballot-box-1.4569359

    That is a ridiculous leap to make from that quote.

    If you can't find a legitimate reason to use an article to try support your opinions, don't use it


  • #470
    yagan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,689 ✭✭✭yagan


    L1011 wrote: »
    That is a ridiculous leap to make from that quote.

    If you can't find a legitimate reason to use an article to try support your opinions, don't use it

    Have you read the link?

    I agree that the government certainly isn't fully aware of how much they alienating younger voters, and the parents who can see their professionally qualified offspring being priced out of this market.


  • #471
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    yagan wrote: »
    Have you read the link?

    I agree that the government certainly isn't fully aware of how much they alienating younger voters, and the parents who can see their professionally qualified offspring being priced out of this market.


    And the middle income earners who might like to trade up or down at some point and who will end up paying for all the mistakes that the government make.


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  • #472
    jill_valentine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,090 ✭✭✭jill_valentine


    L1011 wrote: »
    That is a ridiculous leap to make from that quote.

    If you can't find a legitimate reason to use an article to try support your opinions, don't use it

    This seems like an unreasonably snippy reaction to an article and a bit of commentary that any of us could have made?


  • #473
    DataDude
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,567 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Browney7 wrote: »
    Apologies Datadude! Didn't mean to offend and you're right. Suppose my point is, a hospital consultant is still "fairly alright" and can get approval and can operate at most levels of the market but not in the expected echelons. Instead, you come down a few rungs and look at other places and fuel bidding wars and gentrification pricing out those below you (not the hospital consultants fault!).

    It was more to address the point of "if you don't like it, go back to college and upskill or pull yourself up by the bootstraps"


    Agree completely and I wasn't taking offence at all. More just adding to your sentiment that it all feels a bit dysfunctional.

    Consultant doctors don't have it bad by any means, but if they're held up as our upper echelon of high earners (and they are), but even they're being dragged down into the mire of struggling to compete for a 124sqm F BER Semi D - then what hope does Joe Public have. In a "I can feel it in my waters" kinda way, I just don't see how this can be the long term equilibrium of affordability.


  • #474
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,828 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    jill_valentine wrote: »
    This seems like an unreasonably snippy reaction to an article and a bit of commentary that any of us could have made?

    if it was the first, second, third, twentieth, thirtieth time that it had happened maybe i could agree, but props has form as long as your arm.


  • #475
    Cyrus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,828 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    DataDude wrote: »
    Agree completely and I wasn't taking offence at all. More just adding to your sentiment that it all feels a bit dysfunctional.

    Consultant doctors don't have it bad by any means, but if they're held up as our upper echelon of high earners (and they are), but even they're being dragged down into the mire of struggling to compete for a 124sqm F BER Semi D - then what hope does Joe Public have. In a "I can feel it in my waters" kinda way, I just don't see how this can be the long term equilibrium of affordability.

    Dont most (or maybe its just some) earn as much again in private practice?

    although id agree it doesnt feel right that a medical consultant is competing for that kind of property.

    That said there is a new world order out there, plenty of people work in areas that didnt exist 40 years ago and earn a lot more than consultants do and they are the ones driving the prices at the higher end.


  • #476
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,769 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    jill_valentine wrote: »
    This seems like an unreasonably snippy reaction to an article and a bit of commentary that any of us could have made?

    The user in question repeatedly tries to make "commentary" out of what are just their own opinions, not backed up by the article they are linking to.


  • #477
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,611 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    L1011 wrote: »
    The user in question repeatedly tries to make "commentary" out of what are just their own opinions, not backed up by the article they are linking to.

    The post is clearly opinion though:
    The user in question wrote:
    It really doesn't look like to me that the Government truly believes there is a housing crisis. And I would think their viewpoint is spot on IMO

    And to be honest, you only have to look at the governments track record up to this point to think that they dont see it as a housing crisis. After all, until the story about the estate in Maynooth broke (& the ensuing public outrage) the govt had no plans to stop institutional buyers.

    And theres the strange comments like the below

    https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1394912203858452480


  • #478
    DataDude
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,567 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Cyrus wrote: »
    Dont most (or maybe its just some) earn as much again in private practice?

    although id agree it doesnt feel right that a medical consultant is competing for that kind of property.

    That said there is a new world order out there, plenty of people work in areas that didnt exist 40 years ago and earn a lot more than consultants do and they are the ones driving the prices at the higher end.

    The unlimited money from private practice isn't as free-flowing as it once was. There's still a great number earning 7 figures in private practice and the public salary is fairly meaningless. But they are usually much older. Type B and C contracts which allow the private work are harder to come by I understand and there's a massive push to eradicate them altogether with Sláintecare. I know several on the path to consultancy and they are quite pessimistic that the Georgian in Ranleagh, that they see their predecessors with, will ever be a reality for them.

    I take your point on other professions earning more these days, but no matter which way you slice it €200k is a good income. And I know I've said it oodles of time on here but I just can't help but feel there is way way more houses that are nice as the one I linked than there are €200k+ incomes.


  • #479
    riclad
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    This is a trend in all western countrys, house prices are rising in the last year.i think the trend will mean be impossible for most single people to buy a house ,they will buy a small 1 bed apartment or else buy outside citys and commute to work.
    If more people work from home they will need a house with space to use as a home office ,people from the tech sector tend to have incomes over 50k.
    theres a small no of house,s for sale so there will be more potential bidders who want to buy each house.


  • #480
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,769 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    timmyntc wrote: »
    The post is clearly opinion though:

    Except its citing an article to "prove" it, when it doesn't. If the false cite wasn't there the post wouldn't be a problem. Anyway, this is off-topic.


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  • #481
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    How long was the maynooth housing estate on the market?
    Some homes had been bought buy individuals before this REIT bought yes?


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