Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings

User1998 · 18-05-2021 08:46PM

Are we supposed to jump in the air with joy that retail and personal services are finally allowed to open?

PTH2009 · 18-05-2021 08:49PM

User1998 wrote: »

Are we supposed to jump in the air with joy that retail and personal services are finally allowed to open?

The Government certainly think we are

charlie14 · 18-05-2021 08:53PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Who said anyone had easy answers?

This was always going to be a difficult virus to cope with...not surprisingly experts in the field have different opinions on what the best course of action is!!

Are you ever going to get around to making a formidable argument to support the hypothesis that hard lock downs are actually worth it?

That Barrington thing certainly had a lot of seemingly easy answers when it came to herd immunity did it not ?
I haven`t heard those of Ionaniddis, but as he was attempting to sell the same snake oil I doubt there is much difference.
I have already posted the figures comparing Florida to California and Texas to California. California come out best when compared to both.

Florida does not have the highest percentage in the U.S. of those aged 65 and over. Maine has at 20.6% and has had 596 Covid deaths per million compared to Florida with 1,680. Over 3 times greater.

In our own neck of the woods, I have posted the figures on Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden where there is little or no difference in the percentage of the population aged 65 years and over, yet Swedish deaths are 5.45 greater.
Something you completely ignored...... and yet still ask the highlighted.

Beyond bizarre.

hynesie08 · 18-05-2021 08:53PM

User1998 wrote: »

Are we supposed to jump in the air with joy that retail and personal services are finally allowed to open?

Are we supposed to be happy that the vaccine rollout has been so successful that normality is returning?

Probably.

Degag · 18-05-2021 08:54PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Is beyond parody at this stage

It's crazy isn't it? And these ilk will commonly throw around the term "Pro Lockdowners" or the like as an insult.

Well any "Pro Lockdowner" i've seen or heard is genuinely looking forward and are excited by the easing of restrictions.

While the rest repeatedly try to find doom and gloom so that they can complain about something on the internet!

CalamariFritti · 18-05-2021 08:56PM

gozunda wrote: »

Bending the truth?. Restrictions in Florida first started to be rolled back in May 2020 - followed by their removal in Sept. This is what happened regarding infection rates following those two key dates

The healthcare services were pushed to the hilt to cope with the subsequent rise in the rate of infection. A rate of infection that didn't see a decline unti vaccination started to take effect in January.

The reason Florida is important is because it does indeed demonstrates that lock downs / restrictions appear to have a very significant effect on outcomes.

Play silly games like DeSantis ("The Governor") and see rapidly rising rates of infection and deaths.

Lucky for him vaccination came along when it did or there likly would not have been such a nice "outcome".

But hey Florida!

Anyone swallowing the nonsense of Florida as some type of poster child would want to take a look at themselves!!!

Only that all the lockdown countries had the exact same or similar curves. Only for that lockdown worked really great.

charlie14 · 18-05-2021 09:04PM

MikeSoys wrote: »

Hi I can't find the thread but when will 40 yesr old be able to get the vax? , it was on radio this week or next can't confirm though

The thread you need is Vaccine Megathread. Someone there will be able to help you with this

Silentcorner · 18-05-2021 09:08PM

charlie14 wrote: »

Florida does not have the highest percentage in the U.S. of those aged 65 and over. Maine has at 20.6% and has had 596 Covid deaths per million compared to Florida with 1,680. Over 3 times greater.

I never said Florida had the highest percentage of those over 65, it does however have a significant over 65 population with a total population of over 20 million, Maine has a population of 1.3 million, bit of a difference...so I'll appreciate it if you don't put words in my mouth.

I do believe the Governor did accept he initially made a mistake with the care homes, to be fair. Not the only Governor or Country for that matter that made that same error....Sweden did also if I recall.

You compared Texas with California, all well and good, but Texas just dropped their restrictions two months ago...so not exactly an honest comparison.

I'm going by the figures you are providing by the way, and the strongest case you can make for hard lock downs is a death case number of 2,400 lives out of death case total of 100,000 between both states....not exactly a ringing endorsement now is it?

gozunda · 18-05-2021 09:24PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Only that all the lockdown countries had the exact same or similar curves. Only for that lockdown worked really great.

Do they? Really?

But first tell me how does any of that change things re. the claim made by the OP - that everything was more or less grand in Florida once de governor got rid of all the nasty restrictions?

But maybe more importantly the graphs don't look all the same.

Ireland for example had no massive spike in the middle of the summer. And that with our summers being crap. Then there was the long and dramatic rise of infections in Florida all the way from October to Late January when vaccinations stated to kick in.

Graph for Ireland shows 2 spikes - one at the beginning when we were dealing with a rapid rise in infections, then when schools returned and the much bigger one in January following restrictions / lockdown being temporarily eased so people could have a "meaningful Christmas"

But no they are not the exact same or even similar

Banana Republic 1 · 18-05-2021 09:44PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

So we're basically locking down again come Autumn/Winter ?

Christ better make the use of our release this summer then

Even Boris Johnson is expecting to lock down again around September

Silentcorner · 18-05-2021 09:48PM

gozunda wrote: »

Ireland for example had no massive spike in the middle of the summer which Florida had. And that with our summers being crap compared to Florida. Then there was the long and dramatic rise of infections in Florida all the way from October to Late January when vaccinations stated to kick in.

Few things here...

The virus does not behave in any comparable way between Ireland and Florida...you can't compare Florida to New York even in terms of how the virus behaves. I'd imagine there is a much different normal flu season in both States.

Florida and California are the two most comparable States. Population (California is 2nd most populous state, Florida is 3rd most populous state), Density (Florida is more dense) , Climate.

There are a myriad of other factors like age, health, vit d levels (all which will vary region to region) and probably another few I am unaware of...it's what makes comparisons very difficult.

I don't know if you are referring to me but you have said this twice now, no one is suggesting Florida "performed" any differently in regards to cases and deaths.....they performed about average, comparing nationally as best you can...but the place is booming and they are living as normal an existence as you can...unlike us.

The also had two very opposing levels of restrictions.

And according to Charlie, only 2,400 extra deaths (out of 100,000 deaths between both States)...

ISOP · 18-05-2021 09:49PM

Banana Republic 1 wrote: »

Even Boris Johnson is expecting to lock down again around September

No he is not. Where did you see that?

Bit cynical · 18-05-2021 10:35PM

Degag wrote: »

It's crazy isn't it? And these ilk will commonly throw around the term "Pro Lockdowners" or the like as an insult.

Well any "Pro Lockdowner" i've seen or heard is genuinely looking forward and are excited by the easing of restrictions.

While the rest repeatedly try to find doom and gloom so that they can complain about something on the internet!

It is really more a deference towards authority than a pro lockdown position.

gozunda · 18-05-2021 10:41PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Few things here...the virus does not behave in any comparable way between Ireland and Florida...you can't compare Florida to New York even in terms of how the virus behaves. I'd imagine there is a much different normal flu season in both States.Florida and California are the two most comparable States. Population (California is 2nd most populous state, Florida is 3rd most populous state), Density (Florida is more dense) , Climate.There are a myriad of other factors like age, health, vit d levels (all which will vary region to region) and probably another few I am unaware of...it's what makes comparisons very difficult. I don't know if you are referring to me but you have said this twice now, no one is suggesting Florida "performed" any differently in regards to cases and deaths.....they performed about average, comparing nationally as best you can...but the place is booming and they are living as normal an existence as you can...unlike us.The also had two very opposing levels of restrictions.And according to Charlie, only 2,400 extra deaths (out of 100,000 deaths between both States)...

So now an expert virologist? Interesting.

But nooe. Simply refuting the fact the graphs of all countries as claimed by the previous poster were all more less the same regardless. They're not. So I guess at least there you're now in agreement.

I could have used Botswana- but I'm fairly familiar with here as an example so used that. Though tbf the old "comparison" thing seems go be your own bugbear for some odd reason.

Imho Florida is a ****eshow when it comes to Covid and they're still moping up the damage per the antics of the Governor.

Now can we now drop this "but Florida" rolllocks?

charlie14 · 18-05-2021 11:04PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

I never said Florida had the highest percentage of those over 65, it does however have a significant over 65 population with a total population of over 20 million, Maine has a population of 1.3 million, bit of a difference...so I'll appreciate it if you don't put words in my mouth.

I do believe the Governor did accept he initially made a mistake with the care homes, to be fair. Not the only Governor or Country for that matter that made that same error....Sweden did also if I recall.

You compared Texas with California, all well and good, but Texas just dropped their restrictions two months ago...so not exactly an honest comparison.

I'm going by the figures you are providing by the way, and the strongest case you can make for hard lock downs is a death case number of 2,400 lives out of death case total of 100,000 between both states....not exactly a ringing endorsement now is it?

I am not putting words in your mouth.
Nor are you going by the figures I gave you. In fact your reply shortened my post to not show them.

You appear to have picked up both the Florida and Ionaniddis mathematics affliction. Maine has a greater percentage of those aged 65 and over.
The size of each State`s population doesn`t matter. What does is thar Maine with a higher percentage of those most at risk to this virus, has Covid deaths of 596 per million whereas Florida has covid deaths over 3 times greater of 1,680.
Nothing to do with "words in your mouth", it`s statistics.

The 2,400 is not a statistic. It`s 2,400 deaths which you glibbly and quite disgustingly dismiss as being a mere nothing.

The figures I provided you on 4 next door neighbouring countries where 3 used lockdown, and one played around with natural herd immunity until October........ that you have conveniently ignored twice in succession........ show a 545% difference in Covid deaths between the 3 that used lockdown and the one that attempted the natural herd immunity route.

ceadaoin. · 18-05-2021 11:12PM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

And no doubt then they'll be extended till the Spring, "just in case..." :rolleyes:

Relevant article.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/17/europe/european-union-rule-of-law-covid-intl-cmd/index.html

FintanMcluskey · 18-05-2021 11:15PM

charlie14 wrote: »

I am not putting words in your mouth.
Nor are you going by the figures I gave you. In fact your reply shortened my post to not show them.

You appear to have picked up both the Florida and Ionaniddis mathematics affliction. Maine has a greater percentage of those aged 65 and over.
The base size of each State`s numbers in that cohort doesn`t matter. What does is thar Maine with a higher percentage of those most at risk to this virus has Covid deaths of 596 per million whereas Florida has covid deaths over 3 times greater of 1,680.
Nothing to do with "words in your mouth", it`s statistics.

The 2,400 is not a statistic. It`s 2,400 deaths which you glibbly and quite disgustingly dismiss as being a mere nothing.

The figures I povided you on 4 next door neighbouring countries where 3 used lockdown, and one played around with natural herd immunity until October........ that you have conveniently ignored twice in succession........ show a 545% difference in Covid deaths between the 3 that used lockdown and the one that attempted the natural herd immunity route.

Brilliant

The actual numbers are irrelevant, let’s mix mash percentages with complete population demographics

I, and about 10 others over the past year had this argument with you and you actually win with sheer persistence.

Admirable in a way

FintanMcluskey · 18-05-2021 11:19PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Relevant article.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/17/europe/european-union-rule-of-law-covid-intl-cmd/index.html

No mention of the nation that had the globes longest lockdown and extended emergency powers until September

PTH2009 · 18-05-2021 11:25PM

Christ it's going to be a long 3 weeks til Outdoor Pubs reopen

Suppose the government want us to book hotels the week before so we can 'use the indoor facilities'

18-05-2021 11:25PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

Im not the only one

It's quite scary and unsettling how fast they can close stuff and implement lockdowns. The panic button could be hit when a natural rise in numbers after the summer and we go back into lockdown for Halloween and christmas 2021 to protect the hospitals

Why do you think there will be a rise in numbers big enough to cause another lockdown? Is it because of the efficacy of the vaccines?

18-05-2021 11:33PM

Arghus wrote: »

This thread:

Retail finally opens, actual relaxation of restrictions: barely gets a mention.

Proposal tabled to extend government powers that's entirely contingent on certain things that may or may not happen in the future - which aren't guaranteed - and hopefully will never have to be used: let's get worked up about that future possibility.

I believe they call that scaremongering.

Yes we are in a good place now. I understand the tendency to get panicked about every little tweet and piece of news because of fear and anxiety. In saying that it doesn't do us any good. It feels like our lives are returning yet nobody knows what the future holds.

There was someone over on the main thread who posted about the potential for the Indian variant to cause a surge, how we will be in and out of lockdowns. I don't have the strength of mind to consider that kind of stuff at all.

None of us know what way this will pan out but some will speculate negatively and others positively.

charlie14 · 18-05-2021 11:47PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Brilliant

The actual numbers are irrelevant, let’s mix mash percentages with complete population demographics

I, and about 10 others over the past year had this argument with you and you actually win with sheer persistence.

Admirable in a way

So is this the latest anti lockdown dirge. We will make comparisons and claims, but no statistics are allowed to challenge them ?
In fact how can you discuss demographics or even express them without using percentages.

If I won anything over the past year Fintan it was nothing to do with persisistence. It was due to facts

Widdensushi · 18-05-2021 11:50PM

Banana Republic 1 wrote: »

Even Boris Johnson is expecting to lock down again around September

Hardly, just trying to get people to stay on their guard.

Bit cynical · 19-05-2021 12:01AM

Despite the recent relaxations, we're still at the top of Oxford University's stringency index for the EU and if you take the average over the last six months we're also at the top overall over that period. Only a few countries in the world have a higher average index over the six months: Venuzuela, Lebanon, Honduras. Note that countries with regional restrictions are counted the same as national restrictions.

One of the reasons some of us think things are opening up quite fast now is due to the fact that so much has been shut down for so long that the comparatively minor easing recently is seen as significant even when it is not.

Play around with the interactive chart here.

Graham · 19-05-2021 12:32AM

Bit cynical wrote: »

One of the reasons some of us think things are opening up quite fast now is due to the fact that so much has been shut down for so long that the comparatively minor easing recently is seen as significant even when it is not.

I don't think we're opening up 'quite fast'.

I do think the return of schools, construction, retail, inter-county travel and the progress being made with vaccinations is fairly significant.

I suppose an interactive chart is handy if you want to convince yourself otherwise.

Bit cynical · 19-05-2021 12:41AM

Graham wrote: »

I don't think we're opening up 'quite fast'.

I do think the return of schools, construction, retail, inter-county travel is and the progress being made with vaccinations is fairly significant.

I suppose an interactive chart is handy if you want to convince yourself otherwise.

However we're still a fairly restricted country by EU standards and even by world standards so there's certainly a lot of room for further relaxation.

19-05-2021 12:41AM

Doom porn.

Ha Long Bay · 19-05-2021 12:59AM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Despite the recent relaxations, we're still at the top of Oxford University's stringency index for the EU and if you take the average over the last six months we're also at the top overall over that period. Only a few countries in the world have a higher average index over the six months: Venuzuela, Lebanon, Honduras. Note that countries with regional restrictions are counted the same as national restrictions.

One of the reasons some of us think things are opening up quite fast now is due to the fact that so much has been shut down for so long that the comparatively minor easing recently is seen as significant even when it is not.

Play around with the interactive chart here.

Would have to question what use that index is when France is rated below Ireland as of the the 18th May. A country where you cannot leave your house between 7pm and 6am without a permission slip and non essential retail closed.

Changing tomorrow curfew is extended to 9pm and non essential retail opening.

"On May 19, non-essential business will be allowed to reopen and the nightly curfew will be pushed back to 9pm local time."

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210429-covid-19-france-aims-to-relax-curfew-allow-outdoor-dining-and-reopen-cultural-venues-from-may-19

Graham · 19-05-2021 01:04AM

Bit cynical wrote: »

However we're still a fairly restricted country by EU standards and even by world standards so there's certainly a lot of room for further relaxation.

Yup, there certainly is.

That is the plan.

Bit cynical · 19-05-2021 01:17AM

Ha Long Bay wrote: »

Changing tomorrow curfew is extended to 9pm and non essential retail opening.

"On May 19, non-essential business will be allowed to reopen and the nightly curfew will be pushed back to 9pm local time.[/url]

Also, of course outdoor dining and drinking from today and in three weeks time indoor dining and drinking.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings