Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

Valhallapt · 14-05-2021 02:26PM

snotboogie wrote: »

Taking the 48k figure for Ireland mentioned by the HSE last night for the 12th as it hasn't officially been announced yet.

Country per capita Date Reported Ireland Days Behind
Malta 91 May 12th
Lithuania 46.5 May 13th 9
Germany 46 May 13th 9
Cyprus 45.5 May 12th 9
Spain 45 May 12th 7
Denmark 44 May 12th 6
Italy 43 May 13th 4
Austria 43 May 13th 4
Belgium 43 May 13th 3
Estonia 43 May 13th 4
Portugal 42 May 13th 3
Luxembourg 41 May 11th 3
Finland 41 May 13th 1
France 41 May 12th 2
Netherlands 40 May 13th 0
Poland 40 May 13th 0
Ireland 39.5 May 12th 0
Sweden 39 May 12th -1
Greece 39 May 13th -2
Slovenia 38 May 13th -3
Czech Rep 37.5 May 13th -4
Slovakia 35 May 12th -6
Romania 33 May 12th -9
Croatia 31 May 12th -12
Latvia 24.5 May 13th -22
Bulgaria 15.5 May 13th -35

Feels like we’re slipping yet further again. Have they HSE given a reason why we are continually falling behind ?

snotboogie · 14-05-2021 02:26PM

Evil_g wrote: »

I have no idea how you get these figures. You must be using a lower vaccination rate than our .78. We're seven days behind Germany. Five behind Denmark. We're level with Ireland.

I'm taking 0.7 which matches the HSE projections of 250k vaccine sper week. Even if you take 0.78 Germany would be 7.8 days ahead of us. So rounded up to 8. Germany are also vaccinating at a rate of 0.9. I answered this yesterday, it's an illustration to give people an idea of the difference. It's not exact beacuase I cannot accurately predict how many vaccines Ireland or the other countries will complete in the future. I only included it because people were misreprenting the numbers and saying Ireland were merely "hours behind" Germany. Which of course has turned out to be BS

Evil_g · 14-05-2021 02:39PM

snotboogie wrote: »

I'm taking 0.7 which matches the HSE projections of 250k vaccine sper week. Even if you take 0.78 Germany would be 7.8 days ahead of us. So rounded up to 8. Germany are also vaccinating at a rate of 0.9. I answered this yesterday, it's an illustration to give people an idea of the difference. It's not exact beacuase I cannot accurately predict how many vaccines Ireland or the other countries will complete in the future. I only included it because people were misreprenting the numbers and saying Ireland were merely "hours behind" Germany. Which of course has turned out to be BS

The precise vaccination rate is very easy to calculate and is available here

You don't need to predict future vaccines to calculate how far behind we are at any point in time.

If Germany are reporting a day ahead of us that day should be deducted from the 7.8 days.

Maybe all these people saying we're only hours behind Germany bother you (can't say I've seen that myself), but you're the one misrepresenting figures at the moment.

RavenBea17b · 14-05-2021 02:41PM

Another piece of good news for Italy.

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1392896775942443013

snotboogie · 14-05-2021 02:42PM

Valhallapt wrote: »

Feels like we’re slipping yet further again. Have they HSE given a reason why we are continually falling behind ?

Nobody is asking. They trumpeted that we were the best in Europe back in March when supplies were low for everyone and it has just been accepted that it's still true. Haven't heard one media outlet bring up that we have the slowest rollout in Western Europe. Sweden and The Netherlands are patchy in their rollout but we have all the advantages, small population, small geography and the youngest population in Europe. Its inexcusable that we are languishing around 20th place well over a week behind the top performers in Europe.

plodder · 14-05-2021 02:47PM

Sky King wrote: »

The issue is AZ starts to rapidly lose its efficacy starting at 16 weeks.

Where did you get this information?

Wondering that too. What I found is this:

https://www2.hse.ie/screening-and-vaccinations/covid-19-vaccine/astrazeneca/immunity/

"Research so far shows that protection after the 1st dose lasts for at least 16 weeks."

which makes the statement above look very misleading.

eoinbn · 14-05-2021 02:50PM

Valhallapt wrote: »

Feels like we’re slipping yet further again. Have they HSE given a reason why we are continually falling behind ?

Do we have enough low dead-volume needles to extract the 6th dose from the Pfizer vials?
Before the latest delivery of 182k we had were suppose to have received 1521k but only had admin ~1250k. Those numbers align with only extracting 6 doses from a small number of vials.
Do we have confirmation that we have 250k Pfizer in storage or is it just based on delivered Vs admin?

ironictoaster · 14-05-2021 02:54PM

ironictoaster wrote: »

Cohort 7 here (30).

Still waiting to hear back from GP about any update in regards to my vaccine. Online portal would have been ideal.

Update kinda.

I ended getting through to my GP receptionist. I am registered in cohort 7 and should have an appointment in the next week or two. She didn't really instill confidence. Felt like I was been fobbed off tbh!

Rang the consultant receptionist. They are only vaccinating patients on a specific medication which I don't take.

Time to play the waiting game!

ACitizenErased · 14-05-2021 02:57PM

NPHET have received the NIAC advice.

zebastein · 14-05-2021 02:58PM

Valhallapt wrote: »

Feels like we’re slipping yet further again. Have they HSE given a reason why we are continually falling behind ?

There is a lot of rounding in here.
France 41 vs. Ireland 39.5 in your table.

Our world in data gives France 40.64 on the 12th May
Ireland was at 38.94, if you add 48k doses, you are at 39.92 per capita for Ireland on the 12th May.
So 0.72 difference between France and Ireland compared to 1.5 in your table. Less than a day versus 2 days in your table.

Evil_g · 14-05-2021 03:01PM

snotboogie wrote: »

Nobody is asking. They trumpeted that we were the best in Europe back in March when supplies were low for everyone and it has just been accepted that it's still true. Haven't heard one media outlet bring up that we have the slowest rollout in Western Europe. Sweden and The Netherlands are patchy in their rollout but we have all the advantages, small population, small geography and the youngest population in Europe. Its inexcusable that we are languishing around 20th place well over a week behind the top performers in Europe.

ddarcy · 14-05-2021 03:02PM

Sky King wrote: »

Where did you get this information?

Their phase I/II clinical trials showed this. Originally it was developed as a one shot solution. Although they are small in number, so we could see, as they didn’t test it more thoroughly, one dose may be good enough. The early phase trial data indicated the two doses regime was the way to go though.

Also common sense as after one dose it is 72 % effective, 2 doses is 76% effective. If it maintained Its efficacy there is no point with the second dose and goes against all medical practices (eg do no harm, don’t do something that not needed).

revelman · 14-05-2021 03:03PM

ddarcy wrote: »

They’re phase I/II clinical trials showed this. Although the are small in number, so we could see, as they didn’t test it more thoroughly once dose may be good enough. The early phase trial data indicated the two doses regime was the way to go through.

Also common sense as after one dose it is 72 % effective, 2 doses is 76% effective. If it maintained I’d efficacy there is no point with the second dose and goes against all medical practices (eg do no harm, don’t do something that not needed).

Real world data is showing nearly 90% efficacy after just one dose. There is a massive study in South Korea with millions of people showing this. I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on trial data.

SusanC10 · 14-05-2021 03:06PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

NPHET have received the NIAC advice.

When will the general public be enlightened ?

Russman · 14-05-2021 03:06PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

NPHET have received the NIAC advice.

Feels like that should be followed by a drum roll

GeorgeBailey · 14-05-2021 03:08PM

SusanC10 wrote: »

When will the general public be enlightened ?

It's all very x-factor. "We've received the advice from NIAC. And that advice is............ we'll let you know after the break"

josip · 14-05-2021 03:08PM

snotboogie wrote: »

t but we have all the advantages, small population, small geography and the youngest population in Europe.

How are small population and youngest population in Europe an advantage for a vaccine rollout?
How is small geography an advantage when you have small population?

snotboogie · 14-05-2021 03:09PM

zebastein wrote: »

There is a lot of rounding in here.
France 41 vs. Ireland 39.5 in your table.

Our world in data gives France 40.64 on the 12th May
Ireland was at 38.94, if you add 48k doses, you are at 39.92 per capita for Ireland on the 12th May.
So 0.72 difference between France and Ireland compared to 1.5 in your table. Less than a day versus 2 days in your table.

Ireland was at 1.923 million doses on the 11th or 38.63.

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1392802309005058048?s=19

+48k is 1.971 million or 39.6. Its correct to round Ireland down to 39.5.

Calling it a front loaded table is misleading.

keno-daytrader · 14-05-2021 03:09PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

NPHET have received the NIAC advice.

NIAC have to write to NPHET, then NPHET have to write to the minister for Health, Then the minister brings it to cabinet/govt. God forbid that they do this in emails, as it is 2021 and we are living in a pandemic.

What could they possibly have been doing for 2 weeks to give this so called advice?

snotboogie · 14-05-2021 03:10PM

josip wrote: »

How are small population and youngest population in Europe an advantage for a vaccine rollout?

How is small geography an advantage when you have small population?

Because you have less people to vaccinate

ddarcy · 14-05-2021 03:12PM

revelman wrote: »

Real world data is showing nearly 90% efficacy after just one dose. There is a massive study in South Korea with millions of people showing this. I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on trial data.

Don’t get me wrong, it looks like all approved vaccines in Europe could be a one dose solution. But the early clinical trials said otherwise. We’ll see over time if this plays out or not.

In terms of opening things up, this would be far faster. Plus the rollout to third world countries would be faster as well in hopes of stopping variants etc. It would be great if we could say currently 2 million were fully vaccinated right now and by the end of next month everyone would have that possibility (could even be sooner if they went down the one shot route).

snotboogie · 14-05-2021 03:12PM

Evil_g wrote: »

That's a 7 day average for the last week. Ireland in 18th place for total vaccinated per capita.

pc7 · 14-05-2021 03:14PM

keno-daytrader wrote: »

NIAC have to write to NPHET, then NPHET have to write to the minister for Health, Then the minister brings it to cabinet/govt. God forbid that they do this in emails, as it is 2021 and we are living in a pandemic.

What could they possibly have been doing for 2 weeks to give this so called advice?

I'm sure it'll be leaked soon

josip · 14-05-2021 03:14PM

snotboogie wrote: »

Because you have less people to vaccinate

And you have fewer people with which to do it.

josip · 14-05-2021 03:16PM

pc7 wrote: »

I'm sure it'll be leaked soon

It wasn't leaked from NPHET (CMO (Tony)) the last time.

It will only get leaked when it gets to Govt.

Gile_na_gile · 14-05-2021 03:17PM

pc7 wrote: »

I'm sure it'll be leaked soon

By someone doing God's work...
They'll also have to send it to Paul Reid via WhatsApp as the HSE email servers are down.

ACitizenErased · 14-05-2021 03:18PM

keno-daytrader wrote: »

NIAC have to write to NPHET, then NPHET have to write to the minister for Health, Then the minister brings it to cabinet/govt. God forbid that they do this in emails, as it is 2021 and we are living in a pandemic.

What could they possibly have been doing for 2 weeks to give this so called advice?

Emails are down due to the hack, FWIW.

snotboogie · 14-05-2021 03:18PM

josip wrote: »

And you have fewer people with which to do it.

It's hardly a one to one. Economies of scale work in reverse. It's easier for Malta to vaccinate their population than it is for China to vaccinate theirs. Similarly it should be easier for Ireland to vaccinate 5 million people than for Germany to vaccinate 85 million.

pc7 · 14-05-2021 03:22PM

Do we know how many days in advance MVC give out appointments? Are they all booked say for the next 3 days, do we have a bit of float in the system with things down?

Evil_g · 14-05-2021 03:23PM

snotboogie wrote: »

That's a 7 day average for the last week. Ireland in 18th place for total vaccinated per capita.

I was just trying to help you answer why you haven't heard one media outlet bring up that we have the slowest rollout in Western Europe.

It's because they would look like idiots.

Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

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