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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

  • 14-05-2021 12:27pm
    #1
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Continued from here



    Mod Warning

    This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
    * Immigration
    * Refugees
    * Welfare recipients
    * Welfare rates
    * General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
    * General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
    * How wonderful Country X is to buy in

    Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory/vacancy figures has been done to death please take that topic to a new thread.

    Threadbanned Posters

    gradius
    derekgine3
    PropQueries
    Revolution 1917
    Wanderer78
    pancratic
    IWW2900 / ApeEvolved / Murph3000
    realitykeeper
    ittakestwo
    Post edited by L1011 on
    Tagged:


«134567…496

Comments

  • #2
    DellyBelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,143 ✭✭✭DellyBelly


    Crash on the way.....


  • #3
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,225 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    DellyBelly wrote: »
    Crash on the way.....




    You'll be right eventually.


    Prediction is no good without a timeframe.


  • #4
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,968 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    DellyBelly wrote: »
    Crash on the way.....

    We might as well start where the trend in these threads have been for the last 5-6 years. Sooner or later the people propagating it will be right and able to say I told you so

    Slava Ukrainii



  • #5
    Cal4567
    Registered Users Posts: 625 ✭✭✭Cal4567


    According to the SBP today:

    “Nine of the country’s 31 local authorities have no sites listed on their vacant site register and six county councils have not valued the sites on their register and so cannot collect the vacant site levy.”

    I think I’ve driven through every county in Ireland at some stage over the past few years and for 9 local authorities to have no sites at all on their register is impossible.

    Link to SBP article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/a...-levy-2d0c4678

    4 years after they were supposed to set these up. All the focus has been on these funds, but our very inept public service 'professionals' are as much of a problem. Some commentators see them as part of the solution. Don't make me laugh.

    The SBS seems to have cottoned onto the fact we are a mess. We're getting this stuff drip fed to us. Amusing if it wasn't so serious.


  • #6
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,110 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    DellyBelly wrote: »
    Crash on the way.....

    What date does it kick off? Asking for a friend.


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  • #7
    yagan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,542 ✭✭✭yagan


    It just occurred to me that in all the talk about the property market at the moment I have not heard anyone in the public sphere use the phrase "getting on the property ladder". The housing ministers "help to buy unaffordable homes" isn't being swallowed by the public either.


  • #8
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Cal4567 wrote: »
    According to the SBP today:

    “Nine of the country’s 31 local authorities have no sites listed on their vacant site register and six county councils have not valued the sites on their register and so cannot collect the vacant site levy.”

    I think I’ve driven through every county in Ireland at some stage over the past few years and for 9 local authorities to have no sites at all on their register is impossible.

    Link to SBP article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/a...-levy-2d0c4678

    4 years after they were supposed to set these up. All the focus has been on these funds, but our very inept public service 'professionals' are as much of a problem. Some commentators see them as part of the solution. Don't make me laugh.

    The SBS seems to have cottoned onto the fact we are a mess. We're getting this stuff drip fed to us. Amusing if it wasn't so serious.

    Yep, doesn’t matter what the policy is if the people charged with implementing it are incompetent and not accountable. We have weak management and TRADE UNIONS to thank for that. I find it funny that many of the solutions left leaning parties propose to resolve the housing crisis do not include reform of the public sector, which will be key to any progress being made. I wonder why?


  • #9
    tobsey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,275 ✭✭✭tobsey


    https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-21-phelan-avenue-royal-canal-park-ashtown-dublin-15/3224560

    350k brand new in 2016. This is a 55% increase in that time. That's double what the statistics say. They may get it but it's a massive increase. How were these so cheap new?


  • #10
    Roberto_gas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,206 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    DellyBelly wrote: »
    Crash on the way.....

    This has some merit ! Last time crash came from global phenomenon and this time it will as well....some signs already visible

    Current value of money people have has diluted a lot which means the property value although high are not aligned to its intrinsic value ! People have made lot of easy money whether in crypto/stocks/gold etc.

    You don't want to be on the wrong side buying high value stuff with low value money you earned with all the hard work ! Remember you are competing with investment funds who made easy money from above list !

    Irrespective, its not ideal situation to wait for a crash for many....If you are paying low rent, living with small compromises wait for couple of years and you would get good opportunities soon !

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/13/business/global-real-estate-prices/index.html


  • #11
    Roberto_gas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,206 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    tobsey wrote: »
    https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-21-phelan-avenue-royal-canal-park-ashtown-dublin-15/3224560

    350k brand new in 2016. This is a 55% increase in that time. That's double what the statistics say. They may get it but it's a massive increase. How were these so cheap new?

    Cost of building has increased with commodities prices sky rocketing ! However i get your point...this is just not sustainable !


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  • #12
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,115 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Roberto_gas wrote: »
    Cost of building has increased with commodities prices sky rocketing ! However i get your point...this is just not sustainable !

    Cost of building has not increased anywhere near that much!


  • #13
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Since it's the start of a new thread and a crash has been mentioned;

    Rents have surpassed Celtic Tiger levels and house prices are not far off what they were in the Celtic Tiger. While mortgage borrowing limits have been imposed on people, salaries have not increased since the Celtic Tiger years

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/416212/average-annual-wages-ireland-y-on-y-in-euros/

    I don't know of anyone who thinks the Celtic Tiger market was anything but ridiculously overpriced and grossly inflated due to the level of cheap and easy money flowing into it. Therefore, to think the current situation is anything but a grossly unsustainable situation would mean you think the Celtic Tiger market was a good level.

    The only things I wonder are what will be the straw that breaks the camel's back, when will it happen and who will ultimately lose the most from the growth of the last few years.


  • #14
    howamidifferent
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭howamidifferent


    Amadan Dubh wrote: »
    d who will ultimately lose the most from the growth of the last few years.

    Anyone who takes out a mortgage to buy one of the €450k "affordable" homes will find themselves in deep doodoo in a few years once the market inevitably crashes. As said, its completely unsustainable.


  • #15
    derekgine3
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 52 ✭✭derekgine3


    Roberto_gas wrote: »
    This has some merit ! Last time crash came from global phenomenon and this time it will as well....some signs already visible

    Current value of money people have has diluted a lot which means the property value although high are not aligned to its intrinsic value ! People have made lot of easy money whether in crypto/stocks/gold etc.

    You don't want to be on the wrong side buying high value stuff with low value money you earned with all the hard work ! Remember you are competing with investment funds who made easy money from above list !

    Irrespective, its not ideal situation to wait for a crash for many....If you are paying low rent, living with small compromises wait for couple of years and you would get good opportunities soon !

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/13/business/global-real-estate-prices/index.html


    Agreed, a huge crash will likely arrive in around 4-5 years. If people are not paying high rent they should park their hard earned savings in cash and some safe haven stocks and be ready to pounce.


    This insanity won't last forever and the biggest correction in history is coming, however, short term it does not look good.


  • #16
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    howamidifferent wrote: »
    Anyone who takes out a mortgage to buy one of the €450k "affordable" homes will find themselves in deep doodoo in a few years once the market inevitably crashes. As said, its completely unsustainable.

    "in a few years" but if those prices dropped 30% in 3 years for example, you'd have paid off a decent chunk of that 30% and would barely be in negative equity. These homes wouldn't have been bought with much leverage (3.5 times household earnings + 10% deposit). I don't think these mortgage holders are the ones with that much to lose if I'm being honest. The €1m+ properties which were taken out with sizeable mortgages potentially are the ones to lose out a lot more.


  • #17
    Roberto_gas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,206 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    derekgine3 wrote: »
    Agreed, a huge crash will likely arrive in around 4-5 years. If people are not paying high rent they should park their hard earned savings in cash and some safe haven stocks and be ready to pounce.


    This insanity won't last forever and the biggest correction in history is coming, however, short term it does not look good.

    You will see this euphoria continue...atleast for 1-2 years until something gives at global stage resulting in cascading effect across the globe...

    Remember last time's unchecked lending has been replaced by pandemic savings by people making them pay more deposit and little bit less mortgage...it still does not solve inability to pay in adverse conditions !


  • #18
    Roberto_gas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,206 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    timmyntc wrote: »
    Cost of building has not increased anywhere near that much!

    true but that plays a part along side insane demand, lack of supply and huge savings by people !


  • #19
    derekgine3
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 52 ✭✭derekgine3


    Roberto_gas wrote: »
    You will see this euphoria continue...atleast for 1-2 years until something gives at global stage resulting in cascading effect across the globe...

    Remember last time's unchecked lending has been replaced by pandemic savings by people making them pay more deposit and little bit less mortgage...it still does not solve inability to pay in adverse conditions !


    Absolutely, if i was to put money on it from a global perspective. We will enter into hyperinflation in 2022/2023, the governments will have a knee jerk reaction and jack up interest rates, which will be the catalyst for the crash.


    In Ireland, FFFG in a last ditch attempt to save themselves will start ramping up supply (too little too late). SF will come to power in a snap election or 2024 and will continue to ramp up supply. The above global crash will impact on people's income, confidence and ability to borrow, thus reducing demand when supply finally catches up or surpasses demand.


    Smart money is not getting into the market right now, only brainwashed/panic money (with the exception of those paying huge rent with a family to support and can't move home/house share). Smart money is actually getting out, they will sell now at near all time high and be able to pick up similar property within less than half a decade for probably 40-50% less.


  • #20
    Shedite27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,428 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    For anyone predicting a crash, do ye have any reasoning for it? Any idea what might cause it?

    I can't see a crash happening anytime soon when there's so many more people that want to buy homes than homes available. Last time out people were buying second homes so that caused the crash.

    I'm not predicting it happens, but the only potential threat I see at present is the reliance on Silicon Docks and the FAANG names in Ireland. If anything upset them, be it tax treaties or Data Protection rulings and they upped and moved, we'd be down quite a lot of people to buy houses.


  • #21
    derekgine3
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 52 ✭✭derekgine3


    tobsey wrote: »
    https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-21-phelan-avenue-royal-canal-park-ashtown-dublin-15/3224560

    350k brand new in 2016. This is a 55% increase in that time. That's double what the statistics say. They may get it but it's a massive increase. How were these so cheap new?


    Know the area well (we grew up in D7). It is very soulless, high social housing % and high service fees. 350k is too expensive for that, in a sane market.


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  • #22
    derekgine3
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 52 ✭✭derekgine3


    Shedite27 wrote: »
    For anyone predicting a crash, do ye have any reasoning for it? Any idea what might cause it?

    I can't see a crash happening anytime soon when there's so many more people that want to buy homes than homes available. Last time out people were buying second homes so that caused the crash.

    I'm not predicting it happens, but the only potential threat I see at present is the reliance on Silicon Docks and the FAANG names in Ireland. If anything upset them, be it tax treaties or Data Protection rulings and they upped and moved, we'd be down quite a lot of people to buy houses.


    See my post above.


  • #23
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    timmyntc wrote: »
    Cost of building has not increased anywhere near that much!

    I think that’s the new one that will be bandied around for a while.

    If the proposed affordable housing bill puts a max selling price of €225k on an affordable a-rated house in Co. Tipperary, all we have to do is work backwards to get to the real reasons why the same affordable housing bill believes the same affordable house in Dublin should cost €450k.

    If it’s not primarily materials, wages etc., it can only really be land costs. Therefore, the affordable housing bill is a direct government subsidy to some of the funds etc. who bought the same Dublin sites off the banks, NAMA etc. for a pittance (c. as low as €15k each in Cairn Homes case) just a few short years ago IMO

    And that subsidy has to start to be paid back in full by that ‘affordable’ home buyer in a few years.


  • #24
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Shedite27 wrote: »
    For anyone predicting a crash, do ye have any reasoning for it? Any idea what might cause it?

    I can't see a crash happening anytime soon when there's so many more people that want to buy homes than homes available. Last time out people were buying second homes so that caused the crash.

    I'm not predicting it happens, but the only potential threat I see at present is the reliance on Silicon Docks and the FAANG names in Ireland. If anything upset them, be it tax treaties or Data Protection rulings and they upped and moved, we'd be down quite a lot of people to buy houses.


    Little known fact :)

    Nobody can ever see a crash coming.
    They only guess and the ones who guessed right will tell you after how they predicted it.
    Do not believe these people unless they are rich beyond believe. Because thats what they would be if they could really predict things.


  • #25
    tobsey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,275 ✭✭✭tobsey


    derekgine3 wrote: »
    Absolutely, if i was to put money on it from a global perspective. We will enter into hyperinflation in 2022/2023, the governments will have a knee jerk reaction and jack up interest rates, which will be the catalyst for the crash.


    In Ireland, FFFG in a last ditch attempt to save themselves will start ramping up supply (too little too late). SF will come to power in a snap election or 2024 and will continue to ramp up supply. The above global crash will impact on people's income, confidence and ability to borrow, thus reducing demand when supply finally catches up or surpasses demand.


    Smart money is not getting into the market right now, only brainwashed/panic money (with the exception of those paying huge rent with a family to support and can't move home/house share). Smart money is actually getting out, they will sell now at near all time high and be able to pick up similar property within less than half a decade for probably 40-50% less.

    SO you agree that supply is too low now for demand, so we're not the same as 2005/6 when we were bulding 3 times the homes we're building today. You say supply will ramp up in the next 2-3 years, then SF will continue that in power thereafter. That I can agree is likely, so we're 5 years away from saturation in supply at the earliest, but given the pent up demand that's likely to be further away while we catch up on supply. If that does happen and prices start to fall or collapse, nobody will get a mortgage for the next couple of years while prices are falling. Anyone who has saved a huge amount won't want to buy because they'll expect to get a house cheaper.

    So one of two things will happen I think, either it plays out as you suggest and we're 8-10 years away from the optimum time to purchase. There are very few people who can live happily rent free for the next 10 years while life passes them by.

    Or, you're right about some global downturn and the economy contracts and potential purchasers lose their buying power and demand contracts. If that happens then supply will slow as well. Unless, SF do get into power, build massive estates of social housing, for people with even lower unemployment rates than today and create social issues that will take decades to resolve.

    The only reason not to buy now in my mind is you can't afford it, or you haven't decided to settle in a location yet. Waiting for the market to come back down is not going to give you a very good quality of life.


  • #26
    Shedite27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,428 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    derekgine3 wrote: »
    Absolutely, if i was to put money on it from a global perspective. We will enter into hyperinflation in 2022/2023, the governments will have a knee jerk reaction and jack up interest rates, which will be the catalyst for the crash.


    In Ireland, FFFG in a last ditch attempt to save themselves will start ramping up supply (too little too late). SF will come to power in a snap election or 2024 and will continue to ramp up supply. The above global crash will impact on people's income, confidence and ability to borrow, thus reducing demand when supply finally catches up or surpasses demand.


    Smart money is not getting into the market right now, only brainwashed/panic money (with the exception of those paying huge rent with a family to support and can't move home/house share). Smart money is actually getting out, they will sell now at near all time high and be able to pick up similar property within less than half a decade for probably 40-50% less.

    How is any of that going to change supply and demand issue? Do you really think house prices are going to be 50% less in 5 years time? And if so, are you selling?


  • #27
    Villa05
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,723 ✭✭✭Villa05


    tobsey wrote:
    350k brand new in 2016. This is a 55% increase in that time. That's double what the statistics say. They may get it but it's a massive increase. How were these so cheap new?

    Was it cheap? May explain why the investment funds risked there monopoly on apartments to venture into houses.

    To those in the know could the following questions be answered

    A. If a completed estate has been sold to investment fund would ftb still qualify for ftb plus shared equity were they to buy from the investment fund

    B Were the units to be rented out for a short time and then sold to ftb. Would they qualify for state supports

    Shedite27 wrote:
    I can't see a crash happening anytime soon when there's so many more people that want to buy homes than homes available. Last time out people were buying second homes so that caused the crash.

    If there is 30% inflation on building materials is correct and sustained. Central banks will have to react and address that level of inflation. The only tool they have in doing so is interest rate rises to cool economies

    I'm skeptic about the degree of inflation and would need more time to determine how much of it is down to manafacturing and supply chain issues

    Timber alone is down to administrative issues I believe in this country with delays in tree felling licences from the Dept of Agriculture reported to be an issue a year ago and still an issue today


  • #28
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    tobsey wrote: »
    SO you agree that supply is too low now for demand, so we're not the same as 2005/6 when we were bulding 3 times the homes we're building today. You say supply will ramp up in the next 2-3 years, then SF will continue that in power thereafter. That I can agree is likely, so we're 5 years away from saturation in supply at the earliest, but given the pent up demand that's likely to be further away while we catch up on supply. If that does happen and prices start to fall or collapse, nobody will get a mortgage for the next couple of years while prices are falling. Anyone who has saved a huge amount won't want to buy because they'll expect to get a house cheaper.

    So one of two things will happen I think, either it plays out as you suggest and we're 8-10 years away from the optimum time to purchase. There are very few people who can live happily rent free for the next 10 years while life passes them by.

    Or, you're right about some global downturn and the economy contracts and potential purchasers lose their buying power and demand contracts. If that happens then supply will slow as well. Unless, SF do get into power, build massive estates of social housing, for people with even lower unemployment rates than today and create social issues that will take decades to resolve.

    The only reason not to buy now in my mind is you can't afford it, or you haven't decided to settle in a location yet. Waiting for the market to come back down is not going to give you a very good quality of life.

    But the supply/demand figures used by the Government, media etc. are based upon the Central Bank figures (pre-covid) that estimated we require 30k - 35k homes per annum to meed demand.

    It's based on net inward migration remaining at c. 30,000 per annum going forward despite the same report stating that "net migration contributed negatively to population growth during the years 2011 to 2016". It's also based on c. 5,000 existing homes becoming obsolete each and every year and needing to be replaced.

    If someone takes the view that net inward migration levels won't be anywhere near these levels going forward (and may even reverse) and that the projected obsolescence levels are doubtful, we may be already building more than enough homes per year to meet demand, which the same report puts at c. 18k units per annum without inward migration or obsolescence. We built c. 20k new units last year.


  • #29
    Shedite27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,428 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Timber alone is down to administrative issues I believe in this country with delays in tree felling licences from the Dept of Agriculture reported to be an issue a year ago and still an issue today

    YEah I think the timber issue is far bigger in the states really, we tend to use a lot more brink for houses than timber, opposite true in the states where it's a lot of 100% timber houses.


  • #30
    lalababa
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭lalababa


    Just looked at the results of bidx1 auction today. I don't know how many were being sold guess...100.
    I would be looking at the run down/ middle of nowhere stuff for 30-70k. They were all sold and at around 50% higher than last year...would be my take on it!


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  • #31
    PommieBast
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,805 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    derekgine3 wrote: »
    Smart money is not getting into the market right now, only brainwashed/panic money (with the exception of those paying huge rent with a family to support and can't move home/house share). Smart money is actually getting out, they will sell now at near all time high and be able to pick up similar property within less than half a decade for probably 40-50% less.
    The Dublin 1 apartment I was sale agreed on last year but then pulled out of turned up on BidX and went for about 8% less than what I offered. Makes me glad I got out..


  • #32
    fliball123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,506 ✭✭✭fliball123


    PommieBast wrote: »
    The Dublin 1 apartment I was sale agreed on last year but then pulled out of turned up on BidX and went for about 8% less than what I offered. Makes me glad I got out..

    I think this may be the exception all prices seem to have gone up since this time last year


  • #33
    Roberto_gas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,206 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    Supply and demand can change pretty drastically....once travel opens up after COVID you may see mass emigration for example ! Things definitely dont look good from supply side ! However demand can go down pretty quick as many people are just waiting to explore options elsewhere outside Ireland..but...its same story everywhere in terms of housing !


  • #34
    tobsey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,275 ✭✭✭tobsey


    PropQueries wrote: »
    But the supply/demand figures used by the Government, media etc. are based upon the Central Bank figures (pre-covid) that estimated we require 30k - 35k homes per annum to meed demand.

    It's based on net inward migration remaining at c. 30,000 per annum going forward despite the same report stating that "net migration contributed negatively to population growth during the years 2011 to 2016". It's also based on c. 5,000 existing homes becoming obsolete each and every year and needing to be replaced.

    If someone takes the view that net inward migration levels won't be anywhere near these levels going forward (and may even reverse) and that the projected obsolescence levels are doubtful, we may be already building more than enough homes per year to meet demand, which the same report puts at c. 18k units per annum without inward migration or obsolescence. We built c. 20k new units last year.

    You could be right about the migration figures reversing, but that’s by no means guaranteed. Many people who emigrated in 2011-2016 may come back to keep the figures up. Our economy was very strong pre-Covid and there’s every chance it will continue to do well in the next few years. So no reason to say definitively that net migration will be negative.

    I don’t think you’ll find anyone, anywhere, who thinks that 18k new builds a year could be enough. I know you’ve put thought into that figure but it’s not a credible number when no other research I’m aware of remotely agrees. Pent up demand to date means we need more than the natural increase in demand anyway just to catch up.

    I’ve said many times here that we built over 130k homes in 2006 & 2007. That for me, tied with the vastly lower levels of debt in the property industry, tells me that we won’t have a repeat of 2010-2015. Anyone waiting to buy a home for a song is taking a massive gamble that they’ll never end up buying at all.


  • #35
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭hometruths


    tobsey wrote: »
    I don’t think you’ll find anyone, anywhere, who thinks that 18k new builds a year could be enough. I know you’ve put thought into that figure but it’s not a credible number when no other research I’m aware of remotely agrees. Pent up demand to date means we need more than the natural increase in demand anyway just to catch up. .

    I think it could be enough!

    Not sure if I agree with immigration predictions, but I agree with Props point on obsolete properties.


  • #36
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    tobsey wrote: »
    You could be right about the migration figures reversing, but that’s by no means guaranteed. Many people who emigrated in 2011-2016 may come back to keep the figures up. Our economy was very strong pre-Covid and there’s every chance it will continue to do well in the next few years. So no reason to say definitively that net migration will be negative.

    +1

    Our economy has also been pretty resilient so far compared to some EU countries. That could make Ireland an attractive destination for some.


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  • #37
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Graham wrote: »
    +1

    Our economy has also been pretty resilient so far compared to some EU countries. That could make Ireland an attractive destination for some.

    Possible. However, from listening to the people from the world bank, EU politicians etc. speaking over the past few months about the multinationals based here for tax reasons and upcoming global tax reforms.

    They have being using (what I regard) as kind of patronising lines like we shouldn’t worry as we are an English speaking country, have close relations to the USA, have an educated workforce etc. etc. and that we will keep attracting them even if the global tax reforms go against us.

    Given their previous animosity towards our tax system, it seemed a bit weird that they’re being all nice to us all of a sudden IMO


  • #38
    Roberto_gas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,206 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    Few key factors which will drive economy and housing in general

    1) Someone will have to pay for the gov support given to jobless:possibly the tax payers !
    2) Some business have had permanent damage. We will find real economy data when the gov support stops !
    3) Young generation have been almost kicked out if market if si gle earner. They will emigrate !
    4) Many of the jobless on gov allowances have been able to pay mortgages currently..they may struggle or may not once the allowances stop

    And points 1-2-4 are common across the globe ! Generally housing is dependent on regions but for first time a global shortage and price increase has happened which does not auger well for overall stability of the market ! Interest rate increase is the biggest needle which may burst this bubble !

    Or it may never happen…Risk reward is in favour of risk at this stage for potential buyers looking for own accommodation !


  • #39
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Possible. However, from listening to the people from the world bank, EU politicians etc. speaking over the past few months about the multinationals based here for tax reasons and upcoming global tax reforms.

    I don't expect many of them will be looking for a job. :D

    I also don't buy into the end-of-the-world-for-ireland global tax reforms.

    Here however right now we're already seeing retail desperate for staff and signs hospitality won't be far behind.

    That could translate into pretty quick demand for rentals.


  • #40
    tobsey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,275 ✭✭✭tobsey


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Possible. However, from listening to the people from the world bank, EU politicians etc. speaking over the past few months about the multinationals based here for tax reasons and upcoming global tax reforms.

    They have being using (what I regard) as kind of patronising lines like we shouldn’t worry as we are an English speaking country, have close relations to the USA, have an educated workforce etc. etc. and that we will keep attracting them even if the global tax reforms go against us.

    Given their previous animosity towards our tax system, it seemed a bit weird that they’re being all nice to us all of a sudden IMO

    They've been talking about our corporate tax regime for decades. I wouldn't be banking on that changing to the point that they all up and leave.


  • #41
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,028 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    tobsey wrote: »
    They've been talking about our corporate tax regime for decades. I wouldn't be banking on that changing to the point that they all up and leave.

    The DOF lose sleep at night over this make no mistake about it!


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  • #42
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    PommieBast wrote: »
    The Dublin 1 apartment I was sale agreed on last year but then pulled out of turned up on BidX and went for about 8% less than what I offered. Makes me glad I got out..

    Bidx1.com usually involves problem properties so you expect lower than usual prices ,that sale tells us very little


  • #43
    PommieBast
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,805 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    fliball123 wrote: »
    I think this may be the exception all prices seem to have gone up since this time last year
    Trying to find out what happened to the other property I went sale agreed on. City-centre apartments is one segment I expected to fall whereas houses are up-up-up..


  • #44
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    I think it could be enough!

    Not sure if I agree with immigration predictions, but I agree with Props point on obsolete properties.

    What makes you think 18k could be enough? Are you suggesting there is a lot of excess supply which is not being used?


  • #45
    richard D
    Registered Users Posts: 3 ✭richard D


    Hi

    I rang up enquiring about 2 different properties in the dublin 12 area, it was an older estate agent (55+ yr old plus -more genuine and honest), he told me that it was a frenzy out there and that I would be a lot better waiting for things to cool down. As the bidding on an older 3 bed house was about 10% above asking, he was worried that once the bank valued the property it couldnt justify that price. The house is old and needs a lot of work however in the pics 'He said that a picture can tell a 100 lies'

    Supply is down about 40% from Y on-Y, when the economy opens back up more of this supply will come, in person viewing are beginning now, and once that starts people wont be bidding crazy over the phones in pictures. Also savings will start to deteriorate once the economy opens up.

    In CSO it said Dublin prices have increased 2.3% from the prior year, what im seeing in the market is that properties are being listed for c 50k over prices in 2020 and bidding over 10% of asking, its madness that cant and wont last. I have honest estate agents telling me this.

    <MOD SNIP> there really trying to create a frenzy and squeeze every last drop from the buyers. They know that a 3 bed was selling for 280k in 2019, now that same house is put on at 350k, thats a massive jump, the sad thing is that those two monopolize the market, so daft.ie is saturated with over listed prices from these two agents.

    And buyers see price has gone up, as both of the agents have about 80% of the market, it sets the expectation, once this happens people keep buying and then the 350k is the new normal.

    Its basic psychology.


  • #46
    M_Murphy57
    Registered Users Posts: 725 ✭✭✭M_Murphy57


    richard D wrote: »
    Hi

    I rang up enquiring about 2 different properties in the dublin 12 area, it was an older estate agent (55+ yr old plus -more genuine and honest), he told me that it was a frenzy out there and that I would be a lot better waiting for things to cool down. As the bidding on an older 3 bed house was about 10% above asking, he was worried that once the bank valued the property it couldnt justify that price. The house is old and needs a lot of work however in the pics 'He said that a picture can tell a 100 lies'

    Supply is down about 40% from Y on-Y, when the economy opens back up more of this supply will come, in person viewing are beginning now, and once that starts people wont be bidding crazy over the phones in pictures. Also savings will start to deteriorate once the economy opens up.

    In CSO it said Dublin prices have increased 2.3% from the prior year, what im seeing in the market is that properties are being listed for c 50k over prices in 2020 and bidding over 10% of asking, its madness that cant and wont last. I have honest estate agents telling me this.

    <MOD SNIP> there really trying to create a frenzy and squeeze every last drop from the buyers. They know that a 3 bed was selling for 280k in 2019, now that same house is put on at 350k, thats a massive jump, the sad thing is that those two monopolize the market, so daft.ie is saturated with over listed prices from these two agents.

    And buyers see price has gone up, as both of the agents have about 80% of the market, it sets the expectation, once this happens people keep buying and then the 350k is the new normal.

    Its basic psychology.

    <MOD SNIP> are the worst of the worst, absolute scoundrels.


  • #47
    Villa05
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,723 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Ref arrears cases

    PIA case in court today
    Woman to pay interest only up to 90 years of age. Balance to be recouped on passing of the lady and sale of house

    Much cheaper option than selling to an investment fund and the state paying 800 or so in rent to said fund

    Details on rte website, there was a similar case a few weeks back for a woman from Caherdavin limerick (High demand area) that was refused.

    I wonder is location factored into these decisions in court


  • #48
    mcsean2163
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Graham wrote: »
    +1

    Our economy has also been pretty resilient so far compared to some EU countries. That could make Ireland an attractive destination for some.

    I don't know, if I was a European looking at the cost of rent in Dublin, I might be a bit hesitant....

    Come to Dublin to get PTSD as a contractor moderator for Facebook on minimum wage. Is that really that attractive?


  • #49
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    Richard D, this is not the place for you to name & shame anyone. No more naming names please.


  • #50
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    mcsean2163 wrote: »
    I don't know, if I was a European looking at the cost of rent in Dublin, I might be a bit hesitant....

    Come to Dublin to get PTSD as a contractor moderator for Facebook on minimum wage. Is that really that attractive?

    Appeared to be attractive enough previously and now rents have dropped slightly.


  • #51
    yagan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,542 ✭✭✭yagan


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Ref arrears cases

    PIA case in court today
    Woman to pay interest only up to 90 years of age. Balance to be recouped on passing of the lady and sale of house

    Much cheaper option than selling to an investment fund and the state paying 800 or so in rent to said fund

    Details on rte website, there was a similar case a few weeks back for a woman from Caherdavin limerick (High demand area) that was refused.

    I wonder is location factored into these decisions in court

    Pro homeless crowd who post here won't be happy about that.

    I agree, it's a far more sensible approach and much cheaper than adding another to the housing list.


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