Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

12-05-2021 10:43PM

Cole wrote: »

According to the HSE's info on the Janssen COVID-19 vaccine.

In clinical trials, the vaccine reduced the risk of people:
getting COVID-19 by 66%

being hospitalised with severe COVID-19 by 85%

I guess it's still pretty high, but my understanding was that all the vaccines offer 100% protection against severe covid-19. That's what I've often heard when experts counter the scepticism over the different efficacy figures.

Am I missing something here?

Those figures aren't quite accurate. The trials showed 85% efficacy against severe disease WITHOUT hospitilization. Efficacy against severe disease leading to hospitalization and/or death was 100%.

Stark · 12-05-2021 10:51PM

Delivery update for last week: https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/c3693-update-on-covid-19-vaccine-deliveries-12-may-2021/

I thought there was supposed to be a second big shipment of Astrazenaca after the 175k week 17 shipment but that's not reflected there. Means we're going to be using Pfizer supplies on 50-69 year olds this week if that's the case.

12-05-2021 10:53PM

Stark wrote: »

Delivery update for last week: https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/c3693-update-on-covid-19-vaccine-deliveries-12-may-2021/

I thought there was supposed to be a second big shipment of Astrazenaca after the 175k week 17 shipment but that's not reflected there. Means we're going to be using Pfizer supplies on 50-69 year olds this week if that's the case.

Texts for parc uí caoimh today are saying pfizer for appointments monday

Stark · 12-05-2021 10:54PM

Great, even fewer people to give AZ and J&J to when they do arrive.

astrofool · 12-05-2021 10:54PM

Russman wrote: »

That’s always been something that’s confused me with all this, as a lay person with no real medical knowledge. If the difference between the viral vector and mRNA vaccines is just the way they get the body to produce the same spike protein, why is there such a difference in efficacy rates seen ?

Are we saying that it’s possible, maybe even probable, that had, say, the J&J trial been run alongside Pfizer at the same time and in the same populations and locations, we might have seen similar results to each other ?

Yes, the real world results seem to be bearing this out, there was a study on Scotland about 6 weeks ago which had a mix of AZ and Pfizer and no real world difference was found.

At trial time one or two people getting sick or not, or a slightly different group of people can sway the results (as different strains being dominant) or adjust the confidence intervals, that and the need to put news into clickable chunks (95%!) leads to misunderstanding of what the results mean. Doctors without an immunology background also fall foul of this. Important thing is that those who do understand this recommend all the vaccines equally with the only differentiating factor being the very low risk for CVST, which also means, especially for cohort 4 and 7, that the vaccine they get sooner is the better one, if their GP isn't doing it, sign up online and get to an MVC and/or change to a GP that is doing it.

eoinbn · 12-05-2021 10:58PM

Russman wrote: »

That’s always been something that’s confused me with all this, as a lay person with no real medical knowledge. If the difference between the viral vector and mRNA vaccines is just the way they get the body to produce the same spike protein, why is there such a difference in efficacy rates seen ?

Are we saying that it’s possible, maybe even probable, that had, say, the J&J trial been run alongside Pfizer at the same time and in the same populations and locations, we might have seen similar results to each other ?

The first dose of AZ seems to be on par with Pfizer, maybe even better. The second is where Pfizer pulls ahead. Given than the delivery mechanism for AZ is a virus it is possible that an immune response against the vector has developed which reduces the effectiveness of the second and subsequent doses.
That is probably why the UK were so quick to start mixing vaccines. They probably knew that giving a third shot of AZ might not be that effective. AZ could possibly need a new virus vector which could mean full retrials.

SJFly · 12-05-2021 11:06PM

eoinbn wrote: »

Not unexpected that it would rise. Hopefully there is no more to come.
Assuming 50% breakdown that is 1 in 200k chance for women and 1 in 700k for men.

1 in 100k for women in their 40s, who it's rumoured are now going to be specifically targeted with the vaccine. Pretty much the most at risk group, with only women in their 30s slightly higher. They should make it opt in, like many other countries have done.

vienne86 · 12-05-2021 11:10PM

Pandiculation wrote: »

The Photo ID requirement's a bit much, given you'll have a certain % who may not have any form of photo ID and there's no compulsory photo ID in Ireland. So, while a lot of people will have either a passport, driving licence or public service card, not everyone necessarily does.

If they were being reasonable, showing them the SMS and a printout of your email and so on should really suffice for this, or any ID e.g. your bank card or something.

It's like as if we've a national ID card or something. I'd say there'll be a big issue if you start getting stories of people turned away who had valid appointments.

I mean, if you think about it. I've gone for flu jabs in Boots and they were just booked online and they didn't have a clue who I was when I came in other than I showed up and knew I had an appointment. Why is this any different?

I find it a bit funny that anyone is looking for photo ID when we're all wearing masks!

franciscanpunk · 12-05-2021 11:34PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Did he take whatever he was offered on the portal and what was it in the end?

He actually got the pfizer vaccine through the MVC today, text message within an hour or 2 of registering confirming appointment so well done hse. Im relieved he has a first dose now, didnt matter what vaccine they all do the job but good he got what he was originally told he would get. Persobally J abd J would be ideal for me, one needle and one trip ,im in my 30s so by the time it gets down me there could be a lot of floating around!

Strazdas · 12-05-2021 11:41PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I think at this stage the dogs on the street know the 40 - 49 age group is getting Janssen

The government have been doing soft drops with this info to the media for days

Especially as there are over 200k doses of it due in the next fortnight.

Pandiculation · 13-05-2021 01:07AM

Strazdas wrote: »

Especially as there are over 200k doses of it due in the next fortnight.

There are 746,881 people in that cohort. So it stacks up to perhaps a good chunk of the 45-49 group (357,460) that’s being mentioned.

They can steer it towards the upper end of that age range to minimise risks.

That 40-49 age group is one of the largest demographics in Ireland.

About age 35-45 is the baby boom.

My prediction is they’ll go with Janssen for as much as they can go starting at 49 and working down and then switch back to the mRNA vaccines for the rest.

Any subsequent deliveries of Janssen perhaps going to pharmacies for on demand use in late June & July ?

Micky 32 · 13-05-2021 01:11AM

Done the auld registration tonight. I await for that beep on the phone :pac:. I know a couple in their mid 50’s who registered a few days ago and already got an appointment. The text also said they are getting the pfizer.

revelman · 13-05-2021 06:56AM

So it looks like J&J and Astrazeneca will be cleared for use in people under 50, “at least from 45 years of age” but perhaps even lower.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/niac-expected-to-clear-way-for-use-of-johnson-johnson-and-astrazeneca-vaccines-in-under-50s-1.4563447

I see two options here:

a) They take the British approach and use 40 and above as the age range.
b) They take the German approach of informed consent and allow anyone to take those vaccine who wishes to.

If they go with b), I can see AZ and J&J being distributed at pharmacies too.

plodder · 13-05-2021 07:22AM

Pandiculation wrote: »

The Photo ID requirement's a bit much, given you'll have a certain % who may not have any form of photo ID and there's no compulsory photo ID in Ireland. So, while a lot of people will have either a passport, driving licence or public service card, not everyone necessarily does.

If they were being reasonable, showing them the SMS and a printout of your email and so on should really suffice for this, or any ID e.g. your bank card or something.

It's like as if we've a national ID card or something. I'd say there'll be a big issue if you start getting stories of people turned away who had valid appointments.

I mean, if you think about it. I've gone for flu jabs in Boots and they were just booked online and they didn't have a clue who I was when I came in other than I showed up and knew I had an appointment. Why is this any different?

I haven't heard of anyone being turned away, and it's more likely to have been a problem with the older groups.

It probably should be the same as for voting though. So, valid photo-id or various other kinds of document with your name and address.

Russman · 13-05-2021 07:28AM

revelman wrote: »

So it looks like J&J and Astrazeneca will be cleared for use in people under 50, “at least from 45 years of age” but perhaps even lower.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/niac-expected-to-clear-way-for-use-of-johnson-johnson-and-astrazeneca-vaccines-in-under-50s-1.4563447

I see two options here:

a) They take the British approach and use 40 and above as the age range.
b) They take the German approach of informed consent and allow anyone to take those vaccine who wishes to.

If they go with b), I can see AZ and J&J being distributed at pharmacies too.

I’d guess it’ll be the UK approach. If Leo is talking about everyone being offered a jab by end of June, there won’t be time for pharmacies to be hugely involved I think.

Others will disagree, but the one line in the story I find troubling is:

“Senior sources say that it has been made clear to Niac that such a move would be important for the vaccination programme, which has been hampered by supply shortages and restrictions.”

Personally I think that comes waaay to close to political interfering in what should be a medical decision. I think it should be medical advice first and adjust your plan around that, rather than fulfilling political promises and adjust the medical advice to suit.

SusanC10 · 13-05-2021 07:37AM

Russman wrote: »

Others will disagree, but the one line in the story I find troubling is:

“Senior sources say that it has been made clear to Niac that such a move would be important for the vaccination programme, which has been hampered by supply shortages and restrictions.”

Personally I think that comes waaay to close to political interfering in what should be a medical decision. I think it should be medical advice first and adjust your plan around that, rather than fulfilling political promises and adjust the medical advice to suit.

I agree with you.

I am female 45 and have niggling doubts about taking AZ. They have increased since I read about the 47 year old woman who died in Slovakia after the AZ Vaccine.

omicron · 13-05-2021 07:51AM

Russman wrote: »

I’d guess it’ll be the UK approach. If Leo is talking about everyone being offered a jab by end of June, there won’t be time for pharmacies to be hugely involved I think.

Others will disagree, but the one line in the story I find troubling is:

“Senior sources say that it has been made clear to Niac that such a move would be important for the vaccination programme, which has been hampered by supply shortages and restrictions.”

Personally I think that comes waaay to close to political interfering in what should be a medical decision. I think it should be medical advice first and adjust your plan around that, rather than fulfilling political promises and adjust the medical advice to suit.

The medical advice would be that nobody take a vaccine under 70 and we stay in lockdown forever.
There is no zero risk approach but NIAC shouldn't be giving advice on the basis the lockdown will protect people until more vaccines become available, it should be given on the basis that if we don't get herd immunity we will return to a situation like January in a short period.

iamwhoiam · 13-05-2021 08:03AM

I wonder if they will involve pharmacists for the second doses or boosters later on

nibtrix · 13-05-2021 08:18AM

omicron wrote: »

The medical advice would be that nobody take a vaccine under 70 and we stay in lockdown forever.
There is no zero risk approach but NIAC shouldn't be giving advice on the basis the lockdown will protect people until more vaccines become available, it should be given on the basis that if we don't get herd immunity we will return to a situation like January in a short period.

Exaggerate much? When NIAC first restricted AZ to over 60s they were very clear that for that age group the risk of Covid was worse than the risk of any side effects from the vaccine.
They even showed tables/graphs for all the age groups under that showing how the risks balanced out, and they were very clear that if we hadn’t had other vaccines available then they would have advised AZ for all ages.
Saying they would advise continued lockdown rather than the use of the vaccine is the opposite of what they actually said.

The restrictions on AZ and J&J haven’t even slowed down the rollout so far, except for a few days when the HSE had to pause to rethink the logistics. Up until recently we were constrained by supply/arrival of vaccines and by some of the MVCs not being open yet, and there were plenty of people available in the recommended age groups to take each of the vaccines.

I do agree that we are heading towards a period where the current restrictions would mean we end up with loads of AZ and J&J with no one to give it to. The fact that NIAC are considering lowering the age limit again shows that they take the side of the risks of side-effects are still lower than just keeping everyone in lockdown “forever”.

Happydays2020 · 13-05-2021 08:18AM

omicron wrote: »

The medical advice would be that nobody take a vaccine under 70 and we stay in lockdown forever.
There is no zero risk approach but NIAC shouldn't be giving advice on the basis the lockdown will protect people until more vaccines become available, it should be given on the basis that if we don't get herd immunity we will return to a situation like January in a short period.

I would be very happy to take the JJ. I have read up about it and no issues on my part (later 40’s male). However, I fully understand if someone has doubts on JJ or AZ, and there needs to be some mechanism to allow choice. That mechanism is informed opt in.

The carrot for JJ is freedom and travel (so called vaccine premium). If someone does not opt in then they will have a longer wait for Pfizer.

afro man · 13-05-2021 08:21AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Done the auld registration tonight. I await for that beep on the phone :pac:. I know a couple in their mid 50’s who registered a few days ago and already got an appointment. The text also said they are getting the pfizer.

Micky
I registered last Friday and got text Tuesday and getting Vaccine tomorrow
i'm in mid 50's but getting Monderna Vaccine

whiz · 13-05-2021 08:27AM

U.S. health officials said the number of confirmed cases of a rare but serious blood clot syndrome among people who received Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine has risen to 28, but that the shot's benefits still outweigh the risk.

The additional cases of the clot condition, for the first time, included men. Six of the 28 cases were in men, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention official said Wednesday in a meeting of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, a panel of doctors and public-health officials advising the CDC on vaccine policy. Three of the people with the clot condition have died.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/covid-2021-05-12

I wonder will these developments ( more clots and deaths ) impact NIAC’s decision?

florawest · 13-05-2021 08:32AM

afro man wrote: »

Micky
I registered last Friday and got text Tuesday and getting Vaccine tomorrow
i'm in mid 50's but getting Monderna Vaccine

Hi,

I registered last Saturday, having the Moderna vaccine today at 3 in Galway ðŸ€žðŸ‘Œ

revelman · 13-05-2021 08:42AM

Meanwhile, in Ohio, if you receive a vaccine you are entered into a draw for a prize of $1million, to be awarded each week for the next five weeks...

https://www.thejournal.ie/ohio-covid-19-vaccine-draw-for-1-million-dollars-5435904-May2021/

PmMeUrDogs · 13-05-2021 08:44AM

My dad registered last week, getting Pfizer today.

I'm delighted, that's both parents done, and one sibling. Few more siblings to go, and I'm getting my second Pfizer next week

Lucas Hood · 13-05-2021 08:53AM

40,278 done Tuesday.

Cole · 13-05-2021 08:57AM

Hardyn wrote: »

Those figures aren't quite accurate. The trials showed 85% efficacy against severe disease WITHOUT hospitilization. Efficacy against severe disease leading to hospitalization and/or death was 100%.

Thanks. That's what I thought...would be good if the HSE were precise with this kind of stuff.

Alun · 13-05-2021 09:01AM

Some serious delays at the Aviva MVC late yesterday. My wife had an appointment for 6pm and didn't get her vaccination until 8pm. I had mine there at 9am and was in and out in 30 mins.

Lucas Hood · 13-05-2021 09:06AM

Should hit 2million doses administered today or tomorrow if they keep up this rate.

Russman · 13-05-2021 09:06AM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I would be very happy to take the JJ. I have read up about it and no issues on my part (later 40’s male). However, I fully understand if someone has doubts on JJ or AZ, and there needs to be some mechanism to allow choice. That mechanism is informed opt in.

The carrot for JJ is freedom and travel (so called vaccine premium). If someone does not opt in then they will have a longer wait for Pfizer.

I agree. Like you I'd happily take any of them, its just the whole process seems to me to be too skewed towards "lets not waste any J&J". I get that there's a balance to be found between logistics, safety, etc etc., I just think they've become too fixated on the end of June date they promised. Lifting of restrictions is almost irreversible at this point, a huge chunk of vulnerable are protected and I don't think we'll go backwards.

Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

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