2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

cnocbui · 12-05-2021 04:43PM

timmyntc wrote: »

If you can't afford to renovate your extra home, then sell it!

I couldn't sell it due to the provisioning of a will and a subsequent probate issue which I have just managed to overcome - a process that took more than two years and wasn't cheap.

cnocbui · 12-05-2021 04:45PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Its anti-social

If you cant afford to renovate then sell it!

What is anti-social about owning a holiday home? It's over an hours drive from any city.

timmyntc · 12-05-2021 04:46PM

cnocbui wrote: »

I couldn't sell it due to the provisioning of a will and a subsequent probate issue which I have just managed to overcome - a process that took more than two years and wasn't cheap.

Those extenuating circumstances aside -
if its not cost-effective to renovate a vacant property - then you sell. You shouldn't be let leave an in-demand unit vacant indefinitely simply because you dont see any profit in doing it up. You sell, and someone else will renovate it either to rent or live.

cnocbui wrote:

What is anti-social about owning a holiday home? It's over an hours drive from any city.

We were and are all talking in general terms - in references to McWilliams article about how people leaving city properties vacant & derelict are too rich not too poor.

SmokyMo · 12-05-2021 04:47PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Go ahead, increase the Revenue head count by 25%. More taxes and more civil servants - go for it - just what this country needs.

REITS are a huge problem but the discussion here has turned to inaccessible spaces above shops, and the like. Crazy. Deal with the elephant in the room, before worrying about the mice.

How many property owners have the funds necessary to do the renovations? if they all are forced to do it, assuming a magic amount of money, what would that do to the rental values? If they all had to borrow money to fund this nonsense, the rental yield could be insufficient to service borrowings. Not to mention the net effect of all this on Irelands currently minuscule level of debt.

Where are the workers coming from to do these soon to be white elephant property conversions? Where is the money coming from?

I have a property currently for sale, the prospective buyer has applied for a mortgage. So far it's been 5 months without it being granted yet.

You own a shop, which makes ends meet, but isn't a spectacular earner. The government drops a 10% tax on you for the inaccessible, uninsulated, unplumbed, old wiring, spaces above. You apply for a loan to do the conversion and the banks say no. Then what? Yeah, great if such small business owners go under, fire their one employee, and are forced to put their property on the market, along with the 12,000 others doing likewise at the same time, for the same reason. What a win for FTBers - the prices of uninhabitable commercial buildings falling through the floor.

The sheer impracticality and negative consequences of what people are proposing here at the moment just spin my head.

what are you on about? You own derelict property(s) in demand zone but have no money to renovate? Sell it then. Use it or lose it.
cant find people to do work? Dont care, shouldnt let the building rot. Sell it then.
Enough pampering.

Villa05 · 12-05-2021 04:48PM

cnocbui wrote:

I have chosen not to renovate my 'holiday' home because I did not think the revenue that might be achievable would justify the cost. I could have predicated my cost benefit on an income stream from AirBnb and the government could hove come along a week after I had hocked myself to the eyeballs and banned AirBnb due to some local nimby with an existing hotel making a stink.

You'd generate some income here alone if you stated declare interest by pm, no need to renovate just clean
Holiday homes will be goldust this and next summer

Marius34 · 12-05-2021 04:52PM

yagan wrote: »

Profits?

Asset appreciation isn't profit.

Is it still income? Let it be income as you wish. Still this doesn't change much, your source of information doesn't tell anything about REITS source of Income.

Villa05 · 12-05-2021 04:52PM

cnocbui wrote:

What is anti-social about owning a holiday home? It's over an hours drive from any city.

WFH appeal, have u decent broadband

cnocbui · 12-05-2021 04:52PM

Villa05 wrote: »

You'd generate some income here alone if you stated declare interest by pm, no need to renovate just clean
Holiday homes will be goldust this and next summer

What?

cnocbui · 12-05-2021 04:56PM

Villa05 wrote: »

WFH appeal, have u decent broadband

No prospect of broadband other than via Musk's starlink satellite system. Basically no mobile phone reception either.

yagan · 12-05-2021 05:00PM

Marius34 wrote: »

Is it still income? Let it be income as you wish. Still this doesn't change much, your source of information doesn't tell anything about REITS source of Income.

My source of information?

It was always speculation but your defensiveness has me intrigued.

PropQueries · 12-05-2021 05:09PM

The Government's current policy of relying on pension funds etc. to keep buying build-to-rent apartments may be hitting a brick wall sooner than they think.

As reported today, the consumer price index in the states rose to 4.2% in April from a year earlier. I've noticed my local barbers haircut prices have increased from €20 to €30 so it's already here or on the way here IMO

And, according to the financial press today, many investors in the markets aren't believing the feds narrative that it's "transitory".

So, if those funds are currently seeking a yield of 3.5%, how's that going to work out for financing all these apartments should interest rates rise to e.g. 3% on this side of the atlantic assuming that this inflation isn't "transitory" and becomes a worldwide phenomenon?

Will they start demanding 6% - 7% which may then result in existing build-to-rent apartments falling in value by up to c. 50% or more even if current "market" rents etc. all remain the same?

How will all these apartments that the Government is relying on be built given what they have said they currently cost to build?

Bass Reeves · 12-05-2021 05:12PM

PropQueries wrote: »

The Government's current policy of relying on pension funds etc. to keep buying build-to-rent apartments may be hitting a brick wall sooner than they think.

As reported today, the consumer price index in the states rose to 4.2% in April from a year earlier. I've noticed my local barbers haircut prices have increased from €20 to €30 so it's already here or on the way here IMO

And, according to the financial press today, many investors in the markets aren't believing the feds narrative that it's "transitory".

So, if those funds are currently seeking a yield of 3.5%, how's that going to work out for financing all these apartments should interest rates rise to e.g. 3% on this side of the atlantic assuming that this inflation isn't "transitory" and becomes a worldwide phenomenon?

Will they start demanding 6% - 7% which may then result in existing build-to-rent apartments falling in value by up to c. 50% or more even if current "market" rents etc. all remain the same?

How will all these apartments that the Government is relying on be built given what they have said they currently cost to build?

I think there are things called rent reviews build in maybe even upwards only

PropQueries · 12-05-2021 05:15PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I think there are things called rent reviews build in maybe even upwards only

So, those apartments that the Government has agreed to let over 25 years at c. €2,000 a month will be increasing to c. €4,000 per month? Maybe, if they're tied into it.

Can the Government justify or more importantly afford such increases?

But the apartments that aren't yet built or tied in, they could easily fall in value by c. 50% or more IMO

I think the Government is going to have to come up with a Plan B and fast IMO

yagan · 12-05-2021 05:19PM

Fascinating WSJ piece about the institutional rent farming bubble.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-you-sell-a-house-these-days-the-buyer-might-be-a-pension-fund-11617544801

“You now have permanent capital competing with a young couple trying to buy a house,” said John Burns, whose eponymous real estate consulting firm estimates that in many of the nation’s top markets, roughly one in every five houses sold is bought by someone who never moves in. “That’s going to make U.S. housing permanently more expensive,” he said.

“Limited housing supply, low rates, a global reach for yield, and what we’re calling the institutionalization of real-estate investors has set the stage for another speculative investor-driven home price bubble,” the firm concluded.

It is entirely possible that we may end up a rental surplus but paying 15-10 rental bonds written by Fianna Fail to reduce the housing list. Even as silent partner they could have made building social housing where it was in short supply a priority.

Bass Reeves · 12-05-2021 05:29PM

PropQueries wrote: »

So, those apartments that the Government has agreed to let over 25 years at c. €2,000 a month will be increasing to c. €4,000 per month? Maybe, if they're tied into it.

Can the Government justify or more importantly afford such increases?

But the apartments that aren't yet built or tied in, they could easily fall in value by c. 50% or more IMO

I think the Government is going to have to come up with a Plan B and fast IMO

Again you are flip flopping all.over the place. Previous post you stated it was older apartments that fall in value as yield would be too low not you are saying apartments being build will fall in value.

If we have inflation and wage inflation then building costs will not reduce. If that happen supply is reduced and we are back to square one

Hubertj · 12-05-2021 05:31PM

yagan wrote: »

Fascinating WSJ piece about the institutional rent farming bubble.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-you-sell-a-house-these-days-the-buyer-might-be-a-pension-fund-11617544801

It is entirely possible that we may end up a rental surplus but paying 15-10 rental bonds written by Fianna Fail to reduce the housing list. Even as silent partner they could have made building social housing where it was in short supply a priority.

I’d be interested to see your numbers on a surplus of units considering the difference between units being delivered and the forecasts of 30k + being published by the ESRI. didn’t the central bank say it could be even higher a couple of years back?

PropQueries · 12-05-2021 05:36PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Again you are flip flopping all.over the place. Previous post you stated it was older apartments that fall in value as yield would be too low not you are saying apartments being build will fall in value.

If we have inflation and wage inflation then building costs will not reduce. If that happen supply is reduced and we are back to square one

Inflation won't rise so much that wages will rise. The central banks will put a dampener on it long before any such increases in inflation would have a positive impact on wages, debt levels etc. If inflation does take off, companies here will very likely move to eastern EU countries even quicker IMO

All it takes is for central bank rates to rise to c. 3% and all those build-to-rent apartments no longer become viable at anywhere near current market valuations IMO

As I mentioned above, whoever in Government thought that the funds will solve our housing issues going forward really needs to draw up a real Plan B and quickly IMO, just in case this inflation isn't "transitory", which it may very well be, but it appears the markets are beginning to believe otherwise.

yagan · 12-05-2021 05:40PM

Hubertj wrote: »

I’d be interested to see your numbers on a surplus of units considering the difference between units being delivered and the forecasts of 30k + being published by the ESRI. didn’t the central bank say it could be even higher a couple of years back?

The closest to the true count of unoccupied is a census, but that's deferred this year due to Covid I believe.

12-05-2021 05:51PM

The mister X had 600 euros home wage per week before Covid or 2400 euros per month
The mister X wife had 400 euros working in hospitality sector or 1600 euros per month
Pair pay rent 1200 euros per month
Due with lockdown mister X work place closed done and mister X income per week went to 350 euros PUP what is 1400 freshly printed money from ECB per month what is 1000 euros loss per month !
Sure due with closed pub he saved Extra as government said and because he did not go for holiday he saved another extra as government said
But in reality his incomes are Minus 1000 euros
The mister X wife Lost job in hospitality sector and her incomes went to 220 euros per week or 880 euros per month or Minus 720 euros per month
The couple lost 1720 euros per month
Were you see inflation guys when is huge deflation on way ?
Nobody know were savings will go guys ! Many people lost jobs and will have pay mortgages and rents.Many parents will have support kids rents and education because many lost jobs !
The Central bank officials already said 100K jobs lost already !
When government says 14 billions in savings will flow to the market and will move economy forward !
Nothing will go on market and there is no money for inflation !

Hubertj · 12-05-2021 06:06PM

yagan wrote: »

The closest to the true count of unoccupied is a census, but that's deferred this year due to Covid I believe.

I think the RTB register should be the main source of such information where landlords record such information.

12-05-2021 06:14PM

These estates that were bulk bought, were on the market for a while and were not being sold.
Apartments in greystones, and houses in Dublin 15, obviously were not being sold, they were on the market long enough, then were sold in bulk.
I don't know about maynooth
So, why were they not being bought? Where are all the ftb for these new builds?

12-05-2021 06:17PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Inflation won't rise so much that wages will rise. The central banks will put a dampener on it long before any such increases in inflation would have a positive impact on wages, debt levels etc. If inflation does take off, companies here will very likely move to eastern EU countries even quicker IMO

All it takes is for central bank rates to rise to c. 3% and all those build-to-rent apartments no longer become viable at anywhere near current market valuations IMO

As I mentioned above, whoever in Government thought that the funds will solve our housing issues going forward really needs to draw up a real Plan B and quickly IMO, just in case this inflation isn't "transitory", which it may very well be, but it appears the markets are beginning to believe otherwise.

There will be no wages rise because will be huge supply of cheap labor from South America.
The government will work heavily at labor import trying support business recovery
The bigger competition on jobs market the smaller the wages
The immigration will kick renting market and investment to property what is the same as building industry and mortgages
We will get cheap labor good rents good interest to invest to property higher property prices bigger VAT and the bigger the movement the bigger the inflation
But the lower the wage the less income what mean prices can not rise
This gonna be interesting
Because bringing cheap labor you put wages down and prices can not rise because people does not have good wages
Bring minimal wage to 12.50 per hour as Varadkar says ? Will this help business recovery ? Unless government will cover extra by wage support !
But will there enough money and for how long ? This is another question.
How heavy will be emigration ? This is another

Hubertj · 12-05-2021 06:30PM

bubblypop wrote: »

These estates that were bulk bought, were on the market for a while and were not being sold.
Apartments in greystones, and houses in Dublin 15, obviously were not being sold, they were on the market long enough, then were sold in bulk.
I don't know about maynooth
So, why were they not being bought? Where are all the ftb for these new builds?

I was asking that last week. According to the media reports there were a lot of buyers lined up for the estate in Maynooth. Also Something about h the planning strategy for the region meant there would be fewer and fewer houses built going forward.

yagan · 12-05-2021 06:31PM

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

There will be no wages rise because will be huge supply of cheap labor from South America.
The government will work heavily at labor import trying support business recovery
The bigger competition on jobs market the smaller the wages
The immigration will kick renting market and investment to property what is the same as building industry and mortgages
We will get cheap labor good rents good interest to invest to property higher property prices bigger VAT and the bigger the movement the bigger the inflation
But the lower the wage the less income what mean prices can not rise
This gonna be interesting
Because bringing cheap labor you put wages down and prices can not rise because people does not have good wages
Bring minimal wage to 12.50 per hour as Varadkar says ? Will this help business recovery ? Unless government will cover extra by wage support !
But will there enough money and for how long ? This is another question.
How heavy will be emigration ? This is another

In fairness I have to think back 20 years since I last met any Irish person working in a meat factory.

But you do have a point in that immigration has been influenced by the Fianna Fail/Fine Gael landlordism.

12-05-2021 06:39PM

Well there will be inflation for sure
There will be wind turbines were government will invest billions of freshly printed ECB money
Nobody cares how much this will cost because this is main trend give voice for green politician and create jobs for unemployed people !
Once he is green he is all right how much this gonna cost who cares about the price when you save the Planet ?
Then your electricity bill will go from 200 to 600 euros but we need pay for the future ! We have to !
Then because electricity up the bread price will be up but the problem is that your wage will not up because there is at least 200 millions cheap labor happy work for small wage
When this will happen there will be huge mess on property market !
At the moment government work on bringing water charge again .
Well the future of property market in Ireland gonna be very interesting and far far way of what you are talking about it now.

Mic 1972 · 12-05-2021 06:48PM

bubblypop wrote: »

These estates that were bulk bought, were on the market for a while and were not being sold.
Apartments in greystones, and houses in Dublin 15, obviously were not being sold, they were on the market long enough, then were sold in bulk.
I don't know about maynooth
So, why were they not being bought? Where are all the ftb for these new builds?

What houses in D15 weren't being sold? Any particular estate?

i'd like to know because i have been trying to buy in D15 for a while now, they all seem to go pretty quickly and for much higher than asking

12-05-2021 06:48PM

yagan wrote: »

In fairness I have to think back 20 years since I last met any Irish person working in a meat factory.

But you do have a point in that immigration has been influenced by the Fianna Fail/Fine Gael landlordism.

When we get 1 emigrant away and 2 immigrants for same price in
We create higher demand and property price
We getting 1 emigrant which will earn money somewhere else and not claiming social welfare
Which will bring money to us buying house at home
And we have 2 worker immigrants for price of 1 emigrant which will pay rent and pay pensions to irish pensioners
This is the main model of irish building sector and investment from mid 90s

awec · 12-05-2021 06:51PM

bubblypop wrote: »

These estates that were bulk bought, were on the market for a while and were not being sold.
Apartments in greystones, and houses in Dublin 15, obviously were not being sold, they were on the market long enough, then were sold in bulk.
I don't know about maynooth
So, why were they not being bought? Where are all the ftb for these new builds?

The Greystones apartments were luxury, high end apartments. Almost no FTBs would have been buying those. You were talking 550-600k for a 2 bed apartment, the top floor apartments closer to a million.

3k a year fees too for owners.

I think Glenveagh misread the market for these at the time. The houses in marina village, as far as I know, sold with little issue.

The thing I always found odd about these apartments is for the price many of them offer almost zero privacy. They are right on the marina, on a very busy public walkway. It's a fairly big design flaw for properties at this price.

Timing belt · 12-05-2021 06:58PM

hmmm wrote: »

https://www.echo.ie/news/article/councillors-vote-unanimously-against-cookstown-castle-plans

Councilors vote unanimously to oppose a scheme with over 1,000 apartments.

I know nothing is perfect, but it seems to me councilors go out of their way to find reasons to object to things. The article quotes several reasons for objecting, including it being apartments and not for families (single people and couples need somewhere to live too), it not all being social housing (do we really want to go back to large social estates?), all for rent (not everyone wants to buy), putting pressure on the LUAS and Dublin bus (where else are we going to build?), and near the flight path to Baldonnel (ffs).

That made me laugh...flight path to Baldonnel...that can’t be a serious reason to object....if it is then whoever objected should be made fly into London City Airport

yagan · 12-05-2021 07:11PM

Hubertj wrote: »

I think the RTB register should be the main source of such information where landlords record such information.

I presume units built for the to let market but were never rented out wouldn't appear on that.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1