2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

cnocbui · 11-05-2021 12:53PM

timmyntc wrote: »

I disagree - there are windier and wetter countries than ours, and wooden houses are still widely used the world over.

Most masonry houses are not expected to last hundreds of years without maintenance - same goes for timber.
If your house is well built, moisture and rot simply should not happen. Damp/mould/rotting is the sign of a serious structural issue, it doesnt happen under normal conditions.

External facing timber is treated & typically would be woods with low natural moisture contents, so should not rot either. it sounds like a cop out from our behind-the-times construction industry.

I used supposedly the best timber protection product you can get - Sikkens - and my wooden shed has been wrecked by damp and slaters. This climate is hopeless.

Mad_maxx · 11-05-2021 01:02PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Does that include supporting there right to work

Work at what?

Bass Reeves · 11-05-2021 01:03PM

timmyntc wrote: »

I disagree - there are windier and wetter countries than ours, and wooden houses are still widely used the world over.

Most masonry houses are not expected to last hundreds of years without maintenance - same goes for timber.
If your house is well built, moisture and rot simply should not happen. Damp/mould/rotting is the sign of a serious structural issue, it doesnt happen under normal conditions.

External facing timber is treated & typically would be woods with low natural moisture contents, so should not rot either. it sounds like a cop out from our behind-the-times construction industry.

It's a he moisture droplet size in Ireland is the issue. Its the smallest in most of the world.every type of preservation has been tried and had failed. Along with that we have a longer wet period of the year than anywhere else in Europe and shorter dry period.

Everything has been tried and has failed. I bought a hen ARK from the UK that lasts 40+ years in the UK and Scandinavian countries. It did not reach its tenth birthday in Ireland.

There was wood houses build in the UK pre 1500 still standing. Do you not think considering that we were ruled by British for so long that wood houses were not build here in that time frame.....where are they now.

Timber cattle sheds are common in certain parts of the UK. The are the unsuitable for Irish weather conditions.

Moisture droplet size is the issue

timmyntc · 11-05-2021 01:05PM

cnocbui wrote: »

I used supposedly the best timber protection product you can get - Sikkens - and my wooden shed has been wrecked by damp and slaters. This climate is hopeless.

Ah here a shed isnt the same as a house.

A house will have moisture barriers on inside, proper treated wood cladding or similar on outside. Drainage, etc and all round better sealed from the elements.

Mad_maxx · 11-05-2021 01:05PM

enricoh wrote: »

Any refugee coming over for o Gorman's manna from heaven may do so pronto. Paddy is beginning to join the dots on our housing crisis.

And ff and fg are beginning to realize there's no votes in outbidding Paddy's kids on a house to hand it to someone in the country 4 months. Twitter likes don't count in the ballot box!

Michael Martin on the radio earlier, he thought he'd be basking in reopening the country this week, instead he's on the ropes with ordinary punters being outbid.

The QUANGO and media tribes support o Gormans plan, politicians are more influenced by them than middle Ireland

Cal4567 · 11-05-2021 01:10PM

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/planning-board-significantly-underestimated-strategic-housing-work-1.4560913

Planning board ‘significantly underestimated’ strategic housing work

Again, the optics don't look good. What were they thinking, of course it would mean more work.

We just do foresight well, do we? The Planners can't plan in advance.

cnocbui · 11-05-2021 01:14PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Ah here a shed isnt the same as a house.

A house will have moisture barriers on inside, proper treated wood cladding or similar on outside. Drainage, etc and all round better sealed from the elements.

Build one. Come back to ireland and put your money where your mouth is. It's got nothing to do with moisture barriers. What I built is what they market in the UK as a garden office - a log cabin, made in Finland. I made a ramp from pressure treated decking. That's not long for this life either.

jill_valentine · 11-05-2021 01:31PM

Not sure if this is allowed but there was an interesting thread on Schmeddit about vacancies in high end apartment complexes around Dublin yesterday.

Not interested in reopening the Geodirectories argument or anything but there were some startling figures. Clancy Quay, the massive set of apartments near HSQ is reporting only 38% occupancy?? So 62% of its capacity - shelter for more than a thousand people by their reckoning - is sitting idle in that one complex. On paper you could shelter an eighth of the recorded homeless population of the entire country in the vacancy of that one development. But we can't, because fundconomics needs their potential value more than it needs any actual income from them.

I mean I know it's not that simple and I get the whole concept of asset value but jaysus...

PropQueries · 11-05-2021 01:38PM

Interesting article in Agriland today with Seán Canney (TD for Galway) in relation to getting those vacant properties in towns and villages in Ireland back into use.

While he's primarily talking about towns and villages outside Dublin, he also says that "According to the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI), 75% of all floor space above ground floor retail space in Dublin city is empty."

I don't agree with many of his solutions as they're primarily carrot based when we're way past carrot based solutions at this stage and we're more in need of significant big sticks IMO. But the 75% of all floor space above ground floor retail space in Dublin City being empty is a bit of an eye-opener and a easy win or the silver bullet for the state should they choose to use it IMO

Link to the article in Agriland.ie here: https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/vacant-homes-in-towns-and-villages-could-solve-housing-shortage-canney/

Hubertj · 11-05-2021 01:44PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It's a he moisture droplet size in Ireland is the issue. Its the smallest in most of the world.every type of preservation has been tried and had failed. Along with that we have a longer wet period of the year than anywhere else in Europe and shorter dry period.

Everything has been tried and has failed. I bought a hen ARK from the UK that lasts 40+ years in the UK and Scandinavian countries. It did not reach its tenth birthday in Ireland.

There was wood houses build in the UK pre 1500 still standing. Do you not think considering that we were ruled by British for so long that wood houses were not build here in that time frame.....where are they now.

Timber cattle sheds are common in certain parts of the UK. The are the unsuitable for Irish weather conditions.

Moisture droplet size is the issue

Very enlightening thank you. I’ve heard the debate around this before but never any specifics around why it isn’t feasible.

Marius34 · 11-05-2021 01:50PM

jill_valentine wrote: »

Not sure if this is allowed but there was an interesting thread on Schmeddit about vacancies in high end apartment complexes around Dublin yesterday.

Not interested in reopening the Geodirectories argument or anything but there were some startling figures. Clancy Quay, the massive set of apartments near HSQ is reporting only 38% occupancy??

I mean I get the whole concept of asset value but jaysus...

I don't think the main issue is asset value, RPZ is likely a bigger issue they are facing.

Browney7 · 11-05-2021 01:50PM

jill_valentine wrote: »

Not sure if this is allowed but there was an interesting thread on Schmeddit about vacancies in high end apartment complexes around Dublin yesterday.

Not interested in reopening the Geodirectories argument or anything but there were some startling figures. Clancy Quay, the massive set of apartments near HSQ is reporting only 38% occupancy??

I mean I get the whole concept of asset value but jaysus...

Kennedy wilson have numbers as at q1 on their site. They list an average occupancy % for "multifamily property" for 2021 of 91.9% which was 98.4% for their 2020 figures. Revenue down from 7.2m to 6.8m.

They have a separate section explaining their portfolio in "lease-up" under which capital dock and Clancy quay are listed. The % leased of multifamily units in capital dock is 53% (89 units out of 190 are not leased) and the equivalent figure in Clancy quay phase 3 is 54% (128 out of 279 units are not leased).

From memory and open to correction, capital dock launched in late 2019 and Clancy quay was summer 2020.

PropQueries · 11-05-2021 01:57PM

Marius34 wrote: »

I don't think the main issue is asset value, RPZ is likely a bigger issue they are facing.

It must be asset value as it can't be RPZ rules unless they believe the Government is going to remove them in the next 12 months.

Would that be politically feasible if there is a supply shortage especially as it would most likely just result in more government spending on HAP etc. at a time when they really don't have any more to give?

The only solution is a vacant property tax i.e. applying a real cost to keeping properties vacant. If this government doesn't bring it in, the next government most likely will. Just for revenue generating measures if nothing else IMO

Marius34 · 11-05-2021 02:00PM

PropQueries wrote: »

It must be asset value as it can't be RPZ rules unless they believe the Government is going to remove them in the next 12 months.

Would that be politically feasible if there is a supply shortage especially as it would most likely just result in more government spending on HAP etc. at a time when they really don't have any more to give?

The only solution is a vacant property tax i.e. applying a real cost to keeping properties vacant. If this government doesn't bring it in, the next government most likely will. Just for revenue generating measures if nothing else IMO

Or maybe they hope that life in lockdown is not forever.

jill_valentine · 11-05-2021 02:03PM

2020 was just Clancy Quay's last phase. As far as I can tell Phase 1, with 400+ units, has been on the go since 2013, I don't know about Phase 2.

But that's crazy. I mean I understand the market produces weird outcomes sometimes, but that's a fundamentally mad situation. Essentially every occupied unit has a unit each side of them empty? Everything that makes that economic needs re examining.

Browney7 · 11-05-2021 02:12PM

jill_valentine wrote: »

2020 was just Clancy Quay's last phase. As far as I can tell Phase 1, with 400+ units, has been on the go since 2013, I don't know about Phase 2.

But that's crazy. I mean I understand the market produces weird outcomes sometimes, but that's a fundamentally mad situation. Essentially every occupied unit has a unit each side of them empty? Everything that makes that economic needs re examining.

Phase 1 and 2 of CQ would then be in first set of figures I expect. IRES publish figures also which have a lower level of vacancies than KW. When I looked on daft recently ires had approx 60 ads for property for rent at present.

PropQueries · 11-05-2021 02:13PM

Marius34 wrote: »

Or maybe they hope that life in lockdown is not forever.

Many of those apartments were vacant pre-covid. More have become vacant due to covid and that's despite the councils soaking up many of them through HAP, long-term leasing, buying outright etc.

Do people really believe demand for housing in Dublin will return to pre-covid levels given that according to RTE reported 2 weeks ago that post-covid e.g. AIB staff to work 3 days from home.

Even Google has backtracked and is now more firmly on the side of full-time WFH, Hybrid etc. "60% of Google’s staff will work in the office “a few days a week.” Another 20% will be able to relocate to other company sites, while the remaining one-fifth can apply to permanently work from home.". And, I'm of the opinion that this Hybrid model is more a short-term trend that will revert to either full-time in office or full time WFH very quickly as I don't believe it can/will work in practice.

Throw in that tourism is most likely not going to return to pre-covid levels for several years (if ever due to the possible demise of business related travel for carbon footprint reasons etc.), and we will most likely require far less housing in Dublin going forward compared to pre-covid projected levels IMO

And we will most likely build another 20k homes this year on top of last years c. 20k. Throw in probate sales, funds potentially exiting etc. etc. and I think this supply/demand issue may be reversed very soon IMO

Link to RTE AIB WFH: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0430/1213126-aib-staff-to-work-3-days-from-home/

Villa05 · 11-05-2021 02:14PM

Mad_maxx wrote:

Work at what?

Jobs, it may have escaped the debate but the leader of the most successful economy in Europe chose to take in more than their quota for economic reasons.

awec · 11-05-2021 02:14PM

Browney7 wrote: »

Phase 1 and 2 of CQ would then be in first set of figures I expect. IRES publish figures also which have a lower level of vacancies than KW. When I looked on daft recently ires had approx 60 ads for property for rent at present.

You can't really rely on Daft adverts for the likes of the big property companies.

They don't advertise every apartment in my experience. Like they may advertise a 2 bed apartment, but they may actually have 3 of the exact same apartment available.

awec · 11-05-2021 02:16PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Many of those apartments were vacant pre-covid. More have become vacant due to covid and that's despite the councils soaking up many of them through HAP, long-term leasing, buying outright etc.

Do people really believe demand for housing in Dublin will return to pre-covid levels given that according to RTE reported 2 weeks ago that post-covid e.g. AIB staff to work 3 days from home.

Even Google has backtracked and is now more firmly on the side of full-time WFH, Hybrid etc. "60% of Google’s staff will work in the office “a few days a week.” Another 20% will be able to relocate to other company sites, while the remaining one-fifth can apply to permanently work from home.". And, I'm of the opinion that this Hybrid model is more a short-term trend that will revert to either full-time in office or full time WFH very quickly as I don't believe it can/will work in practice.

Throw in that tourism is most likely not going to return to pre-covid levels for several years (if ever due to the possible demise of business related travel for carbon footprint reasons etc.), and we will most likely require far less housing in Dublin going forward compared to pre-covid projected levels IMO

And we will most likely build another 20k homes this year on top of last years c. 20k. Throw in probate sales, funds potentially exiting etc. etc. and I think this supply/demand issue may be reversed very soon IMO

Link to RTE AIB WFH: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0430/1213126-aib-staff-to-work-3-days-from-home/

You ability to spin the truth is unparalleled.

Google moved away from full remote back to telling the majority of their staff they're going to be going back to the office at least 2 or 3 days a week. i.e. the exact opposite to what you insisted was going to happen.

Browney7 · 11-05-2021 02:19PM

awec wrote: »

You can't really rely on Daft adverts for the likes of the big property companies.

They don't advertise every apartment in my experience. Like they may advertise a 2 bed apartment, but they may actually have 3 of the exact same apartment available.

Agreed

Yeah I looked up their annual report for 2020 and their occupancy is listed as 98.4% at 31 Dec 20. They've listed their total portfolio as 3688 properties

Marius34 · 11-05-2021 02:20PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Many of those apartments were vacant pre-covid. More have become vacant due to covid and that's despite the councils soaking up many of them through HAP, long-term leasing, buying outright etc.

Do people really believe demand for housing in Dublin will return to pre-covid levels given that according to RTE reported 2 weeks ago that post-covid e.g. AIB staff to work 3 days from home.

Even Google has backtracked and is now more firmly on the side of full-time WFH, Hybrid etc. "60% of Google’s staff will work in the office “a few days a week.” Another 20% will be able to relocate to other company sites, while the remaining one-fifth can apply to permanently work from home.". And, I'm of the opinion that this Hybrid model is more a short-term trend that will revert to either full-time in office or full time WFH very quickly as I don't believe it can/will work in practice.

Throw in that tourism is most likely not going to return to pre-covid levels for several years (if ever due to the possible demise of business related travel for carbon footprint reasons etc.), and we will most likely require far less housing in Dublin going forward compared to pre-covid projected levels IMO

And we will most likely build another 20k homes this year on top of last years c. 20k. Throw in probate sales, funds potentially exiting etc. etc. and I think this supply/demand issue may be reversed very soon IMO

Link to RTE AIB WFH: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0430/1213126-aib-staff-to-work-3-days-from-home/

Other commentator mentioned that those Clancy Quay with 38% of occupancy, has been fully completed only 2020, so not sure if you still speaking about the same apartments.

MacronvFrugals · 11-05-2021 02:21PM

jill_valentine wrote: »

2020 was just Clancy Quay's last phase. As far as I can tell Phase 1, with 400+ units, has been on the go since 2013, I don't know about Phase 2.

But that's crazy. I mean I understand the market produces weird outcomes sometimes, but that's a fundamentally mad situation. Essentially every occupied unit has a unit each side of them empty? Everything that makes that economic needs re examining.

Foreign investors accounted for 78% of property funding between 2017 and 2019

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0511/1220957-irish-institutional-property-analysis/

RichardAnd · 11-05-2021 02:21PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It's a he moisture droplet size in Ireland is the issue. Its the smallest in most of the world.every type of preservation has been tried and had failed. Along with that we have a longer wet period of the year than anywhere else in Europe and shorter dry period.

Everything has been tried and has failed. I bought a hen ARK from the UK that lasts 40+ years in the UK and Scandinavian countries. It did not reach its tenth birthday in Ireland.

There was wood houses build in the UK pre 1500 still standing. Do you not think considering that we were ruled by British for so long that wood houses were not build here in that time frame.....where are they now.

Timber cattle sheds are common in certain parts of the UK. The are the unsuitable for Irish weather conditions.

Moisture droplet size is the issue

That's interesting. I've heard of people in the UK making use of wooden buildings that were put up in the middle ages, but I can't think of a single example in Ireland.

The oldest occupied house that I've ever come across was a cottage built after the Confederacy Wars, but I think only the walls were original. It would be fantastic to own a house with such history.

Anyways, back to our present times...

Graham · 11-05-2021 02:25PM

Marius34 wrote: »

Other commentator mentioned that those Clancy Quay with 38% of occupancy, has been fully completed only 2020, so not sure if you still speaking about the same apartments.

Something not adding up about the empty units figures being bandied around.

In December KW reported 40% of the recently completed Phase 3 let, ahead of their projections.

Browney7 · 11-05-2021 02:30PM

Graham wrote: »

Something not adding up about the empty units figures being bandied around.

In December KW reported 40% of the recently completed Phase 3 let, ahead of their projections.

That 38% is likely based on an older number or else the Business post article back before Xmas I expect.

Marius34 · 11-05-2021 02:31PM

Graham wrote: »

Something not adding up about the empty units figures being bandied around.

In December KW reported 40% of the recently completed Phase 3 let, ahead of their projections.

I don't take those numbers very serious, mostly they come from Media articles, rather than official reports.

jill_valentine · 11-05-2021 02:43PM

Browney7 wrote: »

That 38% is likely based on an older number or else the Business post article back before Xmas I expect.

So I've gone digging and looked at the report, and you could be right about that number being a bit of a Chinese Whisper, in which case mea culpa for relaying without checking first.

This is the link dropped in thread - https://ir.kennedywilson.com/~/media/Files/K/Kennedy-Wilson-IR-V2/Annual%20Reports/kw-annual-report-2020.pdf

The 38% figure is used in reference to "Clancy Quay Phase 3" so it may actually be referring to Phase 3 specifically. We may not have a figure for the development as a whole.

I'd be very curious about that figure then in that case though, it's a very strange neck of the woods.

Browney7 · 11-05-2021 02:46PM

jill_valentine wrote: »

So I've gone digging and looked at the report, and you could be right about that number being a bit of a Chinese Whisper, in which case mea culpa for relaying without checking first.

This is the link dropped in thread - https://ir.kennedywilson.com/~/media/Files/K/Kennedy-Wilson-IR-V2/Annual%20Reports/kw-annual-report-2020.pdf

The 38% figure is used in reference to "Clancy Quay Phase 3" so it may actually be referring to Phase 3 specifically. We may not have a figure for the development as a whole.

I'd be very curious about that figure then. It's a very strange neck of the woods.

Makes sense, the numbers I posted originally are as at Q1 2021 and reflect phase 3 also so they had some limited activity in Q1

SmokyMo · 11-05-2021 02:52PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Many of those apartments were vacant pre-covid. More have become vacant due to covid and that's despite the councils soaking up many of them through HAP, long-term leasing, buying outright etc.

Do people really believe demand for housing in Dublin will return to pre-covid levels given that according to RTE reported 2 weeks ago that post-covid e.g. AIB staff to work 3 days from home.

Even Google has backtracked and is now more firmly on the side of full-time WFH, Hybrid etc. "60% of Google’s staff will work in the office “a few days a week.” Another 20% will be able to relocate to other company sites, while the remaining one-fifth can apply to permanently work from home.". And, I'm of the opinion that this Hybrid model is more a short-term trend that will revert to either full-time in office or full time WFH very quickly as I don't believe it can/will work in practice.

Throw in that tourism is most likely not going to return to pre-covid levels for several years (if ever due to the possible demise of business related travel for carbon footprint reasons etc.), and we will most likely require far less housing in Dublin going forward compared to pre-covid projected levels IMO

And we will most likely build another 20k homes this year on top of last years c. 20k. Throw in probate sales, funds potentially exiting etc. etc. and I think this supply/demand issue may be reversed very soon IMO

Link to RTE AIB WFH: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0430/1213126-aib-staff-to-work-3-days-from-home/

awec wrote: »

You ability to spin the truth is unparalleled.

Google moved away from full remote back to telling the majority of their staff they're going to be going back to the office at least 2 or 3 days a week. i.e. the exact opposite to what you insisted was going to happen.

If you job position is remotely (no pun) business critical, permanent wfh wont happen. And if your employer telling you you can wfh forever I would be concerned about my position in a company and that company's longevity.

There are reports coming out that productivity declined by 20%, while working hours increased by 30% during covid. Those with children affected the most.

Right now its un popular to talk about returning to the office, and it is a tad early for this discussion.

But soon employees will be screaming to be in a office. Obviously with option to wfh 1-2 days per week. But that was already the case for most jobs.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1