Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

is_that_so · 09-05-2021 08:27AM

blackcard wrote: »

At some stage, the amount of people getting second doses is going to be greater than those getting the first dose which will slow down the roll out to those in the 30 and 40 age brackets

It might but if we are hitting 450K a week not really that much.

Lumen · 09-05-2021 08:57AM

is_that_so wrote: »

It might but if we are hitting 450K a week not really that much.

Using the relative proportions of first and second doses in Michael Martin's February targets, 82% and 57.5%, and an adult population of 3.9m, we'll need to get to 5m doses administered from our current position of around 1.8m, assuming that 400k of those will be J+J, which is another 3.2m doses more than what we have administered to date.

We would need to hit around 430k doses administered per week ON AVERAGE to hit that target by the end of June, and each additional week of 100k+ under that target makes it even less likely.

From a supply perspective we can subtract a few hundred thousand of current stock, but we'll still need over 2.5m doses delivered in the next 7 weeks. I haven't seen any predictions of that.

Still, we don't need to get to 82% first doses to suppress this thing, so I'm still optimistic that July represents a new lifestyle of feeling safe and acting normally* for most of the population, with a long tail of older and medically vulnerable people waiting for their second doses to kick in.

* Of course a few brave pioneers are doing that already :rolleyes:

km79 · 09-05-2021 09:21AM

Strazdas wrote: »

Story in tomorrow's Sunday Times that the HSE has proposed to NIAC lowering the J & J limit to age 45.

Ah ffs
If they are going to reduce it surely it will be to include all 40+

revelman · 09-05-2021 09:31AM

Lumen wrote: »

Using the relative proportions of first and second doses in Michael Martin's February targets, 82% and 57.5%, and an adult population of 3.9m, we'll need to get to 5m doses administered from our current position of around 1.8m, assuming that 400k of those will be J+J, which is another 3.2m doses more than what we have administered to date.

We would need to hit around 430k doses administered per week ON AVERAGE to hit that target by the end of June, and each additional week of 100k+ under that target makes it even less likely.

From a supply perspective we can subtract a few hundred thousand of current stock, but we'll still need over 2.5m doses delivered in the next 7 weeks. I haven't seen any predictions of that.

Still, we don't need to get to 82% first doses to suppress this thing, so I'm still optimistic that July represents a new lifestyle of feeling safe and acting normally* for most of the population, with a long tail of older and medically vulnerable people waiting for their second doses to kick in.

* Of course a few brave pioneers are doing that already :rolleyes:

Thanks, this is interesting. As I see it, there is no way that target will be met by end of June. If we are lucky, age 35 plus will have been offered an appointment by the end of June.

is_that_so · 09-05-2021 09:35AM

Lumen wrote: »

Using the relative proportions of first and second doses in Michael Martin's February targets, 82% and 57.5%, and an adult population of 3.9m, we'll need to get to 5m doses administered from our current position of around 1.8m, assuming that 400k of those will be J+J, which is another 3.2m doses more than what we have administered to date.

We would need to hit around 430k doses administered per week ON AVERAGE to hit that target by the end of June, and each additional week of 100k+ under that target makes it even less likely.

From a supply perspective we can subtract a few hundred thousand of current stock, but we'll still need over 2.5m doses delivered in the next 7 weeks. I haven't seen any predictions of that.

Still, we don't need to get to 82% first doses to suppress this thing, so I'm still optimistic that July represents a new lifestyle of feeling safe and acting normally* for most of the population, with a long tail of older and medically vulnerable people waiting for their second doses to kick in.

* Of course a few brave pioneers are doing that already :rolleyes:

They haven't said vaccinated for quite some time, the message is offered a vaccine by the end of June so that means an appointment.

eoinbn · 09-05-2021 09:52AM

Lumen wrote: »

Nope. That was Leo backsliding later.

"What that means in practical terms is that by the end of April up to 40% of people over the age of 18 years of age will have had their first dose, by the end of May up to 64% will have had their first dose, and by the end of June up to 82% of adults who can be vaccinated will have received at least one dose, and 55-60% will be fully vaccinated."
Michael Martin, 23 Feb 2021

Source: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/covid-vaccine-ramp-up-to-see-80-of-adults-get-dose-by-june-martin-1.4493373

..about 3/4 of the way through the video

This was a carefully scripted televised address.

You can argue that "up to" gave wiggle room but this "offered" thing came later.

The government should not be giving precise figures as most of it is out of their control. I said it at the time, that that speech would haunt them.
Since then AZ and J&J have both had age restrictions. To counteract some of that, we have gotten extra doses of Pfizer. We have seen multiple issues at the J&J site in Baltimore. We have also seen that doses delivered is not doses in arms.

Expect a few more curve balls between now and the end of June.

Call me Al · 09-05-2021 09:55AM

JTMan wrote: »

The article is here. We will find out this week if NIAC reduce the age limit to 40+ or 45+ with J&J.

- HSE chief executive, sought greater flexibility in using the more than 400,000 single-shot J&J vaccines which are due for delivery in June.
- NIAC will issue advice this week on whether the limit can be reduced to include over-45s, or even everyone aged in their forties.
- No change proposed to age limits for AZ.

But if supply is the constraint at the moment what difference will this make right now.
How can we incorporate them into our current rollout plans (even 45+) if the supply just isn't there?
I can't see this change of approach being of any benefit until the J&J volumes ramp up significantly.

Lumen · 09-05-2021 09:58AM

is_that_so wrote: »

They haven't said vaccinated for quite some time, the message is offered a vaccine by the end of June so that means an appointment.

It doesn't necessarily mean that. It could simply mean that they aren't expecting everyone to accept vaccination. Martin's statement was that people would be vaccinated, which obviously is a dumb thing to say considering that it requires consent.

If they meant "offered an appointment" why wouldn't they say that? Presumably because they want to maintain the wiggle room to say that opening the registration system to all age groups consituted an offer.

In any case, I'm simply drawing attention to what was said.

09-05-2021 10:05AM

Surely if you register for a vacvine,and are offered an appointment,then you're not terribly vaccine hesitant

According to George Lee,if you are in cohort 7,your gp can order a vaccine for you
So don't accept the all our vaccines are allocated line

Lumen · 09-05-2021 10:10AM

eoinbn wrote: »

The government should not be giving precise figures as most of it is out of their control. I said it at the time, that that speech would haunt them.

I don't think it will. Nobody cares about projects being delivered late once they're delivered.

It might give the opposition some ammunition but is anyone listening?

February was a dark month, literally and figuratively. It made sense for Martin to make specific commitments in order to hold the line on restrictions at a time when the hospitals were still dealing with the Christmas Covid hangover.

Come July we'll be moaning about something else in our lives. Sunburn, hopefully.

is_that_so · 09-05-2021 10:13AM

Lumen wrote: »

It doesn't necessarily mean that. It could simply mean that they aren't expecting everyone to accept vaccination. Martin's statement was that people would be vaccinated, which obviously is a dumb thing to say considering that it requires consent.

If they meant "offered an appointment" why wouldn't they say that? Presumably because they want to maintain the wiggle room to say that opening the registration system to all age groups consituted an offer.

In any case, I'm simply drawing attention to what was said.

It's really less about the foolishness of the claims/promises than the PR value of setting a point where the end of this is in sight. It's also a determination to quell that slow rollout narrative. Only pedants and bored media types will hold it against them if we're not quite at that point in June!

Happydays2020 · 09-05-2021 10:13AM

They should probably make JJ an opt-in for all age groups when there is supply in June. Let people decide for themselves.

I should add that they need to enthusiastically embrace the Travel Cert app as that will assist in encouraging people to vaccinate.

Beanybabog · 09-05-2021 10:17AM

Does anyone know what our % uptake is? Not how many we’ve done in the cohorts as we are still constrained by supply, but can we estimate by the numbers by the end of this what % of people will have willingly taken the vaccine? I was reading an article about the USA not being able to reach herd immunity, although I imagine if you live in a place that hasn’t been as affected by lockdowns as we have you might not be as bothered. Boards may not be representative of the population as a whole but most people here seem to be dying to get it. Even the people I know who were somewhat hesitant (re AstraZeneca mainly) have all still decided to go ahead and get it. Are we looking like we’ll have enough vaccinated to achieve herd immunity?

Gile_na_gile · 09-05-2021 10:21AM

Finally broke 50k ceiling 52,278 doses
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/vaccination-programme-dashboard-as-of-07-may-2021.pdf

Headline figure from reddit but adds to 49,365 doses in link.

Lumen · 09-05-2021 10:27AM

Beanybabog wrote: »

Does anyone know what our % uptake is? Not how many we’ve done in the cohorts as we are still constrained by reply, but can we estimate by the numbers by the end of this what % of people will have willingly taken the vaccine? I was reading an article about the USA not being able to reach herd immunity, although I imagine if you live in a place that hasn’t been as effected by lockdowns as we have you might not be as bothered. Boards may not be representative of the population as a whole but most people here seem to be dying to get it. Even the people I know who were somewhat hesitant (re AstraZeneca mainly) have all still decided to go ahead and get it. Are we looking like we’ll have enough vaccinated to achieve herd immunity?

Dunno but the last survey I read had 85% of surveyed willing to be vaccinated, and climbing, with 6% (and falling) indicating refusal, and a bias towards hesitancy amongst the young.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/about-85-of-people-willing-to-get-covid-19-vaccine-survey-finds-1.4547738

Since younger people tend to be less infectious their hesitancy has a smaller effect on herd immunity. I don't think this is going to be a problem.

Beasty · 09-05-2021 10:28AM

blackcard wrote: »

At some stage, the amount of people getting second doses is going to be greater than those getting the first dose which will slow down the roll out to those in the 30 and 40 age brackets

is_that_so wrote: »

It might but if we are hitting 450K a week not really that much.

If they are mainly working through the 60-69 cohort currently their second doses will not be for another 3-4 months, unless they get one of the others rather than AZ

I'm at the bottom end of that age grouping and get my first dose on Tuesday. Admittedly that is in one of the regional centres, and I'm not sure how reflective of the country as a whole that is. However many in the 50-59 group will be getting their first dose over the next week or so.

eoinbn · 09-05-2021 10:35AM

blackcard wrote: »

At some stage, the amount of people getting second doses is going to be greater than those getting the first dose which will slow down the roll out to those in the 30 and 40 age brackets

One thing we don't know is how many Pfizer doses we are getting on July. It could potentially be half of what we get in June, maybe less. If that is the case we would have to hold back doses in June for second doses in July. Hopefully the EU has requested the Q3 delivers to be front loaded.

duffman13 · 09-05-2021 10:50AM

eoinbn wrote: »

One thing we don't know is how many Pfizer doses we are getting on July. It could potentially be half of what we get in June, maybe less. If that is the case we would have to hold back doses in June for second doses in July. Hopefully the EU has requested the Q3 delivers to be front loaded.

There will be no front loading but nor will there be a drastic fall off in supply. It will be incremental increases like we've seen so far from Moderna and particularly Pfizer. The problem is that from July, we potentially are only using the mRNA vaccines which mean the 100,000 AZ and 100,000 J&J a week that were (planned on) being used in June are now gone however we should have increased supply of Moderna, Pfizer and hopefully Curevac.

eoinbn · 09-05-2021 11:13AM

duffman13 wrote: »

There will be no front loading but nor will there be a drastic fall off in supply. It will be incremental increases like we've seen so far from Moderna and particularly Pfizer. The problem is that from July, we potentially are only using the mRNA vaccines which mean the 100,000 AZ and 100,000 J&J a week that were (planned on) being used in June are now gone however we should have increased supply of Moderna, Pfizer and hopefully Curevac.

In June we are due to get about 300k doses a week of Pfizer - that is if you to by the the Belgium figures which I have my doubts about. If that continued in Q3 the EU would get 429m doses in that quarter. That isn't happening.
I believe we will get 190m in Q3 and 90m in Q4. Even if we got all the remaining doses(280m) in Q3 it would only equate to 230k doses a week which will be less than our June delivers.

So there will be a large drop in July, or we need to front load the Q3 deliveries. The holding back might not really required as the last delivery in June will likely we largely used for second doses in July. It just means we get very little first doses done in July - mostly Moderna if they have ramped up by then.

Van.Bosch · 09-05-2021 11:20AM

Approx 53,000 vaccines done on Friday - a new record. That’s impressive.

KrustyUCC · 09-05-2021 11:32AM

How are we looking for the 220,000 to 240,000 target for this week?

Should hopefully be at the upper end of the range

Happydays2020 · 09-05-2021 11:33AM

What is the commitment from Moderna and when? I doubt we will see Curevac until July.

Wolf359f · 09-05-2021 11:44AM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

How are we looking for the 220,000 to 240,000 target for this week?

Should hopefully be at the upper end of the range

194k up to Friday, last sat & sun we done 32k. So if we match last weekend, well land at about 226k.

Micky 32 · 09-05-2021 11:45AM

A bit more info coming from the Seychelles. It seems that 80% of the infections were unvaccinated. Good news if true.

https://twitter.com/thatryanchap/status/1391341441583140868?s=21

Eod100 · 09-05-2021 11:55AM

Great to see https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1391344249342418945?s=19

irishlad. · 09-05-2021 12:08PM

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cUZy6AMCwuA2zhtRuKK7cqMVgmhdDsGsZrFWJTkw9DY/edit#gid=1421952725

Great numbers, encouraging for the future months!

20k dose 1's in cohort 5
16k dose 1's in cohort 4
13k dose 2's in cohort 3

Cohort 4 now looks like it will balloon past the original 250k number. This is due to people from cohort 7 being brought in as cohort 4, as highlighted by some on here.

KrustyUCC · 09-05-2021 12:16PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

194k up to Friday, last sat & sun we done 32k. So if we match last weekend, well land at about 226k.

Cool thanks

Be interesting to see the updated J&J used figures this week

Wolf359f · 09-05-2021 12:23PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Cool thanks

Be interesting to see the updated J&J used figures this week

There was only 81 J&J given out the first day (must have squeezed out an extra dose from a vial?)
56 on the second day. Maybe just 2 trial run locations?
You'd want to see that speed up as the whole point of J&J is you bring the vaccine to the people, so less organising needed.

iguana · 09-05-2021 12:26PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

A bit more info coming from the Seychelles. It seems that 80% of the infections were unvaccinated. Good news if true.

https://twitter.com/thatryanchap/status/1391341441583140868?s=21

I'm really interested to see what proportion of the 20% were vaccinated with Sinopharm and what with AZ. If it's significantly over 60% with Sinopharm, then that's very encouraging for those who have gotten/are due to get AZ.

KrustyUCC · 09-05-2021 12:28PM

Very slow figures seeing as we've had 14,000 one dose J&J in stock since the middle of April

Like you say maybe a trial

Still that's something that needs a big ramp up as it's one dose fully vaccinated

Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

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