Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

bennyineire · 07-05-2021 11:49AM

Lumen wrote: »

I have commented before in this thread about how Israel opened up at around 50-55% population vaccinated with at least one dose. Turns out this equates to around 80% of the adult population.

This is possibly where the "80% of adults offered a vaccine by the end of June" target comes from.

Unfortunately Israel has a much larger youth population than we do, which means our 80% of adults is something like 62% of the total population.

This is worth knowing when using sources like OWID which have per capita stats only.

In the last month we've added about 10% per capita vaccinated with at least one dose, and at that rate it will take us until the end of August to reach 62% per capita.

But sure, the ramp up is just around the corner, right?

edit: using more recent trends, i.e. the last week in OWID, puts us at about 13 weeks from hitting that target, so early August.

Also, I noticed that FF is now using the % adults without identifying that it's only the adults. From Donnelly's FB...

I welcome sanity checks of my maths.

50K vaccinated on Wednesday and Thursday, breaking records every week.

Is that not a ramp up? Also rate of increased vaccinations to continue.

Do you math's again taking this week along and with projected increase instead of using last months vaccination rate and see what you come up with

PhilOssophy · 07-05-2021 11:50AM

I still think the risks of AZ are being completely overhyped - maybe the car crash stat is a bad example, but its still probably akin to the likelihood of getting a heart attack while exercising or the like.
I guess it is up to everybody to weigh up their own risk acceptance but if somebody said to me "you can have AZ in 10 minutes time", I'd be there. In spite of being in the under 50's (i.e. "at risk" age group).

07-05-2021 11:50AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Ah ok thanks. I read here it was 10.5 million, which must've been those who had both shots

So 242 cases of blood clotting out of 28.5 million is now 0.00084% as per

https://percentagecalculator.net/ (if I've used it right)

Although, the clotting happened to AZ takers after one dose. As mentioned above, it's 1 in a million (so far) after both shots

Tbh I don't think the AZ risk calculations should be based off both shot figures, the vast majority of blood clots are happening in those after the first shot

Regardless, if I'm offered it I will take it albeit reluctantly

But obviously Pfizer is the gold standard

The 10.5 figure is the number of clotting cases per million who received AZ.

timsey tiger · 07-05-2021 11:58AM

bennyineire wrote: »

50K vaccinated on Wednesday and Thursday, breaking records every week.

Is that not a ramp up? Also rate of increased vaccinations to continue.

Do you math's again taking this week along and with projected increase instead of using last months vaccination rate and see what you come up with

But that would be hard and wouldn't suit the answer I have already, or something.

stephenjmcd · 07-05-2021 12:03PM

Interesting caveats from JCVI, similar to those from NIAC really.

If under 40 an alternative vaccine is preferred, however this is only where possible and where no substantial delay in accessing vaccination would occur.

They also note the ease of transport of AZ compared to others (Pfizer) , in certain settings AZ might be the only vaccine that is practical to offer and in these settings AZ is the preferred vaccine.

Could be relatively easily argued in the UK that at some MVC AZ is the only practical vaccine due to storage requirements.

Much like NIAC advice it's open to interpretation

ShineOn7 · 07-05-2021 12:04PM

Flying Fox wrote: »

The 10.5 figure is the number of clotting cases per million who received AZ.

Thanks

Too many numbers and too much confusion

The simple way to think of it is there's a 1 in 100,000 chance of a clot with AZ

It's then upto individuals to weigh that up against the chances of dying with Covid based on their demographic

Regardless, I don't think anyone in Ireland under 50 will be getting AZ going forward and that may be dropped to anyone under 40 based on the news in the UK today

KrustyUCC · 07-05-2021 12:08PM

Mr Reid acknowledged that there would be a shortage of 40,000 doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine due to be delivered next week, but he was hopeful that this could be made up in time:

Hopefully this is only a blip from J&J

40,000 fully vaccinated people would definitely help with our figures

CrabRevolution · 07-05-2021 12:09PM

bennyineire wrote: »

50K vaccinated on Wednesday and Thursday, breaking records every week.

Is that not a ramp up? Also rate of increased vaccinations to continue.

Do you math's again taking this week along and with projected increase instead of using last months vaccination rate and see what you come up with

A strange trend I've noticed during this vaccination process is that a lot of people don't seem to know what a ramp looks like. For the avoidance of doubt it's a shape with the top surface at an angle to the bottom surface, getting progressively higher as it goes along.

Looking at our vaccination stats and accounting for 2 blips (big one for the AZ pause, and a smaller one for the Easter weekend), every week since February has seen higher vaccination numbers than the preceding week. If that's not a ramp, what is?

ACitizenErased · 07-05-2021 12:09PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Mr Reid acknowledged that there would be a shortage of 40,000 doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine due to be delivered next week, but he was hopeful that this could be made up in time:

Hopefully this is only a blip from J&J

40,000 fully vaccinated people would definitely help with our figures

I think AZs delivery today counteracts that nicely

is_that_so · 07-05-2021 12:11PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Mr Reid acknowledged that there would be a shortage of 40,000 doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine due to be delivered next week, but he was hopeful that this could be made up in time:

Hopefully this is only a blip from J&J

40,000 fully vaccinated people would definitely help with our figures

175,000 were originally expected over the next few weeks. It'll have no great effect for now as the over 50s won't start for two weeks or so. Be interesting to see what they do on homeless and the rest of that group.

seamus · 07-05-2021 12:12PM

Turtwig wrote: »

NPHET didn't make this advice. NIAC Did.

It was in the letter from the CMO on 28th April, page 7
https://assets.gov.ie/133926/98409bf0-d6e5-4c60-b806-fdc8a0f554fc.pdf

That said, they may very well have just been relaying NIAC advice.

07-05-2021 12:15PM

PhilOssophy wrote: »

I still think the risks of AZ are being completely overhyped - maybe the car crash stat is a bad example, but its still probably akin to the likelihood of getting a heart attack while exercising or the like.
I guess it is up to everybody to weigh up their own risk acceptance but if somebody said to me "you can have AZ in 10 minutes time", I'd be there. In spite of being in the under 50's (i.e. "at risk" age group).

I get what you're saying, but going by the UK alone we have an AZ vaccine that has resulted in 49 deaths so far. Pfizer and Moderna have caused 0 deaths so far.

Now, if covid was running rampant in the UK (like in India) it would make sense get every jab available out as quickly as possible. However, when that's not the case, why accept the clotting deaths when they can be largely prevented by offering an alternative to those at risk?

hmmm · 07-05-2021 12:17PM

Flying Fox wrote: »

why accept the clotting deaths when they can be largely prevented by offering an alternative to those at risk?

Why didn't we retain the man with a red flag walking in front of cars? That would reduce road deaths to zero.

I admit the situation thankfully at present allows us to use all our vaccines, but we'll see what happens in late May and June.

ShineOn7 · 07-05-2021 12:17PM

There are 350,000 in Cohort 7

That's a lot of people who can make a lot of noise (or get someone to do it for them)

I can't see the "government" simply ignoring this issue people in Cohort 7 are having with their GPs. It'll be addressed .... eventually

The thing is though, the country begins it's re-opening on Monday and only 1% of Cohort 7 have had one shot

Cork2021 · 07-05-2021 12:20PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I think AZs delivery today counteracts that nicely

How much AZ was delivered?

is_that_so · 07-05-2021 12:22PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

There are 350,000 in Cohort 7

That's a lot of people who can make a lot of noise (or get someone to do it for them)

I can't see the "government" simply ignoring this issue people in Cohort 7 are having with their GPs. It'll be addressed .... eventually

The thing is though, the country begins it's re-opening on Monday and only 1% of Cohort 7 have had one shot

That 1% is largely a GP issue. Group 4 looks to be almost complete on one shot so some greater movement on Group 7 should happen now. Some may also be dealt with through the portal anyway.

07-05-2021 12:23PM

hmmm wrote: »

Why didn't we retain the man with a red flag walking in front of cars? That would reduce road deaths to zero.

I admit the situation thankfully at present allows us to use all our vaccines, but we'll see what happens in late May and June.

How is that a comparable scenario?

Many of us need cars to get from A to B, and the benefits to quality of life outweigh the risks. Accidents can happen driving any brand or model of car.

When it comes to covid vaccines, there are safer options available that won't cause people to die from blood clots.

Scuid Mhór · 07-05-2021 12:24PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

There are 350,000 in Cohort 7

That's a lot of people who can make a lot of noise (or get someone to do it for them)

I can't see the "government" simply ignoring this issue people in Cohort 7 are having with their GPs. It'll be addressed .... eventually

The thing is though, the country begins it's re-opening on Monday and only 1% of Cohort 7 have had one shot

It’s ridiculous. Cohort 7 is being marginalised at the expense of what exactly? The initial idea was that society wasn’t supposed to open up until all of the vulnerable subgroups were vaccinated.

snotboogie · 07-05-2021 12:25PM

Germany go from 30 doses per 100 to 40 doses per 100 in 12 days. I still put us at about a week away from 40 doses per 100. Germany are now far outpacing the UK and along with Spain and Italy are leading Europe on shots per day (when you take out the countries using Chinese and Russian vaccines). I estimate Germany get to 50 doses per 100 on the 17th of May. Spain will only be a day or two behind them.

Country per capita Date Reported Ireland Days Behind
Malta 81.5 May 4th
Lithuania 40.5 May 6th 12
Germany 40 May 6th 11
Spain 39.5 May 5th 11
Austria 38.5 May 6th 8
Estonia 38.5 May 6th 8
Italy 37.5 May 6th 6
Denmark 37 May 4th 7
Belgium 36 May 5th 4
Finland 36 May 5th 4
Portugal 36 May 6th 3
Sweden 35.5 May 6th 2
France 35 May 5th 2
Luxembourg 35 May 5th 2
Poland 34.5 May 6th 0
Slovenia 34 May 6th -1
Ireland 34 May 5th 0
Netherlands 33 May 2nd 1
Cyprus 33 May 1st 2
Czech Rep 33 May 6th -3
Greece 33 May 6th -3
Slovakia 32 May 6th -5
Romania 29 May 5th -10
Croatia 24 May 5th -20
Latvia 19 May 6th -31
Bulgaria 13 May 6th -43

bullpost · 07-05-2021 12:26PM

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-56992121

Bit worrying - upsurge of cases in Seychelles where 60% vaccinated. Third of new cases are in those who were given two doses.

Now the vaccines they are using are not same as here which is something.

Scuid Mhór · 07-05-2021 12:27PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Your GP assessed you "weren't asthmatic enough"?

That's a bit mental to say the least

Anyone with breathing issues of any sort should be Cohort 7, considering - ya know - that Covid attacks the jaysus lungs

The mind boggles

I would imagine it’s a question of very fixed supply of vaccines going out to GPs so GPs have to reserve their vaccine supply for their most serious cohort 7 patients. If there was no supply issue I’d imagine the cohort 7 rollout would be much more successful. I’m optimistic that in two or three weeks the parameters for cohort 7 will be widened.

Scuid Mhór · 07-05-2021 12:28PM

bullpost wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-56992121

Bit worrying - upsurge of cases in Seychelles where 60% vaccinated. Third of new cases are in those who were given two doses.

Now the vaccines they are using are not same as here which is something.

Sounds like the nail in the coffin for Sinopharm.

ACitizenErased · 07-05-2021 12:28PM

Cork2021 wrote: »

How much AZ was delivered?

140k as far as I know

enda1 · 07-05-2021 12:28PM

Living in France and just got BioNTech vaccine.

Also, vaccination opening to all adults from Wednesday (for last minute availability so as not to waste vaccines).
Currently open to all over 55s and also all adults with comorbidity which accounts for quite a lot of people.

ACitizenErased · 07-05-2021 12:32PM

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

Sounds like the nail in the coffin for Sinopharm.

Terrible news tbh. Sinopharm was being used in a lot of places. Just pushes the end of the pandemic back even further.

Russman · 07-05-2021 12:33PM

hmmm wrote: »

Why didn't we retain the man with a red flag walking in front of cars? That would reduce road deaths to zero.

I admit the situation thankfully at present allows us to use all our vaccines, but we'll see what happens in late May and June.

Ahh come on, that's not even an apples to oranges comparison.
We can, hopefully, largely mitigate our potential deaths from the viral vector vaccines with a bit of rejigging of the scheduled rollout. A few weeks delay or some unused vaccines isn't the end of the world, its not ideal of course, and nobody anywhere wants this to go on longer than it has to, but we can't completely be fixated on speed to the detriment of safety.
I have no idea what level of risk or percentage fatalities etc with vaccines are deemed acceptable by the medical community, or what constitutes "safety", but I do think we have to trust their judgement.

ShineOn7 · 07-05-2021 12:35PM

is_that_so wrote: »

That 1% is largely a GP issue. Group 4 looks to be almost complete on one shot so some greater movement on Group 7 should happen now. Some may also be dealt with through the portal anyway.

GPs will/are telling those in Cohort 7 they aren't vaccinating them

They'll then tell them to call the HSE at 1850 24 1850, and the HSE will then say they need to call their GP

It'll go around and around in circles and it's complete nonsense

The latest on Cohort 4 and 7 as of yesterday

Cohort 4 (People aged 16-69 and at very high risk of severe Covid-19)

Total in group: ~250,000
Total vaccines: 216,991 (+6,721)
Total with first vaccine: 210,694 (+6,223)
Total with second vaccine: 6,297 (+498)
84% of total half vaccinated (+2%)
2.5% of total fully vaccinated (+0.2%)

Cohort 7 (People aged 16-69 who have an underlying conditions that puts them at high risk of severe disease and death)

Total in group: ~350,000
Total vaccines: 1,420 (+70)
Total with first vaccine: 1,418 (+70)
Total with second vaccine: 2 (+0)
0.4% of total half vaccinated (+0%)
0% of total fully vaccinated (+0%)

So yes, Cohort 4 are almost done with at least one shot, but Cohort 7 are getting thrown under the bus

Hurrache · 07-05-2021 12:36PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

UK media also reporting that it's a move to try & combat vaccine hesitancy in younger groups, not because of the AZ safety profile.

They mocked the EU when caution was advised there, they're likely doing it for the same reason but just putting a spin on it.

crossman47 · 07-05-2021 12:39PM

Russman wrote: »

Ahh come on, that's not even an apples to oranges comparison.
We can, hopefully, largely mitigate our potential deaths from the viral vector vaccines with a bit of rejigging of the scheduled rollout. A few weeks delay or some unused vaccines isn't the end of the world, its not ideal of course, and nobody anywhere wants this to go on longer than it has to, but we can't completely be fixated on speed to the detriment of safety.
I have no idea what level of risk or percentage fatalities etc with vaccines are deemed acceptable by the medical community, or what constitutes "safety", but I do think we have to trust their judgement.

You are defeating your own argument. A few weeks delay in administering vaccines (any vaccine) is more likely to cause some deaths than any effect of AZ. Its a question of risk assessment.

crossman47 · 07-05-2021 12:42PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

GPs will/are telling those in Cohort 7 they aren't vaccinating them

They'll then tell them to call the HSE at 1850 24 1850, and the HSE will then say they need to call their GP

It'll go around and around in circles and it's complete nonsense

The latest on Cohort 4 and 7 as of yesterday

Cohort 4 (People aged 16-69 and at very high risk of severe Covid-19)
Total in group: ~250,000

Total vaccines: 216,991 (+6,721)

Total with first vaccine: 210,694 (+6,223)

Total with second vaccine: 6,297 (+498)

84% of total half vaccinated (+2%)

2.5% of total fully vaccinated (+0.2%)

Cohort 7 (People aged 16-69 who have an underlying conditions that puts them at high risk of severe disease and death)
Total in group: ~350,000

Total vaccines: 1,420 (+70)

Total with first vaccine: 1,418 (+70)

Total with second vaccine: 2 (+0)

0.4% of total half vaccinated (+0%)

0% of total fully vaccinated (+0%)

So yes, Cohort 4 are almost done with at least one shot, but Cohort 7 are getting thrown under the bus

Its slow but they're not being thrown under a bus. Cohort 4 are at higher risk so are rightly being done first. GPs should not be opting out of doing Group 7 but some of them are getting abuse from people who feel they are a special case (some no doubt wanting to go on holiday).

Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

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