Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

astrofool · 30-04-2021 10:06AM

Russman wrote: »

But they're not saying they know better, they're effectively saying they have a different take on whatever the data is. Look at the range of age limits that different western countries have put on AZ, from none at all, to 20 to 65 to a total ban, and other numbers in between, all based on the same data. Presumably these are all competent national bodies that have come to various different conclusions. There's obviously a huge amount of judgement involved and I'm not saying NIAC are "right".

I've no issue if they came out and said exactly what it was, but really, would you want a million and one armchair/facebook experts telling them why they're wrong ?

I hope not but I think the politics of it will mean we'll ultimately end up missing the June target by a few weeks & having unused J&J shots come June /July. Government will "blame" the deliveries and the medical advice and most will accept it.

And I know it doesn't seem like it, but we're rapidly moving from the rollout with huge takeup phase to rollout where we need to encourage people to signup and get vaccinated.

Zipppy · 30-04-2021 10:08AM

Deleted User wrote: »

What he seemed to say was "We have 4 vaccines available to use", not that he was saying all vaccines would be used for the group and the plan on how to use them is being formulated over the weekend

I think the communications have been pretty clear..

All vaccines will be used on over 50s, there will be no 'delaying this group', full steam ahead,
Anything else is just speculation...
They cant rely on future deliveries so must proceed with what they have...

average_runner · 30-04-2021 10:11AM

Zipppy wrote: »

I think the communications have been pretty clear..

All vaccines will be used on over 50s, there will be no 'delaying this group', full steam ahead,
Anything else is just speculation...
They cant rely on future deliveries so must proceed with what they have...

Talks about doing over 40 and over 50 together now.
Things are ramping up nicely

snotboogie · 30-04-2021 10:12AM

emrys wrote: »

Paul Reid was interviewed this morning on Newstalk (just after 8AM) quite clear. Portal for 50 somethings opens next week, expect to get an appointment within two weeks of registering, all 4 vaccines to be used.

I for one am shocked that the government/HSE won't make a hard decision now to prevent issues a few months down the line!

Seriously, this will screw us unless they plan not to follow NIAC advice when they get to under 50's

seamus · 30-04-2021 10:12AM

32,362 doses done on Wednesday. This is lower than the previous Wednesday, but not by a lot. (34,978)

In comparison terms, we had a huge Monday & Tuesday though, so we're not "down". The Monday-Wednesday total for this week is 82,566. Last week it was 63,445.

Thursday & Friday were the big vaccination days last week, so hopefully that happens this week too.

IRISHSPORTSGUY · 30-04-2021 10:12AM

J&J delivery target for Europe starting to look grim

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1387891573002735618.html

revelman · 30-04-2021 10:13AM

Stephen Donnelly on RTE Radio 1 now saying that they are looking at doing the 50-59 and 40-49 age groups in parallel “in several weeks time”.

snotboogie · 30-04-2021 10:14AM

seamus wrote: »

32,362 doses done on Wednesday. This is lower than the previous Wednesday, but not by a lot. (34,978)

In comparison terms, we had a huge Monday & Tuesday though, so we're not "down". The Monday-Wednesday total for this week is 82,566. Last week it was 63,445.

Thursday & Friday were the big vaccination days last week, so hopefully that happens this week too.

Not too bad. I hope that tweet posted yesterday saying we'd get to between 140k and 160k this week is wrong. We are already at 82k!

stephenjmcd · 30-04-2021 10:14AM

Donnelly confirming nothing is decided, they'll be running the numbers over the weekend. All scenarios are on the table.

Every chance the groups run in parallel and no decisions made on what goes to which group

seamus · 30-04-2021 10:15AM

revelman wrote: »

Stephen Donnelly on RTE Radio 1 now saying that they are looking at doing the 50-59 and 40-49 age groups in parallel “in several weeks time”.

What Donnelly probably means is that they won't wait for the 50-59 group to finish before starting on the 40+ group. So the "parallel" bit will happen in several weeks time (end of May/Early June), but the 50+ group will still start registrations next week.

stephenjmcd · 30-04-2021 10:15AM

snotboogie wrote: »

Not too bad. I hope that tweet posted yesterday saying we'd get to between 140k and 160k this week is wrong. We are already at 82k!

Well that tweet was as per the HSE briefing where they said what their aim for the week was.

They could well go over it. They did last week, its quite possible.

revelman · 30-04-2021 10:16AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Donnelly confirming nothing is decided, they'll be running the numbers over the weekend. All scenarios are on the table.

Every chance the groups run in parallel and no decisions made on what goes to which group

Unless my ears are playing tricks on me, he specifically mentioned doing the 50-59 and 40-49 age groups in parallel.

revelman · 30-04-2021 10:17AM

seamus wrote: »

What Donnelly probably means is that they won't wait for the 50-59 group to finish before starting on the 40+ group. So the "parallel" bit will happen in several weeks time (end of May/Early June), but the 50+ group will still start registrations next week.

They will start registrations next week but it could still be 2-3 weeks before they start on the over fifties. By then more J&J should have come in.

stephenjmcd · 30-04-2021 10:18AM

revelman wrote: »

Unless my ears are playing tricks on me, he specifically mentioned doing the 50-59 and 40-49 age groups in parallel.

Yup and then caveated it by saying they're running the numbers this weekend and will plan accordingly.

Wouldn't go either way when asked about 50-59 being slower etc

stephenjmcd · 30-04-2021 10:20AM

Donnelly asked about the choice of vaccine and going to the back of the queue if you say no, says that's not his phrase but essentially yeah

Turtwig · 30-04-2021 10:21AM

is_that_so wrote: »

There are plenty of 50+ who would take issue at you calling them vulnerable! Some are in better health than people half their age.

There are. There are also plenty of people in cohorts 4 and 7 whom this better health and fitness applies to too. Doesn't change the result that they're in the population at much higher risk of severe disease. You can be fit as a fiddle and allergic to peanuts. The risk to you from peanuts compared to the sedentary, overweight person without that allergy is much higher. COVID is similar; the older you are the greater the risk. No matter how "healthy" you feel you are. That is not to say it doesn't help.

Tony H · 30-04-2021 10:43AM

just a little info for those over 60 , im nearly 61 and I got my appointment for next friday for the az in City Hall in Cork ,

my wife who's 61 has not got her appointment yet and will probably decline it anyway , another big row brewing as I try and change her mind once again ,
she tried to contact her doctor this morning and was told by receptionist that the HSE said not to even talk with anyone in the over 60's group , it would be nice for her to actually get some reassurance from her own GP but she's not allowed even that ,

Still no news on what happens to people who refuse astra zenaca but my wife is now determined to wait it out and get one of the so called safer vaccines .

Lucas Hood · 30-04-2021 10:43AM

34609 vaccines done Wednesday.

That's the difference between today's report total -yesterdays report total.
Numbers are updated periodically so this is best way of talking about them imo.

SJFly · 30-04-2021 10:48AM

I imagine behind the scenes the HSE are doing everything they can to pull in any possible AZ (and j&j) supplies. Doing 40s and 50s in parallel is a good call. Spending 4 weeks doing both cohorts, rather than 2 weeks each allows for the possibility of another bumper shipment to arrive, and hopefully less wasted vaccines.

is_that_so · 30-04-2021 10:57AM

Tony H wrote: »

just a little info for those over 60 , im nearly 61 and I got my appointment for next friday for the az in City Hall in Cork ,

my wife who's 61 has not got her appointment yet and will probably decline it anyway , another big row brewing as I try and change her mind once again ,
she tried to contact her doctor this morning and was told by receptionist that the HSE said not to even talk with anyone in the over 60's group , it would be nice for her to actually get some reassurance from her own GP but she's not allowed even that ,

Still no news on what happens to people who refuse astra zenaca but my wife is now determined to wait it out and get one of the so called safer vaccines .

They will be moved to the back of the list as per HSE policy so it could be July or later before she's reconsidered. From her perspective all we'll have then are mRNA the "safer" vaccines. TBH I'd let it go. I know a couple of complete refuseniks but figure they are not for changing and not inclined to damage relationships over this.

Ll31 · 30-04-2021 11:07AM

SJFly wrote: »

I imagine behind the scenes the HSE are doing everything they can to pull in any possible AZ (and j&j) supplies. Doing 40s and 50s in parallel is a good call. Spending 4 weeks doing both cohorts, rather than 2 weeks each allows for the possibility of another bumper shipment to arrive, and hopefully less wasted vaccines.

Or to describe it accurately given what we know about expected deliveries, vaccinating over 40s before over 50s goes against medical advice and puts a more vulnerable group at risk.

Supercell · 30-04-2021 11:10AM

I hope the government are not trying to be cute hoors by opening up registration to the 40's and 50's cohorts at the same time with the plan to delay actually vaccinating the 50's cohort until the J&J comes though while pushing on vaccinating the 40's with mRNA vaccines. That's putting all their eggs in one basket.
What if J&J is delayed further down the line?, its going to leave a lot of very angry people in a demographic that gets out and votes.

There is a mental health aspect to all of this too, we all have had enough of the lockdowns, i think that's pretty fair to say.
If AZ is the only choice (for the 50's cohort) that's another summer lost to a group that has less ahead of them than behind them. Personally speaking I find that prospect quite depressing, I'd take the J&J over that choice any day, the 60's cohort registrations are telling a story of their own, i don't see that as mysterious at all - many are hoping not to have to take the AZ by delaying and maybe get offered a J&J or mRNA vaccine, I know thats what I'd be doing if I were in that cohort. What's to loose, they've already likely lost most of their summer, again.

is_that_so · 30-04-2021 11:11AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Which is a silly policy, is the aim to beat Covid by vaccinating the vulnerable first, or is the aim to teach a lesson and potentially push persons away from all vaccines as those persons could go into a confirmation bias bubble on social media.

Resentment is a strong feeling to be pouring oil on top

You cannot run a mass vaccination programme based on people's whims and there is no pick and choose on vaccines. The system just moves on and it's a lot easier to pick up stragglers at the end. It's doubtful it'll account for a huge number in the end as many people seem to be happy to take whatever's given.

Zipppy · 30-04-2021 11:13AM

Supercell wrote: »

I hope the government are not trying to be cute hoors by opening up registration to the 40's and 50's cohorts at the same time with the plan to delay actually vaccinating the 50's cohort until the J&J comes though while pushing on vaccinating the 40's with mRNA vaccines. That's putting all their eggs in one basket.
What if J&J is delayed further down the line?, its going to leave a lot of very angry people in a demographic that gets out and votes.

There is a mental health aspect to all of this too, we all have had enough of the lockdowns, i think that's pretty fair to say.
If AZ is the only choice (for the 50's cohort) that's another summer lost to a group that has less ahead of them than behind them. Personally speaking I find that prospect quite depressing, I'd take the J&J over that choice any day, the 60's cohort registrations are telling a story of their own, i don't see that as mysterious at all - many are hoping not to have to take the AZ by delaying and maybe get offered a J&J or mRNA vaccine, I know thats what I'd be doing if I were in that cohort. What's to loose, they've already likely lost most of their summer, again.

Agreed...biggest down side of the AZ is the 16 weeks till second dose.
Let's hope J&J come through with lots and lots of doses..

duffman13 · 30-04-2021 11:14AM

I have absolutely zero love for the HSE but I do feel for them looking at the projected deliveries and the NIAC recommendations and trying to appease everyone as best they can. The issue is there are great arguments to be made for going either way with the over 50s but you have a large cohort of people who are going to be pissed one way or the other.
Danes arent using AZ but their approach is two pronged with a split once you get to 50s to prevent spread. Its too late for us now as we are committed to the age based roll out which is fair enough but interesting to see the way other countries are tackling the roll out.

10 B. People aged 55-59 (born between 1962 and 1966).

10 C. People aged 50-54 (born between 1967 and 1971).

10 D1. People aged 16-19 and 45-49 years (born 1972-1976 and 2002-2005).

10 D2. People aged 20-24 and 40-44 years (born 1977-1981 and 1997-2001).

10 D3. People aged 25-29 and 35-39 years (born 1982-1986 and 1992-1996).

10 D4. People aged 30-34 (born 1987-1991).

seamus · 30-04-2021 11:14AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Which is a silly policy, is the aim to beat Covid by vaccinating the vulnerable first, or is the aim to teach a lesson and potentially push persons away from all vaccines as those persons could go into a confirmation bias bubble on social media.

Resentment is a strong feeling to be pouring oil on top

It's a hard one to call; if people knew that by refusing AZ they would be offered Pfizer in short order, then we might see a significant number doing so. And it could be enough to derail the timeline of the whole programme. And therefore the goal of vaccinating the most vulnerable as quickly as possible is threatened.

The hope would be that by taking this "back of the line" stance, the vast majority will take AZ and so you achieve your goal of vaccinating the most vulnerable as quickly as possible.

If there was a mass movement encouraging over 60s to refuse AZ en masse, then the HSE would need to re-examine the policy and just take the hit.

is_that_so · 30-04-2021 11:14AM

Supercell wrote: »

I hope the government are not trying to be cute hoors by opening up registration to the 40's and 50's cohorts at the same time with the plan to delay actually vaccinating the 50's cohort until the J&J comes though while pushing on vaccinating the 40's with mRNA vaccines. That's putting all their eggs in one basket.
What if J&J is delayed further down the line?, its going to leave a lot of very angry people in a demographic that gets out and votes.

Over 50s are registering next week, over 40s will be a few weeks after that but will probably be vaccinated at the same time as some of the over 50s.

duffman13 · 30-04-2021 11:17AM

Zipppy wrote: »

Agreed...biggest down side of the AZ is the 16 weeks till second dose.
Let's hope J&J come through with lots and lots of doses..

The dose total is 12 weeks for over 60s and I havent seen the new guidance but presume it will be the same for over 50s. 16 weeks were for those who got it under the recommend age cohorts

Also dose one of AZ after 4 weeks is considered fully vaccinated from the announcement last night so therefore people will be free to move about after 4 weeks with AZ as opposed to mRNA vaccines which is 1-2 weeks after second dose so slightly quicker.

J&J, just deliver it all now please, save us the headache

stephenjmcd · 30-04-2021 11:19AM

Supercell wrote: »

I hope the government are not trying to be cute hoors by opening up registration to the 40's and 50's cohorts at the same time with the plan to delay actually vaccinating the 50's cohort until the J&J comes though while pushing on vaccinating the 40's with mRNA vaccines. That's putting all their eggs in one basket.
What if J&J is delayed further down the line?, its going to leave a lot of very angry people in a demographic that gets out and votes.

There is a mental health aspect to all of this too, we all have had enough of the lockdowns, i think that's pretty fair to say.
If AZ is the only choice (for the 50's cohort) that's another summer lost to a group that has less ahead of them than behind them. Personally speaking I find that prospect quite depressing, I'd take the J&J over that choice any day, the 60's cohort registrations are telling a story of their own, i don't see that as mysterious at all - many are hoping not to have to take the AZ by delaying and maybe get offered a J&J or mRNA vaccine, I know thats what I'd be doing if I were in that cohort. What's to loose, they've already likely lost most of their summer, again.

How are they losing their summer ? The vaccine benefit being given to people who get vaccinated kicks in earlier with both AZ & J&J than it would with Pfizer or Moderna.

Yes you've to still get your 2nd dose which for most vulnerable is 12 weeks later but you don't have to wait 12 weeks for the additional freedoms associated with vaccination.

That's already been clarified.

Considered vaccinated:

AZ - 4 weeks after dose 1
J&J - 2 weeks after your only dose
Pfizer - 1 week after dose 2 - 5 weeks total from dose 1
Moderna - 2 weeks after dose 2 - 6 weeks total

is_that_so · 30-04-2021 11:20AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Is the purpose of this vaccination campaign to run it for the laughs or is it to actually get the vulnerable vaccinated first?

Treatment of people who have understandable reservations in what could be perceived as a punishing manner is a recipe for disaster and will not achieve stated aims (if anything be counterproductive)

We should do what Germans done and let people accept whatever they want provided they sign a waver

No idea where you got the first idea from at all. It's Groups 1-7, then age, with NIAC's advice underpinning it. I really don't see this punishment angle here at all. The system is clear, if you don't want what's offered now they'll come back to you at the end. Remember that MVCs are not sweetshops nor the HSE Musgraves!

Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

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