The Flat is here 2021

RivetingRoger wrote: »

I'm unashamedly a jumps man, but, I have a grá for thr flat too.
Not to the same level at all, but still a genuine grá all the same.

I love 5f sprints. Battaash is one of my favourite horses in either code. Adore him.
Magical, just retired was probably my overall favourite horse in training.

Mogul is another personal favourite. Pure class.
Love is a star
. I am looking very much forward to the Guineas. The Derby falls on my birthday this year!

Mogul is going in the Dubai Sheema Classic on Saturday. He's 3rd favourite.

On a line through the placed horses he's superior to the Arc Winner Sottsass. A Japanese horse is favourite with Gosden's classy Mishrif 2nd favourite.

It's a headscratcher. Can't see Mogul being ready so he's hard to back.

tryfix wrote: »

Mogul is going in the Dubai Sheema Classic on Saturday. He's 3rd favourite.

On a line through the placed horses he's superior to the Arc Winner Sottsass. A Japanese horse is favourite with Gosden's classy Mishrif 2nd favourite.

It's a headscratcher. Can't see Mogul being ready so he's hard to back.

I'd rarely back AOB horses this early in the season
Interested to see how the Dundalk horses do over the first few weeks on the turf
Slattery ran a few last weekend

Speaking of Mogul, his half disgraced full brother Japan is still in training with O'Brien as a 5yo. How are they going to resurrect his career? Surely his best career move would have been off to the Coolmore NH division where he could cover 200+ mares a year at about €7,000 a pop. I suppose they aren't short of NH Stallions.

The Godolphin horses are all drugged up to their eyeballs so very hard to beat them out there.

Rugbymad2020 wrote: »

And the horse here aren’t???jockeys aswell

Out in a high class country like Dubai?

Are you sure?

Where do ye stand on the Santa Barbara hype? Has there ever been such a maiden winner jumping into such a short price favourite for the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket without taking a second race to confirm the promise.

The positives would be the stable comments that she's grown and is easily beating her workmates. Shades of Nashwan catching pigeons.

The negatives, any value evaporated a long time ago, the form of her win is moderate. If she has grown so much over the winter she will need to strengthen up into her frame. Aidan is full of hype about his horses so this weeks hype can be taken with more than a grain of salt.

Her breeding isn't a great help in understanding whether she's going to be ready to fulfil her promise. She's a half sister to 2 G1 winning milers, one a G1 winning Juvenile who wasn't ready to go better than 8th at Newmarket and bloomed again later in her 3yo career. The other a G1 winning miler who wasn't too ready early in his 3yo career.

Is a Camelot filly going to be ready to take a 1,000 Guineas on her 2nd or maybe 3rd career start? The last walk on water type hype filly to compare Santa Barbara to would be another beautifully bred O'Brien trained Camelot filly ( also a sibling to 2 G1 winners ) and hot Guineas favourite Goddess who was practically declared to be home and hosed in the 1,000 Guineas after one impressive 10L maiden win.

O'Brien gave Goddess the hype treatment and so did everyone else. The filly went backward in the betting after she failed to set the world on fire in subsequent starts. Also Goddess had a 10-12f pedigree, that's what you tend to get from Camelot.

Fair play to ye for getting on in time. Hope ye collect.

It's the Camelot part that makes me doubt the hype.

Remember Pink Dogwood, another reported superstar Camelot filly at home who couldn't live up to the hype on the track and she too was a full sibling to the G1 winner Latrobe who had won the previous year's Irish Derby winner.

After winning her maiden by 7L on her 3rd start, she started at 3/1 or much less in 4 straight G1s without winning any of them. In fairness she got to within a neck of winning the Epsom Oaks.

tryfix wrote: »

Where are ye at with the colts?

I'll keep it simple. I liked the way that St Mark's Basilica Won the Dewhurst and he seems to have enough speed to get the job done in the 2,000 at a reasonable price.

.

I hope you're right. I'm on St Marks Basilica at 33/1 since the day before the Dewhurst last year. Always thought he had loads of ability if he could put it all together from his first career start and backed him for the Guineas in the hopes it would work out well in the Dewhurst which it did.

tryfix wrote: »

Can't say that any of the Classic Trial winners at Leopardstown jumped out as potential Classic winners. Bolshoi Ballet looked well in control at the end, but he has a long way to go to improve to even place in a Classic.

The Derby picture re High Definition wasn't cleared up either. Overall his Beresford form didn't look any better by the end of racing today.

Bolger's Poetic Flare looks like he would be even better over further.

Donnacha O'Brien's string have been in poor form which helps explain the finishing order in the 1,000 Guineas Trial. How Shale started favourite with a weight penalty and her trainer out of form is a mystery.

So much for pedigrees, Joan Of Arc torched her own reputation today.

Thought Sir Lamorak was the best prospect on show there yesterday. Most years, those trials don't look up to much at the time but end up with a few good campaigners.

I liked the run of merchants quay in the 2000g trial. More of an eyecatcher that might have been missed.

deeks wrote: »

I hope you're right. I'm on St Marks Basilica at 33/1 since the day before the Dewhurst last year. Always thought he had loads of ability if he could put it all together from his first career start and backed him for the Guineas in the hopes it would work out well in the Dewhurst which it did.

My fancy ante post docket just went up in smoke - St Marks Basilica not declared

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Any thoughts on whether or not Lucky Vega will stay in the 2000?
Screams as overpriced based on his extremely unlucky running behind Wembley, Thunder Moon, Masters of the Sea, and St Marks Basilica.

He has some serious 2yo form, but he's been knocking around with 6f sprinters as a 2yo for a reason. He went back in trip from the 7f of the National Stakes to the 6f of the Middle Park. Middle Park horses don't tend to win 2,000 Guineas.


There's a few ways of looking at his pedigree. He is one of 5 siblings who have run for their dam. 4 of those including Lucky Vega have earned their best ratings at 6f. One of those siblings was best at 1m 3f, he was by Dawn Approach and had a DI of 1.00. Lucky Vega has a DI of 1.59 which puts him in the sprinter-miler category.

On balance it's not likely that he would be best over a stiff mile.

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

I was hoping you'd answer this one :pac: Thanks!

At least he has the speed to get involved :pac: There's no knowing until he runs, Jessica wouldn't fill ya with confidence about him staying.

kksaints wrote: »

Kentucky Derby on later tonight. Essential Quality is the favourite and he's unbeaten in five races

Churchill Downs not coming up on my Paddy Power....anyone know why?

deeks wrote: »

My fancy ante post docket just went up in smoke - St Marks Basilica not declared

All the more gutted now that he missed Newmarket. Thought that was very impressive considering he met quite a bit of barging early.

Slattsy wrote: »

You'd wonder why they missed Newmarket with him the way Wembley ran.

Either not ready or want him to stand in France I'd say

Slattsy wrote: »

Or, and maybe the most obvious answer; Wembley ran well below expectations.

The 2,000 Guineas was a messed up race won by horses drawn 4, 2, 3.

The winner Poetic Flare was beaten in France. Until there's more proof it would be wise to not take the 2,000 form too seriously.

EDIT: Poetic Flare gets his chance to prove his French form wrong in the Irish 2,000 and there's every chance that Bolger's bold move will be rewarded.