Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X Read OP For Mod Warnings

PintOfView · 11-04-2021 01:28PM

jd1983 wrote: »

The counties neighbouring Sweden also had very few restrictions in the past few years. The main difference is that they protected their nursing home residents better than Sweden and this was done without long lockdowns like in Ireland.
Ireland's death rate for over 65's is slightly higher than Sweden.
So to conclude, our lockdown measures caused massive grief without any disease prevention benefits.

If what you say is accurate, that "Ireland's death rate for over 65's is slightly higher than Sweden",
then that means that Sweden's death rate for under 65's is a good bit higher than Ireland
because their overall death rate is a good bit higher than us.

11-04-2021 01:30PM

PintOfView wrote: »

Sweden didn't have an official lockdown, however they still did most of the things we did, asked the population to do social distancing, limit numbers of social interactions, masks on public transport, etc.
Some of what they did was different to us, but they did have more people die than us (per head of population)

I was in Sweden recently and it's like night and day compared with Ireland. Save for a couple of people, no one wears a mask on public transport, cafés, bars and restaurants are packed. The only thing that was different about the cafés was yellow tape covering the odd table. But people sit together (I was surprised to read what you posted about the restriction on people sitting together in cafés in Sweden in another thread because I saw 4 or 5 people at tables sitting together), there are outdoor restaurants, and indoor, of course, there's a very relaxed and calm feeling in the air (no people jumping out of the way when you approach them on the foothpath) and life is pretty much normal there (large events are on hold, of course). And they key thing that people are asked to do certain things.

More people have died, but look at the cost of what's going on in Ireland. Babies have spent their whole lives in lockdown, children can't really do anything and have missed months of education, the economy in bits, society wrecked, huge numbers of people scared and frightened, daily tv ads further terrifying people, and no exit strategy. There's no level 0 in the 'living with covid plan'.

11-04-2021 01:31PM

PintOfView wrote: »

But maybe, by your logic, the other countries in Western Europe are "very different to" Sweden,
just like you say that Sweden is "very different to" its neighbours!!

Isn't this picture a bit more complicated that you think?

That's true, but people always compare Sweden with its neighbours, never with other countries in Western Europe.

Sharpyshoot · 11-04-2021 01:32PM

Sweden only wished it had or nphet.

11-04-2021 01:32PM

PintOfView wrote: »

And why would they continue with their current strategy once they get everyone vaccinated?

They might want to remain covid free, i.e. 0 cases.

But I don't think they will. It will be interesting to see what their strategy is post-vaccination.

Sharpyshoot · 11-04-2021 01:33PM

Graham wrote: »

Are we back to pretending somebody suggested this again?

I don’t know what you are presuming or suggesting.

jd1983 · 11-04-2021 01:33PM

PintOfView wrote: »

If what you say is accurate, that "Ireland's death rate for over 65's is slightly higher than Sweden",
then that means that Sweden's death rate for under 65's is a good bit higher than Ireland
because their overall death rate is a good bit higher than us.

Not necessarily, they have a much higher percentage of their population over 65. We had massive emigration from Ireland, meaning there's relatively few old people. This makes our death rate appear much better than it is. Very few young people anywhere in the world are dying from covid.

A significant proportion of Irish born people who died from covid, would have died in the US or UK. They wouldn't appear in our figures.

PintOfView · 11-04-2021 01:38PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I was in Sweden recently and it's like night and day compared with Ireland. Save for a couple of people, no one wears a mask on public transport, cafés, bars and restaurants are packed. The only thing that was different about the cafés was yellow tape covering the odd table. But people sit together (I was surprised to read what you posted about the restriction on people sitting together in cafés in Sweden in another thread because I saw 4 or 5 people at tables sitting together), there are outdoor restaurants, and indoor, of course, there's a very relaxed and calm feeling in the air (no people jumping out of the way when you approach them on the foothpath) and life is pretty much normal there (large events are on hold, of course). And they key thing that people are asked to do certain things.

More people have died, but look at the cost of what's going on in Ireland. Babies have spent their whole lives in lockdown, children can't really do anything and have missed months of education, the economy in bits, society wrecked, huge numbers of people scared and frightened, daily tv ads further terrifying people, and no exit strategy. There's no level 0 in the 'living with covid plan'.

Well, if that's what you saw there, it's interesting. What part of Sweden was it?

Why did we get a huge increase in covid cases just from socialising at Christmas, if packed bars and restaurants in Sweden don't facilitate transmission?

There has to be some explanation, if what you're saying is accurate, and someone needs to tell France and Germany that they don't need to do any of what they're doing at the moment!

Without quitting my job, and investigating all this first hand, I can't explain the differences you are portraying.
Why do you think bars and restaurants can be packed in Sweden without causing major spreading of the disease?

PintOfView · 11-04-2021 01:41PM

Deleted User wrote: »

They might want to remain covid free, i.e. 0 cases.

But I don't think they will. It will be interesting to see what their strategy is post-vaccination.

If everyone is vaccinated then the risks will reduce considerably, and the virus won't become an epidemic in the country, even if someone arrives infected with it.

It would be pretty strange if they maintained restrictions unnecessarily!

jd1983 · 11-04-2021 01:44PM

PintOfView wrote: »

Well, if that's what you saw there, it's interesting. What part of Sweden was it?

Why did we get a huge increase in covid cases just from socialising at Christmas, if packed bars and restaurants in Sweden don't facilitate transmission?

There has to be some explanation, if what you're saying is accurate, and someone needs to tell France and Germany that they don't need to do any of what they're doing at the moment!

Without quitting my job, and investigating all this first hand, I can't explain the differences you are portraying.
Why do you think bars and restaurants can be packed in Sweden without causing major spreading of the disease?

In Ireland there was massive pent up demand due to pubs being closed longer than any other country. Furthermore, there was very little immunity prior to December. This all happened just before the festival where younger people are most likely to be in contact with older relatives.
Instead of a 'flatten the curve' approach, we effectively implemented a 'heighten the curve' strategy. If pubs were open all last summer, there would have been a slower growth in the disease and therefore there would be more immunity for the winter season when covid was always expected to be worse

PintOfView · 11-04-2021 01:45PM

jd1983 wrote: »

Not necessarily, they have a much higher percentage of their population over 65. We had massive emigration from Ireland, meaning there's relatively few old people. This makes our death rate appear much better than it is. Very few young people anywhere in the world are dying from covid.

A significant proportion of Irish born people who died from covid, would have died in the US or UK. They wouldn't appear in our figures.

Ok, I don't have the numbers to hand, but I can see how the percentage of over 65's in the population would affect things, and I agree about mortality strongly correlating to age.

11-04-2021 01:51PM

PintOfView wrote: »

Well, if that's what you saw there, it's interesting. What part of Sweden was it?

Why did we get a huge increase in covid cases just from socialising at Christmas, if packed bars and restaurants in Sweden don't facilitate transmission?

There has to be some explanation, if what you're saying is accurate, and someone needs to tell France and Germany that they don't need to do any of what they're doing at the moment!

Without quitting my job, and investigating all this first hand, I can't explain the differences you are portraying.
Why do you think bars and restaurants can be packed in Sweden without causing major spreading of the disease?

I was in Stockholm. I too was surprised by how normal life was there because of the talk of restrictions in the papers. But what the papers call restrictions are in fact recommendations. But 'restrictions' sounds more dramatic than 'recommendations'. Just like 'mutants' sounds scarier than 'mutations'. Unfortunately, that's just how the modern media operate. Bad news sells.

I think it must be down to the approach, In Sweden people who don't have symptoms aren't tested (Dr Anders Tegnell talks about that in this interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBbWpo3gAL8). In Ireland it seems that anyone and everyone is tested. They don't seem to obsess over case numbers there. And I think an important thing to mention is the difference in mentality one encounters there. People appear to be very relaxed there. That is not to say that people are reckless, just that they are careful without sacrificing every other aspect of their lives. There's a balance. And the Government isn't scaring people with daily tv ads.

jd1983 has explained far better than I could why what happened in Ireland at Christmas happened.

Graham · 11-04-2021 01:53PM

Deleted User wrote: »

jd1983 has explained far better than I could why what happened in Ireland at Christmas happened.

Lots of people travelled and socialised spreading the virus.

11-04-2021 01:58PM

Graham wrote: »

Lots of people travelled and socialised spreading the virus.

About there being pent up demand, very little immunity, and the 'heighten the curve' strategy.

PintOfView · 11-04-2021 02:07PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I was in Stockholm. I too was surprised by how normal life was there because of the talk of restrictions in the papers. But what the papers call restrictions are in fact recommendations. But 'restrictions' sounds more dramatic than 'recommendations'. Just like 'mutants' sounds scarier than 'mutations'. Unfortunately, that's just how the modern media operate. Bad news sells.

I think it must be down to the approach, In Sweden people who don't have symptoms aren't tested (Dr Anders Tegnell talks about that in this interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBbWpo3gAL8). In Ireland it seems that anyone and everyone is tested. They don't seem to obsess over case numbers there. And I think an important thing to mention is the difference in mentality one encounters there. People appear to be very relaxed there. That is not to say that people are reckless, just that they are careful without sacrificing every other aspect of their lives. There's a balance. And the Government isn't scaring people with daily tv ads.

jd1983 has explained far better than I could why what happened in Ireland at Christmas happened.

Just as a matter of interest, when were you in Stockholm?

They do seem to be doing some testing, and their 7 day moving average has been increasing since early March.
See this Bloomberg article from 3rd March -> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-03/stockholm-hit-by-100-spike-in-virus-infections-in-just-3-weeks

Some quotes from that article
"Swedish health officials said Stockholm has succumbed to a resurgence of the pandemic, after infections soared 100% over the past three weeks.
“We have a third wave of transmissions -- it’s here now,” Johan Bratt, the acting health and medical care director for the Stockholm region, said at a press briefing on Wednesday."
BTW, that was a Wednesday at beginning of March.

11-04-2021 02:11PM

Maybe its mentioned earlier in this thread and apologies if it is.
Can I get domestic construction done in my house from tomorrow. I see some places it says domestic construction and in others domestic house building and there is a big difference between the 2.

Thanks

mille100piedi · 11-04-2021 02:22PM

I wonder why Japan has less then 10.000 death?and from what I know they didn't have a strict lockdown?the population density is high and is one of the country with oldest population

11-04-2021 02:23PM

PintOfView wrote: »

Just as a matter of interest, when were you in Stockholm?

They do seem to be doing some testing, and their 7 day moving average has been increasing since early March.
See this Bloomberg article from 3rd March -> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-03/stockholm-hit-by-100-spike-in-virus-infections-in-just-3-weeks

Some quotes from that article
"Swedish health officials said Stockholm has succumbed to a resurgence of the pandemic, after infections soared 100% over the past three weeks.
“We have a third wave of transmissions -- it’s here now,” Johan Bratt, the acting health and medical care director for the Stockholm region, said at a press briefing on Wednesday."
BTW, that was a Wednesday at beginning of March.

Late March.

But look at the difference in that messaging compared with this kind of stuff: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rochelle-walensky-cdc-chief-covid-concern/

"I'm going to pause here, I'm going to lose the script and I'm going to reflect on the recurring feeling I have of impending doom,"

In the UK the messaging from SAGE is similar to the above. Every other day it seems there's a doomsday prediction from SAGE, or from a member of SAGE.

They're testing, but they don't test people who don't have symptoms. And they don't panic or be "extremely concerned" about an increase in case numbers. That's not the case in other Western European countries. People seem to be terrified whenever there's an increase in case numbers.

FintanMcluskey · 11-04-2021 02:26PM

mille100piedi wrote: »

I wonder why Japan has less then 10.000 death?and from what I know they didn't have a strict lockdown?the population density is high and is one of the country with oldest population

Interestingly Japan has the one of the lowest obesity rates in the world

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/comment/low-obesity-japan/

GlobalData epidemiologists have shown similar variations in the total prevalence of obesity in men and women over the age of 18 years across the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan) in 2022 (Figure.1). The highest total prevalence was seen in the US, which had an approximate total prevalence of 40%. The lowest total prevalence was seen in Japan, at 4%.

Covid would be much less of a concern if obesity wasn’t as prevalent in many countries

https://www.worldobesityday.org/assets/downloads/COVID-19_and_Obesity-The_2021_Atlas.pdf

As we show in this report, increased bodyweight is the second greatest predictor of hospitalisation and a high risk of death for people suffering from COVID-19. Only old age rates as a higher risk factor.
The unprecedented economic costs of COVID-19 are largely due to the measures taken to avoid the excess hospitalisation and need for treatment of the disease. Reducing one major risk factor, overweight, would have resulted in far less stress on health services and reduced the need to protect those services from being overwhelmed.

_Kaiser_ · 11-04-2021 02:31PM

Graham wrote: »

Lots of people travelled and socialised spreading the virus.

Actually I believe the article posted a few pages back showed that a big part of the "surge" post-Christmas was people who caught it while in hospital for something else.

Here you go... https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/revealed-the-hospitals-where-patients-caught-covid-during-the-third-wave-of-the-pandemic-40298584.html

.. and that's not the full extent either as 4 of the 7 hospital groups haven't released their figures per that article.

mandrake04 · 11-04-2021 02:31PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Only if they move away from their current strategy. If they continue with their current strategy post-vaccination then they'll never be able to reopen to the rest of the world.

And their tourism and hospitality industries are ruined. But I do think Australia can bounce back if they change their strategy.

I thought Australia was closed to all tourists. I thought it was only Australian citizens who were allowed to enter the country.

Tourism industry is not too bad shape, all hospitality is open at near full capacity so they bringing in $$ rather than closing the doors and it being a total loss.

Melbourne /Victoria had a prolonged lockdown but other states largely escaped it, QLD had a couple of 3 day and WA had 5 day but it’s been fairly normal since last June in most of NSW.

There’s more Australians go holiday overseas every year than international visitors so although there is no planes of tourists arriving there’s none leaving either. I was on holiday over Easter and the area I went to was as busy as I have ever seen it, hotels were full and restaurants were full. Most people just stuck to their home state.

I would say QLD would be affected the most as they kept their state borders closed over xmas and then before Easter Brisbane went to lockdown for 3 days, they get a lot of overseas visitors but they get more from NSW and Victoria.

CalamariFritti · 11-04-2021 02:34PM

Graham wrote: »

Sweden had much higher death rates than their comparable neighbouring countries.

Not in Same as Ireland.

FYP

11-04-2021 02:37PM

mandrake04 wrote: »

Tourism industry is not too bad shape, all hospitality is open at near full capacity so they bringing in $$ rather than closing the doors and it being a total loss.

Melbourne /Victoria had a prolonged lockdown but other states largely escaped it, QLD had a couple of 3 day and WA had 5 day but it’s been fairly normal since last June in most of NSW.

There’s more Australians go holiday overseas every year than international visitors so although there is no planes of tourists arriving there’s none leaving either. I was on holiday over Easter and the area I went to was as busy as I have ever seen it, hotels were full and restaurants were full. Most people just stuck to their home state.

I would say QLD would be affected the most as they kept their state borders closed over xmas and then before Easter Brisbane went to lockdown for 3 days, they get a lot of overseas visitors but they get more from NSW and Victoria.

Thanks for that. I should've specified that I meant that those industries are badly hit from the point of view of there being no tourists, or very few, arriving. But it's great that they're not as badly hit as I thought they were. And that's an important point you make about tourists not leaving. I didn't consider that.

Is there any talk there as to what the approach will be post-vaccination? I've watched a few interviews, but it's not the same as being there on the ground.

11-04-2021 02:39PM

And just on Sweden again, compare their roadmap back to absolute normality (life is pretty much normal there already) with the Irish roadmap which doesn't actually lead to normal life, but rather the heavily restricted level 1:

https://www.thelocal.se/20210330/a-three-step-plan-when-and-how-sweden-hopes-to-lift-its-covid-19-restrictions/

https://www.gov.ie/en/campaigns/resilience-recovery-2020-2021-plan-for-living-with-covid-19/

PintOfView · 11-04-2021 02:42PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Late March.

But look at the difference in that messaging compared with this kind of stuff: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rochelle-walensky-cdc-chief-covid-concern/

"I'm going to pause here, I'm going to lose the script and I'm going to reflect on the recurring feeling I have of impending doom,"

In the UK the messaging from SAGE is similar to the above. Every other day it seems there's a doomsday prediction from SAGE, or from a member of SAGE.

They're testing, but they don't test people who don't have symptoms. And they don't panic or be "extremely concerned" about an increase in case numbers. That's not the case in other Western European countries. People seem to be terrified whenever there's an increase in case numbers.

I obviously haven't seen the messaging in Sweden, and the part of the US messaging you point to is fairly dramatic.
She also says ...
"I so badly want to be done, I know you all so badly want to be done, we're just almost there, but not quite yet. And so, I'm asking you to just hold on a little longer, to get vaccinated when you can, so that all of those people that we all love will still be here when this pandemic ends."

Basically she is trying to get people who are tiring of the restrictions to hold on a bit longer.
She should be in possession of a lot more of the facts that we are, and surely her advice is worth listening to?
It's not like she just wants people to be restricted for the sake of it!

11-04-2021 02:46PM

PintOfView wrote: »

I obviously haven't seen the messaging in Sweden, and the part of the US messaging you point to is fairly dramatic.
She also says ...
"I so badly want to be done, I know you all so badly want to be done, we're just almost there, but not quite yet. And so, I'm asking you to just hold on a little longer, to get vaccinated when you can, so that all of those people that we all love will still be here when this pandemic ends."

Basically she is trying to get people who are tiring of the restrictions to hold on a bit longer.
She should be in possession of a lot more of the facts that we are, and surely her advice is worth listening to?
It's not like she just wants people to be restricted for the sake of it!

Yes, but she could've said that without the 'impending doom' bit, or even worded 'impending doom' differently. I always think of what Professor Jay Bhattacharya said in an interview last year. He said that he was taught as a medical student that the most thing for a doctor or scientist to is not to sow panic or create fear.

PintOfView · 11-04-2021 03:07PM

Deleted User wrote: »

And just on Sweden again, compare their roadmap back to absolute normality (life is pretty much normal there already) with the Irish roadmap which doesn't actually lead to normal life, but rather the heavily restricted level 1:

https://www.thelocal.se/20210330/a-three-step-plan-when-and-how-sweden-hopes-to-lift-its-covid-19-restrictions/

https://www.gov.ie/en/campaigns/resilience-recovery-2020-2021-plan-for-living-with-covid-19/

The Swedish one is a journal article, written like any article, and much easier to read, etc.
The Irish one is a HSE document and has huge amounts of information, and is difficult to compare.
If you open the equivalent Swedish Health agency one it's a bit like more the Irish one, but a bit shorter.

Not sure what conclusion we can draw from the comparison

You say "life is pretty much normal there already"
Then why have they got restrictions in place to Sept 2021?

See here -> https://www.krisinformation.se/en/hazards-and-risks/disasters-and-incidents/2020/official-information-on-the-new-coronavirus/restriktioner-och-forbud
some extracts
- No more than eight people may be present at a public gathering or public event. The police has the right to cancel or dissolve an event that has more than eight attendees.
- If a private gathering is held at an event venue, in a meeting room and at other rented premises, a maximum of eight people are allowed to attend.
- 20 people can attend a funeral
- If you organise an event in violation of the ban, you may face a fine or prison sentence of up to six months.
- Public gatherings and events may have a maximum of eight participants. The Police can cancel or disband a public gathering or event with more participants.
- No alcohol can be served in pubs or restaurants between 8pm and 11am
- Restaurants can't serve food after 8.30pm
- Venues serving food and drink which are part of a shopping centre can serve no more than one person per table.

facehugger99 · 11-04-2021 03:08PM

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0411/1209125-court-quarantine/

Imagine having to mount a court challenge to see your dying father?

The only thing this mandatory quarantine is achieving, other than keeping Karen on Facebook happy that 'de Covid foreigners' are being kept out, is diverting public attention away from the fact that the biggest issue with Covid spread is within hospitals - Jesus, we can't have the public asking questions about that.

What a shameful embarrassment this country has become.

mandrake04 · 11-04-2021 03:09PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Thanks for that. I should've specified that I meant that those industries are badly hit from the point of view of there being no tourists, or very few, arriving. But it's great that they're not as badly hit as I thought they were. And that's an important point you make about tourists not leaving. I didn't consider that.

Is there any talk there as to what the approach will be post-vaccination? I've watched a few interviews, but it's not the same as being there on the ground.

Things are definitely not bad here, my brother lives in Ireland and he says it’s like living like a rat. I think if I was in Europe I would have necked myself by now so I’m glad I’m not.

The government here is considering opening up travel bubbles with parts of Asia until the majority of people are vaccinated, there’s been a delay in the vaccines as the AZ vaccine is not recommended for under 50s so Australia so the preferred vaccine is Pfizer so they will miss the completion by October ...luckily Pfizer has only a 3 week gap rather than 12 week so it could be worse. They are considering changes to travel and quarantine

https://www.9news.com.au/national/major-changes-to-international-travel-could-be-on-the-horizon-for-australia/769aba0f-bc71-40ba-82fd-f21eaa242117

I actually had my first Pfizer dose yesterday, I think there will be a clearer picture by August what’s happening regarding Travel but I’m not rushing to travel anyway, I think a slightly later delay is probably better as you don’t really know what surprises going happen ...could be spanner end up in the works yet I remember plenty of people saying last August there wouldn’t be a another lockdown and they had to eat those words twice now lol.

PintOfView · 11-04-2021 03:13PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0411/1209125-court-quarantine/

Imagine having to mount a court challenge to see your dying father?

The only thing this mandatory quarantine is achieving, other than keeping Karen on Facebook happy that 'de Covid foreigners' are being kept out, is diverting public attention away from the fact that the biggest issue with Covid spread is within hospitals - Jesus, we can't have the public asking questions about that.

What a shameful embarrassment this country has become.

Do you not see any value in quarantine for people arriving into Ireland?
If we had done this last April do you not think it would have made a difference?

(Just read that article there, and it would probably make sense for there to be discretion for such cases)

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X Read OP For Mod Warnings