2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Ush1 wrote: »

You'd be doing well to tell the difference between an aluminum and upvc window unless you're touching the window.

Getting wooden windows would be madness to me in what is a very damp climate we have, and I honestly don't think they look better.

each to their own but i know what looks better to me,

i have yet to see a decent sash window that wasnt made from wood.

The_Conductor wrote: »

Love to know who these people are.

There are 37,500 civil servants in Ireland- of whom 22.280 are based outside of Dublin (aka a majority). Just over 15k in Dublin.

Of the other 271,000 public sector employees - 106,000 are employed in the HSE in various roles at various locations around the country- or in Dublin. They're not easy to move around the place.

165k other public sector employees. Of these 98k are teachers/principals in schools- bringing us down to 67k

14,000 Gardai - now we're down to 53,000

10,000 in Army/Naval Services etc - now we're down to 43,000

27,000 Local Authority employees - we're down to 16,000

13,000 in Non-Commercial State Bodies - down to 3,000


20% of 300,000 odd is 60,000 employees- which would be the entirety of the civil service and all local authority employees- of whom over 40,000 aren't based in Dublin to begin with.

A 20% WFH does not equate with large numbers of new people moving out of Dublin at all- in fact, I'd suggest it may have negligible to no effect whatsoever on the numbers of public sector employees in Dublin.

don't be discrediting soundbite headlines with your reasoned analysis

Pussyhands wrote: »

I don't really see the impact this will have at all.

If you're in the civil service in Dublin, you're not gonna move to Mayo or Carlow.
.

Out of curiosity, why do you think this? I'd have thought that quality of life for a young family would be 10x higher somewhere like Waterford vs Dublin if you don't own your own home and your household income is sub €100k (maybe even higher).

I do wonder of all the people adamant that nobody would ever want to leave Dublin, how many are paying 50%+ of their after tax income on rent with zero prospect of ever owning a home. I suspect this might change your perspective.

givyjoe wrote: »

The vast majority of people will not be fully remote. Id wager 1 day office based is also highly improbably because well, what benefit does that give. Hubs as you say are also not likely for the vast majority of businesses, for obvious reasons, namely cost and scale. What matters for the property market is decisions the majority are going to make. Anyway, the point im making is essentially the same thing, a lot of people initially foolishly made long terms decisions without knowing what long term working arrangements they were going to have. I don't think we'll see a mass exodus, even with 2/3 days WFH.

Completely disagree with this, vast majority in IT and similar office setups will have remote working, big multinationals have already come out and said remote is the way forward and thats who the indigenous companies are competing with.

The very least will be a blended approach 1-2 days on the office and the rest remote, if a company especially in IT wants staff in full time, prepare to lose the talent, most IT staff already have one foot out the door at the best of times, most leave after two to three years if they havent been promoted.

Only option really is if ypu want your staff in the office full time to pay more than twitter and give better benefits, how likely is that?

I think a bigger issue is for all the smaller companies down the country who hae decent teams, now losung staff to the multinational as they can't compete on salary or benefits.

jill_valentine wrote: »

Yeah. I think this thread is consistently inclined to think of this stuff in terms of "Buying in Dublin vs Buying Elsewhere" when imho many, if not most would be FTBs are more likely to be pondering this question, as you say, "Renting in Dublin vs Buying Elsewhere."

Yep! We have TDs on €100k looking for pay increases due to lack of housing options. It really doesn't seem farfetched to me to think those on lower incomes might consider a move to a less expensive area.

"A TD on a €100,000 a year cannot afford to buy a modest three-bedroomed home in many parts of Dublin, the Fine Gael parliamentary party was told last week."

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/oh-councillors-will-get-their-50pc-pay-hike-all-right-40167207.html

I think the pay of civil servants is greatly exaggerated. The job security and pensions are fantastic, but it's not like 30 somethings entering it today would have their pick of family homes in Dublin. Personally I'd be gone like a shot to any of Galway/Waterford/Wexford if in their shoes and given the choice!

The Spider wrote: »

Completely disagree with this, vast majority in IT and similar office setups will have remote working, big multinationals have already come out and said remote is the way forward and thats who the indigenous companies are competing with.

The very least will be a blended approach 1-2 days on the office and the rest remote, if a company especially in IT wants staff in full time, prepare to lose the talent, most IT staff already have one foot out the door at the best of times, most leave after two to three years if they havent been promoted.

Only option really is if ypu want your staff in the office full time to pay more than twitter and give better benefits, how likely is that?

I think a bigger issue is for all the smaller companies down the country who hae decent teams, now losung staff to the multinational as they can't compete on salary or benefits.

In high demand sectors where employees can be fussy and pick and choose employers I think employers will find it difficult to use the stick of "ye're in the office full time lads just because we say so".

I feel like employers will have to demonstrate the value of the office and what having an office presence gives them - and there is a lot of value in the office.

But a hybrid model of 50:50 or 75:25 office and home will need some thought - there's no point bringing people into an office to go on zoom calls. Collaboration and team days will be the order of the day for sure but are you better off having those as off sites and ditching the office altogether?

There's a demand from people I know to get back in the office but how much of this is cabin fever from being at home versus versus lockdown cabin fever because the country is closed. Work from home in an open country will be far different to the WFH we have now.

As regards property, I find it difficult to see people making life decisions in such an uncertain climate and decamping en masse - pandemic has likely fast forwarded decisions by a few years but people decamping to belmullet with no connection to the and working in Google full time remote just seems off to me.

The_Conductor wrote: »

Love to know who these people are.

There are 37,500 civil servants in Ireland- of whom 22.280 are based outside of Dublin (aka a majority). Just over 15k in Dublin.

Of the other 271,000 public sector employees - 106,000 are employed in the HSE in various roles at various locations around the country- or in Dublin. They're not easy to move around the place.

165k other public sector employees. Of these 98k are teachers/principals in schools- bringing us down to 67k

14,000 Gardai - now we're down to 53,000

10,000 in Army/Naval Services etc - now we're down to 43,000

27,000 Local Authority employees - we're down to 16,000

13,000 in Non-Commercial State Bodies - down to 3,000


20% of 300,000 odd is 60,000 employees- which would be the entirety of the civil service and all local authority employees- of whom over 40,000 aren't based in Dublin to begin with.

A 20% WFH does not equate with large numbers of new people moving out of Dublin at all- in fact, I'd suggest it may have negligible to no effect whatsoever on the numbers of public sector employees in Dublin.

Source for the above here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_service_of_the_Republic_of_Ireland

Actually very good points there. But look at it another way.

If only a total of 8,000 workers between all the civil service and private companies embraced WFH to the fullest and left Dublin, that’s the equivalent of Google shutting up shop tomorrow.

What would be the impact on the Dublin property market if Google shut down tomorrow?

cnocbui wrote: »

Well This a remarkable turn around in attitude. I suggested earlier that people who can't afford to buy in Dublin should perhaps look outside of Dublin where housing is cheaper and i had my head bitten off. Now it's a great and sensible idea. :rolleyes:



https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=116673947&postcount=6470

Just to clarify - it's a great idea and sensible based on the reality on which we currently live. I don't think it's desirable that people are forced to do so, but that's the hand you've been dealt so you do what's best for your family.

I can advise my partner to not walk the streets alone at night and yet still advocate for a world where she theoretically could if she wanted to without being a hypocrite.

The_Conductor wrote:

The suggestion was that as a scheme it was a manner of freeing up housing in Dublin while simultaneously being a good step towards rebooting the economies of many remote towns in Ireland. My point- is that it means no such thing.

It's an excuse to give grants to a much favoured sector in the past
The publicans

I'd really question making the pub a workplace in Ireland

There's so many things that could go wrong

That looks like Public Sector rather than Civil Service. The point being there are doctors, professors etc. in the above. You'd need to be a AP on at least LS1 to be earning that. There is not an insignificant number of them but it's tiny compared to the number of COs and EOs earning less than 50K.

Browney7 wrote: »

In high demand sectors where employees can be fussy and pick and choose employers I think employers will find it difficult to use the stick of "ye're in the office full time lads just because we say so".

I feel like employers will have to demonstrate the value of the office and what having an office presence gives them - and there is a lot of value in the office.

But a hybrid model of 50:50 or 75:25 office and home will need some thought - there's no point bringing people into an office to go on zoom calls. Collaboration and team days will be the order of the day for sure but are you better off having those as off sites and ditching the office altogether?

There's a demand from people I know to get back in the office but how much of this is cabin fever from being at home versus versus lockdown cabin fever because the country is closed. Work from home in an open country will be far different to the WFH we have now.

As regards property, I find it difficult to see people making life decisions in such an uncertain climate and decamping en masse - pandemic has likely fast forwarded decisions by a few years but people decamping to belmullet with no connection to the and working in Google full time remote just seems off to me.

I agree with a lot of your points above, I do think cabin fever has set in and people looking for the office are looking for human contact full stop. When you can WFH and go to the local cafe for a cup of coffee, and local restaurants for lunch and the local pubs for a few pints in the evening I think it’ll be a different ballgame.

People who aren’t from Dublin, intinctivly react against the the high prices for rent and buying property and generally would be gone in a heart beat to buy something bigger and cheaper down the country or to another city in Ireland.

Younger people will still want the bright lights and city experience, but after a year or two of house sharing it gets old pretty quickly especially if you spent four years getting a degree, and are now sharing a house with strangers, and can’t eat your dinner in the evening because they insist on monopolising the kitchen.

Meanwhile there’s a guy you went to school with who left when he was 15 and got a job in the local factory, he now has a decent house he’s settled down and doing adult things like going out to dinner with his wife/fiancé, he’s also started saving money and is thinking about investing in another property.

You have a degree from trinity agood job in a multinational, you’re earning a lot more than your school mate but you can’t save, you can’t even sit down and watch what you want on tv, Dublin is sucking every penny out of your pocket.

Those guys will be gone like a bullet after a year or two in Dublin


On a side note I think people are getting the wrong end of the stick with the civil service going remote. When they go remote it normalises it for every other company in the private sector