2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

awec · 24-03-2021 12:15PM

fliball123 wrote: »

And now we have the big lads snapping up property left right and center and have the ability to soak up losses of not renting out some property in order to keep rents high..So yeah this is whats happening if the smaller landlord had been supported a bit more maybe there would be more competition in the rental sector

I am not convinced that when a small landlord sells that it's one of the REITs doing the buying. It wouldn't fit their portfolio. It's either being bought by an individual for their own use, or it's being bought by another small landlord.

REITs are increasing their stock by building more, or buying entire developments.

Mad_maxx · 24-03-2021 12:17PM

awec wrote: »

Yes I have never really bought the argument that Ireland suffers when it loses it's small, amateur landlords. This was an argument thrown about all the time, particularly when the AirBnB rules were being discussed.

"Don't do this or we'll sell!"

Ok, great. Please do.

may i ask how you feel about small time property owners who have their houses - apartments leased to the local authorities ?

i mean under long term leases , ten and twenty years , not referring to HAP

JimmyVik · 24-03-2021 12:30PM

Mad_maxx wrote: »

may i ask how you feel about small time property owners who have their houses - apartments leased to the local authorities ?

i mean under long term leases , ten and twenty years , not referring to HAP

I know people who had AIRBnbs doing that now. Leasing to the council for 20 years. I know of one where the neighbors would all cry with relief and joy, if it went back to being an AirBnb. The tenant the council gave it to (and their buddies) has them all looking to move. Some owners have put their up for sale. And the council, who put the creep into the apartment in the first place beside them, want to buy them. You couldnt make it up.

christin · 24-03-2021 12:37PM

Interesting podcast from David McWilliams on house prices at the moment echoes what some people said on this forum already
"Current market has no value for money, very few amounts of bad property, sellers don't want to list houses as there are no physical viewings...People are panicking and current market is a rerun of 2005, 2006"
Cease and desist. Get out of the housing market right now, plus the 5 fundamental ways cities are changing on Castbox. Check out this episode! https://castbox.fm/vb/366562479

fliball123 · 24-03-2021 12:39PM

awec wrote: »

I am not convinced that when a small landlord sells that it's one of the REITs doing the buying. It wouldn't fit their portfolio. It's either being bought by an individual for their own use, or it's being bought by another small landlord.

REITs are increasing their stock by building more, or buying entire developments.

No maybe not but you cannot deny the fact that over the last 5 years the % of properties that were owned by small landlords has decreased and in the same period the amount of properties that REITS/Vultures control has increased, it may not be a 1 for 1 but there is a correlation there and the knock on effect is that property can be left empty to keep rents high

PropQueries · 24-03-2021 12:45PM

fliball123 wrote: »

No maybe not but you cannot deny the fact that over the last 5 years the % of properties that were owned by small landlords has decreased and in the same period the amount of properties that REITS/Vultures control has increased, it may not be a 1 for 1 but there is a correlation there and the knock on effect is that property can be left empty to keep rents high

But isn't that expected given we didn't have reits etc. 10 years ago.

Given that small landlords were c. 100% of the market 10 years ago, it only makes sense that the percentage share of small landlords in the market has fallen in percentage terms as the reits etc. entered the market as we can't go above a total of 100%.

The real question is has the actual supply of rental properties decreased?

fliball123 · 24-03-2021 12:47PM

christin wrote: »

Interesting podcast from David McWilliams on house prices at the moment echoes what some people said on this forum already
"Current market has no value for money, very few amounts of bad property, sellers don't want to list houses as there are no physical viewings...People are panicking and current market is a rerun of 2005, 2006"
Cease and desist. Get out of the housing market right now, plus the 5 fundamental ways cities are changing on Castbox. Check out this episode! https://castbox.fm/vb/366562479

McWilliams is no profit in fact he gets more wrong than right. He neglects to say that those who are selling will also be buying (trading up/down) so its a zero sum game and the amount of demand will trump supply for a long ongoing period or until we can build enough houses. Throw in we have seen immigration inward on the + side for the last 6 years and now the government have told the world that they are changing how refugees are treated here and will only take 4 months to process them instead of 8 years. We are going to have a hell of spike in migration to Ireland once covid is gone.

He also spouted in 2017 that we were in a bubble and in 2021 looking back he got that wrong as well as prices bumped along and did not go up in any great shape or form. Also there is no easy access to credit, ask anyone trying to get a mortgage the hoops you have to jump through are crazy and the central bank rules have keep prices in check. 2005/6 banks were given money out like confetti, 110% mortgages anyone.. The is not the same in 2021

fliball123 · 24-03-2021 12:54PM

PropQueries wrote: »

But isn't that expected given we didn't have reits etc. 10 years ago.

Given that small landlords were c. 100% of the market 10 years ago, it only makes sense that the percentage share of small landlords in the market has fallen in percentage terms as the reits etc. entered the market as we can't go above a total of 100%.

The real question is has the actual supply of rental properties decreased?

Well the proof is in the pudding, (and I said 5 years not 10) you are the one on here spouting about all the vacant property and how you want a vacant property tax on it yet you dont see the correlation to the REITS/Vultures coming in and taking a very high % of the rental market and being able to afford to leave a property vacant in order to preserve higher rents..Now do you think a small landlord could afford to do this. So while I agree they were not here 10 years ago, how do they fare out over the last 5 years?

Do you know if the amount of proeprty for rent has decreased? I have not been tracking this? We all know the supply for sale is down a hell of a lot. This has the knock on effect as well of more people having to rent as supply for sale is p1ss poor

Hulk Hands · 24-03-2021 01:06PM

Plenty of opinions from people here and on the other thread on McWilliams opinion who clearly didn't listen to the podcast. The other thread is full of outrage that "McBoofball" is telling people to step out of the market for half a decade until they're old and grey. Suggestions that he has something to gain from asking people to wait (what exactly?).

He's simply saying that people aren't selling due to Covid, the only houses coming on stream are necessary sales due to elderly deaths and the construction ban is preventing new builds. He advised not to buy in this mini bubble period where there's nothing new coming to the market, and once Covid subsides (in the next few months) the market will return to some sort of early 2020 normal where demand doesn't outweigh supply by a ridiculous factor. He just said don't do something stupid in the next 6 months while there are no viewings allowed. He's not trying to tank the market until 2026

MacronvFrugals · 24-03-2021 01:09PM

Great jobs news today!

"Intel to create 1,600 Irish jobs under global expansion plan"

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/intel-to-create-1-600-irish-jobs-under-global-expansion-plan-1.4518396

fliball123 · 24-03-2021 01:13PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Plenty of opinions from people here and on the other thread on McWilliams opinion who clearly didn't listen to the podcast. The other thread is full of outrage that "McBoofball" is telling people to step out of the market for half a decade until they're old and grey. Suggestions that he has something to gain from asking people to wait (what exactly?).

He's simply saying that people aren't selling due to Covid, the only houses coming on stream are necessary sales due to elderly deaths and the construction ban is preventing new builds. He advised not to buy in this mini bubble period where there's nothing new coming to the market, and once Covid subsides (in the next few months) the market will return to some sort of early 2020 normal where demand doesn't outweigh supply by a ridiculous factor. He just said don't do something stupid in the next 6 months while there are no viewings allowed. He's not trying to tank the market until 2026

Who the hell is he to tell anyone to do anything. People need to look at their own circumstances in order to buy or sell. He has been shouting not to buy since 2017 and if anyone has listened to him they will have now paid 4 years of rent and prices have gone up. Thanks Dave

JimmyVik · 24-03-2021 01:13PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Plenty of opinions from people here and on the other thread on McWilliams opinion who clearly didn't listen to the podcast. The other thread is full of outrage that "McBoofball" is telling people to step out of the market for half a decade until they're old and grey. Suggestions that he has something to gain from asking people to wait (what exactly?).

He's simply saying that people aren't selling due to Covid, the only houses coming on stream are necessary sales due to elderly deaths and the construction ban is preventing new builds. He advised not to buy in this mini bubble period where there's nothing new coming to the market, and once Covid subsides (in the next few months) the market will return to some sort of early 2020 normal where demand doesn't outweigh supply by a ridiculous factor. He just said don't do something stupid in the next 6 months while there are no viewings allowed. He's not trying to tank the market until 2026

Funny that. I said EXACTLY the same myself a couple of weeks ago here.
Im not on the radio though.

fliball123 · 24-03-2021 01:15PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Great jobs news today!

"Intel to create 1,600 Irish jobs under global expansion plan"

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/intel-to-create-1-600-irish-jobs-under-global-expansion-plan-1.4518396

shush this is not what the doomsdayers want to hear will you stop

Villa05 · 24-03-2021 01:19PM

fliball123 wrote: »

I would go back even further 2017 - 2019 superstar economists like David McWilliams first show states that we are back in a bubble even do we had no easy access to credit and this is what is needed to inflate a bubble and in hindsight he was proven wrong, but a lot of people would listen to him and make the decision to not buy.

Are you confusing stating a market is in a bubble and saying a market is due to crash.

REITs and Government have acess to free credit, REITS benefit from irrational taxation systems which become priced into property.

The overwhelming majority were predicting a fall this time last year, They did not fall because of this activity in the market

Bubbles have many causes

Three chief conditions contribute to irrational exuberance and subsequent asset inflation:

Low-interest rates: They make it easy to borrow money cheaply, which boosts investment spending.1 However, investors cannot receive a good return on their investments at these rates, so they move their money into higher-yield, higher-risk asset classes, spiking asset prices.2

Demand-pull inflation:This occurs when buyers' demand for an asset exceeds the available supply of that asset. As asset prices rise, everyone wants to get in on the profits.3

Asset shortage: This is when investors think that there is not enough of a given asset to go around. Such shortages make asset bubbles more likely because the imbalance between supply and demand leads prices to appreciate beyond the asset's value

fliball123 · 24-03-2021 01:24PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Are you confusing stating a market is in a bubble and saying a market is due to crash.

REITs and Government have acess to free credit, REITS benefit from irrational taxation systems which become priced into property.

The overwhelming majority were predicting a fall this time last year, They did not fall because of this activity in the market

Bubbles have many causes

Three chief conditions contribute to irrational exuberance and subsequent asset inflation:

Low-interest rates: They make it easy to borrow money cheaply, which boosts investment spending.1 However, investors cannot receive a good return on their investments at these rates, so they move their money into higher-yield, higher-risk asset classes, spiking asset prices.2

Demand-pull inflation:This occurs when buyers' demand for an asset exceeds the available supply of that asset. As asset prices rise, everyone wants to get in on the profits.3

Asset shortage: This is when investors think that there is not enough of a given asset to go around. Such shortages make asset bubbles more likely because the imbalance between supply and demand leads prices to appreciate beyond the asset's value

NO I am saying Mcwilliams in his first new rassle dassle show back in 2017 was saying we are back in a bubble

awec · 24-03-2021 01:27PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Great jobs news today!

"Intel to create 1,600 Irish jobs under global expansion plan"

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/intel-to-create-1-600-irish-jobs-under-global-expansion-plan-1.4518396

Stripe announced 1000 jobs in Ireland last week too I think.

Claw Hammer · 24-03-2021 01:28PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

He's simply saying that people aren't selling due to Covid, the only houses coming on stream are necessary sales due to elderly deaths and the construction ban is preventing new builds.

Funny that1. Two of my neighbours are sellig, one moving up market, one moving down. Both say they will rent until the find a new house.

K.Hawksworth · 24-03-2021 01:30PM

awec wrote: »

Stripe announced 1000 jobs in Ireland last week too I think.

Yep, and Workday announced 400 last week also.

awec · 24-03-2021 01:34PM

K.Hawksworth wrote: »

Yep, and Workday announced 400 last week also.

3000 in a week or so, must be a record.

JimmyVik · 24-03-2021 01:35PM

Where will they all live?

cnocbui · 24-03-2021 01:37PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Great jobs news today!

"Intel to create 1,600 Irish jobs under global expansion plan"

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/intel-to-create-1-600-irish-jobs-under-global-expansion-plan-1.4518396

Sounds a bit weird - the bit about over the three years to the end of 2021. I thought it was already 2021. So they have been secretly investing 2.5B a year since early 2019? And this didn't create any jobs worth mentioning, but now suddenly 1600 will be created all of a sudden? Also, the details will be available by the end of this year for something that has already happened?

Do you suppose they meant 2023?

The_Conductor · 24-03-2021 01:39PM

Being the last native English speaking country, with a common law legal system in Europe- is going to stand to our benefit, come what may, when it comes to choosing where to locate new employees. The other aspect is of course the manner in which companies in particular sectors tend to group together- so we have a critical mass of highly skilled workers available to suit different groups of industries.

Ireland has a lot going for it. We have many many hurdles ahead of us, mostly financial in nature- but we also have many resources, including our people, that we can uniquely draw on, to plaster over some of the more egregious cracks in our business model, which is going to be forced to change in the near future.

In 2019 the AO competition run by the Public Appointment Service for AO Finance Officer- had all participants give a 10 minute presentation on the opportunities and threats facing Ireland in the context of a global economy, with a particular focus on taxation. It is not something new and it is not something that is being ignored, rather it is an evolving situation that we are all going to have to subscribe to.

We have a lot more going for us than a lot of people may openly acknowledge- however, we also have some fairly unique threats that we are going to have to decide how we wish to mitigate.

The_Conductor · 24-03-2021 01:40PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Where will they all live?

Presumably south of the M50- though a lot of them would naturally like to live in the greater Lucan/Leixlip/Maynooth/Kilcock areas.

cnocbui · 24-03-2021 01:41PM

awec wrote: »

Stripe announced 1000 jobs in Ireland last week too I think.

They better double down on providing social housing within Dublin before there is an influx of people who will drive up housing prices /s

Zenify · 24-03-2021 01:41PM

awec wrote: »

3000 in a week or so, must be a record.

our unemployment rate is also a record I'd say.

NickNickleby · 24-03-2021 01:47PM

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Funny that1. Two of my neighbours are sellig, one moving up market, one moving down. Both say they will rent until the find a new house.

Well, if I was considering selling, I'd probably put my house up now, while the madness exists. The cost of renting thereafter would probably be WELL offset by the current mad prices apparently being achieved.

Hopefully the madness subsides by summer. In which case, both your neighbours will benefit from a falling market (having benefitted from a mad market) - and the same will apply to those currently struggling to get a property. I really hope so.

cnocbui · 24-03-2021 01:48PM

The_Conductor wrote: »

Being the last native English speaking country, with a common law legal system in Europe- is going to stand to our benefit, come what may, when it comes to choosing where to locate new employees. The other aspect is of course the manner in which companies in particular sectors tend to group together- so we have a critical mass of highly skilled workers available to suit different groups of industries.

Ireland has a lot going for it. We have many many hurdles ahead of us, mostly financial in nature- but we also have many resources, including our people, that we can uniquely draw on, to plaster over some of the more egregious cracks in our business model, which is going to be forced to change in the near future.

In 2019 the AO competition run by the Public Appointment Service for AO Finance Officer- had all participants give a 10 minute presentation on the opportunities and threats facing Ireland in the context of a global economy, with a particular focus on taxation. It is not something new and it is not something that is being ignored, rather it is an evolving situation that we are all going to have to subscribe to.

We have a lot more going for us than a lot of people may openly acknowledge- however, we also have some fairly unique threats that we are going to have to decide how we wish to mitigate.

A commerce spokesman representing US companies based in Ireland has previously complained to the Irish government about the excessive costs and complexities of the Irish legal system calling them a notable disincentive, so I am not sure the legal system is exactly an attraction.

WacoKid · 24-03-2021 01:52PM

christin wrote: »

Interesting podcast from David McWilliams on house prices at the moment echoes what some people said on this forum already
"Current market has no value for money, very few amounts of bad property, sellers don't want to list houses as there are no physical viewings...People are panicking and current market is a rerun of 2005, 2006"
Cease and desist. Get out of the housing market right now, plus the 5 fundamental ways cities are changing on Castbox. Check out this episode! https://castbox.fm/vb/366562479

The point I took from it is that he is saying you will pay the highest price for lowest quality at present. After been looking to move I agree with this. If somebody is willing to buy understanding the current market then fine. His advice was don't buy.

K.Hawksworth · 24-03-2021 01:58PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Where will they all live?

All 3 companies are known to pay well so they probably won't have too much trouble sourcing accommodation. That's assuming none of the 3,000 live here already, which a lot probably do.

Pelezico · 24-03-2021 02:04PM

cnocbui wrote: »

A commerce spokesman representing US companies based in Ireland has previously complained to the Irish government about the excessive costs and complexities of the Irish legal system calling them a notable disincentive, so I am not sure the legal system is exactly an attraction.

But our people are the beat educated in the world according to Irish teacherr unions. That should assist us greatly.

And the craic is great in Ireland. Everyone loves the Irish. We are uniquely placed.

Where will all these people live though? Now that is a problem. We can always import construction workers but they need housing too.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Comments

2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1