2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

woejus · 23-03-2021 10:38PM

TheSheriff wrote: »

Serious question; Are you Neutralguy?

spaces ! after ! the ! many ! exclamation ! marks !

23-03-2021 10:46PM

If I could stand in Dublin city center in 2007 ant tell everybody that next year for many of you will be worst in your life !?
Nobody would not believe me.More,everybody would call me sick and stupid.
Same here again.
People are blind and never learn.

In 2016 I came trough the company name Seatek .This is commercial company which getting paid by government for employing people on job seeker benefit.They does not care what you want they simply take your jobseeker alowance of once you refuse job offer
That how Ireland came to full employment before Covid.
My social welfare alowance been canceled because I refuse job offer for minimum wage half of which I had spend for travel.I got job very quick and was working without day of because got one more .

Due with money shortage and high level of unemployment this gonna repeated again.There will be massacre ! Many people will leave houses because will not have money for rent.That one of the reasons why prices will down.

cnocbui · 23-03-2021 10:53PM

bubblypop wrote: »

Just one little example, in 1998 I started my career in Dublin, a house could be bought for approx twice the starting salary, a 3 bed semi. Now, a 3 bed semi costs over 10 times the starting salary.
So, it is hardly comparable

Remarkable. I hope you snapped one up In 1998

In 1998 we had trouble finding something to buy near Limerick, choices were few and the market was hot.

yagan · 23-03-2021 11:02PM

Deleted User wrote: »

If I could stand in Dublin city center in 2007 ant tell everybody that next year for many of you will be worst in your life !?
Nobody would not believe me.More,everybody would call me sick and stupid.
Same here again.
People are blind and never learn.

I was at the coalface of property development back in 06/07 when the signs of reversal were starting to show, but dare mention doubt and I'd be hounded by family, friends and colleagues. I returned to the property development business in Dublin two years ago and before covid finance heads were reckoning peak crane was going to be 2020, early 2021.

I dropped out to look after elderly relatives when Covid arrived but from talking with contacts even some apartment projects that had reached foundation level were mothballed and all effort was going towards getting anything near half finished to market ASAP. Even if not every business embraces WFH the cost savings will make blended working a reality and demand for office space and beds in the city was going to be challenged.

Plus I think we're going to see a major hit on transatlantic tourism just on travel insurance hikes, another downward pressure on bed demand.

Hubertj · 23-03-2021 11:20PM

So can anyone advise on the accuracy of the construction costs calculator on the SCSI? Rough calculation to add in 10% margin for error?

https://scsi.ie/consumer/build/

This could be lovely.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/ref-929-site-at-ohermong-caherciveen-kerry/4490431

hi! · 24-03-2021 01:27AM

cnocbui wrote: »

Spare me. You can buy apartments in limerick for 60-70K. FTBs in capital cities of countries have never had it particularly easy. If you can't afford capital city prices, consider moving to somewhere cheaper. FTB's wanting turn-key new-builds in a capital city whinging about un affordability should maybe do a rethink. I'll bet none of them own a mobile phone thats older than 3 years.

Sick of hearing this move somewhere else comment constantly being thrown around. To have a functioning city you need people to work in them and therefore live near them. I’m a nurse working in a Dublin hospital- what do you suggest I do and every other person like me? Leave? Who will staff the hospitals? I’m not even trying to buy in Dublin but a commuter county and still can’t afford it. I’d like to have some sort of quality of life and not have an hour long commute after 13 hour shifts.
Oh and I bought my phone in 2017 so it’s 4 years old

cnocbui · 24-03-2021 03:31AM

I didn't mean to suggest that every FTBer could or should move. If a certain proportion did so it would take pressure off the constrained supply and should help reduce demand and prices.

Unaffordable' Auckland forces teacher out.....He said they began looking in places like Dunedin and realised there were homes that were affordable for them in the regions - just not in Auckland.

"I'm lucky I have the option of being a teacher that I can move from city to city and retain my pay rate. Most individuals who work in Auckland have no option."

A study by Massey University Institute of Education tutor, Graham Jackson, found an existing problem of older teachers nearing retirement and low numbers of new teachers joining the profession to replace them was being exacerbated in Auckland by young teachers moving out of the city because it's unaffordable.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/85433287/unaffordable-auckland-forces-teacher-out

And the same thing of course applied to nurses, police and others.

Same in London.

London Mortgage Affordability

Across all eight chosen public sector professions (NHS GP Doctor, Firefighter, Police Officer, Social Worker, Secondary School Teacher, Primary School Teacher, NHS Nurse (Registered Nurse), and Military Soldier) none were able to afford a mortgage in London.

Even though the London weighting allowance was added to our front-line heroes, they were still unable to buy a London property.

However, the OnlineMortgageAdvisor team understood that mortgages are usually achieved with a second income. Finding the average London salary of £34,473, they used this to determine the potential for a joint mortgage and still it proved unattainable.

https://www.wealthandfinance-news.com/homeless-heroes-87-of-public-sector-workers-cant-afford-a-mortgage-in-the-uk/

Perhaps your union needs to have a little chat with the government about why it's providing 'social' housing to ne're do wells and migrants so they can live in Dublin instead of shipping them out to somewhere cheaper and following London's example:

Key workers will be first in the queue for thousands of new homes being built across London, the mayor of London has said.

NHS staff, police officers, firefighters, transport workers and teachers will be given priority access to buy or rent homes below market rates.

London mayor Sadiq Khan said recognising the “service and sacrifice” would allow key workers to “put down roots” and was the “very least they deserve”.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/londons-key-workers-priority-affordable-housing_uk_604a7facc5b65bed87d93583

My phone is 11 years old.

24-03-2021 07:34AM

<SNIP>

JimmyVik · 24-03-2021 08:39AM

bubblypop wrote: »

Just one little example, in 1998 I started my career in Dublin, a house could be bought for approx twice the starting salary, a 3 bed semi. Now, a 3 bed semi costs over 10 times the starting salary.
So, it is hardly comparable

Around then it was still more common to buy a house on one wage.
Thats about the time the two salary buyers started to really lean on the housing market.

Now its 99% certain that there will be 2 wages buying a house.

JimmyVik · 24-03-2021 08:42AM

Deleted User wrote: »

If I could stand in Dublin city center in 2007 ant tell everybody that next year for many of you will be worst in your life !?
Nobody would not believe me.More,everybody would call me sick and stupid.
Same here again.
People are blind and never learn.

In 2016 I came trough the company name Seatek .This is commercial company which getting paid by government for employing people on job seeker benefit.They does not care what you want they simply take your jobseeker alowance of once you refuse job offer
That how Ireland came to full employment before Covid.
My social welfare alowance been canceled because I refuse job offer for minimum wage half of which I had spend for travel.I got job very quick and was working without day of because got one more .

Due with money shortage and high level of unemployment this gonna repeated again.There will be massacre ! Many people will leave houses because will not have money for rent.That one of the reasons why prices will down.

What did they say when you stood in Dublin City Center telling them.
Did you follow youw own advice and get yourself ready to buy a few apartments for €50k in the following years.
You must be loaded now.

JimmyVik · 24-03-2021 08:43AM

Hubertj wrote: »

So can anyone advise on the accuracy of the construction costs calculator on the SCSI? Rough calculation to add in 10% margin for error?

https://scsi.ie/consumer/build/

This could be lovely.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/ref-929-site-at-ohermong-caherciveen-kerry/4490431

Would you get planning though if you arent from the area.
You would if you were building a huge housing estate on it

Villa05 · 24-03-2021 08:56AM

cnocbui wrote:

I didn't mean to suggest that every FTBer could or should move. If a certain proportion did so it would take pressure off the constrained supply and should help reduce demand and prices.

Sharing stories of dysfunction from other cities across the globe does not really justify continuing dysfunction in our own

These stories point to a global issue in the sustainability of house prices indicating a bubble which is neither good for buyers or owners and another avoidable mess for taxpayers to clean up in the future as well as their excessive debts

24-03-2021 09:03AM

cnocbui wrote: »

Remarkable. I hope you snapped one up In 1998

In 1998 we had trouble finding something to buy near Limerick, choices were few and the market was hot.

Sarcasm?
I'm just trying to point out that it is not the same for ftb now. Yes, it wasn't easy years ago, but it's almost impossible now. Your just very dismissive of the problems for younger people starting out now.
I'm talking about Dublin here, btw

fliball123 · 24-03-2021 10:50AM

Villa05 wrote: »

I thought we had established that on this thread. Buyers are competing against a government using their money plus investment trusts who pay no tax on profits. Buyers are cannon fodder

There is no fair market

This is banana rebublic yet again

This is what happens when the government are essentially backed into a corner for the guts of 25 years successive governments have not built enough social housing, now the lefties and Sinn Fein are making serious gains and the panic has now set in and the government are competing to buy houses to make it look like they are fighting homelessness and unfortunately and I said this as far back as 7/8 years ago on a thread on this site. Irish people buying a house are now competing with everyone on the globe to buy houses here. You no longer have to be living here to see a place you like and to bid on and with the rental returns that were been given back then it was attractive and rents have only gone up and low and behold a couple of years later REITS and vulture funds are the dominant players in the rental market. Not sure how they get the gini back in the bottle now. I would be looking at taxing big companies who earn more than say 1 million a year paying 50% of it back to the country.

fliball123 · 24-03-2021 10:56AM

Marius34 wrote: »

Look at FTB buyers view, who stuck paying high rents.
2019 it was worth to wait because of lots of uncertainty around Brexit.
2020 it was worth to wait because of Recession.
2021 it still is worth to wait because of low supplies.

You see the problem? Sometimes you just need to make a move, we don't know if it will get any better any time soon.

I would go back even further 2017 - 2019 superstar economists like David McWilliams first show states that we are back in a bubble even do we had no easy access to credit and this is what is needed to inflate a bubble and in hindsight he was proven wrong, but a lot of people would listen to him and make the decision to not buy.

The other side of buying a house now even if the market fell by propsqueries magically 80% is if its your home and you do fall on hard times and can not afford to pay the mortgage the banks have a real job trying to force you out and legally in a lot of cases you can stay there without paying for years. The same thing can not be said about renting. But as I have stated before I would not advise anyone to buy or sell as everyone on here are not profits so make your own decision based on your own circumstances.

The_Conductor · 24-03-2021 11:02AM

fliball123 wrote: »

I would be looking at taxing big companies who earn more than say 1 million a year paying 50% of it back to the country.

I'd be looking at treating rental income wholly separate to any other income.
I'd disallow any deductions, at all.
I'd tax it at a reasonable rate across the board (say 25% of gross rental income) and the landlord covers their costs and any profit resides in the other 75%

The whole concept of allowing the cost of borrowing against income as an allowable cost for landlords- is one of the concepts that I have most issues with. However, I don't think it should be allowable as a cost for anyone. If you have borrowing- that is your business, however, it shouldn't be an allowable cost (for any sector).

The most equitable manner of looking at rental income- is to ringfence it separately from other 'unearned income' and treat it in an entirely different manner (such as a straightline tax with no allowable deductions whatsoever).

We seriously need to think outside of the box on this one.

fliball123 · 24-03-2021 11:07AM

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'd be looking at treating rental income wholly separate to any other income.
I'd disallow any deductions, at all.
I'd tax it at a reasonable rate across the board (say 25% of gross rental income) and the landlord covers their costs and any profit resides in the other 75%

The whole concept of allowing the cost of borrowing against income as an allowable cost for landlords- is one of the concepts that I have most issues with. However, I don't think it should be allowable as a cost for anyone. If you have borrowing- that is your business, however, it shouldn't be an allowable cost (for any sector).

The most equitable manner of looking at rental income- is to ringfence it separately from other 'unearned income' and treat it in an entirely different manner (such as a straightline tax with no allowable deductions whatsoever).

We seriously need to think outside of the box on this one.

I would only do this with Vultures and REITS if their profit is over 1 million and a lot are I would tax their profit at 50%.

The_Conductor · 24-03-2021 11:12AM

fliball123 wrote: »

I would only do this with Vultures and REITS if their profit is over 1 million and a lot are I would tax their profit at 50%.

I'd do it across the board- and I'd also do it with commercial landlords, I wouldn't restrict it to the residential sector. I wouldn't have any minimum or maximum associated with it- and I would insist on some manner of stripping the effect of borrowed funds out of the equation (which is partially why I'd suggest a flatrate tax on the gross income with no allowable deductions).

Our tax system is being abused to legitimately avoid generating taxable cashflows. We need to see where we are leaking taxable income- and plug the holes.

fliball123 · 24-03-2021 11:20AM

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'd do it across the board- and I'd also do it with commercial landlords, I wouldn't restrict it to the residential sector. I wouldn't have any minimum or maximum associated with it- and I would insist on some manner of stripping the effect of borrowed funds out of the equation (which is partially why I'd suggest a flatrate tax on the gross income with no allowable deductions).

Our tax system is being abused to legitimately avoid generating taxable cashflows. We need to see where we are leaking taxable income- and plug the holes.

The only thing I will say about that is a lot of smaller landlords will be paying 50% on profits already via the income tax model and they can only write off profits on the interest of the loan or any expense that are attached to the rented property, are they then been double taxed? Or Triple taxed with property tax or quadrupled taxed when you add in stamp duty. Is this not one of the reasons we are seeing small landlords vacate the rental market and now we have big companies who are so big that they are able to leave apartments empty for long periods of time so that they dont have to ask for lower rent. I think your proposition has a lot of unintended consequences that have shown this is the wrong way to do things.

Mad_maxx · 24-03-2021 11:30AM

cnocbui wrote: »

Spare me. You can buy apartments in limerick for 60-70K. FTBs in capital cities of countries have never had it particularly easy. If you can't afford capital city prices, consider moving to somewhere cheaper. FTB's wanting turn-key new-builds in a capital city whinging about un affordability should maybe do a rethink. I'll bet none of them own a mobile phone thats older than 3 years.

i know the Limerick city market well , bar circa 2014 at the latest , you could not buy apartments in Limerick city for 70 K anywhere bar the dumps on the Dock road around mount kennet and those are 100 k today.

The_Conductor · 24-03-2021 11:34AM

fliball123 wrote: »

The only thing I will say about that is a lot of smaller landlords will be paying 50% on profits already and they can only write off the interest of the loan or any expense that is attached to the rented property, are they then been double taxed?

No- flatline the tax at a reasonable rate- which will also act as an encourage to pay down debt (this revolving debt facility is nuts).

If rental income was flatlined at a straight 25% of gross rental income- the landlords can use the residual 75% to pay all and any costs- including servicing debts. It would also act as an impetus to pay down debt (other than at the moment, when the cost of debt is low).

There is an irrational incentive to load debt on property (and other assets) this irrational incentive *has* to be hit on the head.

fliball123 · 24-03-2021 11:38AM

The_Conductor wrote: »

No- flatline the tax at a reasonable rate- which will also act as an encourage to pay down debt (this revolving debt facility is nuts).

If rental income was flatlined at a straight 25% of gross rental income- the landlords can use the residual 75% to pay all and any costs- including servicing debts. It would also act as an impetus to pay down debt (other than at the moment, when the cost of debt is low).

There is an irrational incentive to load debt on property (and other assets) this irrational incentive *has* to be hit on the head.

Yeah not a bad proposal

PropQueries · 24-03-2021 11:59AM

fliball123 wrote: »

The only thing I will say about that is a lot of smaller landlords will be paying 50% on profits already via the income tax model and they can only write off profits on the interest of the loan or any expense that are attached to the rented property, are they then been double taxed? Or Triple taxed with property tax or quadrupled taxed when you add in stamp duty. Is this not one of the reasons we are seeing small landlords vacate the rental market and now we have big companies who are so big that they are able to leave apartments empty for long periods of time so that they dont have to ask for lower rent. I think your proposition has a lot of unintended consequences that have shown this is the wrong way to do things.

But does it really matter if a landlord leaves the market? It's not like the house disappears with him. As long as it's occupied, then it's being used and a significant stick on ensuring such properties are occupied would ensure there's no removal of stock from the market.

Whether someone buys it or rents it, it's still being occupied and solving the problem.

If an electrician leaves Ireland because of high taxes, we are actually down an electrician and that's a problem. If a landlord leaves the market, we still have the house. It's not really a problem.

Either way, taxes on all types of property owners (owners, investors etc.) are only going one way i.e. up as those assets can't leave the state (unlike an electrician who actually can take his asset (i.e. his skill) with him when he leaves the state) and it's an easy win from a Government revenue viewpoint IMO

fliball123 · 24-03-2021 12:05PM

PropQueries wrote: »

But does it really matter if a landlord leaves the market. It's not like the house disappears with him. As long as it's occupied, then it's being used and a significant stick on ensuring such properties are occupied would ensure there's no removal of stock from the market.

Whether someone buys it or rents it, it's still being occupied and solving the problem.

If an electrician leaves Ireland because of high taxes, we are actually down an electrician and that's a problem. If a landlord leaves the market, we still have the house. It's not really a problem.

Either way, taxes on all types of property owners (owners, investors etc.) are only going one way i.e. up as those assets can't leave the state (unlike an electrician who actually can take his asset (i.e. his skill) with him when he leaves the state) and it's an easy win from a Government revenue viewpoint IMO

Well it does if you leave the big players there as then they have the power to keep rents artificially high as they can afford to leave property vacant. So what in effect is happening is the small landlord is losing a huge % of overall rental property market in the country and REITS and vultures are gaining a larger % of the rental market.

As I have pointed out there is already a quadruple tax on small landlords what your looking for will allow the big guys to get a bigger foothold on the market and rents will not be coming down any time soon. As this is what is currently going on.

I think there needs to be some kind of threshold where the big guys pay more

awec · 24-03-2021 12:06PM

Yes I have never really bought the argument that Ireland suffers when it loses it's small, amateur landlords. This was an argument thrown about all the time, particularly when the AirBnB rules were being discussed.

"Don't do this or we'll sell!"

Ok, great. Please do.

fliball123 · 24-03-2021 12:08PM

awec wrote: »

Yes I have never really bought the argument that Ireland suffers when it loses it's small, amateur landlords. This was an argument thrown about all the time, particularly when the AirBnB rules were being discussed.

"Don't do this or we'll sell!"

Ok, great. Please do.

And now we have the big lads snapping up property left right and center and have the ability to soak up losses of not renting out some property in order to keep rents high..So yeah this is whats happening if the smaller landlord had been supported a bit more maybe there would be more competition in the rental sector

PropQueries · 24-03-2021 12:09PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Well it does if you leave the big players there as then they have the power to keep rents artificially high as they can afford to leave property vacant. So what in effect is happening is the small landlord is losing a huge % of overall rental property market in the country and REITS and vultures are gaining a larger % of the rental market.

As I have pointed out there is already a quadruple tax on small landlords what your looking for will allow the big guys to get a bigger foothold on the market and rents will not be coming down any time soon. As this is what is currently going on.

I think there needs to be some kind of threshold where the big guys pay more

Well, at least the big players are also adding to the supply of housing. Yes, they're outbidding regular people but the actual supply of housing units is increasing because of them.

A small landlord is just taking a house that is already built, outbidding regular people and adding nothing to supply. I really don't see how giving small landlords preferential tax treatment helps increase actual supply.

cnocbui · 24-03-2021 12:09PM

Mad_maxx wrote: »

i know the Limerick city market well , bar circa 2014 at the latest , you could not buy apartments in Limerick city for 70 K anywhere bar the dumps on the Dock road around mount kennet and those are 100 k today.

I gave links a few posts back showing one listed for €70 K last October.

fliball123 · 24-03-2021 12:10PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, at least the big players are also adding to the supply of housing. Yes, they're outbidding regular people but the actual supply of housing units is increasing because of them.

A small landlord is just taking a house that is already built, outbidding regular people and adding nothing to supply. I really don't see how giving small landlords preferential tax treatment helps increase actual supply.

So is the amount of rent being paid and that while there are a lot of rental properties empty..

cnocbui · 24-03-2021 12:13PM

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'd be looking at treating rental income wholly separate to any other income.
I'd disallow any deductions, at all.
I'd tax it at a reasonable rate across the board (say 25% of gross rental income) and the landlord covers their costs and any profit resides in the other 75%

The whole concept of allowing the cost of borrowing against income as an allowable cost for landlords- is one of the concepts that I have most issues with. However, I don't think it should be allowable as a cost for anyone. If you have borrowing- that is your business, however, it shouldn't be an allowable cost (for any sector).

The most equitable manner of looking at rental income- is to ringfence it separately from other 'unearned income' and treat it in an entirely different manner (such as a straightline tax with no allowable deductions whatsoever).

We seriously need to think outside of the box on this one.

That's what NZ have just done - disallowed deduction of interest against rental income.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1