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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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fliball123

The_Conductor wrote: »

No- flatline the tax at a reasonable rate- which will also act as an encourage to pay down debt (this revolving debt facility is nuts).

If rental income was flatlined at a straight 25% of gross rental income- the landlords can use the residual 75% to pay all and any costs- including servicing debts. It would also act as an impetus to pay down debt (other than at the moment, when the cost of debt is low).

There is an irrational incentive to load debt on property (and other assets) this irrational incentive *has* to be hit on the head.

Yeah not a bad proposal

The_Conductor

fliball123 wrote: »

The only thing I will say about that is a lot of smaller landlords will be paying 50% on profits already and they can only write off the interest of the loan or any expense that is attached to the rented property, are they then been double taxed?

No- flatline the tax at a reasonable rate- which will also act as an encourage to pay down debt (this revolving debt facility is nuts).

If rental income was flatlined at a straight 25% of gross rental income- the landlords can use the residual 75% to pay all and any costs- including servicing debts. It would also act as an impetus to pay down debt (other than at the moment, when the cost of debt is low).

There is an irrational incentive to load debt on property (and other assets) this irrational incentive *has* to be hit on the head.

Mad_maxx

cnocbui wrote: »

Spare me. You can buy apartments in limerick for 60-70K. FTBs in capital cities of countries have never had it particularly easy. If you can't afford capital city prices, consider moving to somewhere cheaper. FTB's wanting turn-key new-builds in a capital city whinging about un affordability should maybe do a rethink. I'll bet none of them own a mobile phone thats older than 3 years.

i know the Limerick city market well , bar circa 2014 at the latest , you could not buy apartments in Limerick city for 70 K anywhere bar the dumps on the Dock road around mount kennet and those are 100 k today.

fliball123

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'd do it across the board- and I'd also do it with commercial landlords, I wouldn't restrict it to the residential sector. I wouldn't have any minimum or maximum associated with it- and I would insist on some manner of stripping the effect of borrowed funds out of the equation (which is partially why I'd suggest a flatrate tax on the gross income with no allowable deductions).

Our tax system is being abused to legitimately avoid generating taxable cashflows. We need to see where we are leaking taxable income- and plug the holes.

The only thing I will say about that is a lot of smaller landlords will be paying 50% on profits already via the income tax model and they can only write off profits on the interest of the loan or any expense that are attached to the rented property, are they then been double taxed? Or Triple taxed with property tax or quadrupled taxed when you add in stamp duty. Is this not one of the reasons we are seeing small landlords vacate the rental market and now we have big companies who are so big that they are able to leave apartments empty for long periods of time so that they dont have to ask for lower rent. I think your proposition has a lot of unintended consequences that have shown this is the wrong way to do things.

The_Conductor

fliball123 wrote: »

I would only do this with Vultures and REITS if their profit is over 1 million and a lot are I would tax their profit at 50%.

I'd do it across the board- and I'd also do it with commercial landlords, I wouldn't restrict it to the residential sector. I wouldn't have any minimum or maximum associated with it- and I would insist on some manner of stripping the effect of borrowed funds out of the equation (which is partially why I'd suggest a flatrate tax on the gross income with no allowable deductions).

Our tax system is being abused to legitimately avoid generating taxable cashflows. We need to see where we are leaking taxable income- and plug the holes.

fliball123

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'd be looking at treating rental income wholly separate to any other income.
I'd disallow any deductions, at all.
I'd tax it at a reasonable rate across the board (say 25% of gross rental income) and the landlord covers their costs and any profit resides in the other 75%

The whole concept of allowing the cost of borrowing against income as an allowable cost for landlords- is one of the concepts that I have most issues with. However, I don't think it should be allowable as a cost for anyone. If you have borrowing- that is your business, however, it shouldn't be an allowable cost (for any sector).

The most equitable manner of looking at rental income- is to ringfence it separately from other 'unearned income' and treat it in an entirely different manner (such as a straightline tax with no allowable deductions whatsoever).

We seriously need to think outside of the box on this one.

I would only do this with Vultures and REITS if their profit is over 1 million and a lot are I would tax their profit at 50%.

The_Conductor

fliball123 wrote: »

I would be looking at taxing big companies who earn more than say 1 million a year paying 50% of it back to the country.

I'd be looking at treating rental income wholly separate to any other income.
I'd disallow any deductions, at all.
I'd tax it at a reasonable rate across the board (say 25% of gross rental income) and the landlord covers their costs and any profit resides in the other 75%

The whole concept of allowing the cost of borrowing against income as an allowable cost for landlords- is one of the concepts that I have most issues with. However, I don't think it should be allowable as a cost for anyone. If you have borrowing- that is your business, however, it shouldn't be an allowable cost (for any sector).

The most equitable manner of looking at rental income- is to ringfence it separately from other 'unearned income' and treat it in an entirely different manner (such as a straightline tax with no allowable deductions whatsoever).

We seriously need to think outside of the box on this one.

fliball123

Marius34 wrote: »

Look at FTB buyers view, who stuck paying high rents.
2019 it was worth to wait because of lots of uncertainty around Brexit.
2020 it was worth to wait because of Recession.
2021 it still is worth to wait because of low supplies.

You see the problem? Sometimes you just need to make a move, we don't know if it will get any better any time soon.

I would go back even further 2017 - 2019 superstar economists like David McWilliams first show states that we are back in a bubble even do we had no easy access to credit and this is what is needed to inflate a bubble and in hindsight he was proven wrong, but a lot of people would listen to him and make the decision to not buy.

The other side of buying a house now even if the market fell by propsqueries magically 80% is if its your home and you do fall on hard times and can not afford to pay the mortgage the banks have a real job trying to force you out and legally in a lot of cases you can stay there without paying for years. The same thing can not be said about renting. But as I have stated before I would not advise anyone to buy or sell as everyone on here are not profits so make your own decision based on your own circumstances.

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

I thought we had established that on this thread. Buyers are competing against a government using their money plus investment trusts who pay no tax on profits. Buyers are cannon fodder

There is no fair market

This is banana rebublic yet again

This is what happens when the government are essentially backed into a corner for the guts of 25 years successive governments have not built enough social housing, now the lefties and Sinn Fein are making serious gains and the panic has now set in and the government are competing to buy houses to make it look like they are fighting homelessness and unfortunately and I said this as far back as 7/8 years ago on a thread on this site. Irish people buying a house are now competing with everyone on the globe to buy houses here. You no longer have to be living here to see a place you like and to bid on and with the rental returns that were been given back then it was attractive and rents have only gone up and low and behold a couple of years later REITS and vulture funds are the dominant players in the rental market. Not sure how they get the gini back in the bottle now. I would be looking at taxing big companies who earn more than say 1 million a year paying 50% of it back to the country.

[Deleted User]

cnocbui wrote: »

Remarkable. I hope you snapped one up In 1998

In 1998 we had trouble finding something to buy near Limerick, choices were few and the market was hot.

Sarcasm?
I'm just trying to point out that it is not the same for ftb now. Yes, it wasn't easy years ago, but it's almost impossible now. Your just very dismissive of the problems for younger people starting out now.
I'm talking about Dublin here, btw

Villa05

cnocbui wrote:

I didn't mean to suggest that every FTBer could or should move. If a certain proportion did so it would take pressure off the constrained supply and should help reduce demand and prices.

Sharing stories of dysfunction from other cities across the globe does not really justify continuing dysfunction in our own

These stories point to a global issue in the sustainability of house prices indicating a bubble which is neither good for buyers or owners and another avoidable mess for taxpayers to clean up in the future as well as their excessive debts

JimmyVik

Hubertj wrote: »

So can anyone advise on the accuracy of the construction costs calculator on the SCSI? Rough calculation to add in 10% margin for error?

https://scsi.ie/consumer/build/

This could be lovely.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/ref-929-site-at-ohermong-caherciveen-kerry/4490431

Would you get planning though if you arent from the area.
You would if you were building a huge housing estate on it

JimmyVik

Deleted User wrote: »

If I could stand in Dublin city center in 2007 ant tell everybody that next year for many of you will be worst in your life !?
Nobody would not believe me.More,everybody would call me sick and stupid.
Same here again.
People are blind and never learn.

In 2016 I came trough the company name Seatek .This is commercial company which getting paid by government for employing people on job seeker benefit.They does not care what you want they simply take your jobseeker alowance of once you refuse job offer
That how Ireland came to full employment before Covid.
My social welfare alowance been canceled because I refuse job offer for minimum wage half of which I had spend for travel.I got job very quick and was working without day of because got one more .

Due with money shortage and high level of unemployment this gonna repeated again.There will be massacre ! Many people will leave houses because will not have money for rent.That one of the reasons why prices will down.

What did they say when you stood in Dublin City Center telling them.
Did you follow youw own advice and get yourself ready to buy a few apartments for €50k in the following years.
You must be loaded now.

JimmyVik

bubblypop wrote: »

Just one little example, in 1998 I started my career in Dublin, a house could be bought for approx twice the starting salary, a 3 bed semi. Now, a 3 bed semi costs over 10 times the starting salary.
So, it is hardly comparable

Around then it was still more common to buy a house on one wage.
Thats about the time the two salary buyers started to really lean on the housing market.

Now its 99% certain that there will be 2 wages buying a house.

[Deleted User]

<SNIP>

cnocbui

I didn't mean to suggest that every FTBer could or should move. If a certain proportion did so it would take pressure off the constrained supply and should help reduce demand and prices.

Unaffordable' Auckland forces teacher out.....He said they began looking in places like Dunedin and realised there were homes that were affordable for them in the regions - just not in Auckland.

"I'm lucky I have the option of being a teacher that I can move from city to city and retain my pay rate. Most individuals who work in Auckland have no option."

A study by Massey University Institute of Education tutor, Graham Jackson, found an existing problem of older teachers nearing retirement and low numbers of new teachers joining the profession to replace them was being exacerbated in Auckland by young teachers moving out of the city because it's unaffordable.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/85433287/unaffordable-auckland-forces-teacher-out

And the same thing of course applied to nurses, police and others.

Same in London.

London Mortgage Affordability

Across all eight chosen public sector professions (NHS GP Doctor, Firefighter, Police Officer, Social Worker, Secondary School Teacher, Primary School Teacher, NHS Nurse (Registered Nurse), and Military Soldier) none were able to afford a mortgage in London.

Even though the London weighting allowance was added to our front-line heroes, they were still unable to buy a London property.

However, the OnlineMortgageAdvisor team understood that mortgages are usually achieved with a second income. Finding the average London salary of £34,473, they used this to determine the potential for a joint mortgage and still it proved unattainable.

https://www.wealthandfinance-news.com/homeless-heroes-87-of-public-sector-workers-cant-afford-a-mortgage-in-the-uk/

Perhaps your union needs to have a little chat with the government about why it's providing 'social' housing to ne're do wells and migrants so they can live in Dublin instead of shipping them out to somewhere cheaper and following London's example:

Key workers will be first in the queue for thousands of new homes being built across London, the mayor of London has said.

NHS staff, police officers, firefighters, transport workers and teachers will be given priority access to buy or rent homes below market rates.

London mayor Sadiq Khan said recognising the “service and sacrifice” would allow key workers to “put down roots” and was the “very least they deserve”.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/londons-key-workers-priority-affordable-housing_uk_604a7facc5b65bed87d93583

My phone is 11 years old.

hi!

cnocbui wrote: »

Spare me. You can buy apartments in limerick for 60-70K. FTBs in capital cities of countries have never had it particularly easy. If you can't afford capital city prices, consider moving to somewhere cheaper. FTB's wanting turn-key new-builds in a capital city whinging about un affordability should maybe do a rethink. I'll bet none of them own a mobile phone thats older than 3 years.

Sick of hearing this move somewhere else comment constantly being thrown around. To have a functioning city you need people to work in them and therefore live near them. I’m a nurse working in a Dublin hospital- what do you suggest I do and every other person like me? Leave? Who will staff the hospitals? I’m not even trying to buy in Dublin but a commuter county and still can’t afford it. I’d like to have some sort of quality of life and not have an hour long commute after 13 hour shifts.
Oh and I bought my phone in 2017 so it’s 4 years old

Hubertj

So can anyone advise on the accuracy of the construction costs calculator on the SCSI? Rough calculation to add in 10% margin for error?

https://scsi.ie/consumer/build/

This could be lovely.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/ref-929-site-at-ohermong-caherciveen-kerry/4490431

yagan

Deleted User wrote: »

If I could stand in Dublin city center in 2007 ant tell everybody that next year for many of you will be worst in your life !?
Nobody would not believe me.More,everybody would call me sick and stupid.
Same here again.
People are blind and never learn.

I was at the coalface of property development back in 06/07 when the signs of reversal were starting to show, but dare mention doubt and I'd be hounded by family, friends and colleagues. I returned to the property development business in Dublin two years ago and before covid finance heads were reckoning peak crane was going to be 2020, early 2021.

I dropped out to look after elderly relatives when Covid arrived but from talking with contacts even some apartment projects that had reached foundation level were mothballed and all effort was going towards getting anything near half finished to market ASAP. Even if not every business embraces WFH the cost savings will make blended working a reality and demand for office space and beds in the city was going to be challenged.

Plus I think we're going to see a major hit on transatlantic tourism just on travel insurance hikes, another downward pressure on bed demand.

cnocbui

bubblypop wrote: »

Just one little example, in 1998 I started my career in Dublin, a house could be bought for approx twice the starting salary, a 3 bed semi. Now, a 3 bed semi costs over 10 times the starting salary.
So, it is hardly comparable

Remarkable. I hope you snapped one up In 1998

In 1998 we had trouble finding something to buy near Limerick, choices were few and the market was hot.

[Deleted User]

If I could stand in Dublin city center in 2007 ant tell everybody that next year for many of you will be worst in your life !?
Nobody would not believe me.More,everybody would call me sick and stupid.
Same here again.
People are blind and never learn.

In 2016 I came trough the company name Seatek .This is commercial company which getting paid by government for employing people on job seeker benefit.They does not care what you want they simply take your jobseeker alowance of once you refuse job offer
That how Ireland came to full employment before Covid.
My social welfare alowance been canceled because I refuse job offer for minimum wage half of which I had spend for travel.I got job very quick and was working without day of because got one more .

Due with money shortage and high level of unemployment this gonna repeated again.There will be massacre ! Many people will leave houses because will not have money for rent.That one of the reasons why prices will down.

woejus

TheSheriff wrote: »

Serious question; Are you Neutralguy?

spaces ! after ! the ! many ! exclamation ! marks !

Pelezico

TheSheriff wrote: »

+++++1 on this.

For years now the motto on here has been "bargains will be had next year".... for years.

Yiu could be right....massive bargains now compared to next year.

cnocbui

Yurt! wrote: »

I took the liberty of searching Limerick city on daft. A whopping single property (pictured) in that price range. 75k gets you great value there alright. Anyone want to do a whiparound for cnoc's time machine? More of the iphone guff.

Snapped up, unsurprisingly. It was still for sale in Oct 2020.

Here it is, sale agreed: https://www.dng.ie/residential/brochure/2-st-john-s-court-brennan-s-row-limerick-city-limerick/4380806

2 Saint John's Court, Brennan's Row, Co. Limerick is for ...
[Search domain www.daft.ie/for-sale/apartment-2-saint-johns-court-brennans-row-co-limerick/2610006] https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/apartment-2-saint-johns-court-brennans-row-co-limerick/2610006
2 Saint John's Court, Brennan's Row, Co. Limerick a 1 Bed Apartment is now for sale by DNG Cusack Dunne on Daft.ie with an asking price of €70,000

TheSheriff

Marius34 wrote: »

Look at FTB buyers view, who stuck paying high rents.
2019 it was worth to wait because of lots of uncertainty around Brexit.
2020 it was worth to wait because of Recession.
2021 it still is worth to wait because of low supplies.

You see the problem? Sometimes you just need to make a move, we don't know if it will get any better any time soon.

+++++1 on this.

For years now the motto on here has been "bargains will be had next year".... for years.

Danger781

We found a house that we thought looked interesting so emailed the estate agent to ask when a viewing would be possible. Estate Agent said that no viewings are happening but they are accepting vids via email. They will not us view without first lodging a bid. Is this normal practice?

TheSheriff

Deleted User wrote: »

Not on hurry I looking for another car about 1 year
The maximum digits of cars for sale on donedeal was about 79 000 in July of 2020
The number was rising from 74 000 from about March of 2020
Then was full lockdown situation and dealers yards been closed
Today digits went to 81 000 from 75 000
Only per 2 months time and digits steady rising ! Also prices started falling at 10 per cent average.
When dealers yards are open for business !
It looks like people has less and less money if they putting them motors for sale !
The number of investors buy to let falling highly.
And last news from government propaganda says Why keep money in a bank ? Buy property for let ! Or put your money to stock market ( other words use them as toilet paper ).Hurry,Hurry,inflation on way !Trying make people spend them savings to move economy forward.This look like deflation on way !
Things does not look right lads.

Serious question; Are you Neutralguy?

[Deleted User]

Not on hurry I looking for another car about 1 year
The maximum digits of cars for sale on donedeal was about 79 000 in July of 2020
The number was rising from 74 000 from about March of 2020
Then was full lockdown situation and dealers yards been closed
Today digits went to 81 000 from 75 000
Only per 2 months time and digits steady rising ! Also prices started falling at 10 per cent average.
When dealers yards are open for business !
It looks like people has less and less money if they putting them motors for sale !
The number of investors buy to let falling highly.
And last news from government propaganda says Why keep money in a bank ? Buy property for let ! Or put your money to stock market ( other words use them as toilet paper ).Hurry,Hurry,inflation on way !Trying make people spend them savings to move economy forward.This look like deflation on way !
Things does not look right lads.

[Deleted User]

cnocbui wrote: »

Spare me. You can buy apartments in limerick for 60-70K. FTBs in capital cities of countries have never had it particularly easy. If you can't afford capital city prices, consider moving to somewhere cheaper. FTB's wanting turn-key new-builds in a capital city whinging about un affordability should maybe do a rethink. I'll bet none of them own a mobile phone thats older than 3 years.

Just one little example, in 1998 I started my career in Dublin, a house could be bought for approx twice the starting salary, a 3 bed semi. Now, a 3 bed semi costs over 10 times the starting salary.
So, it is hardly comparable

Marius34

Pelezico wrote: »

You have been educated since coming to this thread. Irish property is not among the most expensive in the world....but guess what....it feels like it.

Why would anyone buy with so little on the market? It doesn't not make sense. Also there are thousands of mortgages not being serviced at present because of covid.

Look at FTB buyers view, who stuck paying high rents.
2019 it was worth to wait because of lots of uncertainty around Brexit.
2020 it was worth to wait because of Recession.
2021 it still is worth to wait because of low supplies.

You see the problem? Sometimes you just need to make a move, we don't know if it will get any better any time soon.