United Ireland....... Persuade the unionists.....

Del2005 wrote: »

The poll would have to be ran at the same time in both jurisdictions.

The problem with a united Ireland is its like Brexit. Plenty of people are whopping it up but have no idea what type of country we'd be after.

The poll can't be Yes or No as the result would be even worse than Brexit. So they would have to agree to a lot before a poll. Will Ireland keep its flag and national anthem? If not what replaces them, look at the response to Ireland's Call! Will we do federal states or central control.

I think a poll will be tighter down South than up North.

I believe that it is accepted by all and sundry that there would years of preparation and debate on many issues including those raised in your post. Nobody is suggesting the NI Secretary of State should call a snap border vote.

Five Eighth wrote: »

I believe that it is accepted by all and sundry that there would years of preparation and debate on many issues including those raised in your post. Nobody is suggesting the NI Secretary of State should call a snap border vote.

I'd be careful with that assessment. All it takes is a perfect storm of global politics for the border to be gone within months. It took less year for Eastern Germany to go from the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9th, 1989 to reuniting with Western Germany on October 3rd, 1990. Even back in summer of 1989, this chain of events seemed unthinkable. I was eight years at the time, and when my parents took the family on a road trip to the town of Hitzacker, which sat on a bluff overlooking the Elbe river and the intra-German border, it seemed as if the border, and the iron curtain, would be there for eternity.

While the situation on this island is nowhere near as tense as the situation along the Iron Curtain was, there are still lessons to be drawn from German reunification, namely having a general idea of what a reunited Ireland should look like. In Germany, a lot of this was done "on the fly" in those frantic months between November 89 and October 90, leading to a lot of shady deals and quick & dirty solutions that effectively destroyed what little was left of the GDRs economy, caused a massive unravelling of societal structures and fabric, and caused a lot of ill will towards Western Germany, which persists to this day in many regions. Many in Eastern Germany see reunification as a hostile takeover rather than a merger.

A real debate needs to happen in the South about what shape a reunited Ireland should look like in terms of economy, social and political structures, finances, defense, law enforcement and so on. It is the answers to these questions that will make or break any attempt at reunification, whether triggered by a border poll or by a paradigm shift in UK policy. And to be frank, this debate should also encompass potentially throwing out Republican or traditional Irish symbolism and heraldry altogether, or even the current political system of the Republic as a whole, if that's what's needed to make reunification work.

would the unionists have the heart to go back to war? would they have the numbers to start the UFF and UVF again?

I reckon if there was a united Ireland and they started shootings and bombings again, it would be firmly stamped out and quickly. we would have help from the UK and USA if needed, there would be absolutely no tolerance for violence and groups trying to go back to the old days.

thomil wrote: »

I'd be careful with that assessment. All it takes is a perfect storm of global politics for the border to be gone within months. It took less year for Eastern Germany to go from the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9th, 1989 to reuniting with Western Germany on October 3rd, 1990. Even back in summer of 1989, this chain of events seemed unthinkable. I was eight years at the time, and when my parents took the family on a road trip to the town of Hitzacker, which sat on a bluff overlooking the Elbe river and the intra-German border, it seemed as if the border, and the iron curtain, would be there for eternity.

While the situation on this island is nowhere near as tense as the situation along the Iron Curtain was, there are still lessons to be drawn from German reunification, namely having a general idea of what a reunited Ireland should look like. In Germany, a lot of this was done "on the fly" in those frantic months between November 89 and October 90, leading to a lot of shady deals and quick & dirty solutions that effectively destroyed what little was left of the GDRs economy, caused a massive unravelling of societal structures and fabric, and caused a lot of ill will towards Western Germany, which persists to this day in many regions. Many in Eastern Germany see reunification as a hostile takeover rather than a merger.

A real debate needs to happen in the South about what shape a reunited Ireland should look like in terms of economy, social and political structures, finances, defense, law enforcement and so on. It is the answers to these questions that will make or break any attempt at reunification, whether triggered by a border poll or by a paradigm shift in UK policy. And to be frank, this debate should also encompass potentially throwing out Republican or traditional Irish symbolism and heraldry altogether, or even the current political system of the Republic as a whole, if that's what's needed to make reunification work.

Thoughtful post. My thinking is that in Germany both sides of the wall were yearning for reunification. People power swept across the East-West divide. Ireland is not comparable in that context. There are 1m Unionists mostly anti-UI and, according to the polls, a percentage of NI 'Catholics' would vote to remain in the UK. Also, there are many in Ireland who would vote against a UI for reasons such as possible Unionist/Loyalist violence, cost of reunification, changes to Irish Constitution, etc.

Deleted User wrote: »

Instead of getting Westminster's scraps, they'd be getting Leinster House's scraps - like the rest of us outside The Pale.

Thats a lot less scraps!

The pinstripe suites, ngo's and public service unions need to be dealt with first before any real change can occur.

Five Eighth wrote: »

Thoughtful post. My thinking is that in Germany both sides of the wall were yearning for reunification. People power swept across the East-West divide. Ireland is not comparable in that context. There are 1m Unionists mostly anti-UI and, according to the polls, a percentage of NI 'Catholics' would vote to remain in the UK. Also, there are many in Ireland who would vote against a UI for reasons such as possible Unionist/Loyalist violence, cost of reunification, changes to Irish Constitution, etc.

You'd be surprised how controversial reunification was at the time. Leading political figures in western German politics were actually arguing for Eastern Germany to remain as an independent country, at least for a time. Similarly, while it may look, especially to those looking in from abroad (no offence intended), like there was this inevitable drive for reunification, the rallies in 1989 that led to the fall of the Berlin Wall weren't originally aimed at reestablishing a united Germany. The main aim was for a true democracy in Eastern Germany, better living conditions and accountability for the political leadership in East Berlin. Reunification only really became the big aim later on, after the Eastern German economy had started imploding.

In general, I agree with you of course, the situation in Germany in 89 cannot be compared to the current situation in the North. However, it is the only reunification of two countries in recent history, and there are analogies between these two situations. Furthermore, just like how the two Germanies were swept away by a changing global situation, there is quite a bit of potential for the same to happen with the North. When that happens, there won't be the time for all parties to make up their minds about how any future country will look like and Ireland quite frankly can't afford to mismanage any reunification, as unlike in Germany, widespread violence in the North is still very much on the cards in such a scenario.

cj maxx wrote: »

Never mind the unionists, its the nationalists that need to be courted for a UI to happen. Most of them i know would never ever vote for a UI.

Well, if the vast majority of Unionist and 'most' NI Nationalists would vote to remain tied to the UK, then a UI is never going to happen.

Surely they cannot be described as 'Nationalists' if they would vote for the Union?

Five Eighth wrote: »

Surely they cannot be described as 'Nationalists' if they would vote for the Union?

People of a Nationalist background not ready to vote in favour of a UI would probably just stay at home.

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

People of a Nationalist background not ready to vote in favour of a UI would probably just stay at home.

How could they describe themselves as a 'Nationalist' if, as the poster asserts, they "...would never ever vote for a United Ireland'?

Five Eighth wrote: »

How could they describe themselves as a 'Nationalist' if, as the poster asserts, they "...would never ever vote for a United Ireland'?

I can actually see his logic. Nationalist parties and movements actually have the most to lose from a United Ireland. Right now, the British presence up North gives these parties a crystallization point, something they can rally their members and supporters around. If this goes away, these parties lose their unique selling point within the political spectrum. As such, while a border poll might be an aim of these movements, losing such a vote would serve them better than winning it and moving to a united Ireland.

Allinall wrote: »

You’ll need to persuade an awful lot of southerners first, including this one.

Southerner?
I never consider any Irish people to be that unless from Cork, Kerry Waterford or Wexford.