What exactly is happening with AstraZeneca?

18-03-2021 02:27PM

Aegir wrote: »

A German company owned by two Turkish immigrants developed it (with support from the European investment bank and the UK) and it is produced by an American company.

it isn't an EU vaccine any more than the Oxford/Astra Zeneca (developed by an Irish woman at a UK university and funded by the UK and EU) vaccine is a British vaccine, despite what you may think.

One was born in Germany, the other moved there when he was 4. I thinks its safe to the the development of this vaccine was a German led endeavour

NeuralNetwork · 18-03-2021 02:27PM

Aegir wrote: »

If they had signed with Merck, the US could be sitting on even more vaccines than they are now.

The Merck arrangement may well have been a response to concerns about Trump who was very much into vaccine nationalism, to the point he even suggested purchasing European companies to gain exclusive access to technology for mRNA vaccines.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-confirms-that-donald-trump-tried-to-buy-firm-working-on-coronavirus-vaccine/

You can see the U.K. logic and the Tories know the thought process of a populist nationalist better than most!

18-03-2021 02:28PM

robinph wrote: »

Yes.

BBC News - Covax vaccine-sharing scheme delivers first doses to Ghana
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-56180161

but how could that happen when Astra Zeneca are controlled by the British government and all their production has to go to them first?

18-03-2021 02:30PM

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

The Merck arrangement may well have been a response to concerns about Trump who was very much into vaccine nationalism, to the point he even suggested purchasing European companies to gain exclusive access to technology for mRNA vaccines.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-confirms-that-donald-trump-tried-to-buy-firm-working-on-coronavirus-vaccine/

You can see the U.K. logic and the Tories know the thought process of a populist nationalist better than most!

all this was playing out at the same time as Germany were banning the export of PPE and France were impounding it to prevent it going elsewhere

robinph · 18-03-2021 02:30PM

Aegir wrote: »

but how could that happen when Astra Zeneca are controlled by the British government and all their production has to go to them first?

And the vast majority of the funding for the Covax scheme is from the UK. Must be fake news I guess?

Pete_Cavan · 18-03-2021 02:32PM

Aegir wrote: »

A German company owned by two Turkish immigrants developed it (with support from the European investment bank and the UK) and it is produced by an American company.

it isn't an EU vaccine any more than the Oxford/Astra Zeneca (developed by an Irish woman at a UK university and funded by the UK and EU) vaccine is a British vaccine, despite what you may think.

I think vaccines don't have nationalities regardless of who developed them, what countries/groups of countries funded them or where they are produced.

It seems the Oxford vaccine is considered by some to be a UK vaccine because it was developed there and they received funding from the UK government. This is used to excuse the UK getting priority for doses produced there, but the same logic can't be applied to the EU for some reason (not that the EU is keeping doses for itself at the expense of others, doses produced in the EU of course are actually supplying several countries).

NeuralNetwork · 18-03-2021 02:32PM

Aegir wrote: »

but how could that happen when Astra Zeneca are controlled by the British government and all their production has to go to them first?

You can think the Serum Institute of India for those doses.

I think what it comes down to largely is the U.K. supply chain is integrated into the EU because it was in the EU until very recently and everything is deeply integrated.

The AstraZeneca supplies for the U.K. seem to be largely coming from EU plants, which would have been exactly what you’d expect in a normal times where all our supply chains are integrated.

I think the Tories have been doing the dance of the flags around this vaccine that is actually a multinational effort in reality & they don’t have significant domestic production capacity but have secured supplies largely from continental contract manufacturing companies, but suggesting that it’s not a Union flag emblazoned entirely Brexit won success story has been politically problematic for them.

The biggest issue I’m seeing is the way the US behaved largely under the Trump administration. They really did just go into America First and screw everyone else more and as a result you’ve had supply chains that would have been taken for granted being put under pressure.

I’d question why EU based plants are seemingly exclusively supplying places like Canada and Mexico for example.

There isn’t an unlimited resource and extra capacity can’t be switched on like a light switch either.

Pete_Cavan · 18-03-2021 02:33PM

Aegir wrote: »

If they had signed with Merck, the US could be sitting on even more vaccines than they are now.

Again, there is no suggestion that there was to be exclusivity in the Merck deal, presumably Oxford wouldn't have negotiated on that basis as they stated that they wouldn't give exclusivity. Why didn't Hancock say you can sign a non-exclusive deal with Merck and sign another with AZ?

Tippbhoy1 · 18-03-2021 02:35PM

robinph wrote: »

And the vast majority of the funding for the Covax scheme is from the UK. Must be fake news I guess?

Indeed it is fake news. The vast majority of covax funding is not from the UK.

Strazdas · 18-03-2021 02:36PM

robinph wrote: »

Yes.

BBC News - Covax vaccine-sharing scheme delivers first doses to Ghana
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-56180161

No, I wasn't talking about the fact that India is manufacturing AZ (commonly known) but that the UK has been importing AstraZeneca doses from them. Pretty sure this is the first time we've heard about this. The UK govt and press are so secretive about this whole vaccination process that it usually takes someone else to reveal it.

Pete_Cavan · 18-03-2021 02:38PM

Aegir wrote: »

but how could that happen when Astra Zeneca are controlled by the British government and all their production has to go to them first?

The UK produced doses are going to the UK only. At the same time, the UK are taking AZ doses (and others) produced elsewhere. The approach is "Whats made here is for us but whats made elsewhere is for everyone including us".

Dyr · 18-03-2021 02:38PM

So the EU has 15 million vaccines that it hasnt administered. While we're all sitting here like patience on a monument waiting for a jab.

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n730

An absolute **** show

18-03-2021 02:40PM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

I think vaccines don't have nationalities regardless of who developed them, what countries/groups of countries funded them or where they are produced.

It seems the Oxford vaccine is considered by some to be a UK vaccine because it was developed there and they received funding from the UK government. This is used to excuse the UK getting priority for doses produced there, but the same logic can't be applied to the EU for some reason (not that the EU is keeping doses for itself at the expense of others, doses produced in the EU of course are actually supplying several countries).

look, all the major vaccine research was funded by multiple governments. they all did it to secure access.

The UK didn't have any vaccine manufacturing capability, so it set about building its own so that Astra Zeneca could produce their vaccine there. They have done the same thing with Novavax and Valneva as well.

it was all about not leaving anything to chance. This wasn't a secret and I have no doubt the EU knew all about it, which is why the initial batches of their order were supposed to be made in the EU.

Tippbhoy1 · 18-03-2021 02:42PM

Strazdas wrote: »

No, I wasn't talking about the fact that India is manufacturing AZ (commonly known) but that the UK has been importing AstraZeneca doses from them. Pretty sure this is the first time we've heard about this. The UK govt and press are so secretive about this whole vaccination process that it usually takes someone else to reveal it.

My recollection is they announced a deal with the SII a few weeks back, around the same time AZ were starting to steer the EU off to India as well. I think the speed with which the UK have got some of this, and the fact that it’s had such an apparent impact so suddenly is definitely a surprise.

NeuralNetwork · 18-03-2021 02:42PM

Tippbhoy1 wrote: »

Indeed it is fake news. The vast majority of covax funding is not from the UK.

EU & EU member state contributions to COVAX so far (not just pledges) are worth approximately $2.6 billion last time I saw figures.

Bear in mind not all EU funding to these programmes goes though the European Commission. It isn’t a federal government with taxation powers and a huge budget. So that’s an element of coordinating 27 members to provide funding.

The US has pledged $4bn and I would suspect EU & EU members will probably increase their contributions both financially and in terms of supply, when those are available.

There’s genuinely a huge capacity due to come on line in the EU, so you’ll probably be looking at the EU having produced a couple of billion doses this year.

Pablo Escobar · 18-03-2021 02:42PM

Bambi wrote: »

So the EU has 15 million vaccines that it hasnt administered. While we're all sitting here like patience on a monument waiting for a jab.

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n730

An absolute **** show

That's less than 2 weeks supply at current rates. 1-2 weeks is prudent and it has gone to 2 weeks likely because of AZ. Plus you'll have doses being kept for dose 2 phasing. This really is a "nothing to see here" issue.

18-03-2021 02:44PM

Tippbhoy1 wrote: »

My recollection is they announced a deal with the SII a few weeks back, around the same time AZ were starting to steer the EU off to India as well. I think the speed with which the UK have got some of this, and the fact that it’s had such an apparent impact so suddenly is definitely a surprise.

SII already produce a huge amount of other vaccines for the UK, so the approval process was fairly quick from what I gather.

Strazdas · 18-03-2021 02:48PM

Tippbhoy1 wrote: »

My recollection is they announced a deal with the SII a few weeks back, around the same time AZ were starting to steer the EU off to India as well. I think the speed with which the UK have got some of this, and the fact that it’s had such an apparent impact so suddenly is definitely a surprise.

Yes, I read about the 10m AZ doses being ordered from India recently but I was under the distinct impression this referred to a future order, something that would start in April or May.

NeuralNetwork · 18-03-2021 02:48PM

The issue is that the SII has pressing demand in India ans in developing world countries with huge needs. The U.K. has partially competed its vaccine drive, so you’ll get prioritisation of where it goes.

Does it make sense to sell vaccines to the U.K. to vaccinate people who are now largely not at risk groups - under 50s etc and in a rich country, with relatively less issues around social distancing, work from home and a very comprehensive public health system, or does it make more sense to rollout mass vaccination in India where levels have been relatively much lower and the vaccine may be the only line of defence for many people?

Those are the kind of decisions that will be made.

robinph · 18-03-2021 02:51PM

Tippbhoy1 wrote: »

Indeed it is fake news. The vast majority of covax funding is not from the UK.

Out of $1.7 billion pledged in October...

The United Kingdom pledged up to £ 500 million (approximately US$ 640 million) to the Gavi COVAX AMC. This commitment includes £1 in matched funding for every US$ 4 committed by others, to an amount up to £250 million. This is in addition to an earlier US$ 61 million pledged by the United Kingdom for the COVAX AMC at the Global Vaccine Summit on June 4, bringing the total contribution to US$ 701 million.

https://www.gavi.org/news/media-room/countries-pledge-nearly-us-1-billion-support-equitable-access-covid-19-vaccines

Seems the numbers have moved on a bit more since then and the US has now decided to stump up some cash as well, but until they found $4bn behind the back of the sofa/ were shamed into action, the UK was by far the biggest contributor:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-55795297

NeuralNetwork · 18-03-2021 02:57PM

In general, those funds aren’t going to go short. There seems to be plenty of money coming in from wealthier countries and more will come in in terms of production capacity too, as it ramps up.

You can carve to figures in many ways to make the EU members look less generous than they are, by only looking at the Commission donation.

There’s also considerable money coming in from private philanthropy and I think given the extreme wealth of many corporations, they really need to reach into those pockets and fund this more too. It’s not something that anyone should be shirking responsibility for.

Wolf359f · 18-03-2021 03:02PM

robinph wrote: »

Out of $1.7 billion pledged in October...

https://www.gavi.org/news/media-room/countries-pledge-nearly-us-1-billion-support-equitable-access-covid-19-vaccines

Seems the numbers have moved on a bit more since then and the US has now decided to stump up some cash as well, but until they found $4bn behind the back of the sofa/ were shamed into action, the UK was by far the biggest contributor:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-55795297

Update figures here:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVAX
Looks like USA and Germany are the 2 biggest contributers. You could add up all the EU countries and add it to the EC to get an EU figure.

NeuralNetwork · 18-03-2021 03:17PM

Ireland pledged €18m / $21m to Gavi back in May.

To scale that up on population basis would be about $295 million if we had a U.K. scale of pop, or $1.4bn if we were on US scale.

Pete_Cavan · 18-03-2021 03:22PM

Aegir wrote: »

look, all the major vaccine research was funded by multiple governments. they all did it to secure access.

The UK didn't have any vaccine manufacturing capability, so it set about building its own so that Astra Zeneca could produce their vaccine there. They have done the same thing with Novavax and Valneva as well.

it was all about not leaving anything to chance. This wasn't a secret and I have no doubt the EU knew all about it, which is why the initial batches of their order were supposed to be made in the EU.

We are seeing now that the UK production isn't all that great, when they stopped getting supplied from Halix they went to SII but only got half of what they ordered and are now having to slow down. AZ seem to be looking after them everywhere, even at the expense of other customers (not applying for approval from EMA for one of the two plants named in its EU contract).

We are seeing now that the UK are hugely reliant on others. There is nothing wrong with that, thats the nature of the world we live in, but there are some who seem to think that the UK is going it alone. The EU funded vaccine development and manufacturing capability too but didn't look to do so to the benefit of only itself. I don't see how you can claim the UK didn't leave anything to chance, given how reliant they are on imported vaccines. Huge volumes are being produced in the EU and the EU is not preventing them from being exported, if that were to change, the UK would be screwed.

The EU clearly didn't know of any priority clause AZ had with the UK, AZ even confirmed in the contract that they had no other contracts which would impede them meeting commitments to the EU. It'll be interesting to see AZ try to argue it's "best reasonable efforts" when they haven't apply for approval for half their EU manufacturing capacity 7 months after getting upfront €336m to create that capacity.

fly_agaric · 18-03-2021 03:31PM

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

The biggest issue I’m seeing is the way the US behaved largely under the Trump administration. They really did just go into America First and screw everyone else more and as a result you’ve had supply chains that would have been taken for granted being put under pressure.
I’d question why EU based plants are seemingly exclusively supplying places like Canada and Mexico for example.

Things would definitely be under strain anyway given demand for these vaccines but that does appear to be another pile of shíte left over from Trump (if US / Western Europe are the 2 main centres for the large MNCs production of vaccines and one is locked off for "home" use).

It can't be unwound easily either because it would slow down the US vaccination programme somewhat and Biden + the Democrats would be crucified immediately for it by the Trump Republican Party.

The Biden Admin. may get away with "sending" some vaccines the way of their nearest neighbours (Mexico and Canada) before the US completes its programme but that is it I'd say.

Strazdas · 18-03-2021 03:36PM

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

The issue is that the SII has pressing demand in India ans in developing world countries with huge needs. The U.K. has partially competed its vaccine drive, so you’ll get prioritisation of where it goes.

Does it make sense to sell vaccines to the U.K. to vaccinate people who are now largely not at risk groups - under 50s etc and in a rich country, with relatively less issues around social distancing, work from home and a very comprehensive public health system, or does it make more sense to rollout mass vaccination in India where levels have been relatively much lower and the vaccine may be the only line of defence for many people?

Those are the kind of decisions that will be made.

Yes, you can make the case for first world countries exporting vaccines to each other, but a country like India manufacturing doses and then sending them to the UK is a bit more problematic and hard to justify (I would say the same if they were being sent to Ireland).

NeuralNetwork · 18-03-2021 03:44PM

A lot of these issues will get into moral dilemmas until there’s much more global supply.

The reality of it is, while the EU is a bit behind the US and U.K., we will still be way ahead of much of the world, including many similarly wealthy regions, in terms of getting the vaccination programme to a population wide rollout by the end of the summer or early autumn.

A lot of places will be lucky to get it complete by summer 2022 and some in the developing world may be looking at 2023 or even beyond.

Melanchthon · 18-03-2021 04:06PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, you can make the case for first world countries exporting vaccines to each other, but a country like India manufacturing doses and then sending them to the UK is a bit more problematic and hard to justify (I would say the same if they were being sent to Ireland).

That's true but doesn't the serum institute supply the first world with vaccine in normal times as well.
Also they were supplying the very wealthy gulf states too with Covid vaccine I think.

On a different topic the Helix plant and approval seems genuinely dodgy and this is coming from someone who has defended astra zeneca at times.

Additionally what's happening with the UK and Moderna? They have a small enough order in but I haven't seen anything about it being supplied at all?

Frank Bullitt · 18-03-2021 04:11PM

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1372579833289576449

Dempo1 · 18-03-2021 04:34PM

So the EMA has spoken but is it a bit of, Yes, But no, But yes? Kind of recommendation. They are unable to rule out anything and as if this wasn't concerning enough, The UK health authority are now making some new recommendations relating to Headaches and additional bruising in relation to those vaccinated with AZ. Call me a sceptic but this is not entirely convincing stuff. I'm absolutely pro vaccine and have doubts, this is not at all going to increase confidence, I may be wrong but.........

What exactly is happening with AstraZeneca?

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