Scottish independence

BonnieSituation · 15-03-2021 3:42am

Peregrinus wrote: »

While the single-party Tory governments the UK has had since then have been unremittingly awful, each worse than the last.

I can't wait for the next one. Hopefully the last one the UK ever has.

First Up · 15-03-2021 8:28am

Peregrinus wrote:

Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland (among others) have proved that you can have perfectly functional coalition governments.

All of which are established and proven political and economic entities. An independent Scotland will be neither.

Scotland has to prove that it can cope with separation from the UK which takes 60% of it's exports and through which it sends half the rest. All while finding its way in the world as an independent country.

This is not a game. Capital is mobile and capital goes where it is made most welcome.

No time for political experiments.

Peregrinus · 15-03-2021 8:43am

First Up wrote: »

All of which are established and proven political and economic entities. An independent Scotland will be neither.

Scotland has to prove that it can cope with separation from the UK which takes 60% of it's exports and through which it sends half the rest. All while finding its way in the world as an independent country.

This is not a game. Capital is mobile and capital goes where it is made most welcome.

No time for political experiments.

Independence is a political experiment. On this reasoning no country would ever seek independnce from a larger union.

But the reality is that Europe is largely made up of countries that left larger unions to be come independent. So clearly this consideration is not something which, in the real world, systematically prevents countries from seeking and achieving independence.

For the record, I think the notion that a post-independence realignment of the party system in Scotland will lead to a flight of capital is just silly. Political party realignments are a common occurrence; off the top of my head I can't think of any that led to a crisis of investor confidence and a flight of capital.

First Up · 15-03-2021 9:19am

Peregrinus wrote:

But the reality is that Europe is largely made up of countries that left larger unions to be come independent. So clearly this consideration is not something which, in the real world, systematically prevents countries from seeking and achieving independence.

They all did so when global trade and capital movement was a tiny fraction of what it is today.

Every business (local or foreign owned) in Scotland will be inundated with offers to move south if their business depends on England, or to an EU country (including Ireland) if they have wider ambition. Any uncertainty in Scotland will add to that.

Peregrinus · 15-03-2021 9:28am

First Up wrote: »

They all did so when global trade and capital movement was a tiny fraction of what it is today.

Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, all became independent between the signing of the Single European Act and the signing of the Maastricht Treaty, and Slovakia and the Czech Republic after the Maastricht Treaty. This isn't ancient history at all.

First Up wrote: »

Every business (local or foreign owned) in Scotland will be inundated with offers to move south if their business depends on England, or to an EU country (including Ireland) if they have wider ambition. Any uncertainty in Scotland will add to that.

There's a real issue here but, trust me, party realignments are not going to make a material difference to it. That's a giant red herring. Any decisions of the kind you contemplate are likely to be made long before the expected party realignment starts to unfold. And, anyway, party realignments are not scary things for investors.

As for businesses being tempted to recolate from Scotland to an EU country, that temptation already exists, obviously. If anything, independence reduces the tempation, since there'd be a strong expectation that Scotland would rejoin the EU, making relocation for an EU-facing business unecessary.

So, when you strip away the nonsense, the real issue is the incentive for English-facing businesses in Scotland (and Welsh- and NI-facing businesses, but there aren't so many of those) to relocate to rump-UK. That certainly needs to be carefully looked at. It's not going to be materially affected by party realignments in Scotland, but it is going to be materially affected by the terms of separation agreed between Scotland and rump-UK. The big unknown here is not the likely position of the Scottish government in the negatiatons about separation, but the likely position of the UK government.

First Up · 15-03-2021 10:25am

Peregrinus wrote:

Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, all became independent between the signing of the Single European Act and the signing of the Maastricht Treaty, and Slovakia and the Czech Republic after the Maastricht Treaty. This isn't ancient history at all.

None were competing with their former big brothers and all had significant EU support.

Peregrinus wrote:

There's a real issue here but, trust me, party realignments are not going to make a material difference to it. That's a giant red herring. Any decisions of the kind you contemplate are likely to be made long before the expected party realignment starts to unfold. And, anyway, party realignments are not scary things for investors.

The issue isn't party realignment per se. It is the risk of uncertainty over policy and market access while they sort it out.

Peregrinus wrote:

As for businesses being tempted to recolate from Scotland to an EU country, that temptation already exists, obviously. If anything, independence reduces the tempation, since there'd be a strong expectation that Scotland would rejoin the EU, making relocation for an EU-facing business unecessary.

Expectation yes; but no certainty and no timeline. There is also the not insignificant matter of getting through the UK to get to the EU.

Peregrinus wrote:

The big unknown here is not the likely position of the Scottish government in the negatiatons about separation, but the likely position of the UK government.

They are both unknowns but Scotland has control over one of them. This is all about competitive advantage.

BonnieSituation · 15-03-2021 10:39am

First Up wrote: »

All of which are established and proven political and economic entities. An independent Scotland will be neither.

Scotland has to prove that it can cope with separation from the UK which takes 60% of it's exports and through which it sends half the rest. All while finding its way in the world as an independent country.

This is not a game. Capital is mobile and capital goes where it is made most welcome.

No time for political experiments.

You really are one for finding the negatives in almost anything.

You do realise that the Scottish parliament is elected using the Additional Member system? It was specifically employed to hamstring the SNP and to ensure coalition and consensus government.

The current government like the one previous, are a minority and are governing with help from the Greens.

No my memory isn't that great, but I just can't think of anywhere that was governed like that at all the last few years on either island... Can you?

Scottish politics isn't as adversarial as you seem to think it is.

They've a natural inclination to consensus and liberal and social democracy than their neighbours to the south.

The idea that "now is not the time" is an old imperial and unionist trope to ensure that the wishes of the people are ignored with impunity.

Ireland's experience at the hands of this attitude should make you wary of such antics.

BonnieSituation · 15-03-2021 10:41am

Peregrinus wrote: »

Independence is a political experiment. On this reasoning no country would ever seek independnce from a larger union.

But the reality is that Europe is largely made up of countries that left larger unions to be come independent. So clearly this consideration is not something which, in the real world, systematically prevents countries from seeking and achieving independence.

For the record, I think the notion that a post-independence realignment of the party system in Scotland will lead to a flight of capital is just silly. Political party realignments are a common occurrence; off the top of my head I can't think of any that led to a crisis of investor confidence and a flight of capital.

Political realignment and renewal is the norm in almost all European countries.

Ireland and Britain are the odd men out with such long existing behemoths where it's difficult for alternatives to break through.

En marche!

BonnieSituation · 15-03-2021 10:45am

First Up wrote: »

They all did so when global trade and capital movement was a tiny fraction of what it is today.

Every business (local or foreign owned) in Scotland will be inundated with offers to move south if their business depends on England, or to an EU country (including Ireland) if they have wider ambition. Any uncertainty in Scotland will add to that.

You're starting to reach Helen Lovejoy-esque levels of concern for capital flight from an independent Scotland. Honestly, do you really think that businesses will just shut up shop on the success of a Yes vote?

Maybe Tunnocks might?

You've been pushing the same capital flight 'argument' for pages now. We get it, no one's allowed to aspire to leave the UK. It's too late now. Everything must stay as it is forevermore.

First Up · 15-03-2021 10:58am

BonnieSituation wrote:

You really are one for finding the negatives in almost anything.

The sooner they are recognised and addressed, the less negative they can be. Hoping they go away isn't a solution.

Industrialists, investors and the money markets are not interested in the finer details of electoral systems or parliamentary structures. They want straight answers to straight questions and they want to know who to ask. If that isn't clear, they might go somewhere else where there are people happy to answer them.

First Up · 15-03-2021 11:01am

BonnieSituation wrote:

You've been pushing the same capital flight 'argument' for pages now. We get it, no one's allowed to aspire to leave the UK. It's too late now. Everything must stay as it is forevermore.

If you looked at the points I am making instead of inventing arguments I am not, we would have a better discussion.

serfboard · 15-03-2021 1:51pm

First Up wrote: »

Industrialists, investors and the money markets are not interested in the finer details of electoral systems or parliamentary structures. They want straight answers to straight questions and they want to know who to ask.

I would be very surprised if the SNP aren't having regular discussions with business groups already, considering that they are in government in Scotland.

But in discussions about an independent Scotland first, they'll have to get a referendum, second it'll have to pass and third there will be a transition between a vote for independence and actual independence. In each of those stages, I would expect the talks with business groups to intensify, and their concerns to be addressed.

However, they cannot provide absolute certainty since that is impossible. The outcome of talks between a newly independent Scotland and rUK cannot be known until those talks are held and concluded.

First Up · 15-03-2021 2:42pm

serfboard wrote:

I would be very surprised if the SNP aren't having regular discussions with business groups already, considering that they are in government in Scotland.

I expect business groups are making all parties aware of their concerns. That will help but the SNP will need a plan to address them as part of their referendum campaign.

serfboard wrote:

But in discussions about an independent Scotland first, they'll have to get a referendum, second it'll have to pass and third there will be a transition between a vote for independence and actual independence. In each of those stages, I would expect the talks with business groups to intensify, and their concerns to be addressed.

Put those in reverse order and you would have the bones of a plan.

serfboard wrote:

However, they cannot provide absolute certainty since that is impossible. The outcome of talks between a newly independent Scotland and rUK cannot be known until those talks are held and concluded.

That will be the trickiest bit but it doesn't stop them getting ready. That has to start with building political consensus and sending a clear message to both the international political and business audiences.

Studying the example of Brexit and then doing the complete opposite would be a good way to do it. There's even a good chance the Scottish electorate would know what they were voting for.

Sam Russell · 15-03-2021 2:54pm

First Up wrote: »

I expect business groups are making all parties aware of their concerns. That will help but the SNP will need a plan to address them as part of their referendum campaign.

Put those in reverse order and you would have the bones of a plan.

That will be the trickiest bit but it doesn't stop them getting ready. That has to start with building political consensus and sending a clear message to both the international political and business audiences.

Studying the example of Brexit and then doing the complete opposite would be a good way to do it. There's even a good chance the Scottish electorate would know what they were voting for.

I think they did when they voted in the Brexit referendum. They are not that stupid.

Peregrinus · 16-03-2021 2:14am

First Up wrote: »

The sooner they are recognised and addressed, the less negative they can be. Hoping they go away isn't a solution.

Industrialists, investors and the money markets are not interested in the finer details of electoral systems or parliamentary structures.

Fine. So we can agree at least that industrialists, investors and the money markets will be wholly unconcerned by the prospect of a realignment of the Scottish political party landscape, and on the strength of that agreement we need never mention this massive red herring ever again.

First Up wrote: »

They want straight answers to straight questions and they want to know who to ask. If that isn't clear, they might go somewhere else where there are people happy to answer them.

In a democracy, straight answers to straight questions about government policies are good for a max of five years - mostly less.

The markets adapt to this uncertainty. That's what markets do.

Obviously, if there's a prospect of Scottish independence, they'll want to know what indy Scotland's industrial, investment, etc policies are likely to be.

But it's not as though this is a complete blank slate. The Scottish government already has industrial, investment, etc, and opposition parties in Scotland have their own perspectives on these. Looking at that, and talking to the people concerned, you can project how those policies might develop or modify with the greater freedom that comes with independence, and with the new chalenges.

You won't look for a cast-iron guarantee as to future policy. Even if a political party was stupid enough to offer you one, you wouldn't be stupid enough to take it at face value, because - party realignment or no party realignment - that political party might not be in office after the next election. Just like in any other democracy.

Your nightmare scenario for a Scottish independence campaign is that it would be as badly conducted as Brexit has been. There has been no party realignment in the UK, but fûck knows what future industrial, investment, etc policy is going to be, because all we've had for the past five years has been negative positioning - loud complaints about what the UK doesn't want, but no clear thinking, and certainly no consensus even within the government party, about what it does. The markets have adapted to that, because that's what markets do, and the adaptation has included a collapse in foreign direct investment, a cratering of domestic investment and a significant transfer of capital abroad.

But there are good reasons for thinking that the strategy of abandoning policy in favour of a blend of toddler anger and magical thinking will not be embraced in a future Scottish independence referendum. First, that's not what happened in 2103/14. Secondly, the Scots Nats are a serious party of government with signficant experience in office, which is more than you could say of Vote Leave or the members of the ERG. Thirdly, who, having watched the shambolic parade of ineptitude, incompetence and disaster that is Brexit, would seek to emulate it? Especially when the shambles of Brexit has been the main driver for the resurgence of Scottish independence?

So, yeah. Thinking that Scottish progress to independence will be in any way modelled on the UK's progress to Brexit ignores the fact that one of the main reasons that the Scots might want independence is to escape from the UK's progress to Brexit. As you point out yourself, the canny thing do to here is to look at what Brexiters did, and do the exact opposite. But it's even cannier to realise that (a) everyone can see this; it's not some unique insight with which only a remarkable few are gifted; and (b) this would be the Scots Nats instinct anyway, and the Scots Tories, and Scottish Labour, and the Greens. None of them are remotely Brexity or Ukippy.

So, there'll be serious conversations about Scottish industrial and investment policy. Industrialists and investors will be involved in those conversations and will be listened to. Indy Scotland will probably offer them a more certain policy climate that Brexit Britain does. That's not to say there won't be challenges, arising out of Scotland's geographical position and its current trade dependence on a hollowed-out and failing UK. But if Scotland doesn't choose independence it's even more dependenent on HOFUK, as industrialist and investors will be well aware. Whichever set of problems Scotland chooses, the markets will adapt; that's the whole point of markets.

First Up · 16-03-2021 8:11am

Peregrinus wrote:

Fine. So we can agree at least that industrialists, investors and the money markets will be wholly unconcerned by the prospect of a realignment of the Scottish political party landscape, and on the strength of that agreement we need never mention this massive red herring ever again.

You are free to ignore anything you don't like. For Scotland's sake, I hope their government doesn't.

Peregrinus · 16-03-2021 8:29am

First Up wrote: »

You are free to ignore anything you don't like. For Scotland's sake, I hope their government doesn't.

There is nothing the Scottish government can do to prevent a realignment of Scottish political parties. In a democracy, political parties control the government; not the other way around.

I think you're jumping at shadows here.

First Up · 16-03-2021 9:37am

Peregrinus wrote:

I think you're jumping at shadows here.

Could be, or it could be that with independence achieved, the SNP will fragment. Or it could be that cutting the Labour, Lib Dems and Tory parties links with their mother ships will cause them to scatter in various directions. Meanwhile, industry will want to know what's ahead.

Somebody needs to be thinking about it.

BonnieSituation · 16-03-2021 10:19am

First Up wrote: »

Could be, or it could be that with independence achieved, the SNP will fragment. Or it could be that cutting the Labour, Lib Dems and Tory parties links with their mother ships will cause them to scatter in various directions. Meanwhile, industry will want to know what's ahead.

Somebody needs to be thinking about it.

You're doing enough thinking about this hypothetical scenario for all of us.

I can't believe that after Peregrinus' lengthy, informative and well-informed post above, that all you have had to say is the equivalent of "yeah, well". Again.

What do you want the rest of us to say?

BonnieSituation · 16-03-2021 10:27am

First Up wrote: »

If you looked at the points I am making instead of inventing arguments I am not, we would have a better discussion.

This is very rich from a man who is harping on continuously about hypothetical capital flight from hypothetical industrialists' in the hypothetical event that an independent Scotland's first notable political event is a hypothetical realignment of their political parties.

But no, it is I that is inventing arguments here.

First Up · 16-03-2021 11:30am

BonnieSituation wrote: »

This is very rich from a man who is harping on continuously about hypothetical capital flight from hypothetical industrialists' in the hypothetical event that an independent Scotland's first notable political event is a hypothetical realignment of their political parties.

But no, it is I that is inventing arguments here.

The point I am trying to make is obviously eluding you. It eluded the Brexiteers too. Have you noticed the similarities?

ancapailldorcha · 16-03-2021 11:31am

BonnieSituation wrote: »

This is very rich from a man who is harping on continuously about hypothetical capital flight from hypothetical industrialists' in the hypothetical event that an independent Scotland's first notable political event is a hypothetical realignment of their political parties.

But no, it is I that is inventing arguments here.

First Up wrote: »

The point I am trying to make is obviously eluding you. It eluded the Brexiteers too. Have you noticed the similarities?

Posts like these are below the forum standard. Either post constructively or not at all please.

PommieBast · 22-03-2021 2:25pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

So much so they brought in the FTP Act to stop the LDs legging it at the first sight of trouble.

Other way round. It was the LDs who insisted on it.

Mr.Nice Guy · 22-03-2021 5:40pm

Big boost for Sturgeon:

https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/1374036694677258245

Leonard Hofstadter · 22-03-2021 5:51pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Big boost for Sturgeon:

https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/1374036694677258245

Indeed, makes the hysterics of the Tories and Ruth Davidson in particular the past few days look completely ridiculous now. Hopefully it will see a bounce in the polls for Sturgeon, she's a bit too left wing for me but I think she is easily the most impressive politician in the UK right now, such a breath of fresh air besides the Tories and Boris in particular.

pixelburp · 22-03-2021 5:52pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Big boost for Sturgeon:

https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/1374036694677258245

I'm sure it'll be reported in the English press with the same prominence the accusations received. Derisive snort.

Should make the next polls or two interesting, though as we know in politics, just being near a controversy, without actually being part of it, can leave a stink.

Capt'n Midnight · 22-03-2021 5:54pm

Indyref2 on the cards now

Scottish independence: Draft bill for indyref2 published

It wants to hold indyref2 after the pandemic but "in the first half of the new parliamentary term".

The SNP says it will attempt to pass the bill if May's election returns a majority of MSPs who back independence.

...
Ms Sturgeon has not ruled out going to court to settle the question of whether Holyrood could legislate for a legal referendum without Westminster's backing.

ancapailldorcha · 22-03-2021 5:56pm

I don't see how that suggests that it's "on the cards". They need Johnson's assent and he won't give it.

Mr.Nice Guy · 22-03-2021 6:17pm

The Greens have confirmed they won't support a Tory no-confidence motion following today's outcome.

https://twitter.com/lynseybews/status/1374041495553118209

Interesting to see what the Scottish Tories' strategy will be now. Do they continue the attacks on Sturgeon, or will they cool off?

Water John · 22-03-2021 6:48pm

If an ind inquiry means anything the Scot Tories should respect the outcome.
For us in Ireland, he has credence as a former AG here.

BonnieSituation · 22-03-2021 7:57pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't see how that suggests that it's "on the cards". They need Johnson's assent and he won't give it.

It's on the cards by virtue of them publishing the bill and then seeking a mandate in May's elections.

That BJ won't assent is neither here nor there.
The Scottish Government can only work within the democratic institutions that exist.

The shambles of the Tory attacks on Sturgeon and the SNP the last month show exactly the sort of approach that will continue.

Every week at PMQ's, no matter what the question from Ian Blackford, Johnson ends his 'answer' with, "...and the the SNP just want a divisive referendum". The contempt that Scotland has been treated with by the Tories means that we know that they'll cry about this in the fashion that they have, but with it being published, they have to ask questions on it now that it's on the cards.

Larbre34 · 22-03-2021 8:00pm

Water John wrote: »

If an ind inquiry means anything the Scot Tories should respect the outcome.
For us in Ireland, he has credence as a former AG here.

Former DPP, he was never AG.

He did head the AGs office, which is say to he was a senior Civil Servant as opposed to the AG herself, who is a Government appointment to Cabinet.

Markcheese · 23-03-2021 8:12am

What would scottish independence do to brexit ?
I'm assuming it wouldn't derail it , scotland is a relatively small economy compared to england/uk ,
And considering how much of it's trade scotland does with the rest of the uk , I assuming that joining the eu would be economically difficult .. at least to start with ,

rock22 · 23-03-2021 9:32am

pixelburp wrote: »

I'm sure it'll be reported in the English press with the same prominence the accusations received. Derisive snort.

Should make the next polls or two interesting, though as we know in politics, just being near a controversy, without actually being part of it, can leave a stink.

Sadly , the English media are now reporting the same old story as "breaking news"

I suspect there will be a huge effort to demonise SNP coming up to the elections in May

Water John · 23-03-2021 9:58am

Markcheese wrote: »

What would scottish independence do to brexit ?
I'm assuming it wouldn't derail it , scotland is a relatively small economy compared to england/uk ,
And considering how much of it's trade scotland does with the rest of the uk , I assuming that joining the eu would be economically difficult .. at least to start with ,

I would think Scotland would join the EEA, quite quickly.

ancapailldorcha · 23-03-2021 11:09am

Markcheese wrote: »

What would scottish independence do to brexit ?
I'm assuming it wouldn't derail it , scotland is a relatively small economy compared to england/uk ,
And considering how much of it's trade scotland does with the rest of the uk , I assuming that joining the eu would be economically difficult .. at least to start with ,

Nothing to be honest. Brexit is an English (& Welsh) decision. Scotland will have to negotiate with the English and see what sort of deal can be done while having talks with the EU but the London-Brussels relationship will continue unaltered and unimpeded.

BonnieSituation · 23-03-2021 11:17am

rock22 wrote: »

Sadly , the English media are now reporting the same old story as "breaking news"

I suspect there will be a huge effort to demonise SNP coming up to the elections in May

That's an impressive twist on that story from the Guardian. Well played.

Sam Russell · 23-03-2021 12:02pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That's an impressive twist on that story from the Guardian. Well played.

Does the Guardian have much readership in Scotland?

BonnieSituation · 23-03-2021 12:48pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That's an impressive twist on that story from the Guardian. Well played.

TBF, I misread that story. Seems there was another committee vote that was separate to the report yesterday.

Given that the vote broke along party lines, it's hard to know what to take from it.

There's no new information to come out of it anyway.

Water John · 23-03-2021 1:12pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

TBF, I misread that story. Seems there was another committee vote that was separate to the report yesterday.

Given that the vote broke along party lines, it's hard to know what to take from it.

There's no new information to come out of it anyway.

That's the Committee whose report was leaked. Opposition have majority on it and no matter what Sturgeon's evidence was, they seemed to have made up their minds before it. Basically they formed the opinion that Sturgeon must have known, as they believe it unlikely that she did not know what her leader was up to.

BonnieSituation · 23-03-2021 1:29pm

Water John wrote: »

That's the Committee whose report was leaked. Opposition have majority on it and no matter what Sturgeon's evidence was, they seemed to have made up their minds before it. Basically they formed the opinion that Sturgeon must have known, as they believe it unlikely that she did not know what her leader was up to.

Exactly. As I said, it broke along party lines, so very little that you can take from it.

Mr.Nice Guy · 24-03-2021 11:09pm

This is the latest Conservative idea to bind the Union together:

https://twitter.com/BBCScotlandNews/status/1374785263851995136

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1374760252567093251

It won't apply to NI because even the Tories seemingly know that's a can of worms not to open.

Not sure this idea will work out well in Scotland. I don't get the impression the electorate will be too keen on stunts like this. The SNP's response:

'If the Tories think an overload of Union Jacks on buildings is the answer to promote the strength of the Union, it shows how thin the case for the Union is."

BonnieSituation · 24-03-2021 11:22pm

The SNP's response is bang on. It's exactly how I feel when I come across fervent Unionists who post like scared cats.

I was hoping they'd be thick-headed and oblivious enough to try this in the North. Dang.

bob mcbob · 24-03-2021 11:30pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

This is the latest Conservative idea to bind the Union together:

https://twitter.com/BBCScotlandNews/status/1374785263851995136

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1374760252567093251

It won't apply to NI because even the Tories seemingly know that's a can of worms not to open.

Not sure this idea will work out well in Scotland. I don't get the impression the electorate will be too keen on stunts like this. The SNP's response:

I think this article in the Guardian sums things up for me -

One of the most self-contradictory aspects of the government’s hyper-unionism is the way it clearly plays to English resentments, raising the flag to declare war on the perfidious Scots, and thereby deepening the UK’s fault lines.

Shall we at last face the facts? Even if the institutions of the United Kingdom creak on unchanged or are somehow saved by a new federalism, as a meaningful political entity the UK is all but over. Independence is partly a state of mind, and for very different reasons, a large number of people in Scotland, Wales and England have got there already. So, aside from its use whenever the Olympics come round, the union jack may be beyond rescue – best left to the kind of opportunists who think they can use it as they please but fail to grasp the downsides.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/21/british-politicians-union-jack-flag

Leonard Hofstadter · 26-03-2021 3:08pm

I see Alex Salmond is going to set up a new party called 'Alba'. Obviously it's going to be campaigning in favour of independence.

Anyone here think it's got a chance of taking votes from Sturgeon and the SNP in the upcoming elections?

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19190356.alex-salmond-lead-new-alba-party-scottish-parliament-election/

A Dub in Glasgo · 26-03-2021 3:46pm

It is standing only on the list vote so no chance of taking votes off the SNP in the constituency vote. The list uses the D'Hont method to calculate the seats so a list only party contesting the regional seats could win seats, however these will be at the expense of the other independence parties (SNP, Greens, AFI and ISP). Up to now, the Greens have supplemented the SNP to provide the pro-independence majority in parliament.

The problem here is there are too many options on the list and it risks splitting the whole thing. We might see consolidation amongst the newer pro-independence parties. The real issue for the SNP is if they do not do as well on the constituecy vote, they may not get enough top up list seats as the independence vote is split. In all honesty, the SNP have allowed this to happen by driving out dissention in the SNP and narrowing the independence message

Water John · 26-03-2021 4:01pm

Is Alba to be a personality party? Besides for indy what will be its policies? Nothing wrong with him doing it, but it needs to add to the mix not subtract.

A Dub in Glasgo · 26-03-2021 4:43pm

In addition to my post above, I looked into it a bit more and found this and it would not appear to harm the independence parties as much as I said earlier. Could be an interesting result

https://twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1375461477834973184

Larbre34 · 26-03-2021 11:21pm

Salmond is only doing this so the SNP *might* have to come begging to him for things down the line. Personally I don't think he has a hope. Its too late to build anything for this election and too long to survive until the next Westminster poll. Why would any ambitious indy head associate with anyone but the SNP?

Leonard Hofstadter · 26-03-2021 11:40pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

In addition to my post above, I looked into it a bit more and found this and it would not appear to harm the independence parties as much as I said earlier. Could be an interesting result

https://twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1375461477834973184

So it sounds like if anything, the entry of this party is more likely to damage the unionist parties and thus the parties in favour of another referendum are going to have no trouble getting a majority of the seats in Holyrood, or have I misunderstood?

Scottish independence

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