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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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  • #5372
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,634 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Graham wrote: »
    Yes.

    I understand how exponential growth works.

    Clearly not if you think leaving level 5 will lead to exponential growth.
    We can open up and still have an R0 of 1 or below, we have done it last year (with no vaccines) so there is no reason why we cannot this year.

    Statements like yours could do with a fact check.


  • #5373
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    timmyntc wrote: »
    People are trynig to justify the harshest & longest restrictions in Europe as "making sure this is the last lockdown" - ok, so instead of having more time with our economy functioning in some degree, we keep it all shut down for longer so that we dont have to shut it down again

    Now you're getting it

    timmyntc wrote: »
    Well I have an idea, if we never come out of lockdown and stay in it perpetually, it will guarantee that this is the last lockdown. What could possibly go wrong.

    Obviously that's just silly.


  • #5374
    shtpEdthePlum
    Closed Accounts Posts: 556 ✭✭✭shtpEdthePlum


    DellyBelly wrote: »
    That's the attitude that is keeping us in lockdown I'm afraid..
    Also is it worth getting a fine for attempting to go to the beach. To be alright with that you'd have to be earning a similar salary to the people for whom lockdown doesn't apply (politicians, media)... Then you wouldn't be worrying about a fine. It's 100% a two-tier system. One rule for us, another for then. The cards are always stacked that way, it's just much more unpalatable when so many rights have been completely obliterated.


  • #5375
    JRant
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,236 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    Graham wrote: »
    Yes.

    I understand how exponential growth works.

    And what would your indicators be to allow even a modicum of society to open up again?

    Personally, I think we should be moving to level 3 in April. All the numbers are pointing towards numbers being very manageable at that stage.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • #5376
    UsBus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,390 ✭✭✭UsBus


    thebaz wrote: »
    The reality is though , that all opposition parties support the government action, whilst some are preposing zero covid . But it is a worry if next year or any other year we get a bad flu, NPHET and the likes will be calling for lockdown.

    This is a real concern now alright. A lot of precedents have been set over the past year, some going completely unnoticed until its too late.
    I'm trying to understand where the fury of the water protests has gone. They threaten a fee for maintaining a water system (whatever about the way they went about it) and all hell breaks loose.
    Now they have removed people's freedom and apart from the odd protest, very little uproar. It's like the previous 12 months have broken the countries morale.

    The idea that life will get back to normal is slipping away. The old routines are being forgotten.


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  • #5377
    OwenM
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 860 ✭✭✭OwenM


    Graham wrote: »
    Yes.

    I understand how exponential growth works.

    Very simplistic analysis, cases might grow exponentially but deaths and serious illness will not given the numbers that are and will be vaccinated and the cohorts they belong to over the course of your exponential apocalypse. Also it's not xmas week, so the curve seen in late December is unlikely to repeat even for cases.


  • #5378
    OwenM
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 860 ✭✭✭OwenM


    UsBus wrote: »
    This is a real concern now alright. A lot of precedents have been set over the past year, some going completely unnoticed until its too late.
    I'm trying to understand where the fury of the water protests has gone. They threaten a fee for maintaining a water system (whatever about the way they went about it) and all hell breaks loose.
    Now they have removed people's freedom and apart from the odd protest, very little uproar. It's like the previous 12 months have broken the countries morale.

    The idea that life will get back to normal is slipping away. The old routines are being forgotten.

    End the PUP and you will see that again in a week.


  • #5379
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    timmyntc wrote: »
    Clearly not if you think leaving level 5 will lead to exponential growth.

    ok, you're half getting it now.

    Level 5 will prevent exponential growth.


  • #5380
    Seweryn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,506 ✭✭✭Seweryn


    DellyBelly wrote: »
    I do go for a walk everyday but within my 5km limit...although looks like I will be able to travel further in a few weeks time...as I said I'm delighted with that news today
    If your way of thinking represents the mindsets of the majority of our society, there is very little hope we will ever get out of this mess.


  • #5381
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,634 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Graham wrote: »
    ok, you're half getting it now.

    Level 5 will prevent exponential growth.

    So might level 4 - or 3.
    Last year we didnt have exponential growth in level 3 until we came into the autumn and more people gathered indoors (due to cooling climate).

    Theres no justification that a level 5 lockdown is needed to stop us from going unsustainable exponential growth and hospitalisations. We had no exponential growth last summer, and with vaccines it should be more achievable.


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  • #5382
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Seweryn wrote: »
    If your way of thinking represents the mindsets of the majority of our society, there is very little hope we will ever get out of this mess.

    I think that's a little confused to be honest.

    It's because that's the mindset of the majority that the case numbers are coming down.


  • #5383
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Graham wrote: »
    ok, you're half getting it now.

    Level 5 will prevent exponential growth.

    Where value of the exponent matters.

    Level 5 may be 0.8 for example - continues to fall
    Level 4 may be 1.0 - flat - sustained rate but no major issue
    Level 3 might be 1.2 - slow growth when numbers are relatively small - need to monitor growth but can be manageable for a time
    Level 2 -1.5 at very low numbers can sustain for a period of time
    Level 1 - 2.0 - not sustainable without vulnerable vaccinated
    Open - 3.0 - Return to full normality on 70% vaccination


  • #5384
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    timmyntc wrote: »
    We had no exponential growth before

    :confused:
    Definition of 'exponential'
    exponential
    ADJECTIVE [usually ADJECTIVE noun]

    Exponential means growing or increasing very rapidly.


  • #5385
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    lee_baby_simms wrote: »
    Absolute rubbish.

    What about RTE? They wouldn’t stoop to such low standards that you just imagined Gript drop to?

    They wouldn’t intentionally mislead the public would they? They surely have far more journalistic integrity than the evil right wing cult rag gript.

    RTE have covertly worked with a biased, agenda driven bunch of scaremongers to rehearse “debates” on live tv.

    They have consistently narrowed the spectrum of acceptable topics for debate in order to delegitimise any kind of alternative options.

    They have continuously gaslit the public, exaggerating risk and placing all the blame on citizens rather than those who make decisions and spend our tax money.

    And mark my words - they will terrorise the public all over again when this is over. They will cover all the damage that these endless lockdowns have caused and milk as much misery out of it as possible...”oooh look what we did...how did we let this happen...”

    For the record I don’t read gript, I’ve always voted left but I’m grateful that they released those leaked emails.

    At least SOMEONE is being actually held up to some kind of scrutiny in this ****hole country.

    Wow. That's some of the most blatantly obvious whataboutery I've ever witnessed.
    I've absolutely no interest in engaging in yet another discussion about the state broadcaster, thanks.

    Have you actually read the "leaks" from Gript. It's the biggest pile of bollocks I've ever seen. The latest is that apparently ISAG think Ivor Cummins is a charlatan.

    What a scoop!


  • #5386
    OwenM
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 860 ✭✭✭OwenM


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Where value of the exponent matters.

    Level 5 may be 0.8 for example - continues to fall
    Level 4 may be 1.0 - flat - sustained rate but no major issue
    Level 3 might be 1.2 - slow growth when numbers are relatively small - need to monitor growth but can be manageable for a time
    Level 2 -1.5 at very low numbers can sustain for a period of time
    Level 1 - 2.0 - not sustainable without vulnerable vaccinated
    Open - 3.0 - Return to full normality on 70% vaccination

    The case numbers have less and less meaning as a proxy for admissions and deaths because of how many are vaccinated and the cohorts they are from. Going to level 3 on April 4th is entirely justified.


  • #5387
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,634 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Graham wrote: »
    :confused:

    I made a typo - post should said we have no exponential growth last summer. Updated now.

    Also I love how you selectively quoted a tiny portion of my last post, ignored all the other arguments (because they're right perhaps?).

    Also your quote is wrong. Exponential growth is growth where the rate of growth is proportional to the size of the population. We did not see exponential growth of new cases until last October. The reasons for which I have addresses in my previous post.


  • #5388
    W123-80's
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,096 ✭✭✭W123-80's


    timmyntc wrote: »
    Spare us your faux outrage.
    You dont care about people's mental health, you're just trying to score points on here by berating others' use of the world "mental".

    You genuinely have to be mental to think that more lockdown to avoid more lockdown works or makes any sense.
    The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Sounds pretty apt here, dont you agree?

    We will agree to disagree on both lockdown measures and the use of ignorant references to mental health as an insult.

    Fair play for claiming I don't care about peoples mental health. I have no idea how you came to that conclusion.

    I don't think what we are doing is insanity. I think it is perfectly reasonable to be honest.
    I also believe we will emerge from this situation at pretty much the same pace and time as the rest of the world. Ahead of some countries, behind others. At the moment however we are in a waiting game with the rest of the human race.

    Disagree if you like but keep it civil at least.


  • #5389
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,634 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Where value of the exponent matters.

    Level 5 may be 0.8 for example - continues to fall
    Level 4 may be 1.0 - flat - sustained rate but no major issue
    Level 3 might be 1.2 - slow growth when numbers are relatively small - need to monitor growth but can be manageable for a time
    Level 2 -1.5 at very low numbers can sustain for a period of time
    Level 1 - 2.0 - not sustainable without vulnerable vaccinated
    Open - 3.0 - Return to full normality on 70% vaccination

    You're just pulling R0 numbers out of your backside. Last summer in level 2/level 3 we saw nowhere near 1.5-1.2 growth in cases.


  • #5390
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,655 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Where value of the exponent matters.

    Level 5 may be 0.8 for example - continues to fall
    Level 4 may be 1.0 - flat - sustained rate but no major issue
    Level 3 might be 1.2 - slow growth when numbers are relatively small - need to monitor growth but can be manageable for a time
    Level 2 -1.5 at very low numbers can sustain for a period of time
    Level 1 - 2.0 - not sustainable without vulnerable vaccinated
    Open - 3.0 - Return to full normality on 70% vaccination

    If the only show in town is Covid

    Jobs and general well-being are important too

    But the penny will drop for yourself and a few others yet I imagine


  • #5391
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,985 ✭✭✭Russman


    JRant wrote: »
    Genuine question, do you think it's appropriate to still be at level 5+ with the current 7 day incidence rate and numbers in hospital?

    It is a good question. I suspect (with no proof obviously) that most people's answer will be based on their own feelings about the situation and how it affects them. If I'm 100% honest, I'd say I don't know enough about epidemiology and modelling to give a good enough answer.

    I dunno, I'm genuinely not trying to be smart assed in saying this, but if I go to a mechanic if my car is broken, a dentist if my teeth have a problem, a plumber for piping etc etc., tbh I sort of trust the NPHET and public health gang to be competent in their field of expertise. I just can't get to the point of thinking that there's some agenda at play or some ulterior motive behind restrictions. Why would anyone want any of this ?

    Are they very cautious ? Probably. Should they be ? I don't know, but I'd guess the January experience plus vaccines on the way heavily influences their thinking. I think its was De Gascun who quoted Luke O'Neill recently by saying nobody wants to get shot on the last day of the war.


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  • #5392
    showpony1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,503 ✭✭✭showpony1


    RGS wrote: »
    No loss of income, no working from home for 12 months.

    And Leo joking on Newstalk this morning his hair is a mess.

    The public are looking for leaders to led us out of this mess and there is no plan other than get vaccines and if the vaccine supply is compromised blame the supplies and just keep the pubic in lockdown.


    Its not good enough 12 months on.


    they believe most people only want a hair cut and few pints.


  • #5393
    OwenM
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 860 ✭✭✭OwenM


    Russman wrote: »
    It is a good question. I suspect (with no proof obviously) that most people's answer will be based on their own feelings about the situation and how it affects them. If I'm 100% honest, I'd say I don't know enough about epidemiology and modelling to give a good enough answer.

    I dunno, I'm genuinely not trying to be smart assed in saying this, but if I go to a mechanic if my car is broken, a dentist if my teeth have a problem, a plumber for piping etc etc., tbh I sort of trust the NPHET and public health gang to be competent in their field of expertise. I just can't get to the point of thinking that there's some agenda at play or some ulterior motive behind restrictions. Why would anyone want any of this ?

    Are they very cautious ? Probably. Should they be ? I don't know, but I'd guess the January experience plus vaccines on the way heavily influences their thinking. I think its was De Gascun who quoted Luke O'Neill recently by saying nobody wants to get shot on the last day of the war.

    It's called asymmetrical risk, they have no accountability for the social or economic impact of their advice. Nobody dies of covid and they smell of roses even if the IMF are in mandatory quarantine in a hotel.


  • #5394
    Corby Trouser Press
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 219 ✭✭Corby Trouser Press


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    We very much do have a fairly prominent far-right cohort in Ireland. Perhaps alt-right is the more fitting term these days.

    They're a bunch of sad misfits of course - McGuirk, O'Dohery, Waters, O'Mahoney - and nobody here seems to admit any association or sympathy with their views.

    And yet we see their nonsense shared and promoted here regularly - be it in the form of a spurious article from Gript or a gofundme page for a frivolous law suit against the gov.

    They don't really give a ****e about any of this either. They're hoping they can entice you with some rhetoric about lockdowns and mental health, and that you'll stick around afterwards to listen to their views on immigration or whatever.

    I wonder how well it works?

    I have no problem listening to Gript's views on Immigration or anything else for that matter.

    The fact that you think there is some alternative motive at play because a news website with a contrary and alternative slant decides to challenge the consensus view says more about you then anything else.


  • #5395
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    timmyntc wrote: »
    You're just pulling R0 numbers out of your backside. Last summer in level 2/level 3 we saw nowhere near 1.5-1.2 growth in cases.

    Why do people like you never check a chart or a graph before making these angry comments?

    We saw sustained growth from a very low starting point in July.
    From 6 cases on July 1st to 217 cases on Sept 1st.


  • #5396
    lee_baby_simms
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,503 ✭✭✭lee_baby_simms


    Russman wrote: »
    I dunno, I'm genuinely not trying to be smart assed in saying this, but if I go to a mechanic if my car is broken, a dentist if my teeth have a problem, a plumber for piping etc etc., tbh I sort of trust the NPHET and public health gang to be competent in their field of expertise. I just can't get to the point of thinking that there's some agenda at play or some ulterior motive behind restrictions. Why would anyone want any of this ?

    Fair enough but if you went to a dentist you would assume he or she would have the appropriate qualification.

    Tony Holohan has absolutely no qualifications with respect to immunology, epidemiology or infectious diseases.

    I think our myopic, hamfisted approach to this pandemic is probably a direct reflection of that.

    After all, if you needed a filling a car mechanic could fix the problem. Extract all your teeth. Job done.


  • #5397
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    timmyntc wrote: »
    Exponential growth is growth where the rate of growth is proportional to the size of the population.

    I will immediately alert Collins dictionary to their mistake.


  • #5398
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,052 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    For those pro restrictions, take hospitality out of it.

    If we reopened hairdressers, click and collect, construction, outdoor sport on 5th April, what do you think that would do to case numbers?

    To me, it does fcuk all to it, i think we'll either continue to decrease or level off at those case numbers (which should be around the 200s at current rate).

    So, why is that not acceptable, or do you think reopening those will lead to mass spread?


  • #5399
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    titan18 wrote: »
    For those pro restrictions, take hospitality out of it.

    If we reopened hairdressers, click and collect, construction, outdoor sport on 5th April, what do you think that would do to case numbers?

    To me, it does fcuk all to it, i think we'll either continue to decrease or level off at those case numbers (which should be around the 200s at current rate).

    So, why is that not acceptable, or do you think reopening those will lead to mass spread?

    I'd be happy to see the 5km restrictions removed, construction reopening, click and collect reopening, outdoor activities in small groups.

    See the effect that has on case numbers then look at non-essential retail etc.

    Added:

    depending where we are on case numbers by the start of April, maybe even look at non-essential retail then.


  • #5400
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,655 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Russman wrote: »
    It is a good question. I suspect (with no proof obviously) that most people's answer will be based on their own feelings about the situation and how it affects them. If I'm 100% honest, I'd say I don't know enough about epidemiology and modelling to give a good enough answer.

    I dunno, I'm genuinely not trying to be smart assed in saying this, but if I go to a mechanic if my car is broken, a dentist if my teeth have a problem, a plumber for piping etc etc., tbh I sort of trust the NPHET and public health gang to be competent in their field of expertise. I just can't get to the point of thinking that there's some agenda at play or some ulterior motive behind restrictions. Why would anyone want any of this ?

    Are they very cautious ? Probably. Should they be ? I don't know, but I'd guess the January experience plus vaccines on the way heavily influences their thinking. I think its was De Gascun who quoted Luke O'Neill recently by saying nobody wants to get shot on the last day of the war.

    That phrase used to describe the governments approach right now is totally inaccurate and a cop out used by many to hide behind a cloak of personal apathy.

    They are not being cautious, they are being completely cowardly and devoid of any obvious leadership skills, in part because the “cautious approach” will have no effect on their lives from a working or retirement point of view in the long term

    A cautious approach would encompass the wellbeing of all citizens of all ages, taking a plethora of different factors into account, to ensure the greater good is always considered.


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  • #5401
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,634 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Russman wrote: »
    It is a good question. I suspect (with no proof obviously) that most people's answer will be based on their own feelings about the situation and how it affects them. If I'm 100% honest, I'd say I don't know enough about epidemiology and modelling to give a good enough answer.

    I dunno, I'm genuinely not trying to be smart assed in saying this, but if I go to a mechanic if my car is broken, a dentist if my teeth have a problem, a plumber for piping etc etc., tbh I sort of trust the NPHET and public health gang to be competent in their field of expertise. I just can't get to the point of thinking that there's some agenda at play or some ulterior motive behind restrictions. Why would anyone want any of this ?

    Are they very cautious ? Probably. Should they be ? I don't know, but I'd guess the January experience plus vaccines on the way heavily influences their thinking. I think its was De Gascun who quoted Luke O'Neill recently by saying nobody wants to get shot on the last day of the war.

    NPHETs remit is public health. They dont care about mental health. They dont care about personal freedoms. They sure as sh*t dont care about the economy.
    Their advice is supposed to be considered by govt, who then make compromises based on all the other stuff. THis is no longer happening here in Ireland. NPHET now call all the shots.

    NPHET are like the mechanic who doesnt want you to die driving, so he takes our your engine so you cant drive. Cant drive cant get in a car crash.


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