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2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭Galwayhurl


    In a major urban centre, I believe it should be possible for a single median earner to purchase a one bedroom or studio flat within reasonable commuting distance of employment.

    Rurally, that's probably a lot more variable, but honestly I think bang for buck kinda manages itself out there because the distance from services etc are the flipside of living in something standalone, with more space.

    I recognise that single earners and units of that size are not an economically appealing market for most commercial developers, but on a social level there's clearly an urgent need for them. Social good is the government's lookout, it should be an obvious ambition to engineer circumstances where those units get built, rather than just... I don't know what the Gov idea is, hoping everyone on the homelessness list marries each other?

    To add to this, I think that there should be no 10% social housing quotas in the city centre developments. People who work in the cities should be able to live in them. Put the social housing in the outer suburbs/commuter towns.

    It's madness that we have people living in social housing in the city centre and not working, while workers have to commute an hour or 2 each way from way out because that's all they can afford.

    Yes I'm aware that many social housing tenants do work, but many don't.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 254 ✭✭HansKroenke


    Hubertj wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/property/commercial/arid-40240229.html

    Good news for commercial property but also the jobs front in the cork region. Further demonstrates apples commitment to Irish operations. Also strange they would continue to invest and expand Irish operations when a tax apocalypse is due to hit Ireland. Could it be they have already factored tax changes into their plans? Would large MNCs with dedicated tax teams have the forethought to factor this into their future plans? Amazing thought. I fear they haven’t checked board.ie and are making a terrible terrible mistake.

    They haven't said what the purpose of the new office space is for, e.g. Indian staff to handle customer service for the Indian market. Is it for new employees to import into Ireland or is the plan to hoover up employees already base in the region? It would be nice to see an accompanying headline that an apartment development is also being funded as part of the job creation. While the announcement is good news for the commercial sector it is bad news for the residential sector.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 254 ✭✭HansKroenke


    awec wrote: »
    The British Virgin Islands are the biggest enabler of tax abuse. British territories are the 3 worst, and they have a 4th (Jersey) in the top 10. It's in the link I posted earlier.

    This is one of Ireland's problems. Unlike the Brits, the french, the US etc, we don't have offshore territories / city-states to obfuscate our tax story.

    The French and Germans use Luxembourg, Switzerland and Monaco for their dirty business, the UK use, as you have noted, their own hollow countries such as the BVI, Isle of Man for those untouchable family trusts etc. Cyprus for the non-EU Turks and Russians to gain EU access. Ireland cannot be touched without the larger nations also closing down their own little havens like those mentioned above, which of course they won't do.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,633 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The French and Germans use Luxembourg, Switzerland and Monaco for their dirty business, the UK use, as you have noted, their own hollow countries such as the BVI, Isle of Man for those untouchable family trusts etc. Cyprus for the non-EU Turks and Russians to gain EU access. Ireland cannot be touched without the larger nations also closing down their own little havens like those mentioned above, which of course they won't do.

    Ireland should close the loopholes, but first declare the Aran Islands as an overseas territory.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    They haven't said what the purpose of the new office space is for, e.g. Indian staff to handle customer service for the Indian market. Is it for new employees to import into Ireland or is the plan to hoover up employees already base in the region? It would be nice to see an accompanying headline that an apartment development is also being funded as part of the job creation. While the announcement is good news for the commercial sector it is bad news for the residential sector.

    Hold on! :)

    The article states:

    "Apple is this month closing out a deal for enough space for 350 to 400 additional employees initially, at Horgan’s Quay, in the top three floors of building No 1. "

    But the article also states:

    "tech giant Apple, which already employs c 6,000 in the city at two other locations."

    So, with post-covid fast approaching (define fast, some say well into next year), won't office spaces need to be reconfigured for more space between workers?

    So, when the article says "enough space for 350 to 400", couldn't it just as easily mean a reduction in the overall number of employees when the additional space for social distancing is implemented post-covid?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,170 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    awec wrote: »
    The British Virgin Islands are the biggest enabler of tax abuse. British territories are the 3 worst, and they have a 4th (Jersey) in the top 10. It's in the link I posted earlier.

    This is one of Ireland's problems. Unlike the Brits, the french, the US etc, we don't have offshore territories / city-states to obfuscate our tax story.

    I guess it depends on the exact criterian and exactly who is compiling the report:

    Ireland-tax-haven.jpg

    https://www.consultancy.eu/news/1641/europe-home-to-6-of-the-globes-top-10-tax-havens-ireland-tops-list


  • Administrators Posts: 55,122 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Hold on! :)

    The article states:

    "Apple is this month closing out a deal for enough space for 350 to 400 additional employees initially, at Horgan’s Quay, in the top three floors of building No 1. "

    But the article also states:

    "tech giant Apple, which already employs c 6,000 in the city at two other locations."

    So, with post-covid fast approaching (define fast, some say well into next year), won't office spaces need to be reconfigured for more space between workers?

    So, when the article says "enough space for 350 to 400", couldn't it just as easily mean a reduction in the overall number of employees when the additional space for social distancing is implemented post-covid?

    Why would it?

    Social distancing will not be a thing anymore once people are vaccinated.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    awec wrote: »
    Why would it?

    Social distancing will not be a thing anymore once people are vaccinated.


    Whether the vaccine for covid works or not, social distancing in office environments will be a thing going forward. They've already alluded to it with the massive reduction in flu etc.


  • Administrators Posts: 55,122 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Whether the vaccine for covid works or not, social distancing in office environments will be a thing going forward. They've already alluded to it with the massive reduction in flu etc.

    Nonsense. You think people will be sitting 2metres apart in offices from now on?

    Can you post a link to a source that suggests offices are to remain socially distant even when the rest of society has returned to something pretty close to normal?


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    fliball123 wrote: »
    and Germany , U.K, France and the U.S are all in the top 25 . Whats your point?

    My point is we're a tax haven, and I have no complaints about that. It has been a fantastically successful strategy by successive governments.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    awec wrote: »
    Nonsense. You think people will be sitting 2metres apart in offices from now on?

    Can you post a link to a source that suggests offices are to remain socially distant even when the rest of society has returned to something pretty close to normal?


    Dr. Tony Holohan said back in June:

    "It's not maybe a uniquely Irish thing but the 'ah sure I'll be grand' and going to work with coughs and colds, that was a kind of socially acceptable thing to do.

    We need to move to a situation where going to school, going out for the evening, going to work, with coughs and colds and sniffles and so on becomes a thing of the past, because of this disease and that will benefit a range of other respiratory diseases as well."

    Basically if this is recommended post-covid, companies will want to minimise the chances of one of their employees giving everyone else in the office a cold or cough IMO

    Link to article here: https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/dr-tony-holohan-says-one-22235866


  • Administrators Posts: 55,122 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Dr. Tony Holohan said back in June:

    "It's not maybe a uniquely Irish thing but the 'ah sure I'll be grand' and going to work with coughs and colds, that was a kind of socially acceptable thing to do.

    We need to move to a situation where going to school, going out for the evening, going to work, with coughs and colds and sniffles and so on becomes a thing of the past, because of this disease and that will benefit a range of other respiratory diseases as well."

    Basically if this is recommended post-covid, companies will want to minimise the chances of one of their employees giving everyone else in the office a cold or cough IMO

    Link to article here: https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/dr-tony-holohan-says-one-22235866

    Yes, people will no longer go to work when they are sick.

    This article does not mention anything to do with continued social distancing post vaccination.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    awec wrote: »
    Yes, people will no longer go to work when they are sick.

    This article does not mention anything to do with continued social distancing post vaccination.

    Actually, you're probably right :)


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    please take the COVID discussion to the appropriate forum.

    Do not reply to this post.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,335 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    schmittel wrote: »
    My point is we're a tax haven, and I have no complaints about that. It has been a fantastically successful strategy by successive governments.

    We are not a tax haven.

    What Makes a Country a Tax Haven?


    https://igees.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/What-makes-a-country-a-tax-haven.pdf

    Abstract: This paper explores the issue of tax havens and tax competition. The recent intensified debate on tax havens is summarised, as is the important work of the OECD, the EU and the G-20 in this area and the ongoing research on the economic effects of tax havens.

    Ireland does not meet any of the OECD criteria for being a tax haven but because of its 12.5 per cent corporation tax rate and the open nature of the Irish economy, Ireland has on a few occasions been labelled a tax haven.

    There are three primary reasons for this identified, each addressed in the paper: a failure to distinguish between legitimate and abusive transfer pricing; a misunderstanding of the role and regulation of IFSC; and a dated but influential academic paper from 1994 that incorrectly
    included Ireland in a list of tax havens, based on a reason that has long since lost any validity.


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Geuze wrote: »
    We are not a tax haven.

    What Makes a Country a Tax Haven?


    https://igees.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/What-makes-a-country-a-tax-haven.pdf

    Abstract: This paper explores the issue of tax havens and tax competition. The recent intensified debate on tax havens is summarised, as is the important work of the OECD, the EU and the G-20 in this area and the ongoing research on the economic effects of tax havens.

    Ireland does not meet any of the OECD criteria for being a tax haven but because of its 12.5 per cent corporation tax rate and the open nature of the Irish economy, Ireland has on a few occasions been labelled a tax haven.

    There are three primary reasons for this identified, each addressed in the paper: a failure to distinguish between legitimate and abusive transfer pricing; a misunderstanding of the role and regulation of IFSC; and a dated but influential academic paper from 1994 that incorrectly
    included Ireland in a list of tax havens, based on a reason that has long since lost any validity.

    So you’re saying we are not a tax haven according to our own Dept of Finance and Revenue?!

    Plenty of others think we are a tax haven:

    Ireland has been labelled a tax haven, or a corporate tax haven (or Conduit OFC), by:

    The main § Leaders in tax haven research:[38][39] James R. Hines Jr. (1994, 2007, 2010),[31][40][41] Dhammika Dharmapala (2008 and 2009),[42][43] and Gabriel Zucman (2013, 2014 and 2018);[4][32][34][44][45]
    Other important § Leaders in tax haven research:[38][39] Joel Slemrod (2006),[46] and Mihir A. Desai (2006);[47]
    Notable academic studies by the University of Amsterdam's CORPNET in 2017 (Conduit and Sink OFCs)[27][28] and by the International Monetary Fund journal in 2018;[48]
    Various academic tax-policy centres in Germany,[49] the United Kingdom,[50] the United Nations,[51] and Ireland itself;[52]
    The three main non-governmental tax organisations: Tax Justice Network,[33][53][54] the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy,[55][56] and Oxfam;[57][58]
    The two U.S. Congressional investigations into global tax havens: 2008 by the Government Accountability Office,[59] and 2015 by the Congressional Research Service.[60]
    The 2013 Levin–McCain U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigation ("PSI") into tax avoidance activities of U.S. multinationals by using "profit shifting" BEPS tools;[61][62][63]
    The books on tax havens in the last decade, with at least 300 citations on Google Scholar: Tax Havens: How Globalization Really Works, by Ronen Palan and Richard Murphy from 2010,[36] Treasure Islands: Tax Havens and the Men Who Stole the World, by Nicholas Shaxson from 2011, and The Hidden Wealth of Nations: The Scourge of Tax Havens, by Gabriel Zucman from 2015;
    The main financial media: New York Times,[64] Bloomberg News,[65] the Wall Street Journal,[66] Forbes,[67] the Financial Times,[68] The Economist,[69] the Washington Post,[70] and Fortune;[71]
    Some leading economists;[72][73][74][75][76]
    G20 economy, Brazil, who blacklisted Ireland in September 2016;[12][77] and potentially the U.S. State of Oregon whose State IRS recommended blacklisting Ireland in 2017.[78]
    The European Parliament in March 2019 voted to accept a report by 505 votes in favour to 63 against, recommending Ireland, as one several "EU tax havens", be included on the official EU Commission list of tax havens.[o][80][81][82]
    Ireland has also been labelled related terms to being a tax haven:

    In Germany, the related term tax dumping has been used against Ireland by German political leaders;[83][84]
    The Financial Stability Forum ("FSF") and the International Monetary Fund ("IMF") listed Ireland as an offshore financial centre in June 2000;[33][34][35][36]
    Bloomberg, in an article on PwC Ireland's managing partner Feargal O'Rourke, used the term tax avoidance hub;[85]
    The 2013 U.S Senate PSI Levin–McCain investigation into U.S. multinational tax activity, called Ireland the holy grail of tax avoidance;[86][87]
    As the OECD has never listed any of its 35 members as tax havens, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Switzerland are called OECD tax havens;[88]
    As the EU Commission has never formally listed any of its 28 members as tax havens, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Belgium are called EU tax havens.[89][90]
    The term tax haven has been used by the Irish mainstream media and leading Irish commentators.[91][92][93][94][70][95] Irish elected TDs have asked the question: "Is Ireland a tax haven?".[96][97] A search of Dáil Éireann debates lists 871 references to the term.[98] Some established Irish political parties accuse the Irish State of tax haven activities.[99][100][101]

    The international community at this point is concerned about the nature of tax havens, and Ireland in particular is viewed with a considerable amount of suspicion in the international community for doing what is considered - at the very least - on the boundaries of acceptable practices.

    — Ashoka Mody, Ex-IMF mission chief to Ireland, "Former IMF official warns Ireland to prepare for end to tax regime", 21 June 2018.[102]

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ireland_as_a_tax_haven

    If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    Geuze wrote: »
    We are not a tax haven.

    What Makes a Country a Tax Haven?


    https://igees.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/What-makes-a-country-a-tax-haven.pdf

    Abstract: This paper explores the issue of tax havens and tax competition. The recent intensified debate on tax havens is summarised, as is the important work of the OECD, the EU and the G-20 in this area and the ongoing research on the economic effects of tax havens.

    Ireland does not meet any of the OECD criteria for being a tax haven but because of its 12.5 per cent corporation tax rate and the open nature of the Irish economy, Ireland has on a few occasions been labelled a tax haven.

    There are three primary reasons for this identified, each addressed in the paper: a failure to distinguish between legitimate and abusive transfer pricing; a misunderstanding of the role and regulation of IFSC; and a dated but influential academic paper from 1994 that incorrectly
    included Ireland in a list of tax havens, based on a reason that has long since lost any validity.


    Why would the DOF and Revenue come out calling Ireland a tax haven?


    The EU voted calling us a tax haven in January, also the UN's Special Rapporteur said 'Nobody believes Ireland is not a tax haven'

    We're at peak green jersey talk even arguing this is not true and thats not negating the transformative effects these policies have had on Ireland.


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Hubertj wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/property/commercial/arid-40240229.html

    Good news for commercial property but also the jobs front in the cork region. Further demonstrates apples commitment to Irish operations. Also strange they would continue to invest and expand Irish operations when a tax apocalypse is due to hit Ireland. Could it be they have already factored tax changes into their plans? Would large MNCs with dedicated tax teams have the forethought to factor this into their future plans? Amazing thought. I fear they haven’t checked board.ie and are making a terrible terrible mistake.

    As i understand it if profits rise intemationally from IP that apple holds in Ireland they must increase their workforce in Ireland in proportion. Its part of the deal.

    I think there is a decent chance that the dedicated tax teams are simply complying with the current tax laws than planning for the future.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    schmittel wrote: »
    As i understand it if profits rise intemationally from IP that apple holds in Ireland they must increase their workforce in Ireland in proportion. Its part of the deal.

    I think there is a decent chance that the dedicated tax teams are simply complying with the current tax laws than planning for the future.

    Apple has been manufacturing in Cork for 40 years and employees over 6000 people. They are all not employed just to avoid tax as you are suggesting with your post.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    schmittel wrote: »
    As i understand it if profits rise intemationally from IP that apple holds in Ireland they must increase their workforce in Ireland in proportion. Its part of the deal.

    I think there is a decent chance that the dedicated tax teams are simply complying with the current tax laws than planning for the future.

    I suppose you could think that way if you’re a conspiracy theorist. It could be that Apple is preparing to expand operations in Ireland. That is positive for commercial property in cork, which is relevant to the 2021 property market.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,621 ✭✭✭hold my beer


    schmittel wrote: »
    As i understand it if profits rise intemationally from IP that apple holds in Ireland they must increase their workforce in Ireland in proportion. Its part of the deal.

    I think there is a decent chance that the dedicated tax teams are simply complying with the current tax laws than planning for the future.

    Part of what deal.


  • Posts: 55 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    As I see it, the housing market is driven by a number of variables which tend to apply upward or downward pressure on prices.

    Variables which pull house prices in the same direction.
    Economic Outlook.
    Population Growth.
    Demand (Speculative in times of low interest, non-speculative in times of low supply).
    Mortgage Approvals.

    Variables which push house prices in the opposite direction.
    Supply.
    Interest Rates.

    So if someone is looking for house prices to fall, they would have to be looking out for at least one of the below headlines in the papers..

    Economic outlook deteriorating
    Population growth being reversed
    Demand falling
    Mortgage approvals falling
    Supply increasing and outpacing demand
    Interest rates rising

    I think most people will agree that none of the above look remotely like happening in the short to medium term except maybe for the last one and I'm beginning to think that maybe it would be a good thing at this stage as I think that low interest rates contributes (perversely) to rising house prices.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    New data (released today), shows that more than 80,000 households are in state-supported private rented accommodation and that the Hap scheme payments to landlords will rise from €436 million last year to in excess of €1 billion by the end of 2021 (this year).

    So, it's HAP alone is going to rise from €436m last year to over €1billion this year, and that's from the department of housing very own figures.

    So, is the state expecting the number of households receiving HAP to double from 80,000 households to 160,000 households this year or are they expecting rents to double or something in between?

    Link to article in Sunday Business Post here:https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/more-than-80000-households-are-in-state-supported-private-rented-accommodation-af10bd9b


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    As I see it, the housing market is driven by a number of variables which tend to apply upward or downward pressure on prices.

    Variables which pull house prices in the same direction.
    Economic Outlook.
    Population Growth.
    Demand (Speculative in times of low interest, non-speculative in times of low supply).
    Mortgage Approvals.

    Variables which push house prices in the opposite direction.
    Supply.
    Interest Rates.

    So if someone is looking for house prices to fall, they would have to be looking out for at least one of the below headlines in the papers..

    Economic outlook deteriorating
    Population growth being reversed
    Demand falling
    Mortgage approvals falling
    Supply increasing and outpacing demand
    Interest rates rising

    I think most people will agree that none of the above look remotely like happening in the short to medium term except maybe for the last one and I'm beginning to think that maybe it would be a good thing at this stage as I think that low interest rates contributes (perversely) to rising house prices.

    I wouldn't go so far as to say that the economic outlook won't deteriorate.

    There are also lots of other considerations that you need to included such as rent, Institutional investors appetite, Government intervention etc...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries



    So if someone is looking for house prices to fall, they would have to be looking out for at least one of the below headlines in the papers..

    Economic outlook deteriorating
    Population growth being reversed
    Demand falling
    Mortgage approvals falling
    Supply increasing and outpacing demand
    Interest rates rising


    I'm calling it :)

    Every single one of those boxes will be ticked by August 2021.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 220 ✭✭thefridge2006


    Also in other news. According to the Irish Times today:

    "EU poised to affirm tax on tech giants if global agreement fails. Leaders are working towards consensus, but EU ready to take unilateral action if needed.

    European Union leaders are poised to affirm their commitment to a unilateral tax on tech giants if they fail to agree on a global framework with partners, including Joe Biden’s US administration, by the middle of this year."

    There's so many fires we have to fight this year, it will take a significant luck of the Irish to come out the other side with a quick return to an economy that looks anything like 2019 IMO

    There may also be a quick reversal of any approved or soon to be approved housing measures (which appear to be primarily on the demand side of the equation) if the government finances do take an abrupt turn IMO

    Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/eu-poised-to-affirm-tax-on-tech-giants-if-global-agreement-fails-1.4505268

    100% it's ridiculous looking on from the side lines


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 254 ✭✭HansKroenke


    New data (released today), shows that more than 80,000 households are in state-supported private rented accommodation and that the Hap scheme payments to landlords will rise from €436 million last year to in excess of €1 billion by the end of 2021 (this year).

    So, it's HAP alone is going to rise from €436m last year to over €1billion this year, and that's from the department of housing very own figures.

    So, is the state expecting the number of households receiving HAP to double from 80,000 households to 160,000 households this year or are they expecting rents to double or something in between?

    Link to article in Sunday Business Post here:https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/more-than-80000-households-are-in-state-supported-private-rented-accommodation-af10bd9b

    Increased property taxes will help pay for HAP, it will be grand.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Increased property taxes will help pay for HAP, it will be grand.

    I’m surprised that the share price of Ires REIT didn’t quadruple this afternoon on that news :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,330 ✭✭✭enricoh


    New data (released today), shows that more than 80,000 households are in state-supported private rented accommodation and that the Hap scheme payments to landlords will rise from €436 million last year to in excess of €1 billion by the end of 2021 (this year).

    So, it's HAP alone is going to rise from €436m last year to over €1billion this year, and that's from the department of housing very own figures.

    So, is the state expecting the number of households receiving HAP to double from 80,000 households to 160,000 households this year or are they expecting rents to double or something in between?

    Link to article in Sunday Business Post here:https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/more-than-80000-households-are-in-state-supported-private-rented-accommodation-af10bd9b

    There's a lot of people in hospitality etc that are getting a taste of our welfare state for the first time. I reckon employers will struggle to get minimum wage workers to go back to work, especially now with rents rising in the cheaper counties.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,432 ✭✭✭combat14


    Increased property taxes will help pay for HAP, it will be grand.

    HAP needs to be scrapped to bring down rent price bubble


This discussion has been closed.
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