2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

donnaille · 05-03-2021 04:02PM

fliball123 wrote: »

why would you be doing that you can be getting more of a deposit up and things like OT and work not considered your full time job as in nixers are considered once off and/or not a steady reoccurring income stream sure banks wont even take bonuses into account when your looking for a mortgage

Some banks take 50% of bonus into account. Similar scenario if you can show that OT and nixers are a regular source of income.

hometruths · 05-03-2021 04:03PM

fliball123 wrote: »

price has been constrained by the lending limits put in by the ECB , if you took them away prices would absolutely rocket up.

which oddly enough is what the government is trying to do.

fliball123 · 05-03-2021 04:04PM

donnaille wrote: »

Some banks take 50% of bonus into account. Similar scenario if you can show that OT and nixers are a regular source of income.

Well it wasnt my experience maybe they are relaxing the rules a bit

PropQueries · 05-03-2021 04:10PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

With the latest opinion poll showing a further drop for FF I imagine they'll be extra desperate to push the shared equity scheme through

The Business Post/Red C poll taken between 18th-25th February

FG- 29
SF- 29
FF- 13

I wonder should they drop the shared equity scheme though. Given budget constraints it could only “help” a few thousand (max) get on the housing ladder by the time of the next election.

In the meantime, if house prices keep rising, the opposition will use it to convince the tens of thousands of others (if there really is that demand) that can’t get on the housing ladder that it is the government’s shared equity scheme that is driving up prices and stopping them achieving the same dream.

I don’t see how FF believe this is a vote winner IMO

fliball123 · 05-03-2021 04:15PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I wonder should they drop the shared equity scheme though. Given budget constraints it could only “help” a few thousand (max) get on the housing ladder by the time of the next election.

In the meantime, if house prices keep rising, the opposition will use it to convince the tens of thousands of others (if there really is that demand) that can’t get on the housing ladder that it is the government’s shared equity scheme that is driving up prices and stopping them achieving the same dream.

I don’t see how FF believe this is a vote winner IMO

I think they would look more ridiculous backing out now. They have come out strong stating its targeted at a certain price point and to a certain cohort on the lower wage .. and even went as far as to say it would help build more houses (almost sure I heard one chap from FF stating this)

Browney7 · 05-03-2021 04:15PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Economy grew by over 3% last year.
House prices are up.
Who would have thought that last March?

With Irish GDP, miracles can and do happen! Using GDP or even GNI (due to tax inversion deals) as a barometer for the Irish economy is frought with danger. The GNI* is the more appropriate metric.

Having said that, I agree I still wouldn't have thought GDP would have gone up with Covid!

MacronvFrugals · 05-03-2021 04:17PM

Browney7 wrote: »

With Irish GDP, miracles can and do happen! Using GDP or even GNI (due to tax inversion deals) as a barometer for the Irish economy is frought with danger. The GNI* is the more appropriate metric.

Having said that, I agree I still wouldn't have thought GDP would have gone up with Covid!

Or as Paul Krugman would describe them 'Leprechaun miracles'

MacronvFrugals · 05-03-2021 04:20PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I wonder should they drop the shared equity scheme though. Given budget constraints it could only “help” a few thousand (max) get on the housing ladder by the time of the next election.

In the meantime, if house prices keep rising, the opposition will use it to convince the tens of thousands of others (if there really is that demand) that can’t get on the housing ladder that it is the government’s shared equity scheme that is driving up prices and stopping them achieving the same dream.

I don’t see how FF believe this is a vote winner IMO

Thats a fair point Props, but sitting back will see their support continue to slide all the while FG and SF are rubbing their hands.

PropQueries · 05-03-2021 04:20PM

Browney7 wrote: »

With Irish GDP, miracles can and do happen! Using GDP or even GNI (due to tax inversion deals) as a barometer for the Irish economy is frought with danger. The GNI* is the more appropriate metric.

Having said that, I agree I still wouldn't have thought GDP would have gone up with Covid!

It also shows how reliant we are on multinationals and why the outcome of the current OECD global tax reforms will be so important to the future of this country.

Outside of a few articles, there’s very little Irish media coverage of the negotiations IMO

fliball123 · 05-03-2021 04:22PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Or as Paul Krugman would describe them 'Leprechaun miracles'

GDP up, property prices up, we are currently rolling out a vaccine, coming out of lockdown (hopefully fingers crossed) in the next month, people on PUP will drop and people back paying tax will be up. For a year that has encompassed a mass lockdown of businesses and all the other difficulties with Covid and Brexit. Things look to be looking a lot better than people were predicting

donnaille · 05-03-2021 04:34PM

fliball123 wrote: »

GDP up, property prices up, we are currently rolling out a vaccine, coming out of lockdown (hopefully fingers crossed) in the next month, people on PUP will drop and people back paying tax will be up. For a year that has encompassed a mass lockdown of businesses and all the other difficulties with Covid and Brexit. Things look to be looking a lot better than people were predicting

Predictions last year couldn't take into account the government assistance that was rolled out. I struggle to believe that anyone really believes those supports will turn off and we'll return to prosperity? The effect of Covid has merely been pushed down the road. It may not turn out to be as bad as some of the initial predictions, but we're quite far off declaring business as usual.

AlmightyCushion · 05-03-2021 04:42PM

fliball123 wrote: »

I think they would look more ridiculous backing out now. They have come out strong stating its targeted at a certain price point and to a certain cohort on the lower wage .. and even went as far as to say it would help build more houses (almost sure I heard one chap from FF stating this)

I would actually think better of them if they backed out of it. I'd rather someone put their hands up and admit they got something wrong instead of doubling down and pig-headedly ploughing on with it anyways because they think it looks better than backing down.

MacronvFrugals · 05-03-2021 04:44PM

Some monumental adapting could be needed in the long term for us

The multinational sector now accounts for 50% of the value of the economy, up from 43.4% in 2019.

Ireland’s days as a low-tax haven are coming to an end, so it must adapt.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-04/ireland-sees-2-4-billion-hit-from-a-4-letter-word?sref=ZtdQlmKR
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0305/1201148-cso-economy-figures/

Mic 1972 · 05-03-2021 04:50PM

Browney7 wrote: »

Are you basing the last 2-3 on asking prices or from the PPR or some other data? My own expectation that prices for turnkey houses have been strong with prices for apartments being stagnant and slow to shift

I'm looking at apartments specifically, not houses, as I'm looking for an investment property.
I have been bidding since August and noticed how the same type of apartments in same areas have had a significant price increase, around 30-40K Especially from Oct to now.
The impression i'm getting is that investors are hoarding properties at the moment and will pay any price.

Timing belt · 05-03-2021 04:53PM

PropQueries wrote: »

It also shows how reliant we are on multinationals and why the outcome of the current OECD global tax reforms will be so important to the future of this country.

Outside of a few articles, there’s very little Irish media coverage of the negotiations IMO

It's not just Irish media coverage...Its all media coverage..... It was delayed to mid 2021 but has become a political football because of covid and I don't think they will reach agreement and instead the risk is that we will see the EU implement it's own regime which will heighten Trade tensions.... It's all a white wash anyway and by the time we have any final agreement there will be loopholes big enough to drive a bus through which will result in little change besides a bit more paperwork. There is to much money and power at play to allow any meaningful change and instead all we will get is a headline like the UK did this week with increasing CT to 25% despite the loopholes meaning that 80% of companies will continue to pay 19%.... Saying all this it will have little bearing on house prices in 2021.

Timing belt · 05-03-2021 04:56PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I'm looking at apartments specifically, not houses, as I'm looking for an investment property.
I have been bidding since August and noticed how the same type of apartments in same areas have had a significant price increase, around 30-40K Especially from Oct to now.
The impression i'm getting is that investors are hoarding properties at the moment and will pay any price.

Can you blame them..... It is giving a better return than any other asset class at the moment.... Come post Covid people/students will be back and will all be looking to rent all at the same time which will drive rents up and if that fails you can rent to the government risk free...

PropQueries · 05-03-2021 05:05PM

Timing belt wrote: »

It's not just Irish media coverage...Its all media coverage..... It was delayed to mid 2021 but has become a political football because of covid and I don't think they will reach agreement and instead the risk is that we will see the EU implement it's own regime which will heighten Trade tensions.... It's all a white wash anyway and by the time we have any final agreement there will be loopholes big enough to drive a bus through which will result in little change besides a bit more paperwork. There is to much money and power at play to allow any meaningful change and instead all we will get is a headline like the UK did this week with increasing CT to 25% despite the loopholes meaning that 80% of companies will continue to pay 19%.... Saying all this it will have little bearing on house prices in 2021.

My understanding is that the legwork is done and they’re hoping to have it concluded by the middle of this year. The only tweaks now are that the UK, USA etc. will most likely be looking for a bigger share of the pot than previously due to their covid bills.

If you don’t think it will impact the property market this year and the outcome goes against us worse than we think, Paschal will pull in the purse strings and force DCC and other councils to pull back on their property buying.

DCC is now the biggest buyer of property in Dublin (they’re in active negotiations with c. 4,000 property owners in the city) and once they exit, the biggest buyer and “market price” influencer is gone.

Yurt2 · 05-03-2021 05:13PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Some monumental adapting could be needed in the long term for us

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-04/ireland-sees-2-4-billion-hit-from-a-4-letter-word?sref=ZtdQlmKR
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0305/1201148-cso-economy-figures/

It was always going to come to an end. An economy that prospers or flounders overwhelmingly on one variable is not a resilient economy. We're not much better than an oil-dependent economy in that regard.

People like to speak of Ireland in the same breath as places like Norway, Switzerland, Denmark, or Singapore. Citizens in these countries have more confidence in the future and can afford to have more confidence in the future than in Ireland. What sets them apart is that they have been governed consistently well over decades, and their economies are diverse and don't operate pro-cyclical boom / bust policies. When our sails catch the wind of a strong global economy, we start losing our heads hawking each other property like mad, convince ourselves we're absolute geniuses and get all confused and despondent when it crashes around our ears.

05-03-2021 05:19PM

"The multinational sector now accounts for 50% of the value of the economy, up from 43.4% in 2019."

This won't end well for us

Hubertj · 05-03-2021 05:34PM

Timing belt wrote: »

It's not just Irish media coverage...Its all media coverage..... It was delayed to mid 2021 but has become a political football because of covid and I don't think they will reach agreement and instead the risk is that we will see the EU implement it's own regime which will heighten Trade tensions.... It's all a white wash anyway and by the time we have any final agreement there will be loopholes big enough to drive a bus through which will result in little change besides a bit more paperwork. There is to much money and power at play to allow any meaningful change and instead all we will get is a headline like the UK did this week with increasing CT to 25% despite the loopholes meaning that 80% of companies will continue to pay 19%.... Saying all this it will have little bearing on house prices in 2021.

The tax team where I work (US MNC) is very confident of what the agreement will entail and made investment decisions for Ireland and other countries outside US with that in mind.
I can’t believe anyone would think MNCs aren’t already factoring this into future planning. Well actually reading this thread I can believe people would think that.

PropQueries · 05-03-2021 05:41PM

Hubertj wrote: »

The tax team where I work (US MNC) is very confident of what the agreement will entail and made investment decisions for Ireland and other countries outside US with that in mind.
I can’t believe anyone would think MNCs aren’t already factoring this into future planning. Well actually reading this thread I can believe people would think that.

And do they have a back-up plan if they’re wrong?

Probably and I doubt they’re sharing that, with staff morale etc. etc. IMO

Cyrus · 05-03-2021 05:46PM

PropQueries wrote: »

And do they have a back-up plan if they’re wrong?

probably something along the lines of buy up a load of irish residential property at 25c in the euro

PommieBast · 05-03-2021 06:14PM

fliball123 wrote: »

I do actually aagree with your contention that what you outline is how it should work in a normal market but our property market is far from that.

I have a hard time thinking of anything the Irish property market has got right. Lot of EAs seem to hope that people will throw good money after bad when due-diligence reports come though.

PropQueries · 05-03-2021 06:41PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I'm looking at apartments specifically, not houses, as I'm looking for an investment property.
I have been bidding since August and noticed how the same type of apartments in same areas have had a significant price increase, around 30-40K Especially from Oct to now.
The impression i'm getting is that investors are hoarding properties at the moment and will pay any price.

Could it be due to what the Minister for Housing said back in July 2020?

"The Airbnb properties that are now not being used – is there an opportunity for the state to buy more of them? It’s something that I’m looking at, absolutely. It is something that I want to do frankly."

Link to article on his interview with TheJournal in July 2020: https://www.thejournal.ie/darragh-o-brien-housing-minister-5146915-Jul2020/

mcsean2163 · 05-03-2021 07:00PM

2lazytogetup wrote: »

is it just me or has anyone else noticed a total lack of supply of houses for sale on the market.

Do we expect a massive number of res property to hit the market later this year when restrictions have eased.

I'm hoping with the schools reopening more property will come on the market especially in the form of executor sales. Hardly any 4 bed in Dublin, Wicklow or Kildare coming on the market.

Edit:. That reads wrong, I meant a lot of people that have been homeschooling may have been too busy to organise an executor sale. I'm not hoping people will die

decreds · 05-03-2021 07:17PM

Plenty of property hitting the market in D1 and D7, lower asking than usual. Curious to see what they go for.

hometruths · 05-03-2021 07:30PM

Yurt! wrote: »

It was always going to come to an end. An economy that prospers or flounders overwhelmingly on one variable is not a resilient economy. We're not much better than an oil-dependent economy in that regard.

Back in the day, when about 25% of our economy was dependent on construction, some people voiced concerns that it was dangerous to have an economy so reliant on one particular industry.

Not a problem, they were told, people will always need somewhere to live. True, but for a lot of people, who had flocked here to work in our construction sector, all of a sudden that place they needed to live was not Ireland.

Now 50% of our economy is dependent on MNCs. Not a problem we’re told...

History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

hometruths · 05-03-2021 07:31PM

Timing belt wrote: »

It's not just Irish media coverage...Its all media coverage..... It was delayed to mid 2021 but has become a political football because of covid and I don't think they will reach agreement and instead the risk is that we will see the EU implement it's own regime which will heighten Trade tensions.... It's all a white wash anyway and by the time we have any final agreement there will be loopholes big enough to drive a bus through which will result in little change besides a bit more paperwork. There is to much money and power at play to allow any meaningful change and instead all we will get is a headline like the UK did this week with increasing CT to 25% despite the loopholes meaning that 80% of companies will continue to pay 19%.... Saying all this it will have little bearing on house prices in 2021.

Why has it become a political football because of covid?

05-03-2021 07:35PM

decreds wrote: »

Plenty of property hitting the market in D1 and D7, lower asking than usual. Curious to see what they go for.

Since when?
6 hours ago?
I'm watching the market in d7 for years and supply is desperate at the moment and most certainly not cheaper then usual!

fliball123 · 05-03-2021 07:38PM

donnaille wrote: »

Predictions last year couldn't take into account the government assistance that was rolled out. I struggle to believe that anyone really believes those supports will turn off and we'll return to prosperity? The effect of Covid has merely been pushed down the road. It may not turn out to be as bad as some of the initial predictions, but we're quite far off declaring business as usual.

You maybe right sure we will just have to wait and see

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1