Schools closed until March/April? (part 4) Mod warning in OP 22/01

Millem · 05-03-2021 08:35AM

Lillyfae wrote: »

Further context: those are children of essential workers who's parents are working on the front line, out in the community, at a much higher risk than those who are at home not utilising emergency childcare.

Have you seen the list of essential workers? Most of them working from home from what I can see!!

Lillyfae · 05-03-2021 08:37AM

Millem wrote: »

Have you seen the list of essential workers? Most of them working from home from what I can see!!

And what you can see provides a reliable scientific sample?

Millem · 05-03-2021 08:41AM

Lillyfae wrote: »

And what you can see provides a reliable scientific sample?

The list of occupations.

Locotastic · 05-03-2021 08:51AM

Millem wrote: »

Have you seen the list of essential workers? Most of them working from home from what I can see!!

Most essential workers are working from home??

Millem · 05-03-2021 08:51AM

Locotastic wrote: »

Most essential workers are working from home??

Look at the list.

Locotastic · 05-03-2021 09:40AM

Millem wrote: »

Look at the list.

I did, I'm on it and can't work from home. Far as I can tell with the exception of the administration side of any of those occupations they can't work from home.

Most can't work from home.

penny piper · 05-03-2021 09:58AM

Locotastic wrote: »

Children are not being vaccinated and schools cant close forever so dealing with cases as they arise is best we can do, it's not possible to eliminate and keep covid out of schools completely.

So do you think that schools should never have closed after christmas? Professor Tomas O'Ryan said "schools are only safe when the community around them is safe" ..therefore...if cases are still happening in the community schools aren't safe and I don't believe enough studies have been done on the safety of vaccinating children under 16...so surely remote education would be safer until
atleast more of the general public was vaccinated...
.and is the message actually going across to people that once they are vaccinated they can still have the possibility to pass coronavirus onto others who haven't?
It's not only about students we must remember all the staff/teachers as well ......

Lillyfae · 05-03-2021 10:27AM

penny piper wrote: »

So do you think that schools should never have closed after christmas? Professor Tomas O'Ryan said "schools are only safe when the community around them is safe" ..therefore...if cases are still happening in the community schools aren't safe and I don't believe enough studies have been done on the safety of vaccinating children under 16...so surely remote education would be safer until
atleast more of the general public was vaccinated...
.and is the message actually going across to people that once they are vaccinated they can still have the possibility to pass coronavirus onto others who haven't?
It's not only about students we must remember all the staff/teachers as well ......

They should have closed after Christmas, yes. Now that the vaccination program is underway it's time to get back to business, quite frankly. Schools should be the last to close and the first to open, for the good of the children. It's as simple as that.

To protect children and teachers, of course closures should happen as and when they are necessary, which we are already seeing. What are you expecting here?

penny piper · 05-03-2021 10:56AM

Lillyfae wrote: »

They should have closed after Christmas, yes. Now that the vaccination program is underway it's time to get back to business, quite frankly. Schools should be the last to close and the first to open, for the good of the children. It's as simple as that.

To protect children and teachers, of course closures should happen as and when they are necessary, which we are already seeing. What are you expecting here?

Schools are opened first as a political move to show the country's economy is about to open/it's a political move...it's not about the "good of the children"...would be foolish to say anything else...

Regarding the vaccination programme how many of the general public have actually been vaccinated?

I don't know whether you are a teacher or not but two of my children teach in dublin ...both are involved with LC classes ...at the moment they are hardly in school between LCclass/remote....one in particular is teaching ( like so many other teachers) in a classroom with no windows and just a door open..

Lillyfae · 05-03-2021 11:16AM

penny piper wrote: »

Schools are opened first as a political move to show the country's economy is about to open/it's a political move...it's not about the "good of the children"...would be foolish to say anything else...

Regarding the vaccination programme how many of the general public have actually been vaccinated?

I don't know whether you are a teacher or not but two of my children teach in dublin ...both are involved with LC classes ...at the moment they are hardly in school between LCclass/remote....one in particular is teaching ( like so many other teachers) in a classroom with no windows and just a door open..

A political move for people whose "children" (working adults, btw) are in your own words "hardly in school"- what have you got to complain about, really?

I would leave your children to fight their own battles, if there even is a battle to be fought.

TonyMaloney · 05-03-2021 11:37AM

Lillyfae wrote: »

Further context: those are children of essential workers who's parents are working on the front line, out in the community, at a much higher risk than those who are at home not utilising emergency childcare.

A fair point. At least on the face of it.

I assume you're implying that these kids are not usually picking it up in chid-care facilities, but catching it from mom or dad back home and bringing it with them?

This seems reasonable, especially given all we were told about the good old variant.
But I'm afraid it would also imply a huge rate of infection amongst our essential workers. It would have to be considerably higher than 16% for 16% of their kids to be infected.

I don't buy that, especially given that a large proportion of essential workers have been vaccinated.

Lillyfae · 05-03-2021 11:43AM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

A fair point. At least on the face of it.

I assume you're implying that these kids are not usually picking it up in chid-care facilities, but catching it from mom or dad back home and bringing it with them?

This seems reasonable, especially given all we were told about the good old variant.
But I'm afraid it would also imply a huge rate of infection amongst our essential workers. It would have to be considerably higher than 16% for 16% of their kids to be infected.

I don't buy that, especially given that a large proportion of essential workers have been vaccinated.

That's incorrect. Less than 80,000 from 250,000 have received their 2nd dose: https://covid-19.geohive.ie/pages/vaccinations

EDIT: This is the number of frontline workers, not essential

TonyMaloney · 05-03-2021 12:02PM

Lillyfae wrote: »

That's incorrect. Less than 80,000 from 250,000 have received their 2nd dose: https://covid-19.geohive.ie/pages/vaccinations

EDIT: This is the number of frontline workers, not essential

Yeah, and of those 230,000 frontline workers, 154,000 have received a first dose.

All I said was that a large proportion of essential workers have been vaccinated. I'm pretty comfortable with calling 154,000 people a "large proportion".
I don't think that's an exageration.

And you're still left with the crux of my argument. Which is that if you're right and 16% of these kids picked it up off their essential worker parents, then we have an alarming unaddressed problem elsewhere.

Which is it?

Lillyfae · 05-03-2021 12:06PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Yeah, and of those 230,000 frontline workers, 154,000 have received a first dose.

All I said was that a large proportion of essential workers have been vaccinated. I'm pretty comfortable with calling 154,000 people a "large proportion".
I don't think that's an exageration.

And you're still left with the crux of my argument. Which is that if you're right and 16% of these kids picked it up off their essential worker parents, then we have an alarming unaddressed problem elsewhere.

Which is it?

We know that there's a problem amongst frontline workers- we say they're more at risk because we have seen them catching it in far greater numbers than the community for the last year. We're addressing that by prioritising them for vaccination.

By the way, you need to make a distinction between frontline and essential. The postman is essential. The IC nurse is frontline.

penny piper · 05-03-2021 12:10PM

Lillyfae wrote: »

A political move for people whose "children" (working adults, btw) are in your own words "hardly in school"- what have you got to complain about, really?

I would leave your children to fight their own battles, if there even is a battle to be fought.

Excuse me ....I don't know whether you are a parent or not my children "don't need anyone to fight their battles". I'm a parent and not alone am I concerned for my own children (which I think is a natural thing)...I'm also concerned for other teachers/students/their families...I have my opinion....my children are only young teachers...

Regarding my children "hardly been in school" l for LC only it's absolutely ridiculous that they have to remote teach elsewhere ...I was not saying they are not doing their jobs all day....you have a habit of misreading what people post and twisting it to suit your own agenda...

Lillyfae · 05-03-2021 12:16PM

penny piper wrote: »

Excuse me ....I don't know whether you are a parent or not my children "don't need anyone to fight their battles". I'm a parent and not alone am I concerned for my own children (which I think is a natural thing)...I'm also concerned for other teachers/students/their families...I have my opinion....my children are only young teachers...

Regarding my children "hardly been in school" l for LC only it's absolutely ridiculous that they have to remote teach elsewhere ...I was not saying they are not doing their jobs all day....

I didn't say they weren't working, you said they were barely in, so what's the issue there?

Of course it's natural to be concerned for your son/ daughter but they are adult, working professionals. I think it's probably unclear to alot of people reading this thread when you continually refer to your son/ daughter as children- of course they're your children, but they're not children- they have some control over their situation, actual children do not.

penny piper · 05-03-2021 12:24PM

Lillyfae wrote: »

I didn't say they weren't working, you said they were barely in, so what's the issue there?

Of course it's natural to be concerned for your son/ daughter but they are adult, working professionals. I think it's probably unclear to alot of people reading this thread when you continually refer to your son/ daughter as children- of course they're your children, but they're not children- they have some control over their situation, actual children do not.

You did imply they weren't working and what was my problem..maybe you should read what you post.

Lol so what do you want to call my children then? for goodness sake ...my grown up adult children ?

You are just looking for an arguement and I'm sorry I'm not entering into one with you....

Lillyfae · 05-03-2021 12:28PM

penny piper wrote: »

You did imply they weren't working and what was my problem..maybe you should read what you post.

Point out where please?

TonyMaloney · 05-03-2021 12:30PM

Lillyfae wrote: »

We know that there's a problem amongst frontline workers- we say they're more at risk because we have seen them catching it in far greater numbers than the community for the last year. We're addressing that by prioritising them for vaccination.

By the way, you need to make a distinction between frontline and essential. The postman is essential. The IC nurse is frontline.

Ok so what you're saying right now is that essential workers have such a high rate of infection that they can cause a 16% positivity rate amongst kids in a mass test of childcare facilities. And that this is a known problem.

I don't think your argument holds any water. So I'm going to move on.

Locotastic · 05-03-2021 12:34PM

penny piper wrote: »

Excuse me ....I don't know whether you are a parent or not my children "don't need anyone to fight their battles". I'm a parent and not alone am I concerned for my own children (which I think is a natural thing)...I'm also concerned for other teachers/students/their families...I have my opinion....my children are only young teachers...

Regarding my children "hardly been in school" l for LC only it's absolutely ridiculous that they have to remote teach elsewhere ...I was not saying they are not doing their jobs all day....you have a habit of misreading what people post and twisting it to suit your own agenda...

Your 'children' are adults. It's confusing when you see posts about 'your children's school' because people might not realise they are actually grown ups.

Lillyfae · 05-03-2021 12:35PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Ok so what you're saying right now is that essential workers have such a high rate of infection that they can cause a 16% positivity rate amongst kids in a mass test of childcare facilities. And that this is a known problem.

I don't think your argument holds any water. So I'm going to move on.

If there are 100 children of hospital workers in a creche and you test all of them and 16% are positive, that's not a surprise to me. If there are 100 children of all different types of workers, including those working from home, in a creche and you test all of them and 16% are positive then that would be a cause for concern.

penny piper · 05-03-2021 12:44PM

Locotastic wrote: »

Your 'children' are adults. It's confusing when you see posts about 'your children's school' because people might not realise they are actually grown ups.

Whenever I post anything concerning my children ...I always add that they are both young secondary school teachers....so I don't see how it's confusing to anyone...and they are my children ... I have no other way I'm sorry to describe them....
btw
It's pretty patronizing to tell me my children are adults ...I'm fully aware of that.

penny piper · 05-03-2021 12:46PM

Lillyfae wrote: »

Point out where please?

Look yourself... I'm ignoring you

TonyMaloney · 05-03-2021 12:48PM

Lillyfae wrote: »

If there are 100 children of hospital workers in a creche and you test all of them and 16% are positive, that's not a surprise to me. If there are 100 children of all different types of workers, including those working from home, in a creche and you test all of them and 16% are positive then that would be a cause for concern.

Look your argument doesn't even work with the numbers I gave originally.

As I said, in a week in November, with a similar national incidence level to today, with the same number of facilities but more kids tested (536 compared to 307), 9 kids tested positive.

In the last week in February it was 50.

The results of mass testing childcare facilities have been consistently low from November to January, and consistently high since then. It's not just the positivity rate, the actual number of infected kids is much, much higher.

I don't see how this can be explained away by essential workers.

TonyMaloney · 05-03-2021 12:51PM

penny piper wrote: »

Whenever I post anything concerning my children ...I always add that they are both young secondary school teachers....so I don't see how it's confusing to anyone...and they are my children ... I have no other way I'm sorry to describe them....
btw
It's pretty patronizing to tell me my children are adults ...I'm fully aware of that.

I assumed you had really, really bright 8 year old kids who were teaching the leaving cert curriculum.

When ever you mention them, I picture them standing there smiling wearing oversized old-fashioned teaching gowns, and those hats that they used to wear. Sorry.

Lillyfae · 05-03-2021 12:52PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Look your argument doesn't even work with the numbers I gave originally.

As I said, in a week in November, with a similar national incidence level to today, with the same number of facilities but more kids tested (536 compared to 307), 9 kids tested positive.

In the last week in February it was 50.

The results of mass testing childcare facilities have been consistently low from November to January, and consistently high since then. It's not just the positivity rate, the actual number of infected kids is much, much higher.

I don't see how this can be explained away by essential workers.

In a week in November, all children were in- the percentage of children at a higher risk within that number is lower. In the last week in February ONLY the children of workers at a higher risk were in- therefore the percentage of children already at a higher risk is higher, therefore it is more likely that more children test positive.

05-03-2021 12:56PM

Lillyfae wrote: »

If there are 100 children of hospital workers in a creche and you test all of them and 16% are positive, that's not a surprise to me. If there are 100 children of all different types of workers, including those working from home, in a creche and you test all of them and 16% are positive then that would be a cause for concern.

It would be a surprise. There is a very low level of infection in hospital workers now due to the impact of the vaccine.

The reason the positivity rate is so high is right there in the report however - its testing as a result of close contact tracing. The headline says mass testing which is misleading. Nationwide cases have also fallen by 50% since this testing was completed

TonyMaloney · 05-03-2021 12:57PM

Lillyfae wrote: »

In a week in November, all children were in- the percentage of children at a higher risk within that number is lower. In the last week in February ONLY the children of workers at a higher risk were in- therefore the percentage of children already at a higher risk is higher, therefore it is more likely that more children test positive.

Eh, yeah and that's why I said the actual numbers are much, much higher right now. Not just the percentages.
For your argument to work at all, essential workers would have had to have removed their kids from childcare for Nov and Dec. And they didn't.

Look, it was a reasonable point that you made, but we've explored it and found it doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Lets move on.

05-03-2021 01:00PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Look your argument doesn't even work with the numbers I gave originally.

As I said, in a week in November, with a similar national incidence level to today, with the same number of facilities but more kids tested (536 compared to 307), 9 kids tested positive.

In the last week in February it was 50.

The results of mass testing childcare facilities have been consistently low from November to January, and consistently high since then. It's not just the positivity rate, the actual number of infected kids is much, much higher.

I don't see how this can be explained away by essential workers.

Its apples and oranges Tony.

Latest report:

Report from November:

Lillyfae · 05-03-2021 01:02PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Eh, yeah and that's why I said the actual numbers are much, much higher right now. Not just the percentages.
For your argument to work at all, essential workers would have had to have removed their kids from childcare for Nov and Dec. And they didn't.

Look, it was a reasonable point that you made, but we've explored it and found it doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Lets move on.

Numbers were lower all round in November and December.

I'm not arguing. I'm not even trying to be right. I'm just applying logic to the evidence you presented- you said you put context to it, but you omitted completely the most fundamental context. Even more, as raind said the example you gave wasn't as a result of mass testing, it was as a result of contact tracing which is a different kettle of fish altogether

Schools closed until March/April? (part 4) **Mod warning in OP 22/01**

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Schools closed until March/April? (part 4) Mod warning in OP 22/01