2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

decreds wrote: »

Lol.


Facing down the biggest depression and history, supply starting to come on stream, job losses and tax hikes but yeah, no price drops this year.




While i do agree it may take some time to see modest drops, if we are out of lockdown by May, we should see drops by September and complete crash after the next GE.

Where are you seeing supply coming on stream? Have you factored in the demand for people who have not been able to view property for more or less the last 6 odd months....Good luck with your predictions maybe the likes of yourself schmittel, props and a few others should copy your predictions so you can make them again at the start of 2022

Browney7 wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/news/publican-charlie-chawke-lodged-186m-fast-track-plans-to-construct-299-apartments-beside-dublin-bar-40160065.html

looks like Charlie is either bullish on the property market or is now happy with prices that can be achieved after sitting on the land for the past while.

Bit eye watering the prices he's proposing to sell to the council at. If you take the the site value of 12.5 million and take the 299 apartments, being generous, you're looking at 50k max of land "value" for the two bed apartment. Considering a private developer in Castleknock is willing to sell these brand new build 2 beds https://www.daft.ie/new-home-for-sale/clonbern-development-castleknock-road-castleknock-dublin-15/1198520 for between 410-450 depending on floor and aspect, it seems like a sick joke the state is being offered the "opportunity" to buy at the 675-775k range.

I think it’s a great idea. Premium apartments sell very well in this country. He’s clearly done his homework and realises the opportunity. What could possibly go wrong. Good track record in development as well. Picked up the orchard for €22m way back. Worked out well.

Graham wrote: »

Why?

With the amount of build to let going on. I can see it happening that not enough private tenants will be available and as a result long term swertheart deals with councils will be popular

Deleted User wrote: »

Exactly ! Time is different because it is 2021 but rules of the market the same :
No job-No money ! No money- No demand ! No demand-small prices !

Well thanks for setting me straight then, I see your point now. 100% of people will be unemployed so obviously no demand. Should be able to pick up a 4 bedroom for €10 K, any day now.

is it just me or has anyone else noticed a total lack of supply of houses for sale on the market.

Do we expect a massive number of res property to hit the market later this year when restrictions have eased.

im a buyer myself but im afraid and expect property prices to go up about 20% over the next 2 years.

The reason - the economy is going to go off like a rocket. unemployment will go to about 5%. inflation will go up a bit and drive up prices a bit. But all the built up savings.

im dying to buy asap. i have to balance buying now with little choice or wait till end of year when there are more properties but will be paying alot more.

Deleted User wrote: »

I looking for new car for about 1 year on donedeal
When all dealerships and yards been closed on mid of last year the ammount of cars for sale on donedeal jumped from 74 000 to about 79 000
When lockdown been ended before Christmas the amount of cars for sale went down to 75000
The 3 weeks ago the amount of cars was about 75500
Now the amount jumped to 80000 ,mostly private sellers
I would like remind you that dealerships and yards are open and this jump about 4500 cars was only in 3 weeks time.
For mee it looks like people has problems with money and very soon they will have problems pay rent and mortgages.

Some people since my parents bought a house always had problems paying the mortgage or the rent. Back in their day the interest rates were 24% and they were taxed at over 70% on some of their wage. I remember my dad saying that for the first 3 weeks they lived in their new house they lived on beans and toast. Having said that people will always need somewhere to live.

This truth cannot be denied even by the biggest doomsdayers on here.

So say we have the crash that a lot of you all so vividly wanting and expecting. People who currently have houses are protected there is not one government party who will force "family home" repossessions . This has been proven in the aftermath of the 08 crisis. So if someone thinks there will be mass repossessions this time are in for a shock. So people who own their home are safe.

So your left with renters/landlord system. This system has been shifting over the last 5/6 years to REITS and vulture funds and away from the small landlord.
So the vultures/REITS are the predominant force in the market today, so much so they can leave property vacant in order to keep the rents higher. Now if our cohort of renters cant afford them then the lefties who have been shouting loudest with crap like "free homes for everyone" and "housing is a right" will force the current government or the government at the time to pick up the cheque to house these people. This is already currently happening as can be seen by the subsidies which include HAP, Help to buy, FTB grant.

Now I am not happy about this situation. I think people should have to pay their mortgage or sell up and get somewhere cheaper. I think all subsidies to the property market (both rent and buying/selling) should be stopped and rent prices should find its equilibrium price. I also think that the ECB rules are a bit restrictive (when compared to other first world countries) and would like to see the cap here raised to say 5 times your salary but with a 20% deposit to buy for everyone (including FTB) that way prices have to drop 20% before the bank runs into any trouble with a property/mortgage.

The problem as I see it is the lefties are setting the agenda and in the current scenario the amount of housing needed when you move the chess pieces on the board around, are the same. People on here like props will tell you there is over 100k properties vacant (he may be right) but the question has to be asked why are they not in the current rental/buying/selling markets.

Now we have had more births then deaths year on year for the last 100 years and for the 5 years preceding the COVID we were seeing a big spike in people emigrating into the country. Now think, people like props on here saying emigration figures will fall off a cliff once we get back to normal. Even do we had more people coming in to Ireland than leaving it in 2020 when we were supposedly seeing on one coming in. Add in the new regime for refugees coming in and getting a place to live in 4 months as apposed to 7/8 years they currently have to live in places like Mosney holiday park and other designated areas in the country and could not work or do anything until they had been through the system. Do you not think that we will not see a huge increase in refugees coming here with this change alone?

If the crash does happen I think we will need to see an absolute exodus of people leaving the country for property to fall in any meaningful way. The crash would also only have to be in Ireland and in no other country in order for this to happen. I say this as why would you leave one country thats in dire straits for another when you can get a very generous welfare rate (one of the best in the world) and will be afforded some kind of accommodation. If a person living and paying tax in Ireland leaves for say England or America they are on their own.

awec wrote: »

I think the worst case outcome for someone in your situation is price stagnation with a reduced quality of supply. i.e. you may not find any decent houses in the area you want to live in.

Looking at the quality of the housing stock, prices should be 20% lower than what they are. Not how things work in Dublin though..

2lazytogetup wrote: »

is it just me or has anyone else noticed a total lack of supply of houses for sale on the market.

Do we expect a massive number of res property to hit the market later this year when restrictions have eased.

There is a currently buying / selling thread which you might want to read a bit of. It's not just you, there is a significant deamnd and a lack of supply of what people most seem to want.

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah I think the market is a little flawed in some respects .. If you pump say a 100k into a gaff and have it done up to the nines and you and your next door neighbour are putting up at the same time and they have done nothing to the house the premium you get for your add-ons is p1ss poor

im not sure thats the case, pre covid that houses that were selling quickly and for decent money were the renovated ones, and it was the nothing done for 25 years houses that were languishing.