Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

stoneill · 04-03-2021 10:51AM

Now the Loyalists are saying they are pulling support for the GFA over the Irish Sea border issue.

https://www.dw.com/en/northern-ireland-loyalists-pull-support-for-good-friday-peace-deal/a-56766549

What will they do? Bomb indiscriminately? Shoot port workers?

Sam Russell · 04-03-2021 10:59AM

stoneill wrote: »

Now the Loyalists are saying they are pulling support for the GFA over the Irish Sea border issue.

https://www.dw.com/en/northern-ireland-loyalists-pull-support-for-good-friday-peace-deal/a-56766549

What will they do? Bomb indiscriminately? Shoot port workers?

Hopefully they will return to jail as their free pass from long jail terms will be invalid now they have reneged on the GFA.

dogbert27 · 04-03-2021 11:01AM

stoneill wrote: »

Now the Loyalists are saying they are pulling support for the GFA over the Irish Sea border issue.

https://www.dw.com/en/northern-ireland-loyalists-pull-support-for-good-friday-peace-deal/a-56766549

What will they do? Bomb indiscriminately? Shoot port workers?

If they start a campaign they will not be attacking the EU or Republicans but the British government so are they really going to start a civil war?

The EU will not get involved and say it's an internal UK matter to address.

farmchoice · 04-03-2021 11:10AM

dogbert27 wrote: »

If they start a campaign they will not be attacking the EU or Republicans but the British government so are they really going to start a civil war?

The EU will not get involved and say it's an internal UK matter to address.

if they start a campaign they will target Catholics and possibly the republic, no logic to it but its all they know.
the thing is to operate at any level the loyalists need the active assistance of certain arms of the British state, elements of the security and intelligence services. they got this assistance in the past but surely they would not get it anymore. it was one thing for the British state to tacitly support attacks on those who they believed (mostly wrongly) were actively attacking them at the time. surely they would not go as far as facilitating attacks on customs posts in the Heart of NI.
customs post is the wrong term, customs facilities, offices etc.

Hurrache · 04-03-2021 11:14AM

Well they entertained having a meeting with them a few weeks ago.

fly_agaric · 04-03-2021 11:34AM

dogbert27 wrote: »

If they start a campaign they will not be attacking the EU or Republicans but the British government so are they really going to start a civil war?

The EU will not get involved and say it's an internal UK matter to address.

Nope unfortunately for us (in Ireland). They would not attack the British Government...

If they really do go back to the gun over the UKs deal with the EU (unlikely at the moment?), it'll be the "Enemies"/"Traitors" inside NI (i.e. the local nationalists) and in Ireland that they threaten and attack as they've always done in the past.

edit: I suppose the former could be described as starting a low level sort of "civil war" in the UK, but not in the sense you meant.

dogbert27 · 04-03-2021 11:38AM

farmchoice wrote: »

if they start a campaign they will target Catholics and possibly the republic, no logic to it but its all they know.
the thing is to operate at any level the loyalists need the active assistance of certain arms of the British state, elements of the security and intelligence services. they got this assistance in the past but surely they would not get it anymore. it was one thing for the British state to tacitly support attacks on those who they believed (mostly wrongly) were actively attacking them at the time. surely they would not go as far as facilitating attacks on customs posts in the Heart of NI.
customs post is the wrong term, customs facilities, offices etc.

They'll start a campaign against Catholics and the Irish Republic because the UK government is implementing a protocol within the UK that they signed up to?

I know you say that makes no logic but that would actually be suicidal of them as an organisation to attack an EU country for a protocol being implemented by the UK government as a result of the Brexit decision they made.

If they attack the UK government or an EU country in disagreement with the UK governments implementation of the approved protocol the EU will demand swift action from the UK government to end this or if the UK government is attacked they will swiftly crush this down too and also crush the DUP for igniting it.

dogbert27 · 04-03-2021 11:44AM

fly_agaric wrote: »

Nope unfortunately for us (in Ireland).

If they really do go back to the gun over the UKs deal with the EU (unlikely at the moment?), it'll be the "Enemies"/"Traitors" inside NI (i.e. the local nationalists) and in Ireland that they threaten and attack as they've always done in the past.

edit: I suppose the former could be described as starting a low level sort of "civil war" in the UK, but not in the sense you meant.

Ireland would have to use this internationally to be seen as an EU country being attacked by UK insurgents for a protocol approved and being implemented by their own government and have the EU demand action from the UK to stamp it out.

This is not an internal fight between north and south, Catholic vs Protestant so don't bring it down to the level that they want you to.

This has to be kept focussed on a paramilitary group within the UK taking action against a UK government and if they carry out any violence in the Republic it has to be reported as an attack on the EU and if they target Catholics in Northern Ireland without consequence it has to be reported that the UK government are allowing it's own citizens to be murdered because of their incompetence of implementing a protocol that they have approved.

Also if they are to see people as traitors to them then it would be Tory UK government who approved the NI protocol.

fly_agaric · 04-03-2021 11:55AM

dogbert27 wrote: »

Ireland would have to use this internationally to be seen as an EU country being attacked by UK insurgents for a protocol approved and being implemented by their own government and have the EU demand action from the UK to stamp it out.

This is not an internal fight between north and south, Catholic vs Protestant so don't bring it down to the level that they want you to.

This has to be kept focussed on a paramilitary group within the UK taking action against a UK government and if they carry out any violence in the Republic it has to be reported as an attack on the EU and if they target Catholics in Northern Ireland without consequence it has to be reported that the UK government are allowing it's own citizens to be murdered because of their incompetence of implementing a protocol that they have approved.

Also if they are to see people as traitors to them then it would be Tory UK government who approved the NI protocol.

Sorry I agree with you really (as regards what has happened and the reality of the situation if they went back to violence). I was not trying to descend to their level there, just trying to explain the warped mindset as I see it, which has very little relation to the truth of matters or history of Brexit since 2016 that has taken us here.

You mentioned "suicide" and they are in a sort of death-spiral and railing against reality. Nothing that Unionists (let alone Loyalists) have done since 2016 has much sense let alone strategic logic to me.

I suppose if they did attack local border infrastructure etc. or port/UK customs officials (perhaps Catholic/nationalist by co-inky-dink??) that is technically attacking the "UK government" alright, but they would not see it that way.

dogbert27 · 04-03-2021 12:00PM

fly_agaric wrote: »

Sorry I agree with you really (as regards what has happened). I was not trying to descend to their level there, just trying to explain the warped mindset as I see it, which has very little relation to the truth of matters or history of Brexit since 2016 that has taken us here.

You mentioned "suicide" and they are in a sort of death-spiral and railing against reality. Nothing that Unionists (let alone Loyalists) have done since 2016 has much sense let alone strategic logic to me.

I suppose if they did attack local border infrastructure etc. or port/UK customs officials (perhaps Catholic/nationalist by co-inky-dink??) that is technically attacking the "UK government" alright, but they would not see it that way.

Exactly, they wouldn't see it that way I'm sure as they'll believe their hindering the EU in some way but as you say it is technically attacking the UK government and the UK government will have to retaliate quickly to stamp it out.
Although I could see Boris initially claim that it is an internal matter for Northern Ireland to address!

fly_agaric · 04-03-2021 12:09PM

dogbert27 wrote: »

Although I could see Boris initially claim that it is an internal matter for Northern Ireland to address!

Quite possible...I hope we're still a ways away from such scenarios ever coming to pass but I'd agree with other poster(s) that they would not limit themselves in the long run to the local port infrastructure or staff working there (the "UK government officials" to us, but "traitors" to them).

seamus · 04-03-2021 12:17PM

dogbert27 wrote: »

If they start a campaign they will not be attacking the EU or Republicans but the British government so are they really going to start a civil war?

The EU will not get involved and say it's an internal UK matter to address.

They claim to be committed to peace, but if they want to get violent about it, their first aim will be to try and drag Ireland into the fight. Ireland and the EU are the bogeyman trying to tear apart the UK.

They could try and force the UK government's hand to negotiate a change where there are no borders at all, by attacking any customs checks in the North.

But I think they're more likely to do something to try and force a hard border in Ireland. Strategic targets in the north and potentially in the Republic, to try and stir nationalists into retaliating. Collapse the GFA, bring back a border.

Whatever their intention, this is a very irresponsible move by the loyalists.

All it will take is a few weeks of tension, and some Michael Stone-type nutjob in his 20s will get pissed off waiting for the politicians to do something, and will carry out an attack on his own. That's what they've signalled by their statement today.

yagan · 04-03-2021 12:28PM

Any violence from the British paramilitaries will give Johnson the perfect excuse to harden the Irish Sea border as the UDA/UVF are all just paddys and micks to the English Tory heartlands, roadkill of the empire they'd rather forget.

beggars_bush · 04-03-2021 12:34PM

And now we see why border infrastructure on the island is not a good idea

yagan · 04-03-2021 01:00PM

beggars_bush wrote: »

And now we see why border infrastructure on the island is not a good idea

Especially considering Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. There's no democratic support on the island for a hard land border.

Seth Brundle · 04-03-2021 02:31PM

Mod: Thread title updated

BonnieSituation · 04-03-2021 03:47PM

yagan wrote: »

Especially considering Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. There's no democratic support on the island for a hard land border.

We kept being reminded that the UK joined as one united kingdom and will leave as one united kingdom, so it's all the more confusing that when the UK Gov has signed up to the WA and the NIP and the GFA, that the loyalists feel they don't agree with their own government.

So if loyalism doesn't agree with the Irish government, the UK government, Alliance and Nationalists, then who do they agree with?*

*This is rhetorical. We all know that hypocrisy is the go to ideal for Loyalism.

yagan · 04-03-2021 04:02PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

So if loyalism doesn't agree with the Irish government, the UK government, Alliance and Nationalists, then who do they agree with?*
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Who are they and what do they represent to humanity?

We know Carson went to the Kaiser to discuss switching allegiance and secured 25.000 German guns with which to oppose the Home Rule Bill, so they were never really loyal to Britain, and only ever British when it suited their agenda. But what is their agenda?

They are narrow path calvinists who believe they are gods chosen tribe and Ulster is their promised land.

You can't negotiate with a cult.

Infini · 05-03-2021 07:26PM

stoneill wrote: »

Now the Loyalists are saying they are pulling support for the GFA over the Irish Sea border issue.

https://www.dw.com/en/northern-ireland-loyalists-pull-support-for-good-friday-peace-deal/a-56766549

What will they do? Bomb indiscriminately? Shoot port workers?

Do nothing except bluster to be honest. The DUP and these Loyalist Crime Gang's are basically living in another reality. They dont have the support they think they do and they've spent the last number of year's undermining their own support base by constantly supporting this failed Brexit Ideology.

Let's be honest here, the NI protocol isn't going to go anywhere, as much as the Tories try to agitate otherwise when faced with real threats they're cowed quickly because at the core they're incompetent idiots. If they keep agitating like this it's going to backfire on them. There's plenty of ways to put the pressure on the Tories gradually and effectively by targeting area's where they will feel the hurt the most.

This isn't 1970 or 1980 it's 2021. Time's have changed. People have changed. An entire Generation of people have grown up without the threat's or violence of previous decades and these Loyalist headbangers are quite honestly way out of their depth. This whole problem was caused and created BY the Tories. Not only that but the majority of people there are only intent on getting on with their lives.

If they start getting out of hand the most likely result is the Brit's are going to end up rounding them up and arresting them and sending them back to Jail. They neither have the capabilities or widescale support of the people anymore. More so over the last number of year's the DUP have done more to undermine the union they supposedly support with their headbanger antics, I honestly think their actions are because they're threatened by the Alliance Party taking their votes and marginalising these incompetent headbangers.

They cannot mount any serious campaign and if they were to actually to attempt a bombing of the republic it would have serious ramifications for the UK internationally as they would only be able to do something like that with explicit government support which they no longer have. They'd likely be intercepted before even getting that far now with the advancement of technology and that.

It's ultimately the last gasp of a dying breed, their tactics and threat's are no longer potent, they no longer have the support of the communities and arguably the state itself and they're throwing their toys out of the pram trying to look imposing but are only alienating themselves further and further from people. They need to face the consequences of their decisions and accept they messed up with Brexit and if they have grievances then they best take them up with Boris as noone else wanted this except him and his party.

RandomViewer · 06-03-2021 12:26AM

Infini wrote: »

Do nothing except bluster to be honest. The DUP and these Loyalist Crime Gang's are basically living in another reality. They dont have the support they think they do and they've spent the last number of year's undermining their own support base by constantly supporting this failed Brexit Ideology.

Let's be honest here, the NI protocol isn't going to go anywhere, as much as the Tories try to agitate otherwise when faced with real threats they're cowed quickly because at the core they're incompetent idiots. If they keep agitating like this it's going to backfire on them. There's plenty of ways to put the pressure on the Tories gradually and effectively by targeting area's where they will feel the hurt the most.

This isn't 1970 or 1980 it's 2021. Time's have changed. People have changed. An entire Generation of people have grown up without the threat's or violence of previous decades and these Loyalist headbangers are quite honestly way out of their depth. This whole problem was caused and created BY the Tories. Not only that but the majority of people there are only intent on getting on with their lives.

If they start getting out of hand the most likely result is the Brit's are going to end up rounding them up and arresting them and sending them back to Jail. They neither have the capabilities or widescale support of the people anymore. More so over the last number of year's the DUP have done more to undermine the union they supposedly support with their headbanger antics, I honestly think their actions are because they're threatened by the Alliance Party taking their votes and marginalising these incompetent headbangers.

They cannot mount any serious campaign and if they were to actually to attempt a bombing of the republic it would have serious ramifications for the UK internationally as they would only be able to do something like that with explicit government support which they no longer have. They'd likely be intercepted before even getting that far now with the advancement of technology and that.

It's ultimately the last gasp of a dying breed, their tactics and threat's are no longer potent, they no longer have the support of the communities and arguably the state itself and they're throwing their toys out of the pram trying to look imposing but are only alienating themselves further and further from people. They need to face the consequences of their decisions and accept they messed up with Brexit and if they have grievances then they best take them up with Boris as noone else wanted this except him and his party.

Loyalism has always had the odd spook to assist them for their big shows, wouldnt be surprised at something nasty happening, no idea what but would suggest upping security

schmoo2k · 10-03-2021 10:24AM

Add from New York Times + Washington Post - bound to help the NI protocol issue no end:
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Hurrache · 10-03-2021 10:55AM

All they're short of is supplying bank details and ask for donations to the cause.

yagan · 10-03-2021 11:08AM

Hurrache wrote: »

All they're short of is supplying bank details and ask for donations to the cause.

I could be wrong but I reckon they're all "Super PACs". While we're more used to tax exemptions for the likes of charities campaigning against poverty, homelessness etc.. over in the USA they're used to funding pressure groups focused on single issues outside the domestic election cycle.

Hurrache · 10-03-2021 11:35AM

Yeah, I'm familiar with them and the groups who signed that most likely are.

When I lived over there, not long after the GFA was signed, you'd be plagued by guys asking for donations for the cause if you had the misfortune to visit a seedy Irish bar so I was just observing that's all that's missing.

FrancieBrady · 10-03-2021 11:39AM

schmoo2k wrote: »

Add from New York Times + Washington Post - bound to help the NI protocol issue no end:

A strong front is required to ensure the NI protocol survives. The diaspora engaged and rallied around the GFA, why not now?

Is this sit in the corner and be quiet time for nationalists again?

yagan · 10-03-2021 11:47AM

It's needed because not talking about a united Ireland is ostrich behaviour. FG and FF may not want to upset the DUP, but SF exists because of the sectarianism of the calvinist planters, which is the foundation of the NI unionist identity.

The unionists only loyalism is to themselves.

PeadarCo · 10-03-2021 12:06PM

yagan wrote: »

It's needed because not talking about a united Ireland is ostrich behaviour. FG and FF may not want to upset the DUP, but SF exists because of the sectarianism of the calvinist planters, which is the foundation of the NI unionist identity.

The unionists only loyalism is to themselves.

Talking about a united Ireland is what has caused this mess. You do understand the "calvinist planters" are dead and buried a few hundred years ago at this stage. It's pure hypocrisy to complain about sectarianism and refer to your fellow Irish people with the term "planters" . Unionists under the GFA are Irish and are entitled to an Irish passport it doesn't matter if their idea of being Irish is different than yours. If a person is born(with one exception) in Ireland a person is entitled to an Irish passport. We don't go back a few hundred years through a person's lineage before the decision is made.

What Northern Ireland needs is less talk about a united Ireland. If Brexit results in NI being more integrated into the Republics economy than the UKs the pressure for a united Ireland will naturally grow. Get the protocol working first.

FrancieBrady · 10-03-2021 12:12PM

PeadarCo wrote: »

Talking about a united Ireland is what has caused this mess.

How so?

I was under the impression it was Brexit and an uncritical allegiance to Tory Britain that caused 'this mess'.

Hurrache · 10-03-2021 12:13PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A strong front is required to ensure the NI protocol survives. The diaspora engaged and rallied around the GFA, why not now?

Is this sit in the corner and be quiet time for nationalists again?

It's all well and good for the diaspora arguing for a united Ireland from thousands of miles away, it's completely different when you have to live with it.

Fionn1952 · 10-03-2021 12:14PM

PeadarCo wrote: »

Talking about a united Ireland is what has caused this mess. You do understand the "calvinist planters" are dead and buried a few hundred years ago at this stage. It's pure hypocrisy to complain about sectarianism and refer to your fellow Irish people with the term "planters" . Unionists under the GFA are Irish and are entitled to an Irish passport it doesn't matter if their idea of being Irish is different than yours. If a person is born(with one exception) in Ireland a person is entitled to an Irish passport. We don't go back a few hundred years through a person's lineage before the decision is made.

What Northern Ireland needs is less talk about a united Ireland. If Brexit results in NI being more integrated into the Republics economy than the UKs the pressure for a united Ireland will naturally grow. Get the protocol working first.

Quite a few NI Unionists would object to your telling them that they're Irish. As per the GFA, the people of NI are British, Irish OR both.

Not to undermine your overall point about the folly of referring to people who have lived there for generations as 'Calvanist Planters', some of which feature in my own ancestry (and the ancestry of an awful lot of staunch Republicans from NI).

Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

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