2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Villa05 · 14-02-2021 04:43PM

MacronvFrugals wrote:

A Business Post analysis has revealed that apartment costs are set to rise far beyond the mortgage-borrowing ability of many prospective new homeowners

In figures supplied by developers. Quell surprise

Eric Cartman · 14-02-2021 05:04PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I hope you're not gay or a women...

What have they got against women ? Tbh id take any amount of social conservatism if I was given more economic freedom, as long as taxes are low, I can build a big one off house and alcohol and petrol are cheaper than here then im gold.

MacronvFrugals · 14-02-2021 05:23PM

Eric Cartman wrote: »

What have they got against women ? Tbh id take any amount of social conservatism if I was given more economic freedom, as long as taxes are low, I can build a big one off house and alcohol and petrol are cheaper than here then im gold.

That's quite a statement considering you're probably a white hetero male

MacronvFrugals · 14-02-2021 05:40PM

Fianna Fail on 14.7%, the shared equity scheme looks to be a desperate attempt to turn the housing brief into a vote winner, those who want a continual rise in property prices will eventually shoot themselves and everyone else in the foot!

Sinn Féin leads in new poll despite slippage

Sinn Féin remains the most popular party in the country despite slipping somewhat in the latest opinion poll.

The Irish Mail On Sunday/Ireland Thinks poll published today also shows that Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald is the most popular leader in the country.

The poll shows that Ms McDonald is now more highly-rated than Tánaiste Leo Varadkar, though both have seen their rating out of 10 drop.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40226633.html

combat14 · 14-02-2021 05:46PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Many first-time buyers will be frozen out of purchasing new apartments

A Business Post analysis has revealed that apartment costs are set to rise far beyond the mortgage-borrowing ability of many prospective new homeowners

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/many-first-time-buyers-will-be-frozen-out-of-purchasing-new-apartments-dfea5e76?auth=login

so who will pay for over priced apartments then the FF government or REITs ..

Eric Cartman · 14-02-2021 06:56PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

That's quite a statement considering you're probably a white hetero male

Fair enough but everyone is allowed their priorities in choosing what country they live in. My priority is not being economically oppressed by taxation and the cost of living, others may prioritise the treatment of minority groups, my ability to live comfortably somewhere except Ireland is not a reflection on my support of that countries views on other groups.

When choosing a country to move to, the treatment of demographics I do not belong to wouldn't even enter my mind.

Eric Cartman · 14-02-2021 06:57PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Fianna Fail on 14.7%, the shared equity scheme looks to be a desperate attempt to turn the housing brief into a vote winner, those who want a continual rise in property prices will eventually shoot themselves and everyone else in the foot!

Sinn Féin leads in new poll despite slippage

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40226633.html

FF have really been struggling with the housing brief, they want to keep promising like SF do but then given half a chance and ofcourse not delivered.

decreds · 14-02-2021 08:34PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

That's quite a statement considering you're probably a white hetero male

He's probably best off there the way things are going. The most amount of racism in the west is actually against white hetero males, if you highlight this you're labelled racist, of course.

cnocbui · 14-02-2021 08:56PM

enricoh wrote: »

I take it your not a tradesperson or builder! They took plenty of cuts from 2008-2014/5. You have to make hay while it shines in building.

I was being sarcastic.

Fuzzy_Dunlop · 14-02-2021 09:08PM

decreds wrote: »

He's probably best off there the way things are going. The most amount of racism in the west is actually against white hetero males, if you highlight this you're labelled racist, of course.

This obviously isn't the thread for it but what a load of nonsense

combat14 · 15-02-2021 10:59AM

sounds like the country has almost run out of the 5.5 billion covid fund as 150,000 hospitality workers remain out of work for many months with no end in sight

wonder where all the new PUP support money etc will come from

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/wed-have-to-have-critical-mass-vaccinated-pubs-hotels-and-restaurants-set-to-stay-shut-for-several-more-months-40091562.html

Mic 1972 · 15-02-2021 12:22PM

They'll print more money

fliball123 · 15-02-2021 12:24PM

decreds wrote: »

Projected population growth is severely over estimated (at least for this decade) for multiple reasons:

* We won't have mass immigration for years
* Less people are dating/meeting new people
* People are fearful, fearful people tend to put off reproducing
* There is going to be a historical amount of divorces/separations incoming

Point1 So have you a crystal ball for immigrations?
Point2 Dating is now all done online?
Point3 You mean a bucking of the trend of Irish people for over the last 100 years. We are one of the most fertile counties in the world. Also there is no other country that gives an unmarried mum the handouts we do. Literally last week a niece of mine who works earning 40k , has 3 kids from 2 different dads so she gets money under the table from both and is not included as part of looking after the kids and she got an apartment brand new fully funished all new furniture and she pays 25 Euro a week from the council. What is there to be afraid of ??
Point4 Surely a divorce or separation would result in 2 properties being needed instead of 1 so it would mean we need more properties.

BTownB · 15-02-2021 12:33PM

Any idea when viewing restrictions will lift?

They weren't in place for the last Level 5 in November so 5th March might be realistic.

HansKroenke · 15-02-2021 12:35PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

They'll print more money

This is where people with common sense and rationale opinions get torn down; there is a magic money printer spitting out billions with a few buttons to press. Rationale arguments to do with the economy are not necessary when there is unlimited, free money being created. The covid fund running out, talk of tax increases etc are not issues since we will just create money to not have to worry about these things.

Villa05 · 15-02-2021 12:48PM

I remember when I was younger that when the census came around there was division in our family household on filling it in. I could not understand it at the time as I had bought into the arguments for completing it honestly.

As you grow older you begin to see why people are against it.
It's clearly not used for future infrastructure and planning needs

You can see clearly how people are frothing at the mouth at how they can exploit demographics, planning for these demographic changes seems very low down the list of priorities, if at all

The_Conductor · 15-02-2021 12:50PM

HansKroenke wrote: »

This is where people with common sense and rationale opinions get torn down; there is a magic money printer spitting out billions with a few buttons to press. Rationale arguments to do with the economy are not necessary when there is unlimited, free money being created. The covid fund running out, talk of tax increases etc are not issues since we will just create money to not have to worry about these things.

My head hurts when I read comments like this.
We cannot simply print unlimited sums of money- the implications of doing so are wretched, and we are already in trouble with the amount of liquidity that has been introduced into global financial systems (look at all the asset price bubbles out there already).

Contrary to the belief of some people- there simply is not a magic money tree, and regardless of how liquidity has been introduced into the system, there will be a day of reckoning, like it or lump it.

Ireland is coasting at the moment, because of ultra low interest rates- however, in 2020 we still paid 5.85 billion in interest on our sovereign debt. This is a large chunk of change, and even with low interest rates, it is growing.

Ireland has historically never defaulted on its sovereign debts- which is why our rating is so high in comparison to many other EU countries. Whatever happens, the Irish political system will not stomach talking about a default in the future.

Magic money trees- are wishful thinking, and are not going to pass.

Btw- we have already signed up to balance our budget again by 2025- and Covid may still be knocking around even at that stage..........

Magic money trees- are akin to magical dragons, unicorns, elves and Santa Claus. They may give us a warm fuzzy feeling- but they don't exist other than in our imaginations.

Villa05 · 15-02-2021 01:03PM

fliball123 wrote:

Point1 So have you a crystal ball for immigrations? Point2 Dating is now all done online? Point3 You mean a bucking of the trend of Irish people for over the last 100 years. We are one of the most fertile counties in the world. Also there is no other country that gives an unmarried mum the handouts we do. Literally last week a niece of mine who works earning 40k , has 3 kids from 2 different dads and she got an apartment brand new fully funished all new furniture and she pays 25 Euro a week. What is there to be afraid of ?? Point4 Surely a divorce or separation would result in 2 properties being needed instead of 1 so it would mean we need more properties.

The arguments get more and more surreal

Get a mortgage, don't worry if you can't pay it, you'll still keep the house, someone else can pay

It takes 2 to make a child, let's stop focussing on 1 side of the equation

Affordability apparently is based on 2 income earners on average salary of apparently 49k, however household incomes of greater than 98k represent the top 10% of households

If that couple split up, what harm for property then they'll need 2

Our property bubble is built on solid foundations

The_Conductor · 15-02-2021 01:13PM

Bruno Millions Geisha wrote: »

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/retail-fashion-falls-into-a-sinkhole-on-the-irish-high-street-vtst8f3ww

"Department store Debenhams, which closed last year, has left nearly one million sq ft of empty retail space across Ireland, according to Neil Bannon of commercial property consultancy Bannon. All told, it is possible that the equivalent square footage of Dundrum Town Centre will have been vacated by the fashion retail crash. According to the Irish accounts of exiting retailers, the loss in landlord rent is at least €40 million."

What happens with all of this? Do people see these spaces being converted or what? The numbers are craxy

It would take some doing- however, why not convert them to apartments? It would be one hell of a way to deliver volumes of apartments in central locations......... Not sure about the rent roll- but the writing is on the wall.

Zenify · 15-02-2021 01:27PM

Just came across this:

http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php

Watch the money tree go. If it doesn't scare you something is wrong.

fliball123 · 15-02-2021 01:29PM

Villa05 wrote: »

The arguments get more and more surreal

Get a mortgage, don't worry if you can't pay it, you'll still keep the house, someone else can pay

It takes 2 to make a child, let's stop focussing on 1 side of the equation

Affordability apparently is based on 2 income earners on average salary of apparently 49k, however household incomes of greater than 98k represent the top 10% of households

If that couple split up, what harm for property then they'll need 2

Our property bubble is built on solid foundations

It does take 2 to make a child but the onus is not on daddy to provide support for his offspring they can just ignore it. Affordability I have caculated that even at the median income almost half the properties available on myhome are affordable on 3.5 salary( in other countries this is higher) and a 10% deposit. So there is affordability just some people want to live in areas that are in demand and guess what that means you have to pay more just like every other country on the planet.

I was countering the posters points that would mean the projected figures of new housing needed are not correct that we would need less point 4 in their post was talking about people breaking up in that scenario 2 properties are needed instead of one. Just highlighting a flaw in their logic.

Have you any evidence that we currently have a property bubble?

Hubertj · 15-02-2021 01:45PM

Villa05 wrote: »

The arguments get more and more surreal

Get a mortgage, don't worry if you can't pay it, you'll still keep the house, someone else can pay

It takes 2 to make a child, let's stop focussing on 1 side of the equation

Affordability apparently is based on 2 income earners on average salary of apparently 49k, however household incomes of greater than 98k represent the top 10% of households

If that couple split up, what harm for property then they'll need 2

Our property bubble is built on solid foundations

Do you know many people who did or do buy a property on 1 income? I don’t. My father worked 2 jobs and my mum 1 job so they could buy. I don’t really get people banging on about this point.

Cyrus · 15-02-2021 03:51PM

A few people alluded to this but this stanford study shows people who wfh full time have much worse promotion prospects.

Bloom’s research suggests there is reason to be concerned. A study he did on a big Chinese travel company that tested working from home nearly a decade ago showed people at home were promoted at about half the rate of those in the office.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/think-that-working-from-home-is-here-to-stay-think-again-1.4484553?localLinksEnabled=false&utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=RSS%3AITEM%3ATITLE&utm_campaign=lunchtime_latest_digest

Villa05 · 15-02-2021 04:17PM

Hubertj wrote:

Do you know many people who did or do buy a property on 1 income? .

I do, but that's a function of my location.

Villa05 · 15-02-2021 04:21PM

Hubertj wrote:

Do you know many people who did or do buy a property on 1 income? I donâ€™t. My father worked 2 jobs and my mum 1 job so they could buy. I donâ€™t really get people banging on about this point.

I think you may have misread my point, divorce/separation sucks more money out of the economy through rents.
Families can be seriously financially affected that the state needs to step in through subsidies or lost income

fliball123 · 15-02-2021 04:27PM

Villa05 wrote: »

I think you may have misread my point, divorce/separation sucks more money out of the economy through rents.
Families can be seriously financially affected that the state needs to step in through subsidies or lost income

The main thing is that instead of needing one property you need two as its very rare to have a good breakup where people will live with the ex like roomies regardless of how the new family dynamic is paid for

Villa05 · 15-02-2021 04:33PM

fliball123 wrote:

The main thing is that instead of needing one property you need 2 regardless of how the new family dynamic is paid for

That's my point check out the debt clock of the entity that will be underwriting it

Zenify wrote:

Just came across this:

Zenify wrote:

Watch the money tree go. If it doesn't scare you something is wrong.

hometruths · 15-02-2021 04:35PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Have you any evidence that we currently have a property bubble?

That's a tricky question as bubbles can really ony be definitively confirmed in hindsight - ie once it has burst.

However, unsurprisingly there is lots of academic studies on bubbles, for example:

The standard definition of an asset price bubble is a large and long-lasting deviation of the price of some assets – such as a stock, a bond or a house – from their ‘fundamental value’, which is the expected discounted income or other benefit and valuation increase over the holding time-horizon (Kindleberger and Aliber 2005, Blinder 2013). While the definition is conceptually clear, in practice it is very difficult to identify a bubble. What may appear ex post as a bubble, after an ensuing price crash, may have been seen ex ante as a rational investment by many sophisticated investors.

Have we deviated from the fundamental value of house prices?

I think we have, because the price increases have been driven by market manipulations and interventions rather than fundamentals.

By that I mean that some are saying property prices will remain strong because demand will continue to exceed supply - on the face of it solid argument based on fundamentals.

But it ignores the fact that demand will only hold up at current levels if it remains stimulated - eg shared equity schemes - and supply will only remain tight if it remains restricted - eg low turnover, vacancies etc.

So on closer inspection the sound fundamentals argument for current prices is not actually based on sound fundamentals.

15-02-2021 04:41PM

Hubertj wrote: »

Do you know many people who did or do buy a property on 1 income? I don’t. My father worked 2 jobs and my mum 1 job so they could buy. I don’t really get people banging on about this point.

Loads of single people buy property?

jill_valentine · 15-02-2021 04:56PM

Cyrus wrote: »

A few people alluded to this but this stanford study shows people who wfh full time have much worse promotion prospects.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/think-that-working-from-home-is-here-to-stay-think-again-1.4484553?localLinksEnabled=false&utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=RSS%3AITEM%3ATITLE&utm_campaign=lunchtime_latest_digest

I'm open to having my mind changed, but I'd suggest our attitude to WFH here going forward might be deeply coloured by the circumstances it came in.

When the pandemic flexed, Management had the luxury of declaring themselves WFH staff that grunts did not. Having to stay in the office is starting to take on something just short of negative connotations as a result - all the prestige work is WFH'able, the dogsbody jobs are for people in office. (Indeed all of my avenues to promotion from my current job mean going full time WFH for at least the next year.)

My experience is anecdata obviously, but it would lead me to think the psychology of 2020-1 Ireland might be at odds of the study done some years ago.

Quite a dramatic headline vs content clash here also

Think that working from home is here to stay? Think again

His latest co-authored study, based on months of surveys of 22,500 Americans up until December, suggests homeworking is indeed here to stay.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1