2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

MacronvFrugals · 10-02-2021 04:00PM

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Balluba · 10-02-2021 04:02PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Really can you show me a stadium like Croke Park anywhere in the world that has such history, players shot on the field, etc. That IMO is the embodiment of a country?

I agree Croke Park is an amazing experience for visitors. However people who live in the surrounding areas have their parking ‘stolen’ by those attending matches or other major events. Oftentimes people are locked out of their own driveways.
Depends how you define best in the world. Of course you could forget to factor in the quality of life of those living nearby who put up with noise, traffic pollution,
litter etc.

Cyrus · 10-02-2021 04:15PM

schmittel wrote: »

In my 20s and early 30s I lived in a four different major cities and loved it.

Mid 30s I moved to where I live now and loved it, was no longer out of the house six nights a week, appreciated the extra space and privacy and was only 30 mins from Dublin anyway.

By the time I was in my early 40s I had two young kids and pre lockdown had not been to Dublin socially in a couple of years.

I'd bet this is fairly typical. I love the pub and going out, but for the next 15 years at least my focus is on creating the best home/family environment for my children, not ensuring I have a decent range of pubs and restaurants on my doorstep.

Part of that home environment is making sure we are not under undue financial pressure. I'd bet that is fairly typical too.

Edit; having said all that my wife does get annoyed when I check out local pubs if she shows me a house.

and when i compare the vast amount of activities that i can bring my kids to that are within 5 minutes of where i live and compare that to where i grew up im delighted i chose to live where i have. also we take the kids to restaurants (or at least we used to) thats allowed. and the odd time i even get to goto one of the many excellent bars within 10 minutes walk of my house, there is even a footpath

thefridge2006 · 10-02-2021 04:35PM

Cyrus wrote: »

this is absolute nonsense,

i have a car yet i take the dart to work, and the dart, is great. Takes me exactly where i want to go.

As long as its on the DART line of course.......:cool:

Cyrus · 10-02-2021 04:40PM

thefridge2006 wrote: »

As long as its on the DART line of course.......:cool:

:cool::cool:

hometruths · 10-02-2021 05:04PM

WFHing is not without its challenges:

10-02-2021 05:30PM

I reached sale agreed back in September but it seems like it's falling through now. I haven't looked at daft since... have prices risen or am I imagining things?

jill_valentine · 10-02-2021 05:46PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I reached sale agreed back in September but it seems like it's falling through now. I haven't looked at daft since... have prices risen or am I imagining things?

I'm afraid they do seem to have, as supply has dried up considerably. It may start moving again when lockdown starts easing, but who knows.

yagan · 10-02-2021 05:54PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Pop quiz.
1 - What reason do people give for wanting to leave the city and move to a rural town? Probably overwhelmingly one answer to this.

2 - What reason do people give for wanting to leave a rural area and move to a city? Probably different answers from each of the tens of thousands who do this every year.

Just to be precise, this isn't just a Dublin versus Rural decision.

For me rural = car dependency, which is also a reality of living in Dublin for many.

The best option is where you have work and all the basic necessities of modern living within walking or easy cycling distance. A lot of towns in Ireland would tick that box for most people once they have the job sorted, and working from home is only going to enhance peoples options and the vibrancy of the towns they escape to.

cnocbui · 10-02-2021 05:57PM

Availability is going to get worse, not better - IMO, paricularly outside Dublin, where very few houses were built since 2008, due their construction cost being greater than their finished market value.

70% of young people still living in the family home would suggest demand will be considerable for some time.

Reins · 10-02-2021 06:20PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I reached sale agreed back in September but it seems like it's falling through now. I haven't looked at daft since... have prices risen or am I imagining things?

Do you mind sharing as to why it looks like it's going to fall through?

10-02-2021 06:21PM

jill_valentine wrote: »

I'm afraid they do seem to have, as supply has dried up considerably. It may start moving again when lockdown starts easing, but who knows.

Here's hoping. Though I have more wiggle room as I've saved more over the past six months.

yagan · 10-02-2021 06:36PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Availability is going to get worse, not better - IMO, paricularly outside Dublin, where very few houses were built since 2008, due their construction cost being greater than their finished market value.

70% of young people still living in the family home would suggest demand will be considerable for some time.

I've been looking a particular area in north county Dublin and I'm seen a lot of the same property over €350K not moving, but there's been plenty of turnover of new builds aimed under that price according to the PPR.

The market up to the lending limit seem active, but above that it seems to have stalled.

Stark · 10-02-2021 06:58PM

jill_valentine wrote: »

I'm afraid they do seem to have, as supply has dried up considerably. It may start moving again when lockdown starts easing, but who knows.

I read somewhere that a lot of older people are afraid to open their homes up for viewings at the moment so that's restricting supply somewhat.

jill_valentine · 10-02-2021 07:52PM

Stark wrote: »

I read somewhere that a lot of older people are afraid to open their homes up for viewings at the moment so that's restricting supply somewhat.

I can well believe it, and fair enough really.

Bit of a killer though, I would have had my pick of places I want with my current approval this time last year, but instead the goals feel further away than ever.

Marius34 · 10-02-2021 07:56PM

Stark wrote: »

I read somewhere that a lot of older people are afraid to open their homes up for viewings at the moment so that's restricting supply somewhat.

Not sure what will be the impact, but majority of old people(70+) to be vaccinated in March.

combat14 · 10-02-2021 08:09PM

Mortgage rates could rise again if Ulster Bank quits

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/mortgage-rates-could-rise-again-if-ulster-bank-quits-40075014.html

hard to believe talk of rate rises again - adds to certainty buying house

wassie · 10-02-2021 08:24PM

Stark wrote: »

I read somewhere that a lot of older people are afraid to open their homes up for viewings at the moment so that's restricting supply somewhat.

I've had a few agents report that they see a big problem with many current owners wanting to trade up but aren't prepared to go to market as theres nothing to trade up to....and round it goes....

Timing belt · 10-02-2021 08:31PM

combat14 wrote: »

Mortgage rates could rise again if Ulster Bank quits

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/mortgage-rates-could-rise-again-if-ulster-bank-quits-40075014.html

hard to believe talk of rate rises again - adds to certainty buying house

Any rise will be less 0.2% as it is not a rate rise by the ECB but the banks increasing their margin because of less competition if they get away with it.

awec · 10-02-2021 10:04PM

Stark wrote: »

I read somewhere that a lot of older people are afraid to open their homes up for viewings at the moment so that's restricting supply somewhat.

I doubt it's just older people.

Could you really be arsed with selling your house with the way things are right now?

Gradius · 10-02-2021 10:23PM

Following on from my posts in the "currently buying/selling"thread...

If you could only view history through economic graphs, in this case property prices, would you be able to identify the impact of a year+ global pandemic?

Should be obvious that "something very bad happened at this point", right?

Yet 2020 may as well be 2019. Strange!

cnocbui · 10-02-2021 10:42PM

Gradius wrote: »

Following on from my posts in the "currently buying/selling"thread...

If you could only view history through economic graphs, in this case property prices, would you be able to identify the impact of a year+ global pandemic?

Should be obvious that "something very bad happened at this point", right?

Yet 2020 may as well be 2019. Strange!

Hardly going to be a boom year for housing stock construction, so shouldn't surprise at all.

Hubertj · 10-02-2021 10:45PM

Gradius wrote: »

Following on from my posts in the "currently buying/selling"thread...

If you could only view history through economic graphs, in this case property prices, would you be able to identify the impact of a year+ global pandemic?

Should be obvious that "something very bad happened at this point", right?

Yet 2020 may as well be 2019. Strange!

What would be the last pandemic? Spanish flu? It would be an interesting comparison but I think other factors would have to be considered. For example, I presume the economic impact of WW1 would have had an negative impact on prices.
During COVID governments have been able to borrow large amounts of money to support the economy and some sections of the economy haven’t been impacted very much. So would such a comparison actually inform us as to what might happen over the coming 12-24 months?

Gradius · 10-02-2021 11:05PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Hardly going to be a boom year for housing stock construction, so shouldn't surprise at all.

On the contrary, I find it not only surprising but bewildering.

Millions dead, employment numbers going through the floor, businesses closing left and right, no clear end in sight, debt spiralling out of control and so on and so on.

Just robbing a few graphs taken willy nilly to illustrate my overall point point...

I would confidently argue a lot of statistics floating around are supremely "optimistic" (if you don't like the word "cooked"). Yet, despite these hard realities, the likes of the below is happening in real time...

There is something seriously wrong with the overall picture here, seriously wrong.

Sierra Oscar · 10-02-2021 11:10PM

Gradius wrote: »

On the contrary, I find it not only surprising but bewildering.

Millions dead, employment numbers going through the floor, businesses closing left and right, no clear end in sight, debt spiralling out of control and so on and so on.

Just robbing a few graphs taken willy nilly to illustrate my overall point point...

I would confidently argue a lot of statistics floating around are supremely "optimistic" (if you don't like the word "cooked"). Yet, despite these hard realities, the likes of the below is happening in real time...

There is something seriously wrong with the overall picture here, seriously wrong.

The huge fall in new completions was always going to cushion any sort of a shock to property prices. Likewise, the presence of the PUP is keeping people out of work afloat and many couples who are still both working are saving an incredible amount of their monthly salaries. I'd argue that a lot of the people who have become unemployed, i.e. workers in the hospitality sector, weren't really the ones in the market to purchase a home and aren't the ones driving up prices.

Central Banks globally are also engaged in quantitive easing on a scale that has never been seen in the history of monetary policy. A lot of the money being created will inevitably end up finding its way into the housing market, as it has done so since the previous financial crisis.

I would agree with you though, it is all a bit mad.

Ninap · 10-02-2021 11:11PM

Gradius wrote: »

On the contrary, I find it not only surprising but bewildering.

Millions dead, employment numbers going through the floor, businesses closing left and right, no clear end in sight, debt spiralling out of control and so on and so on.

Just robbing a few graphs taken willy nilly to illustrate my overall point point...

I would confidently argue a lot of statistics floating around are supremely "optimistic" (if you don't like the word "cooked"). Yet, despite these hard realities, the likes of the below is happening in real time...

There is something seriously wrong with the overall picture here, seriously wrong.

The graph doesn’t shown ‘the impact of Covid on the stock market’. Instead it shows what has happened to the stock market during the period of the pandemic. And what has caused the large rise in prices is very clearly huge Cental Bank-provided liquidity, in search of a home.

Hubertj · 10-02-2021 11:19PM

Gradius wrote: »

On the contrary, I find it not only surprising but bewildering.

Millions dead, employment numbers going through the floor, businesses closing left and right, no clear end in sight, debt spiralling out of control and so on and so on.

Just robbing a few graphs taken willy nilly to illustrate my overall point point...

I would confidently argue a lot of statistics floating around are supremely "optimistic" (if you don't like the word "cooked"). Yet, despite these hard realities, the likes of the below is happening in real time...

There is something seriously wrong with the overall picture here, seriously wrong.

Some interesting info here. But in relation to the daft.ie pic I think that is asking prices and not actual prices. I believe 2020 prices as per CSO were about level compared to 2019 with increases and decreases in different areas.

Gradius · 10-02-2021 11:20PM

The huge fall in new completions was always going to cushion any sort of a shock to property prices. Likewise, the presence of the PUP is keeping people out of work afloat and many couples who are still both working are saving an incredibly amount of their monthly salaries. I'd argue that a lot of the people who have become unemployed, i.e. workers in the hospitality sector, weren't really the ones in the market to purchase a home and aren't the ones driving up prices.

Central Banks globally are also engaged in quantitive easing on a scale that has never been seen in the history of monetary policy. A lot of the money being created will inevitably end up finding its way into the housing market, as it has done so since the previous financial crisis.

I would agree with you though, it is all a bit mad.

Of course! The point is that the property market (and more) is almost diametrically opposed to reality: the worse shape the economy becomes, the better outlook people have!

But as you say, it's essentially make-believe. A bad company is about to go bust, a central bank buys the debt, and suddenly individuals are buying up stock like it's magically a "good" company. The reality is that nothing has changed, except you've been convinced into buying shares in a bad company.

But that kind of show can only last so long.

Gradius · 10-02-2021 11:23PM

The graph doesn’t shown ‘the impact of Covid on the stock market’. Instead it shows what has happened to the stock market during the period of the pandemic. And what has caused the large rise in prices is very clearly huge Cental Bank-provided liquidity, in search of a home.

Oh I know, just roughly grabbing an overall view of things. It's pie in the sky stuff, magic money.

But it all has to be paid for, someday soon.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 10-02-2021 11:25PM

I wonder for how many years prices in Dublin / Kildare will continue to rise for? Seems at least 3/4 until supply catches up.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1