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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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    #2942
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,574 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The Atlantic fronts really have to work on the ECM. Still in the freezer on Thursday. The milder air will still get through but it's an extra day.

    ECM0-144.GIF?05-0


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    #2943
    sicknotexi
    Registered Users Posts: 1,064 ✭✭✭sicknotexi


    The ECM keeps many in the cold up to 1pm Thursday. Definitely a step in the right direction.


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    #2944
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,140 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Newfoundland is in the middle of the Atlantic and has plenty of frigid days in a typical winter.

    I am sure there are more islands (for ex Jan Mayen) that are in the ocean and have cold winters.

    Yes, but are they influenced by the gulf stream like us? No? That's the point the user was making above.

    Anyway this is very chatty for this thread.

    The trends are all over the place lads, constantly extending the cold before pushing in a mild spell from run to run. Some of ye really need to cop on now, it's a headwreack to read these threads with constant bickering, insane optimism and pessimism, it seems the middle ground is growing smaller by the day.

    Currently, it looks as if there may be an end to this cold snap around Thursday (+/- a day or two), however, Thursday is 6 days away and outside the confidence zone, as are all charts in this thread. We simply speculate here as to what the weather could be like based on the best of knowledge.

    Take everything with a caveat.


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    #2945
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    The Atlantic fronts really have to work on the ECM. Still in the freezer on Thursday.

    ECM0-144.GIF?05-0

    See that
    Wide swathes of munster and Leinster and the Irish sea under -11 850's on wenesday


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    #2946
    Arduach
    Closed Accounts Posts: 618 ✭✭✭Arduach


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    No.. winds move from west to east.

    These are ocean currents:confused:


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    #2947
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Ecm looks to be a slight upgrade to me with colder uppers for wednesday across the whole island and cold hanging on slightly longer into Thursday


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    #2948
    Arduach
    Closed Accounts Posts: 618 ✭✭✭Arduach


    Still 2 days to play with re. the breakdown. It will be Sunday eve at least before we know. And we've had an ECM upgrade


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    #2949
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    No.. winds move from west to east.

    That's why New Foundland can be colder. Anywhere on the east if a large landmass (NA, Asia) will have colder winters than similar latitudes on the west of those landmasses due to the prevailing colder air flowing eastwards off the landmass. That's why northern Japan (same latitude as Morocco and southern California) gets the most snow of all.

    Jan Mayen is at 70N, 500 km east of Greenland.


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    #2950
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,574 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The mild air won't be kept out here but still I think it's worth keeping an eye on whether we see further pressure rises over Scandinavia...obviously need an undercutting low in to the continent but enough to work with here.


    ECM1-144.GIF?05-0


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    #2951
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    The Atlantic fronts really have to work on the ECM. Still in the freezer on Thursday. The milder air will still get through but it's an extra day.

    ECM0-144.GIF?05-0

    Good!


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    #2952
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,911 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    As I said earlier Met Eireann was saying East and North for snow risk. They'll have to change their tune pretty quick because all the snow has been stolen by Cork on latest runs hahaha
    ECM I awesome -10s across the South with heavy snow showers!!


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    #2953
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,987 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    ECM has -8 uppers in by 1pm Sunday and lasting until late Thursday night early Friday morning. A nice upgrade on the cold


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    #2954
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,163 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    As I said earlier Met Eireann was saying East and North for snow risk. They'll have to change their tune pretty quick because all the snow has been stolen by Cork on latest runs hahaha
    ECM I awesome -10s across the South with heavy snow showers!!

    Are you referring to Wednesday on or before then?


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    #2955
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,911 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    TheMilkyPirate wrote: »
    ECM has -8 uppers in by 1pm Sunday and lasting until late Thursday night early Friday morning. A nice upgrade on the cold
    -10 across quite a large area Monday to Wednesday


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    #2956
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,987 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    -10 across quite a large area Monday to Wednesday

    Yep it's colder during the week alright, I just mentioned -8 to highlight the onset and end of the cold.


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    #2957
    Donegal Ken
    Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    See that
    Wide swathes of munster and Leinster and the Irish sea under -11 850's on wenesday

    And much of Ulster


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    #2958
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    sicknotexi wrote: »
    The ECM keeps many in the cold up to 1pm Thursday. Definitely a step in the right direction.

    Longer!
    -10 and -11 850s in leinster Thursday!
    -12 in North leinster and Ulster


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    #2959
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,911 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    Are you referring to Wednesday on or before then?
    Monday to Wednesday we are more or less -10 uppers. When the wind swings south of East bingo heavy snow showers just like 2018. Must have either a straight East or South East though


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    #2960
    Chalkitdown147
    Registered Users Posts: 49 ✭Chalkitdown147


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Monday to Wednesday we are more or less -10 uppers. When the wind swings south of East bingo heavy snow showers just like 2018. Must have either a straight East or South East though

    Is this not reaching a little?? Hands up if I'm wrong


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    #2961
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Synoptics are the best I've seen for a potential slider low bringing snow to much of the country while not having it turn to rain, but these events are rare for a reason. It's a delight to see forecasts for this potential.


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    #2962
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,824 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Mod Note: Off topic posts moved to https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058101347


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    #2963
    Steopo
    Registered Users Posts: 239 ✭✭Steopo


    ECM showing lying snow across nearly all country Thurs 12pm to Fri midnight (it shows very little up until Thurs). I guess the reliability and depths can be taken with a pinch of salt at this stage but does show the snow potential on thurs by delaying cold which latest ECM is showing and expect Met E to be keeping an eye on this

    3VNCA3F.png


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    #2964
    almostthere12
    Registered Users Posts: 279 ✭✭almostthere12


    Question for the more knowledgeable out there, a few posters have mentioned the Atlantic being fired up by the cold weather in North America yet it is the Azores high that breaks up the cold party for us, does this mean that according to current models the Atlantic isn't being fired up that much?


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    #2965
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,774 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Very interesting change in the GFS ensembles on the 12z. Checking back on last nights pub run as well as the 6z see's what could be a fairly big shift to colder weather again into the second half of February.

    The 12z shows the inbound cold spell very well, followed by a rapid warming. The 12z shows a fairly mild spell between the 14th and 18th of February. It would appear we are rapidly losing the mild runs after the 18th of February to colder runs. This is possibly the first sign of another cold outbreak setting up for the final third of February. Will we see more of these mild members turn colder over the next few days indicating a second February cold blast?

    The mild section currently lasts for about 5 days, there is every possibility that the end of the incoming cold spell could be delayed by a day or two and the mild period reduced.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64969&var=201&run=12&date=2021-02-05&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1


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    #2966
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,910 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Interesting week coming up, could have freezing days for some and end up with temps of 10 to 12C or slightly more over the next weekend. Big squeeze on the isobars around Thurs Fri and will be interesting to see how much frontal activity is able to move in over Ireland those days and how long the cold will hang on. The cold should be in place and could be quite windy, maybe not a blizzard as such but fairly tough conditions would think if it happens like what some of the models are showing at the moment. Models differ in snow potential and where it might fall but looking like fairly widespread potential to me, could end up with a number of fronts and troughs bringing waves of snow up over Ireland, probably favoring most away from the SW with it lasting in the Northern half and NE the longest .

    Gi6OTYS.png

    MctP6fi.gif

    77WMu88.gif

    4avcSsw.png

    bUtS97H.png

    dIfdWeb.png

    UkBB6cf.png


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    #2967
    Arduach
    Closed Accounts Posts: 618 ✭✭✭Arduach


    ECM a 4-5 day event rather than a 3-4. That'll do. That's a nice spell.


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    #2968
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,774 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Just going through some of those colder GFS runs and the models are playing around Scandi highs and even retrogression to Greenland. This is pure fantasy stuff of course being so far out but some of these bring a proper cold blast to us.

    GFSP16EU12_318_1.png

    GFSP01EU12_342_1.png

    GFSP03EU12_342_1.png

    GFSP10EU12_342_1.png

    Will be interesting to see will more members fall in line with some of the above runs. Other runs bring back the Atlantic proper and others continue with very mild up from the south and some high pressure. Just about everything is on the table for the final part of February.

    If the upcoming cold spell does not deliver what you want, there is a chance of another go at it later this month.


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    #2969
    John.Icy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    I would not be surprised to see more Scandi blocking show up. I believe we are vaguely reliving a repeat of 2013 thus far weather wise in a sort of weird the worlds a simulation conspiracy (:pac::p). SSW at similar time in January (5th vs 6th, split vs. displacement though), cold snap ~15-25th January which fared better in the UK due to the often battleground synoptics (weak Greenland vs Scandi blocking, again very high level comparisons here), Atlantic making a brief comeback from the 26th of January though the presence of a decent Arctic high remained with a disrupted vortex. Had an almost Easterly in 2013 between 10-13th Feb from a brief Scandi high. Looks like we'll do one better this time round, a little earlier. Beyond that attempt in 2013 a stagnant Atlantic low out west sent some WAA towards Scandi again (another nearly there scenario). That isn't too dissimilar to some of the FI output appearing at the moment.

    gfs-0-192_ewt2.png

    Totally just for fun. Just a vague resemblance I've been watching since January. Wouldn't say no to a March 2013.


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    #2970
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,911 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Still no mention of snow risk along the South coast by Met Eireann this evening. Just East and North.
    Will it be a flawed forecast, I guess we just have to wait and see..But with winds southeast at times and -10 uppers there's a fair risk imo


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    #2971
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,699 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The CFS has suggested this possibility(a quite cold march) for quite a while. I did not want to ramp with that run i posted earlier, but it does suggest there could be more to come. Let see in the next few days if the scatter fades among the GFS members, that we see more trending cold. If so any springlike conditions could be shortlived!


This discussion has been closed.
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