2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths · 04-02-2021 11:25PM

Hubertj wrote: »

So what’s the answer? Is it a mystery? Or is it derelict units? Or student accommodation as someone else said? Did someone find a load of gaffs when on staycation during the summer? The suspense is killing me.

I am curious about what the answer is as well. I suspect it's derelict units be renovated.

I'd like to know what other posters think is the reason which is why I asked the question. All I know is Props thinks its the funds at work, and Timing Belt thinks I should be more careful about comparing different datasets!

hometruths · 04-02-2021 11:28PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I think you’re right that people will be shocked when this supply begins to hit the market.

In relation to the Irish housing shortage in 2013, here’s a link from 2013 titled: “Government called on to address housing shortage in Budget 2014”: https://www.thejournal.ie/threshold-pre-budget-2014-submission-1078664-Sep2013/

In relation to who bought them, the RTÉ documentary did a good analysis back in 2017:

“The Great Irish Sell-Off (Monday, RTÉ One, 9.35pm) comes to putting a face on the otherwise anonymous financial companies that now control 90,000 mortgages and €200 billion in property and business loans in the country.”

It’s still on the RTÉ player for people interested.

Link about RTÉ documentary in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/the-great-irish-sell-off-turning-the-spotlight-on-ireland-s-vulture-capitalists-1.2931597

That does surprise me that we've been talking about a housing shortage since 2013. I am definitely remember we had a surplus in 2012!

Timing belt · 04-02-2021 11:34PM

schmittel wrote: »

I am curious about what the answer is as well. I suspect it's derelict units be renovated.

I'd like to know what other posters think is the reason which is why I asked the question. All I know is Props thinks its the funds at work, and Timing Belt thinks I should be more careful about comparing different datasets!

The difference in housing stock in the geodirectory reports is as follows based on figure 1 on page 4 of both 2019 & 2020 reports

2020 2019 Difference
DETACHED 647,505 654,264 -6,759
SEMI-DETACHED 501,535 493,252 8,283
TERRACED 569,423 558,738 10,685
BUNGALOW 289,356 273,356 16,000
DUPLEX 25,220 25,508 -288
TEMPORARY-DWELLING 9,381 9,239 142

2,042,420 2,014,357 28,063

HansKroenke · 04-02-2021 11:36PM

Gradius wrote: »

An anecdotal thing, but surely a large proportion of the pup payment (perhaps largest) is simply being funnelled into property rent, no?

I know of several people, now out of work, receiving pandemic payment and it's in one hand from the government, and out the other hand to landlords. In Dublin anyway.

I fail to see a rationality for how property prices and rental prices are INcreasing during a global pandemic with more people out of work than ever before, and business essentially closed, struggling or altogether wiped out.

It reeks of artificial inflation, in my opinion. Perhaps mixed with some form of desperate speculation?

I'd like to hear other people's thoughts on this

There is a bubble in the property sector, inflated up by the State. That is evident and it is not just from the PUP.

hometruths · 04-02-2021 11:39PM

Timing belt wrote: »

The difference in housing stock in the geodirectory reports is as follows based on figure 1 on page 4 of both 2019 & 2020 reports

2020 2019 Difference
DETACHED 647,505 654,264 -6,759
SEMI-DETACHED 501,535 493,252 8,283
TERRACED 569,423 558,738 10,685
BUNGALOW 289,356 273,356 16,000
DUPLEX 25,220 25,508 -288
TEMPORARY-DWELLING 9,381 9,239 142

2,042,420 2,014,357 28,063

28,063. Who’d have thought it.

I wonder where the apartments are hiding?

Graham · 04-02-2021 11:41PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I think you’re right that people will be shocked when this supply begins to hit the market.

PropQueries wrote: »

Probably due to supply like these 47 apartments in Ballybofey (link below) that will be entering supply in 2021 but won’t be recorded in the new build statistics at the end of this year.

47 apartments, sold for around €1.5m. That's what, roughly €30k each.

That's suggests to me there's low demand in the area. I suspect any similar developments in high-demand areas have long since returned to market.

While you might well be correct that a few similar developments will return to market this year, I suspect they'll be in similar low demand areas otherwise they'd already been offloaded.

PropQueries · 04-02-2021 11:45PM

schmittel wrote: »

28,063. Who’d have thought it.

Good spot on the apartments.

But we also now have to figure out what is that 6,000 reduction in detached houses!

Timing belt · 04-02-2021 11:46PM

schmittel wrote: »

28,063. Who’d have thought it.

I wonder where the apartments are hiding?

They are reported separately and are not included in the figures you Quoted:

2020 2019 Difference
DETACHED 647,505 654,264 -6,759
SEMI-DETACHED 501,535 493,252 8,283
TERRACED 569,423 558,738 10,685
BUNGALOW 289,356 273,356 16,000
DUPLEX 25,220 25,508 -288
TEMPORARY-DWELLING 9,381 9,239 142

2,042,420 2,014,357 28,063

Apartments 191,996 185,523 6,473

2,234,416 2,199,880 34,536

New address added per Geo Directory 21,851

Unexplained difference in Geodirectory data 12,685

hometruths · 04-02-2021 11:51PM

Timing belt wrote: »

They are reported separately and are not included in the figures you Quoted:

2020 2019 Difference
DETACHED 647,505 654,264 -6,759
SEMI-DETACHED 501,535 493,252 8,283
TERRACED 569,423 558,738 10,685
BUNGALOW 289,356 273,356 16,000
DUPLEX 25,220 25,508 -288
TEMPORARY-DWELLING 9,381 9,239 142

2,042,420 2,014,357 28,063

Apartments 191,996 185,523 6,473

2,234,416 2,199,880 34,536

New address added per Geo Directory 21,851

Unexplained difference in Geodirectory data 12,685

Now we’ve increased the housing stock by 34.5k. If we keep this up we’ll have solved the housing crisis by midnight!

Are you sure your figures add up?

Timing belt · 04-02-2021 11:54PM

schmittel wrote: »

Now we’ve increased the housing stock by 34.5k. If we keep this up we’ll have solved the housing crisis by midnight!

Are you sure your figures add up?

I am sure you are able to read the report to check

Browney7 · 04-02-2021 11:54PM

Timing belt wrote: »

The difference in housing stock in the geodirectory reports is as follows based on figure 1 on page 4 of both 2019 & 2020 reports

2020 2019 Difference
DETACHED 647,505 654,264 -6,759
SEMI-DETACHED 501,535 493,252 8,283
TERRACED 569,423 558,738 10,685
BUNGALOW 289,356 273,356 16,000
DUPLEX 25,220 25,508 -288
TEMPORARY-DWELLING 9,381 9,239 142

2,042,420 2,014,357 28,063

16,000 bungalows??? Who's building bungalows in this day and age? Or are all the one off new build rural properties being classified as dormer bungalows?

Hubertj · 04-02-2021 11:56PM

schmittel wrote: »

I am curious about what the answer is as well. I suspect it's derelict units be renovated.

I'd like to know what other posters think is the reason which is why I asked the question. All I know is Props thinks its the funds at work, and Timing Belt thinks I should be more careful about comparing different datasets!

Does it show by county the additional units?

Graham · 04-02-2021 11:57PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Good spot on the apartments.

But we also now have to figure out what is that 6,000 reduction in detached houses!

Aren't somewhere between 5000 and 8000 properties lost each year to obsolescence?

Timing belt · 05-02-2021 12:01AM

Graham wrote: »

Aren't somewhere between 5000 and 8000 properties lost each year to obsolescence?

Prop does not think so....

Marius34 · 05-02-2021 12:02AM

Browney7 wrote: »

16,000 bungalows??? Who's building bungalows in this day and age? Or are all the one off new build rural properties being classified as dormer bungalows?

It's their database numbers/estimates, it doesn't really mean that it's a new supply.

hometruths · 05-02-2021 12:02AM

Graham wrote: »

Aren't somewhere between 5000 and 8000 properties lost each year to obsolescence?

Yep, that will explain the drop. but if there are 28k new units overall it suggests that Props was totally right in his assumptions that obsolescence has a negligible effect.

hometruths · 05-02-2021 12:04AM

Timing belt wrote: »

Prop does not think so....

If there is a net gain, obsolescence is meaningless.

A lot of this obsolescence will be older houses knocked to make way for multiple new ones.

Timing belt · 05-02-2021 12:04AM

schmittel wrote: »

Yep, that will explain the drop. but if there are 28k new units overall it suggests that Props was totally right in his assumptions that obsolescence has a negligible effect.

We don't know if these are new units as the report talks separately about new address points only being 21k.

Timing belt · 05-02-2021 12:06AM

schmittel wrote: »

If there is a net gain, obsolescence is meaningless.

A lot of this obsolescence will be older houses knocked to make way for multiple new ones.

If we are to use that logic then we need to exclude the new houses that are replacing them.:rolleyes:

hometruths · 05-02-2021 12:06AM

Marius34 wrote: »

It's their database numbers/estimates, it doesn't really mean that it's a new supply.

What does it mean then? Pre existing houses that the postman didn’t notice last year?

Graham · 05-02-2021 12:08AM

schmittel wrote: »

Yep, that will explain the drop. but if there are 28k new units overall it suggests that Props was totally right in his assumptions that obsolescence has a negligible effect.

It means we need to build 5000 - 8000 new properties every year just to stand still.

hometruths · 05-02-2021 12:09AM

Timing belt wrote: »

If we are to use that logic then we need to exclude the new houses that are replacing them.:rolleyes:

:rolleyes: indeed

Timing belt · 05-02-2021 12:14AM

schmittel wrote: »

:rolleyes: indeed

Its good that we all now agree that obsolescence exists and needs to be considered.

hometruths · 05-02-2021 12:16AM

Timing belt wrote: »

Its good that we all now agree that obsolescence exists and needs to be considered.

Ok, let’s consider it. How would you calculate the obsolescence rate?

Graham · 05-02-2021 12:17AM

schmittel wrote: »

Ok, let’s consider it. How would you calculate the obsolescence rate?

do tell

Timing belt · 05-02-2021 12:18AM

schmittel wrote: »

Now we’ve increased the housing stock by 34.5k. If we keep this up we’ll have solved the housing crisis by midnight!

Are you sure your figures add up?

I just read some of the detail in the report and it appears as if they do categorise apartments in the housing stock

Marius34 · 05-02-2021 12:18AM

schmittel wrote: »

What does it mean then? Pre existing houses that the postman didn’t notice last year?

I don't know. One thing I'm quite confident there was no 28K new housing stocks added in 2020.
Why do you use those numbers as a new housing stocks? would you use same numbers as a new housing stocks, if there would be difference only of 5K, between 2019 Q4 & 2020 Q4?

hometruths · 05-02-2021 12:19AM

Timing belt wrote: »

I just read some of the detail in the report and it appears as if they do categorise apartments in the housing stock

Who’d have thought it.

Timing belt · 05-02-2021 12:21AM

schmittel wrote: »

Who’d have thought it.

I know a housing report that does not have a category for apartments....

Timing belt · 05-02-2021 12:26AM

schmittel wrote: »

Ok, let’s consider it. How would you calculate the obsolescence rate?

You tell me...

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1