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2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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Comments

  • #2552
    fliball123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,612 ✭✭✭fliball123


    DataDude wrote: »
    I'm sure there is pent up demand. And everyone would like what you are implying to happen - i.e. for there to be a fundamental shift in our society which sees increasing numbers of 18-35 year old's getting out of their family home and buying a house sooner and thus leading to a greater demand for housing from that demographic, not due to growth in their absolute numbers but due to growth in the percentage of those people buying their own homes...Brave call

    https://publicpolicy.ie/papers/housing-in-ireland-changing-trends-in-headship-rates-and-tenure-by-age-group/#:~:text=This%20decline%20in%20home%20ownership,less%20than%2061%25%20in%202016.

    So I think the 20k + would be needed for the forseeable future at the very least. I mean I am sure a lot of people even after this link you have put up (data up to 2016)would of decided not to buy due to brexit which IMO is one of the reasons why we seen a slow down prior to 2020 but there is no data out there to prove that so its just my own opinion on it.


  • #2553
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    PropQueries wrote: »
    For example, it took us 20 years to get to today's understanding by the former governor of the central bank, where he looked at the data and came to the conclusion that:

    "Rankings that put Ireland as the most prosperous state in the European Union are wrong, former Central Bank governor Patrick Honohan says. Taking issue with headline economic data, he says the State’s position is more accurately somewhere between 8th and 12th among the EU-27."

    [/url]

    As anyone that's ever lived in a Nordic country will tell you of course they're wrong, just like when the whole world laughed at the leprechaun economics a few years back.

    Technocrats spinning with graphs can show all they like but lived experience tells me we're behind some of those countries.


  • #2554
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    DataDude wrote: »
    I'm sure there is pent up demand. And everyone would like what you are implying to happen - i.e. for there to be a fundamental shift in our society which sees increasing numbers of 18-35 year old's getting out of their family home and buying a house sooner and thus leading to a greater demand for housing from that demographic, not due to growth in their absolute numbers but due to growth in the percentage of those people buying their own homes...Brave call

    https://publicpolicy.ie/papers/housing-in-ireland-changing-trends-in-headship-rates-and-tenure-by-age-group/#:~:text=This%20decline%20in%20home%20ownership,less%20than%2061%25%20in%202016.

    No doubt there is pent up supply too. Very little discussion on this anywhere.


  • #2555
    DataDude
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭DataDude


    fliball123 wrote: »
    So I think the 20k + would be needed for the forseeable future at the very least. I mean I am sure a lot of people even after this link you have put up (data up to 2016)would of decided not to buy due to brexit which IMO is one of the reasons why we seen a slow down prior to 2020 but there is no data out there to prove that so its just my own opinion on it.

    Agreed on 20k+ (assuming continued migration, which is a fair assumption in the longer term although given we likely had much less this year I think the net shortfall for 2020/21 will be less than is being implied). Disagreed on latter point. I know I have just preached about how everyone on this forum is too certain about everything they say - but I'd be willing to stake a fairly chunky amount of money that two of the beliefs that you have implied:

    A) House prices will rise in the coming years
    B) Home ownership rates will increase in those under the age of 40 (and it was only falling due to concerns about Brexit??)

    Will not both come true. They are almost mutually exclusive.


  • #2556
    PropQueries
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    There is about 60-65k people in any yearly age group between 15 and 35 age group. The death rate is about 28-29k people per year. Net migration is about 33k/ year.

    Assuming that these trends continue and the only real variable is migration it means we need to provide housing for 65-70k people per year. Assuming a house to two people we need 35k units/ year. At 3 we need 23k units / year. Historicall people only bought houses when they formed relationships or were around the 40 age group. Nowadays people tend to want there own space earlier and form small household units.

    Minimum I see is 30k units per year


    Unless the net inward migration numbers actually reverse and turn negative in a big way. We have one of the highest number of eastern european populations as a percentage of our overall population in the EU. They're not here for the weather, so any reduction in job opportunities in e.g. retail, tourism, construction etc. and many will leave and leave quickly IMO

    I also assume many of the pre-covid projections for housing demand from the existing population going forward included demand from many of these immigrants already living here.

    According to the Economist magazine this week titled: How the pandemic reversed old migration patterns in Europe:

    "Exact numbers are hard to come by. An estimated 1.3m Romanians went back to Romania—equivalent to three times the population of its second-biggest city. Perhaps 500,000 Bulgarians returned to Bulgaria—a huge number for a country of 7m. Lithuania has seen more citizens arriving than leaving for the first time in years. Other measures show the same. In Warsaw, dating apps brim with returning Poles looking for socially un-distanced fun. Politicians in eastern Europe had long complained of a “brain drain” as their brightest left in search of higher wages in the west. Now the pandemic, a shifting economy and changing work patterns are bringing many of them back. A “brain gain” has begun."

    Link to economist article here: https://www.economist.com/europe/2021/01/30/how-the-pandemic-reversed-old-migration-patterns-in-europe


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  • #2557
    Browney7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,100 ✭✭✭Browney7


    schmittel wrote: »
    No doubt there is pent up supply too. Very little discussion on this anywhere.

    Would imagine so - landlords who may have wished to sell with tenants in situ being unable to sell as they can't evict for sale grounds.

    There is a slowdown in the property chain also due to Covid you'd expect - only data we have is that mortgage drawdowns for movers/trader uppers has dropped from 11349 in 2019 to 8911 in 2020 (so this reduction in activity has contributed to less properties being on the market).

    The impacts of Covid on the demand won't be felt evenly throughout the country and the CSO stats are bringing this out when the regional price indices are examined - Mid East price growth has been strong with Dublin flat for example.

    Hard to guage supply


  • #2558
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    Folks, is this waffle from SF or if we pass CETA could REIT's and funds sue Ireland over potential regulation or increased taxes?

    You want a tax on vulture funds? Sorry lads, we might get sued. How about stricter environmental regulations for large carbon emitters? Again apologies, we might lose in court.

    It should be clear that this will have a chilling effect on democracy at a time when many see a political establishment that is responsive to the desires of well-heeled corporate interests, but not the needs of ordinary citizens.

    The vote on Ceta will be the litmus test for the Greens. No party that considers itself democratic, let alone concerned for the environment, could possibly support its ratification.


    https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-40219565.html


  • #2559
    DataDude
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,593 ✭✭✭DataDude


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Why did you divide by 3 at the end?

    But, keep at it. It looks like a person would need several doctorates in statistics to make sense of all the data. But, my rule of thumb is that if something doesn't make sense, it most likely isn't, no matter what the data is currently telling us.

    For example, it took us 20 years to get to today's understanding by the former governor of the central bank, where he looked at the data and came to the conclusion that:

    "Rankings that put Ireland as the most prosperous state in the European Union are wrong, former Central Bank governor Patrick Honohan says. Taking issue with headline economic data, he says the State’s position is more accurately somewhere between 8th and 12th among the EU-27."

    Basically stating the obvious that every single non-statistics person in Ireland has been assuming for the past 20 years :)

    Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-economy-ranks-only-mid-table-in-eu-honohan-1.4476081

    Dividing by 3 at the end was just continuing with a previously made assumption of an average of 3 people per household (I understand the actual number is lower and falling). So 25k additional people "seeking houses" leads to a need for 25k/3 = 8.3k additional houses under that assumption.


  • #2560
    Saul Whispering Leper
    Posts: 13,106 ✭✭✭✭ Saul Whispering Leper


    I bought my house 2 years ago, it's in a fairly high demand area. A house further down the road that is virtually identical in layout, similar size (both houses have extensions), but definitely is finished nicer than the one we bought, is after going up on the market for over 25% more than the asking price for the house we bought. You could get my house up to the standard of that house for about a third of the gap in asking I reckon. I can't see for the life of me where the asking price is coming from. Can't wait to see what it sells for.


  • #2561
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    Folks, is this waffle from SF or if we pass CETA could REIT's and funds sue Ireland over potential regulation or increased taxes?





    https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-40219565.html

    I’d prefer to read a balanced objective analysis of the proposed agreement before deciding if I think it is a good idea or not. Sinn Fein don’t have any credibility. Question would be the circumstances under which an entity could take a case. I suspect this part of the treaty is being exaggerated by the usual suspects. Do the positive elements outweigh the possible negatives etc?


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  • #2562
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,045 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I’d prefer to read a balanced objective analysis of the proposed agreement before deciding if I think it is a good idea or not. Sinn Fein don’t have any credibility. Question would be the circumstances under which an entity could take a case. I suspect this part of the treaty is being exaggerated by the usual suspects. Do the positive elements outweigh the possible negatives etc?

    Once the benefits/negatives are debated and not put to a vote Christmas week when we were all concerned with Brexit, cause that's what was happening until some within the Greens kicked up a fuss.


  • #2563
    Timing belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    Data
    The point I was making on SSIA's was that most people doing them were savers. Savers do not rush out and spend straight away. Opinion at the time that it would all go into property was an incorrect assumption to make.

    Pandemic savings are accross the board. They are savings by both spenders and savers, therefore a higher percentage will get spend where is anyone's guess.

    You need to step back and ask why savings have increased during the pandemic and why this is the case globally. A lot of people assume it is because people do not have the opportunity to spend with the lockdowns which will contribute to the effect but I still think the main reason is that people are unsure of future events and how it will impact them financially and this is the reason for the increase in savings. This has been the case during every recession and in part contributes to the recession as when people save they stop spending which slows the economy down more.

    The 08 crisis came about because the financial system was drained of liquidity and came to a stop and then the house of cards started to fall. A similar event took place in march 2020 but the central banks stepped in and injected liquidity and got the system moving again but no-one has no idea for how long this will last.

    The economic forecasts are all for growth in the coming years once Covid is put to bed but there is no guarantee that this will be the case as the financial system is very fragile at the moment and it would not take a lot to have the house of cards crashing down again.

    My view on property is that we will see and increase in prices in the next 1-2 years as along as the financial system does not crash.... are house prices or rent levels sustainable at the level they are at is the important question because if you think they are then there is no crash in property coming if you think they are not sustainable then a crash is coming.

    In the mean time should you purchase a property all depends on your personal circumstances and whether you believe house prices are sustainable... For example if If you are paying high rent you may be financially better off buying even if the property value drops in a year or two.

    There is no one size fits all and any decision is personal and based on a risk/benefit analysis.


  • #2564
    Bubbaclaus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭Bubbaclaus


    So 20.6k properties built last year. Pretty close to estimates of 19.5-20k. Certainly higher than the 16k some posters were suggesting a few months back.

    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/news/home-building-survives-covid-but-still-cannot-match-buyers-demand-40053117.html


  • #2565
    PropQueries
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Looks like DCC may break all their previous records with a developer seeking up to €964k per two bed apartment from the council. Looking at the DCC track record to date, there’s a better than good chance he will receive it IMO

    “Johnny Ronan’s Ronan Group is planning to sell 101 apartments at an estimated cost of €66million for social housing to Dublin City Council as part of his plan to construct the two tallest buildings in the country.

    The planned package includes one two-bedroom apartment with an indicative cost of €964,030 to the council as part of the Ronan Group’s Waterfront South Central scheme for Dublin’s docklands.

    The estimated prices rise to €964,030 for a two-bedroom 86.6m2 unit, with one-bedroom apartments potentially costing the council a variety of prices ranging from €419,020 to €637,705.“

    Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ronan-plans-to-sell-960-000-apartment-to-council-for-social-housing-1.4476385


  • #2566
    Timing belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Looks like DCC may break all their previous records with a developer seeking up to €964k per two bed apartment from the council. Looking at the DCC track record to date, there’s a better than good chance he will receive it IMO

    “Johnny Ronan’s Ronan Group is planning to sell 101 apartments at an estimated cost of €66million for social housing to Dublin City Council as part of his plan to construct the two tallest buildings in the country.

    The planned package includes one two-bedroom apartment with an indicative cost of €964,030 to the council as part of the Ronan Group’s Waterfront South Central scheme for Dublin’s docklands.

    The estimated prices rise to €964,030 for a two-bedroom 86.6m2 unit, with one-bedroom apartments potentially costing the council a variety of prices ranging from €419,020 to €637,705.“

    Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ronan-plans-to-sell-960-000-apartment-to-council-for-social-housing-1.4476385

    Crazy if DCC pay this but I wouldn't be surprised if they did as this is what people are looking for high rise buildings that make Dublin look like a real city... There is a thread already dedicated to this:
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057992300&page=12

    542082.jpg


  • #2567
    mcsean2163
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Bruno Millions Geisha wrote: »
    Jesus wept.Heads need to roll if thar happens.

    If it goes ahead, it can't our ranking on the corruption index.


  • #2568
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Timing belt wrote: »
    My view on property is that we will see and increase in prices in the next 1-2 years as along as the financial system does not crash.... are house prices or rent levels sustainable at the level they are at is the important question because if you think they are then there is no crash in property coming if you think they are not sustainable then a crash is coming.

    House prices are sustainable at the current level if the taxpayer continues to be the buyer of last resort.

    If there is a change of mind in government, or a change of mind in the taxpayer, then the prices are not sustainable at current levels.


  • #2569
    Timing belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    schmittel wrote: »
    House prices are sustainable at the current level if the taxpayer continues to be the buyer of last resort.

    If there is a change of mind in government, or a change of mind in the taxpayer, then the prices are not sustainable at current levels.

    If the government stopped HAP or buying houses for social housing then that would have a major impact on the market and would see a large increase in homelessness something which I personally can't see the government or the tax payer agreeing to.


  • #2570
    Timing belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Breakdown of house completions for 2020 (Source: CSO)

    I was surprised to see that 47% of apartments built in Ireland were all in Carlow and not Dublin.


    Apartment Scheme house Single house Total
    Dublin (City Council) 1901 278 80 2259
    Kildare (County Council) 18 1477 168 1663
    South Dublin Co. Co. (County Council) 465 1110 39 1614
    Meath (County Council) 53 1134 325 1512
    Cork (County Council) 65 803 559 1427
    Fingal (County Council) 223 1080 82 1385
    Wicklow (County Council) 136 785 125 1046
    Cork (City Council) 157 819 56 1032
    Galway (County Council) 34 391 430 855
    Dun Laoire/Rathdown (County Council) 396 377 50 823
    Wexford (County Council) 33 317 274 624
    Louth (County Council) 26 478 114 618
    Donegal (County Council) 68 217 289 574
    Kerry (County Council) 55 294 225 574
    Limerick City and County 34 284 201 519
    Waterford City and County 53 297 129 479
    Mayo (County Council) 20 160 243 423
    Clare (County Council) 24 156 218 398
    Kilkenny (County Council) 39 197 145 381
    Laois (County Council) 26 189 119 334
    Tipperary County 22 107 187 316
    Westmeath (County Council) 20 147 126 293
    Monaghan (County Council) 23 72 127 222
    Galway (City Council) 32 156 18 206
    Cavan (County Council) 14 67 118 199
    Offaly (County Council) 2 72 123 197
    Carlow (County Council) 5 116 73 194
    Sligo (County Council) 56 42 81 179
    Roscommon (County Council) 5 48 118 171
    Longford (County Council) 9 54 59 122
    Leitrim (County Council) 0 1 36 37



  • #2571
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Timing belt wrote: »
    If the government stopped HAP or buying houses for social housing then that would have a major impact on the market and would see a large increase in homelessness something which I personally can't see the government or the tax payer agreeing to.

    Not suggesting they should abandon their social housing responsibilities.

    Just that they should be a bit more price sensitive. i.e if they see a developer is struggling to shift them on open market at X, no need for government to work off X as market rates.

    Also if developers cannot sell their houses at X because FTBers cannot afford X, I don't think the government should say don't worry, we will buy 30% of it at X so that you can afford it.

    The government is currently the buyer of last resort whatever way you look at it.


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  • #2572
    ongarite
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,531 ✭✭✭ongarite


    I'm amazed at the Wicklow figures.
    I know it's a county with strict planning laws but that's such a low number for a county right in the Dublin commuter belt.


  • #2573
    Timing belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    ongarite wrote: »
    I'm amazed at the Wicklow figures.
    I know it's a county with strict planning laws but that's such a low number for a county right in the Dublin commuter belt.

    Its also amazing that only 15% of housing units were built in Dublin especially seeing as this is where the majority of the population exists and where housing is required unless everyone moves down the country to WFH.


  • #2574
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Timing belt wrote: »
    Its also amazing that only 15% of housing units were built in Dublin especially seeing as this is where the majority of the population exists and where housing is required unless everyone moves down the country to WFH.

    Kind of logical if you accept that Dublin market was slowing down relative to the rest of the country in 2018/9, and developers were siting on unsold stock.


  • #2575
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Timing belt wrote: »
    Breakdown of house completions for 2020 (Source: CSO)

    I was surprised to see that 47% of apartments built in Ireland were all in Carlow and not Dublin.

    Something looks very off with those figures TB.


  • #2576
    Belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 152 ✭✭Belt


    ongarite wrote: »
    I'm amazed at the Wicklow figures.
    I know it's a county with strict planning laws but that's such a low number for a county right in the Dublin commuter belt.

    Same, with Meath it had less than Leitrim, 5 times less than Cavan and 7 times less than Carlow.

    Kildare also quite low at around 500. Why arent we building in areas where you would likely see demand?


  • #2577
    Timing belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Graham wrote: »
    Something looks very off with those figures TB.

    You are correct I went back and checked them and I obviously messed up sorting the data.. here is the revised data set....

    Dublin (City Council) 1901 278 80 2259
    Kildare (County Council) 18 1477 168 1663
    South Dublin Co. Co. (County Council) 465 1110 39 1614
    Meath (County Council) 53 1134 325 1512
    Cork (County Council) 65 803 559 1427
    Fingal (County Council) 223 1080 82 1385
    Wicklow (County Council) 136 785 125 1046
    Cork (City Council) 157 819 56 1032
    Galway (County Council) 34 391 430 855
    Dun Laoire/Rathdown (County Council) 396 377 50 823
    Wexford (County Council) 33 317 274 624
    Louth (County Council) 26 478 114 618
    Donegal (County Council) 68 217 289 574
    Kerry (County Council) 55 294 225 574
    Limerick City and County 34 284 201 519
    Waterford City and County 53 297 129 479
    Mayo (County Council) 20 160 243 423
    Clare (County Council) 24 156 218 398
    Kilkenny (County Council) 39 197 145 381
    Laois (County Council) 26 189 119 334
    Tipperary County 22 107 187 316
    Westmeath (County Council) 20 147 126 293
    Monaghan (County Council) 23 72 127 222
    Galway (City Council) 32 156 18 206
    Cavan (County Council) 14 67 118 199
    Offaly (County Council) 2 72 123 197
    Carlow (County Council) 5 116 73 194
    Sligo (County Council) 56 42 81 179
    Roscommon (County Council) 5 48 118 171
    Longford (County Council) 9 54 59 122
    Leitrim (County Council) 0 1 36 37


  • #2578
    Timing belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    ongarite wrote: »
    I'm amazed at the Wicklow figures.
    I know it's a county with strict planning laws but that's such a low number for a county right in the Dublin commuter belt.

    The data I shared first was incorrect I have updated it now... Wicklow had 1046
    housing units in 2020... Sorry


  • #2579
    Timing belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,619 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Belt wrote: »
    Same, with Meath it had less than Leitrim, 5 times less than Cavan and 7 times less than Carlow.

    Kildare also quite low at around 500. Why arent we building in areas where you would likely see demand?

    My error I have updated the data set now.... sorry


  • #2580
    PropQueries
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Timing belt wrote: »
    My error I have updated the data set now.... sorry

    You don’t work for the DCC housing department by any chance? :)


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  • #2581
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Timing belt wrote: »
    It doesn't seem logical to me... but hey what do I know there must be a demand in Carlow to build 47% of the countries apartments there and it's not just a case of Dublin Spreading out further and further into the country side with people commuting longer distances... At least they have the M9/M7 to get them into Dublin quickly if that is where the work is and they can't work from home.

    When you put it like that I agree it does not seem logical.

    Hadn't actually looked at your figures too closely, but as it turns out neither had you.


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